Corona property prices

[gunner]

That’s the same as any asset, a thin trade sets the price. True of all stocks and shares etc

Not the same as any asset. Share indices yes, because all shares in a stock are identical, but commercial property indices are based on the valuation movement of all assets in the measured universe, not just the transactions.

I’m not sure what definitive would mean in this context but the HPI from the ONS is what it is, an average indicator of house sales. It’s a board indicator of the UK market. Of course much regional variation and the lag due to the sales times.

Apologies, I meant definitive in terms of wider market movement. It is of course a perfectly good reflection of the transactions that happen to have taken place.

[thegreatdogwood]

Please explain as I don’t understand your points, what parts of the ONS methodology is in error?

I have noted the lag between the data on sales and the current market and asking prices / offers but that’s unavoidable.

Any "index" is as useful as the voracity of data that it uses, in terms of accuracy of data and most importantly sample representation. LR can take details of transactions that have concluded but there is no quality control in terms of the individual characteristics of each deal. So at a micro level Property A is bought for £400k and sold for £440k one year later, that's a 10% price increase.......or is it if the person selling on had spent say £50k adding an extension which would have made it worth £450k at the the time they bought it so in real terms it has depreciated by £10k....

At a macro level the "sample" being analysed is an ever changing basket of properties, never like for like. It is an imperfect market, at any point in time there is a low amount of actual data available and that is all nuanced. So bravo that they have a go at producing an output to tell a story, but by it's very nature, it is an approximation, where they have sought to evolve a technique to provide as accurate a fit as possible analysing historic data and trends. Very different to a lot of stuff ONS produces which has robust data sources and is fully measurable. Statistically, they can confidently represent the data as the average price of a house sold (clearly of little benefit given the basket of properties is always unique) but it's the leap to trying to turn that into a proxy for the average value of all housing stock and in turn an index which has method error, no different to say a MORI poll where you ask a relatively small sample of people who they will vote for but when it comes to actual election day, the results are rarely the same as predicted!

[Montello]

So at a micro level Property A is bought for £400k and sold for £440k one year later, that's a 10% price increase.......or is it if the person selling on had spent say £50k adding an extension which would have made it worth £450k at the the time they bought it so in real terms it has depreciated by £10k....

Obviously true but given there are something like 30,000 sales per month do you really think that someone adding an extension is really going to skew the index in any significant way or do you think it's likely that all 30,000 built extensions? What about the bloke who painted his house lime green or added stone cladding who knocked thousands off the price.... given the number of transactions it will even out.

The HPI isn't trying to place a value on the whole UK housing stock it's just a retrospective index of actual historical sales; nothing more or less ... I feel like I have become the ONS spokesperson on this matter so will leave it there ...

We can all speculate on the future of the market and that was the initial point of this thread; the HPI just gives us a benchmark to see how good or bad some of those predictions are months down the line.

There was much forecast of a crash / 30% drop ... that is yet to show itself in the actual HPI ... of course there is a lag and that may yet come true and maybe right now offers are being accepted 30% below asking price; that's not my experience locally but maybe in some overheated areas of London that is happening.

I still think my forecast of property doubling will come true before the 30% drop forecast ...

[thegreatdogwood]

The HPI isn't trying to place a value on the whole UK housing stock it's just a retrospective index of actual historical sales; nothing more or less ... I feel like I have become the ONS spokesperson on this matter so will leave it there ...

I interjected as you and others were using HPI to say the market was going up again when it isn't, hence pointing out why there is a leap of faith from taking the average price from a small sample of the market and seeking to draw a conclusion for the universe

We can all speculate on the future of the market and that was the initial point of this thread; the HPI just gives us a benchmark to see how good or bad some of those predictions are months down the line.

There was much forecast of a crash / 30% drop ... that is yet to show itself in the actual HPI ... of course there is a lag and that may yet come true and maybe right now offers are being accepted 30% below asking price; that's not my experience locally but maybe in some overheated areas of London that is happening.

I still think my forecast of property doubling will come true before the 30% drop forecast ...

I've never been one that believes the market will fall 30% either (in actual figures, not adjusted for inflation) but 10% maybe as an average with ongoing downward pressure in the immediate future. Equally I suspect it will be a fair amount of time now before it doubles, affordability is an issue overlaid with a cavalier approach to borrowing by some which is yet to be fully reigned in by lenders.

[Montello]

I interjected as you and others were using HPI to say the market was going up again when it isn't, hence pointing out why there is a leap of faith from taking the average price from a small sample of the market and seeking to draw a conclusion for the universe

I think we are only discussing the market not the universe; only the properties turning over define the market. The properties dormant are just that. People think their properties are worth X but only really find out when they actually attempt to sell them; that is the market.

I've never been one that believes the market will fall 30% either (in actual figures, not adjusted for inflation) but 10% maybe as an average with ongoing downward pressure in the immediate future. Equally I suspect it will be a fair amount of time now before it doubles, affordability is an issue overlaid with a cavalier approach to borrowing by some which is yet to be fully reigned in by lenders.

