What are people's thoughts regarding Gold/Silver investing for 2016. All the news tends to indicate a slowdown in the economy and markets generally, so should we all be looking to Gold in these uncertain times.
Thoughts?
If you watch the spot price daily, (as I do), you'll notice that it's shot up lately to £750 a Troy ounce but a month or so back it was down to early £700s. If you were looking to invest I would have thought then was the time. In my opinion it will drop further over the next few years so if your comfortable at todays price id dip your toe and monitor and jump in and out as and when the spot price dictates favourably.
Just to add £750 isn't a bad price to get involved, I invested a fair bit at £800 an ounce and some at £750 an ounce and also £700 an ounce. Il only be buying more if it goes back down again to sub £700. My upper limit is £800 an ounce and il buy all the way down as far down as it goes (if the price does drop that much that is). I'd advise physical gold, kruggerands, sovereigns etc. Good luck
Good price to get in IMHO, look at how much gold & silver have fallen in the last 4-ish years - at this point the downside risk is a lot less. That's not to say this is the bottom but people who try to catch the absolute bottom are missing the point, a general direction upwards is likely now (hopefully!)
I think once the economy picks up a bit better then gold will continue its fall. I can't see it gaining much more in the short term. I believe the current rally has been to the poor performing stock market and China's slowing economy, it's made people jittery and people have taken a safe haven in the yellow stuff. Once things settle down maybe this year or next and the world economies start picking up people will leave gold again and go back into the higher risk returns such as the stock markets and then I see gold going down probably a bit more than the most recent low of around £700. Ideally I'd like it to go as low as possible so I can buy as much as possible. Records will always be broken, so one day the gold price will go through the roof and break the current high. When that will be no one knows but I'd sure like a bag of krugerrands when it does happen
I guess that depends on how much confidence you have in the markets and the politicians.Originally Posted by Yeti
I wouldn't say 'once' the economy picks up, more 'if'...
Sure history suggests its cycles, but it could be we're nowhere near the bottom yet, just bobbing along a temporary crest...
M
Long term you'll make some money, but not if you're wanting to get in and out in 2016.
It comes in peaks and troughs gold, and we're in a trough!Analysts reckon 2019 is the next decent bump.
EDIT. Silver is quite safe. 20-odd pence a gram and it really can't go any lower than that!
Last edited by kevkojak; 15th January 2016 at 16:39.
Yes but if you want to buy silver physically, in the uk it incurs VAT.
The truth is no one knows what will happen with precious metals.
It's a gamble.
I would forget silver. Gold, IMO, will fall more. However so will the GBP. The price is set in USD so it might stay put overall. Personally I would wait for the EU referendum before committing some serious money. If you are only talking about buying a couple of krugerrand then it really doesn't matter that much. If you want to speculate short term in the market it is anyone's guess.
Political instability has meant nothing for gold price for a while, look at Putin in Crimea, IS and Siria, prices kept falling during all those crisis.
It's a gamble either way. I was also thinking of investing in She'll who look reasonable value at the moment. Silver is more interesting as it is going usage in all sorts of things now and the demand for this will continue to rise, so Silver and black stuff with Shell maybe my punt.
"Gold is money, everything else is debt" -J P Morgan (the original not the corrupt entity ran by Jamie Dimon.
Gold is insurance against financial calamity and the ultimate value of fiat currency, zero. It's a hedge. If you're going to buy then make sure you have it in your hand. There are allocated accounts available but if the (zombie) apocalypse does happen who's gonna open up in an orderly manner?
What tiny73 said ^
As warren buffet once said about his investing strategy "buy cheap and sell high". Simple lol. You just have to ask yourself is gold cheap at the minute?
Krugerrands are only a little higher than they were at the bottom of the recession. I've been watching them infrequently since about 2006. I bought some as low as £700, they peaked at just under £1150. They're currently just over £800 I think. I'm tempted to buy a few more, but if they ever get to £1000 again, I'll cash in.
Oh, and whilst I agree it's still a slight gamble, gold will always be gold. Stocks and shares will always be virtual, they can disappear completely.
Last edited by demonloop; 15th January 2016 at 22:00.
Any recommendation where to get Kruggerands
Last edited by Dr.f; 15th January 2016 at 21:34.
These what? Bullions? Atkinson the jeweller. Or bard and co.
coininvest.com for my purchases. Good prices, not too far above spot and excellent service.
Another vote for Atkinson - excellent prices and service. No fancy presentation boxes and sales waffle you just need the shiny stuff!
www.atkinsonsbullion.com
Gold doesn't earn a return, it's purely a defensive investment. My personal view would be to stick with equities if you are a long-term investor. The oil price collapse is good for the world economy in the long run, wait for the prices to fall and treat that as an ideal buying opportunity. Yields on equities are very attractive at the moment. The yield on gold is a big fat zero.
Atkinson is cheaper.
Bullion by post are well regarded.
Guys I frequent a few precious metal forums. For ease of use and out and out value, by far the best value website is "Hatton garden metals". its common knowledge for kruggerands, sovereigns etc you really can't beat their prices. 3% over spot for krugerrands if buying one but that drops to 2% over spot if buying over 5 or 10 if I recall correctly.
I recently managed to buy some platinum coins which are very nice. Especially when I bought them at a spot price of about £550 which is stupidly low compared to gold right now. I'd say there's a lot of scope for platinum to hit £1000k an ounce as historically platinum was more expensive than gold...
Atkinson is still cheaper. And they are a well established brick and mortar jewellery shop also.
BTW no affiliation whatsoever, just a satisfied customer.
Yes but gold is historically high in a recession as people flock to gold as a safe haven. For us investors in gold we ideally want to buy when the economy is booming and gold is cheap.
