Reply With QuoteAre you talking about Lloyds? So do you mean up 4.2% on the day or do you actually mean that you are up 42%? If so your entry point was around 27p and was very well timed.Originally Posted by Justin Case
It's probably fair to say that some of the bankers should have had more punishment than simply losing their jobs. A very few saw prison.
The comment about unlimited liability was not a serious suggestion but to highlight an option; Lloyds names carry unlimited liability on their positions in the insurance markets.
If bank shareholders carried a similar liability I'm sure you would see banks acting in a much more prudent manor ... which would probably cripple liquidity and the economy.
The comments were more aimed at some of the comments attempting to support the role of Bitcoin as an alternative to the big bad banks ...
Anyway ... I'm still happy to hold banking stocks as part of my investments and I won't be touching any of the current crop of cryptos.
Last edited by Montello; 15th February 2021 at 12:33.
Are you talking about Lloyds? So do you mean up 4.2% on the day or do you actually mean that you are up 42%? If so your entry point was around 27p and was very well timed.
Yes. 26.19 at the start of August. Just looked again and it’s now +45%. Quite a good day generally but these are for holding a few months yet I think.
Menzies is 69% up from purchase but was over 100% not so long ago, just shows the volatility.
I see NGHT made it onto reddit.....
For those wanting an exposure to the wider blockchain tech market. There is a fund (ETF) called BLOK which is invested in about 60 of the blockchain companies, like RIOT, MARA, ARB and Microstrategy.
It ought to continue to perform steadily even if the price of crypto takes a dive as the whole blockchain world is certainly one that's here to stay and growing.
https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/Funds...mGBam1kTsU&r=1
It is also available on HL and the main platforms.
Last edited by mr noble; 15th February 2021 at 13:45.
Ahaa.
That sounds more like wishful thinking than analysis as most of those companies are trading at a substantial premium to the value of their crypto holdings. Difficult to maintain that if and when crypto takes a dive.
As always, it depends what you expect to happen - but if you think a drop is imminent I would certainly not buy the fund now.
Edit: just looked again and this is a fund bundling together adopters, ending up with danish shipping company Maersk and microchip manufacturers Xilinx and Micron Tech being their largest positions. I cannot find info if and how much the fund has invested into the crypto companies you mentioned (RIOT, MARA, ARB and Microstrategy).
In any case, the main exposure to blockchain that this fund provides is not by owning crypto currencies but by buying into companies that are adopting blockchain technology in their internal processes.
Last edited by Raffe; 15th February 2021 at 14:16.
Now, now Raffe who needs logic when there's FOMO and sticking it too the man.
I have not bought any and don't intend to.
Thought it was interesting to find a blockchain fund.
It was a news story recommendation on the MarketWatch app.
The other one is "BOTZ" which is an AI and future tech fund....probably the safer bet of the two, but not available on HL. (Which is getting to be a common and frustrating theme...)
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/botz/
Yes. I thought that was what I said originally? It is a fund investing in blockchain tech.
After a couple of minutes thinking Yahoo and other stock websites were down.....I realise it's a bank holiday in the USA today.
And I had downed tools and rushed home for 14:30.......doh.
Footsie rampant, Reddit kids piling into tracker pensions for when they get older. Probably not
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Ah that's why, I did the same thing thinking why nothing was changing.
I don't think investing into any of their top five holdings Xilinx, Micron Technology, A.P. Moeller-Maersk, Honeywell or Taiwan Semi means that you are investing in blockchain technology. You are investing into a company which is applying blockchain with some of their internal processes (Maersk, Honeywell) or are building semiconductors which are used in crypto mining and blockchain building. A lot of that is marginal at best in terms of contribution to their success today - to be determined if it one day will be substantial.
This is a bit like an ESG fund. Feels good to have it in the portfolio but what difference it will make to your future portfolio returns is depending on what you have chosen to believe.
Totally agree bought at 26ishp (daughter bought at 25ishp)hoping for 50p went up to 40ishp not so long ago I’m holding out very nice earner now (already cashed and sold once) but at 50p+ that would be amazing
The strengthening GBP is having a negative effect on many stocks priced in USD.
Would have been a fabulous couple of days if it weren't for the USD-GBP working against us.
SMT gains were all but neutralised for me by Gold/Silver ETCs priced in USD.
If you want an AI tech fund on HL you could try Wisdom Tree Artificial Intelligence ETF (INTL). I got into it a few months before COVID because I have a tech background and thought this area of tech, and the companies in the fund, would be a good long term bet. It’s up 90% since then, hyped no doubt but also because the generational change in attitudes towards tech in business has been accelerated by about five years due to Covid.
Absolutely not a recommendation, I know a lot more about technology than I do about investing.
Good shout Alfa, I'll take a look. Thanks.