Ah ... well I never put a time on my forecast as that seems to be the protocol here ... I'd agree I expect to see the HPI roll off its peak by 10-15% in due course; beyond that I have no idea ...

Wages are rising faster than ever : https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0g6v495

Inflation is falling : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-66502810

The War in Ukraine could come to a dramatic end ...

Trying to predict the future is little more than a game; and we can all have a go.

My fundamental view is mankind always finds a way to progress and move forwards and the economy does they same; there are always bumps in the road but things always progress so I choose to hold assets rather than cash as experience tells me that cash never wins over the long term ...

[petethegeek]

I feel like I have become the ONS spokesperson on this matter so will leave it there

"The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning."
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise.

(Also cited by David Spiegelhalter as a preface to his introduction to The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data.)

[Montello]

"The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning."
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise.

(Also cited by David Spiegelhalter as a preface to his introduction to The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data.)

Oh well ... I've had a go ...

[Time Cat]

A very interesting discussion about house prices, index and statistics. I liked that read!

I notice that some question the data and more particular the size of data.

Doesn’t the UK keep track of all movement regarding to house property?

In the Netherlands we’ve got the Central Bureau of Statistics and the so called Kadaster which keeps track of every transaction and all sorts of data.

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/cijfers/detail/83906NED

Numbers like the price index are enlightened.

[thegreatdogwood]

"The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning."
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise.

(Also cited by David Spiegelhalter as a preface to his introduction to The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data.)

I prefer this one:

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”

[Alansmithee]

Since all of our landlords are so lovely - I'd just like to balance that out by saying when I was a landlord I screwed the tenants for every penny I could get.

[redmonaco]

Obviously true but given there are something like 30,000 sales per month do you really think that someone adding an extension is really going to skew the index in any significant way or do you think it's likely that all 30,000 built extensions? What about the bloke who painted his house lime green or added stone cladding who knocked thousands off the price.... given the number of transactions it will even out.

The HPI isn't trying to place a value on the whole UK housing stock it's just a retrospective index of actual historical sales; nothing more or less ... I feel like I have become the ONS spokesperson on this matter so will leave it there ...

We can all speculate on the future of the market and that was the initial point of this thread; the HPI just gives us a benchmark to see how good or bad some of those predictions are months down the line.

There was much forecast of a crash / 30% drop ... that is yet to show itself in the actual HPI ... of course there is a lag and that may yet come true and maybe right now offers are being accepted 30% below asking price; that's not my experience locally but maybe in some overheated areas of London that is happening.

I still think my forecast of property doubling will come true before the 30% drop forecast ...

What!!??!! You mean my lime green cladding has cost me money!!??

[Montello]

Since all of our landlords are so lovely - I'd just like to balance that out by saying when I was a landlord I screwed the tenants for every penny I could get.

Given the reputation we have I think we may as well give that a try …

What!!??!! You mean my lime green cladding has cost me money!!??

Ah, if you have gone for the whole combo I’m sure that will add value, gnomes in the garden are also good.

[noTAGlove]

Given the reputation we have I think we may as well give that a try

I know that is a bit of a glib comment, and you sound like a nice landlord, but as well as being a nice human being it makes complete business sense to look after good tenants, even if you have to sacrifice not achieving the highest rent.

Firstly, a good existing long term tenant will look after your property and will pay on time. That is worth its weight in gold. The next tenant is an unknown no matter how much due diligence you do.

When landlords say they are too nice to their tenants, and could get more money, the latter is true. However it comes with a level of risk that the new tenants may not respect the property, may decide at some point not to pay the rent and just come with a level of uncertainty that a good existing tenant does not.

So, I personally don’t buy all of this rhetoric. Yes, you maybe able to achieve 10%+ extra rent by turfing out good existing tenants, but the smarter business (and life) decision is to be loyal to a great tenant, even if they are not paying top dollar.

Often, landlords will dress this up as they are doing the tenant a favour, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Often the tenant is equally doing the landlord a favour, but the landlord rarely sees it that way.

[Montello]

I know that is a bit of a glib comment, and you sound like a nice landlord, but as well as being a nice human being it makes complete business sense to look after good tenants, even if you have to sacrifice not achieving the highest rent.

Firstly, a good existing long term tenant will look after your property and will pay on time. That is worth its weight in gold. The next tenant is an unknown no matter how much due diligence you do.

When landlords say they are too nice to their tenants, and could get more money, the latter is true. However it comes with a level of risk that the new tenants may not respect the property, may decide at some point not to pay the rent and just come with a level of uncertainty that a good existing tenant does not.

So, I personally don’t buy all of this rhetoric. Yes, you maybe able to achieve 10%+ extra rent by turfing out good existing tenants, but the smarter business (and life) decision is to be loyal to a great tenant, even if they are not paying top dollar.

Often, landlords will dress this up as they are doing the tenant a favour, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Often the tenant is equally doing the landlord a favour.

I know, all our tenants are long term and paying below market rents. We have good relationships and I hope that will continue.

Only ever had one bad tenant who turned out to be an alcoholic who fell off the wagon.

Turn over is a pain and so best avoided. I have never evicted a tenant.