You are right. Not much choice or stock at the moment tho. However cheapest out there it seems.
You have to pay VAT on platinum tho, right?
Any pictures of the coins?
Some experts here.
I might learn something ;)
Every time I sell a kilo I'm on the wrong side of it!! Please let me know when is a good date/year to sell.
Last edited by alexaff; 15th January 2016 at 22:36.
The platinum coins are very nice to hold...
Very nice!
The platinum coins are very nice to hold...
Am I right about the VAT?
And, in an Oliver Twist voice, would you sell me one at £550?
Yes and no!
Yes, unfortunately platinum carries vat in the uk but even with 20% tax, platinum is still cheap compared to gold at the moment! As for selling you a coin, my friend, the place I bought these from see maybe a dozen platinum coins a year, so you can see how rarely they come along! Plus, these are birth year coins for me, would be sacrilege to let one go! 😂
Fair enough. Just in case you feel sacrilegious remember me ;-)Yes and no!
Yes, unfortunately platinum carries vat in the uk but even with 20% tax, platinum is still cheap compared to gold at the moment! As for selling you a coin, my friend, the place I bought these from see maybe a dozen platinum coins a year, so you can see how rarely they come along! Plus, these are birth year coins for me, would be sacrilege to let one go!
Thanks for the photo!
Gold doesn't fall or rise in value, but the currency it's quoted in moves. Gold has recently rallied in spite of dollar strength and let's be honest, with all the debt in the world at present the dollar is simply the least sh*tty. The dollars strength comes from the petrodollar, without that demand and ability to print money the US is in no better financial shape than Greece.
The oil price collapse is an indicator of a slowing economy, supply is significantly outstripping demand, it's anything but good for the world economy. Baltic dry shipping rates are collapsing, Saudi Arabia is likely to break its dollar peg to stave off its deficit from the collapsing oil price (possibly signalling the end of the petrodollar) and shale drilling credit is falling through the floor as are the number of active rigs. Seven years of cheap money have just inflated different bubbles (sub-prime auto loans for example, student loans. The list goes on). Some day the music will stop, as witnessed by most of the S&P 500 being in a bear market ( measured as being more than 20% from their high). It's only the FANG (Facebook, Netflix, Amazon and Google/alphabet) stocks holding the S&P above anywhere near its true value.
In these times its gold and silver that will preserve your wealth. Not equities. All IMHO of course.
Last edited by tiny73; 15th January 2016 at 23:30.
I certainly agree that in the short term the oil price collapse is not good, especially for those countries that rely on oil exports. But the price crash is mainly driven by a lack of buyers and doesn't reflect the global fundamentals IMO. Oil price shocks (upwards) have usually been associated with bad news - and high oil prices harm growth .Tim Morgan explains this well here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/201...t-Storm-LR.pdf. I still think that in the long run cheap oil is good for the global economy. Equities are already yielding above most other asset classes and a slump in prices means even better yields. There is a case to be made to stick with equities if you have them (don't sell when they are low) and to buy more at the bottom.
Equities are "rolling over". Hmm....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-%E2%80%93-ubs
An interesting article here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-has-come-halt
I think this is the case. Back in August 2014 (and before) I was saying that I thought gold was under-valued give the world situation. The fundamentals that made me say this have only got worse since then and it would seem that people are now beginning to agree, especially since the new year. We're heading for some sort of crash although I'm still not sure what it will look like. It's very confusing.
Last edited by markrlondon; 16th January 2016 at 02:01.
Likewise! Mike Atkinson is one of the most reputable guys I have ever dealt with.
interesting thread , when you decide to sell where do you sell to get the best price,
It depends what you have. Jewellery or bullion? I haven't sold since 2011 so I'm not sure. It'll be interesting to hear opinions.
with regards to physical investing in gold, I heard that the real pinch is when you want to sell the things, as the bids you are shown are usually much lower than the market, even if the offers you buy at are reasonably close to value?
On the oil side as mentioned further above, I would not want exposure to producers. SHell, BP etc are all off my radar, even though from a technical point of view i'd like to buy BP, (or Glencore for that matter), I cant see their revenue from the sale of their respective commodities rising any time soon. Costs aren't changeable, and it is only in a few small places in the world where production costs are less than what they are able to sell a barrel of oil for.
Brent futures- the European and to an extent global oil benchmark are a light sweet crude which is reasonably in demand as it can produce a lot of high margin gasoline and distillates. But most other physical crudes around the world contain less favourable mixes of hydrocarbons, which means the physical crudes in the canadian oil sands, russian arctic, and similar sell at a discount to where the benchmark price is (called the differential). The differential for the really gunky stuff in canada is -$15 to spot. That means as the benckmark over there is currently $31 a barrel, this canadian stuff is only being sold for something like $16 a barrel.
Some or the russian production is being pumped at a loss already, the reason being that if they cease production at one of the wells, it literally freezes or something and takes several months to defrost and get going again in summer. They would rather keep pumping and hope the price rises, rather than risk abandoning it for several months.
I think equities are currently oversold, with the FTSE 250 bieng dragged down by the overly commodities exposed 100. If the 100 doesnt drop further, I think i'll pick a few more 250 firms up, as it could start to retrace from its fall from 7100. it is currently on a support point it bounced off on fridays session. If is drops through the 5768 point it bounced up from on friday, which was also the low a few months back, i'll get out of some of my longs, as i think more carnage awaits!
I get 1% below spot but that's dealing in large quantities.
I know Hatton garden metals have bought coins back at up to 100% of spot price, depends on the market but your probably looking at a couple or a few percent under spot if you wanted to cash in your gold.
Nice article on low oil prices and energy companies. Suggests the pain is yet to come...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ot-force-shale
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