Like the ticker name!
My best fund by an absolute mile has been the Smith & Williamson Artificial Intelligence fund
Has around half in the US, with sectors relatively well diversified from beyond software and hardware into retail, consumer goods etc
Do your own research etc
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Agree with above, but another one of mine in addition to S&W is Polar Capital Tech through HL which is running at 20% higher than that. DYOR etc but has been a star in '20.
A mate of mine invested £2k in Argo Blockchain a few weeks ago, sold a week or so later at £600 profit, with the last couple of days rises he would have done over £3k in profit, anyone else here in Argo??
FTSE futures fading , Nikkei fading , music is stopping
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SP500 at all-time high. Russell at all-time high. Nikkei at 30 year high. Dax at all-time high. FTSE close to one-year high.
Plenty of music playing.
Not saying that we won't have a correction, but might as well see a lot higher first.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Yes I should have added a question mark at the end
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It sounded like wishful thinking....
There are plenty of arguments for either side. I try to remain neutral and not fall into the trap of entering an unfounded bias. That has cost me plenty earlier.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Feels like a time to spend a few quid on luxuries that's for sure
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Given it’s impossible to call the markets how do people feel about trend following algorithms?
Trend following algos are a proper tool, but beware they are often failing and it is exactly when trends are broken that some of the biggest and quickest moves happen. That is why many of the chartists are focusing on trend breaks rather than trend following.
There is just no universal best way of doing things...
Found a nice example of blockchain tech (this is from a December 2019 investor presentation, with the help of McKinsey):
Not saying your fund is prone to investing in fraudulent companies such as Wirecard - my point is you can dress up any kind of b/s as blockchain tech.
And it's up....all good, going to spend some profits
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Yup, I'm in. Also in a few others doing well this year.
https://www.stockopedia.com/challeng...trant/1305334/
My picks currently #60 out of 3200+. Should go higher after Avacta's good news today.
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I'm trying something out. Bought Argo at 8am this am and will sell at 1.59 pm. I've seen that seems to correspond with BTC peaks when the market is open in the UK (there are further peaks in US hours but I won't leave any BTC fund open when I can't liquidate at will). Will try every day for a week. Already up 25% this am.
Last edited by ryanb741; 16th February 2021 at 11:43.
Argo are doing well at the moment, think you’ll do very well today
Interesting strategy. Since beginning of February, it would have given you a cumulative performance of about 20% - versus a 149% performance of just buying Argo on 1 February and holding it until yesterday's close.
Yeah it was a typo it should have been 1.59 pm
Key thing is with all the volatility I don't want to leave the position open when the markets are closed.Interesting strategy. Since beginning of February, it would have given you a cumulative performance of about 20% - versus a 149% performance of just buying Argo on 1 February and holding it until yesterday's close.
Most of your returns happen when the market is closed. That was my point.
Selling at 11:59 or 13:59 won't make much difference on the return profile when the stock repeatedly gapped at the open and that was the reason for the overall returns.
Here is what happens if I do exactly the opposite of what you proposed: I buy at 11:59h and sell the next morning at 8:00h:
Last edited by Raffe; 16th February 2021 at 12:09.
What you say makes total sense, however my overriding priority is to make margin in the least risky way even if it means lower absolute returns. Whilst leaving the stock overnight has been more profitable by far, one day BTC will drop from 53k to 35k overnight and all those gains are kaboom. Whereas intraday trading if it looks like the sh*t is hitting the fan I have a S/L in place.
Most of your returns happen when the market is closed. That was my point.
Selling at 11:59 or 13:59 won't make much difference on the return profile when the stock repeatedly gapped at the open and that was the reason for the overall returns.
Here is what happens if I do exactly the opposite of what you proposed: I buy at 11:59h and sell the next morning at 8:00h:
Raffe.. How about you set up a TZ hedge fund with 10% of each investors annual profits going to the fundraiser, that would make a great thread!Most of your returns happen when the market is closed. That was my point.
Selling at 11:59 or 13:59 won't make much difference on the return profile when the stock repeatedly gapped at the open and that was the reason for the overall returns.
Here is what happens if I do exactly the opposite of what you proposed: I buy at 11:59h and sell the next morning at 8:00h:
I know this topic has tended to focus on trading and hot stocks but hopefully some are interested in long tern boring investment.
This book is one of my favourite investment books and fits pretty well with how I have been investing for the last 30 years ...
https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/How-to-...ook/1473695333
The guy that wrote it has created this fund: https://plainenglishfinance.co.uk/funds it is highly diversified and uses trend following to minimise exposure to crashes...
So far the performance has been zero but in principal this appeals to me as a defensive asset in preference to bonds; anyone else read the book or seen the fund; or have opinions?
