If I was Raffe, I would methodically go back through your back posts for 18 months and cross reference. But, I can’t be arsed and will take you at your word.
Probably a good move when you sold one investment property at the turn of the year. You can always buy back in a bit cheaper.
To be pedantic, we were talking about when rates would peak and when they’d start being cut. So I was right in that paragraph above.
But yes, you win a point for the fact rates have gone a bit higher than I thought they would.
If we look back in 5 years, they will have a brief pop over 5% and then straight back down again.
Are you Raffe?
i think sellers are coming round to the fact that the covid boom is well and truly over, seen a few properties that have come on at reasonable prices which leads me to believe so. Still couldn't afford it with the IR at the current rate but some signs of hope.
According to Rightmove average price reductions of around 6 percent...According to my sister, working for an EA in Banbury, 5 to 10 percent price reductions and sales volume down by around 30 per cent , round that way. Obvs considerable geographic variance.
Last edited by Passenger; 18th September 2023 at 09:46.
Minimum EPC levels now scrapped. Epically good news for landlords like myself with properties sat in 'D' band.
Markets are expecting one more interest rate hike this month then dropping from May 24.
It's on the BBC website, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-66863110
I wonder how many landlords based their decision to sell on the issue of getting the property up to a C band?
I bet there are lots who will be cursing right now.
So you are already convinced u-turning on rules is indefinite?
Interesting, sounds like desperation.
According to the BBC yesterday, average prices rose around 1% in the year to July.
Was the 14th consecutive rate rise the last?
Certainly looks that way.
Peak at 5.25, when are we predicting the first cut will happen?
I'd concur with that outlook.
The reality is that the sands are shifting daily and it's too early to call any downward trend of inflation and the resultant BoE base rate. I'd personally see "maybe" one more 0.25% increase to 5.5% for Q4 '23 and only into Q1 '24, if inflation makes any continuous downward trend by then, do we start to see any steady base rate drops.
But I'll take this decision today as a modicum of good news.
With the Government boot still firmly on the throat of private landlords, prices trending down, high mortgage rates and Labour Government not much more than 12 months away, I am sure many who got out at the top will still consider themselves the smart ones.
After all they can always buy in the same price or cheaper even with all the fees.
The EPC issue appears to be mostly noise. If the free market Tories can whack landlords around the head, just think what Labour could do.
Another positive sign was the two-year swap rate – a key measure lenders use to determine the cost of mortgage borrowing – dropped below 5% on Friday morning. “A nice end to the week, and potentially a positive Monday expected with further rate changes,” Mendes added.
Debt market still creeping higher. Expect the temporary nudge down in rates to reverse.
Gilt yields hit their highest mark since Liz Truss mini-budget fallout
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...b646359abca670
Yet property still goes up, still no 30% crash.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infla...index/july2023
No 30% yet, but property ain’t going up whatever that link says.
I reckon houses are easily down by 10% in my area, with flats up to 20% off Covid highs.
Flats were offers over during Covid, now plenty are 10-15% reduced on Zoopla and that is before offers.
Remember ridiculously high house prices are only good for those downsizing and BTLers.
I wouldn’t expect any property investor to talk the market down.
Core inflation is still the issue. Yes, headline inflation is coming down which may even allow Sunak to say it has halved by the end of the year, but mainly as a result of falling goods prices procured outside the UK economy that are not directly connected to BOE decisions aside from slight exchange rate plays. Most analysts believe we are some time away from any base rate falls and a recession will commence in Q1 2024, then rates may need moderating late 24/early 25 to try to kick start growth. Increasing wage costs continues to fuel core inflation and that circle is not going to be broken easily with half the country seemingly striking for large pay increases.
As for any "data" showing house price increases that's laughable, as I've said before it's full of method error. Plenty of tough times still ahead, keep tin hats to hand.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ds-oil-latest/
Prices now down just 4.7% YOY.
I’m a perma-bull but am actually surprised at how well prices are holding up!
Last edited by mr noble; 6th October 2023 at 07:39.
Over here house prices overall up for a second quarter in a row.
Until we see a serious house building program, that is more than 250,000 per year the shortage will remain.
We all know what a shortage in supply means.
We’ve got a shortage of 400.000 houses om 18 mio people. Net Growth population by 200.000 people annually. That shortage problem isn’t going to be solved in my life (ever).