No mention of this fund on wallstreetbets so I'm out bro.
There is nothing new about this idea - CTA or Systematic futures funds have been around for well over 20 years and there are a number of funds with long track record that you can buy.
I have been involved in one of them in an earlier part of my career, certainly an interesting experience.
The fund was launched in 2007 and returned 40% during the global financial crisis (red circle in the chart below), obviously a spectacular run which has resulted in an even more spectacular inflow and the fund had almost $2bln assets under management within 18 months. However, it was difficult to catch good trends in some periods that followed, which led to sideways or even negative returns for prolonged periods of time:
An interesting approach to have less correlation in the portfolio, but please do not buy for all of your assets. We tested this in a portfolio context and found that it adds return and stability to a mixed portfolio if you invest some 10% to 20% of your assets into a CTA. If you compare the performance between different CTA funds, you will find that they usually all perform or underperform at the same time, high correlation between the different funds.
You can find different CTA funds if you go to Morningstar.co.uk and screen for Alt- Systematic futures funds as category:
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/scr...&sortOrder=asc
Sold out of Argo for a 27% return on the day, not bad for 5 hours holding. Am expecting a dip when the US markets open so let's see, in which case I will get some more and sell before close, else rinse and repeat tomorrow
What this fund does is implement the book as a fund.There is nothing new about this idea - CTA or Systematic futures funds have been around for well over 20 years and there are a number of funds with long track record that you can buy.
I have been involved in one of them in an earlier part of my career, certainly an interesting experience.
The fund was launched in 2007 and returned 40% during the global financial crisis (red circle in the chart below), obviously a spectacular run which has resulted in an even more spectacular inflow and the fund had almost $2bln assets under management within 18 months. However, it was difficult to catch good trends in some periods that followed, which led to sideways or even negative returns for prolonged periods of time:
An interesting approach to have less correlation in the portfolio, but please do not buy for all of your assets. We tested this in a portfolio context and found that it adds return and stability to a mixed portfolio if you invest some 10% to 20% of your assets into a CTA. If you compare the performance between different CTA funds, you will find that they usually all perform or underperform at the same time, high correlation between the different funds.
It holds 24 silos of investment detailed on page 44 here https://pef-fund-docs.s3.amazonaws.c...d-Overview.pdf
This provides the diversification of asset class and geography.
It then trades in/out or holds those silos based on a pre-set trend following algorithm.
Objective to minimise any capital loss and to catch some positive momentum when available ... giving safe slow growth ... looks like a reasonable option for the defensive proportion of my portfolio in place of bonds.
Yes, and I was saying there are hundreds of funds doing the same, the strategy has been around since decades. There is absolutely nothing new nor original with what your man suggests.
The fund which chart I was showing above does exactly the same, trading in like 25 different futures long and short and trying to capture trends. but sometimes it doesn't work out, as every trade and reversal costs a small loss.
Any what I said is that - if well executed - such a strategy can indeed be a valid portfolio component as part-replacement of fixed income. But beware, some of the CTAs have high correlation with equities. I would never invest into a CTA without a track record. There are plenty of funds available that have a proven track record, no need to give an upstart their first playing money.
Edit: just checked and the fund indeed has a three year track record - however failed spectacularly during the spring 2020 sell-off. Exactly in those times you need a CTA to provide performance rather than drawdown, otherwise it provides no benefit in your portfolio.
Last edited by Raffe; 16th February 2021 at 15:27.
Why do you say that?
Seems during Feb - April 2020 they lost a few % compared to big market drops ... isn't that the trend following working by converting to cash during that period?
Page 38 https://pef-fund-docs.s3.amazonaws.c...d-Overview.pdf
Or are you saying their algorithms were too slow to catch some of the recovery?
Note: This isn't a CTA fund; it holds assets its not a construct built on futures. I think you may have misunderstood what this fund is.
Last edited by Montello; 16th February 2021 at 15:38.
10 year Treasuries still on the march. Now close to where it was before the March 2020 crash.
Dollar strengthening. Gold suffering as a result.
All a recipe to reduce stock prices, especially high growth stocks. But how have the markets reacted? Of course they've gone higher.
If the 10 year treasuries carry on the way they are going, it will be like boiling a frog.
Nice trading Ryan :)
The modest bet on Platinum ETCs I mentioned earlier in this thread seems to have come good. A bit more of a wild ride than I’d usually be comfortable with though!
+1. Good job.
I'd imagine ARB won't continue it's march day after day though!
Sadly my play on MicroStrategy isn't having the same uplifts.
Michael Saylor announced they're buying another $600m of BTC (via a convertible notes private offering) which I'd have thought would have made the stock jump up on open......but nothing.
:-(
Where's the top for TIGR? Up almost 30% from the 4th Feb.
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