[noTAGlove]

I know, all our tenants are long term and paying below market rents. We have good relationships and I hope that will continue.

Only ever had one bad tenant who turned out to be an alcoholic who fell off the wagon.

Turn over is a pain and so best avoided. I have never evicted a tenant.

Sounds like you have a good setup which you are as happy as can be with.

[Montello]

Sounds like you have a good setup which you are as happy as can be with.

It’s ok, but all the landlord bashing is getting to me so I will likely call it a day at some point. That will be more tenants looking for a new home.

[noTAGlove]

It’s ok, but all the landlord bashing is getting to me so I will likely call it a day at some point. That will be more tenants looking for a new home.

I guess all landlords call it a day at some point. There is always a good time to cash in the chips, if you have been invested for a while. Life tells you when to take the easier way forward.

There are always some rogue landlords which will tar others with the same brush. I have never had an issue with landlords, but I do with the Governments of the last 30 years which has treated housing like a privatisation exercise akin to bus/train/utility/ANother services.

Housing is a basic necessity that deserves not to be systemically handed out to any person(s) who can persuade a mortgage company to lend to them, on the sole basis to make a profit at the expense of someone else’s need for a home.

[Montello]

Housing is a basic necessity that deserves not to be systemically handed out to any person(s)

So is water, food, health care, energy, education, transport and so on …

Also note that there is significant regulation controlling landlords.

All of these things are necessities of life and all are in the hands of organisations that create profit. It’s capitalism, the least worst system.

How are the water companies doing right now? I’d suggest most private landlords function in a far more ethical and professional manner so aren’t really deserving of the bashing they receive in that context.

[noTAGlove]

Sorry. That is nonsense. Individuals have little access to other privatised industries.

Apart from equity investing, where do you get the chance to invest signification sums in food/health/utilities etc.

As I said, I don’t blame landlords, but you seem to have a chip on your shoulder as if everyone is out to get your cohort.

[Montello]

Sorry. That is nonsense. Individuals have little access to other privatised industries.

Apart from equity investing, where do you get the chance to invest signification sums in food/health/utilities etc.

As I said, I don’t blame landlords, but you seem to have a chip on your shoulder as if everyone is out to get your cohort.

The moral arguments stands regardless of whether you own a single share or the whole business… it’s still profiting from an essential service.

I think the chip resides squarely on the shoulders of the landlord bashers and it’s now getting tiresome.

Targeting landlords has done nothing to bring house prices down and is just hurting tenants. Where’s the good in any of that?

The politicians have sold all the local authority stock, they have stopped building and are shutting down the private sector. Where do they think people will live?

[Passenger]

I know that is a bit of a glib comment, and you sound like a nice landlord, but as well as being a nice human being it makes complete business sense to look after good tenants, even if you have to sacrifice not achieving the highest rent.

Firstly, a good existing long term tenant will look after your property and will pay on time. That is worth its weight in gold. The next tenant is an unknown no matter how much due diligence you do.

When landlords say they are too nice to their tenants, and could get more money, the latter is true. However it comes with a level of risk that the new tenants may not respect the property, may decide at some point not to pay the rent and just come with a level of uncertainty that a good existing tenant does not.

So, I personally don’t buy all of this rhetoric. Yes, you maybe able to achieve 10%+ extra rent by turfing out good existing tenants, but the smarter business (and life) decision is to be loyal to a great tenant, even if they are not paying top dollar.

Often, landlords will dress this up as they are doing the tenant a favour, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Often the tenant is equally doing the landlord a favour, but the landlord rarely sees it that way.

Avoid the voids is imho the key.

[Montello]

Avoid the voids is imho the key.

With the demand sky high voids are not an issue these days.

Maybe we could get this topic back to the market rather than the landlord focus as PRS is only a minority segment of the whole.

Interest rate decision imminent… I wonder if the lower inflation data will hold off an increase?

[noTAGlove]

Avoid the voids is imho the key.

I imagine you also want to avoid the tenants who part way through their tenancy decide not continue to pay rent, decide to trash the place, or both.

[Passenger]

With the demand sky high voids are not an issue these days.

Maybe we could get this topic back to the market rather than the landlord focus as PRS is only a minority segment of the whole.

Interest rate decision imminent… I wonder if the lower inflation data will hold off an increase?

I think there's a danger they'll overshoot with another increase, but we'll see...there's some noise, speculation that recession is practically nailed on, now just a matter of time. I'd be surprised if it ain't ''official'' by early 2024, maybe tail end of 2023.

[noTAGlove]

Interest rate decision imminent… I wonder if the lower inflation data will hold off an increase?

All over the Torygraph yesterday that after the inflation print the current market consensus is that IRs will now peak even higher at 6%, given fall in inflation was caused by volatiles. Core inflation rose!

[Passenger]

I imagine you also want to avoid the tenants who part way through their tenancy decide not continue to pay rent, decide to trash the place, or both.

Since moving out here, after a couple of years, realised we needed a local agent...ended up with an agency that works with London councils placing folks on the emergency Housing wait list, technically in temp accommodation, if they wreck a place they're not doing their future rankings any good, it hasn't happened yet in, hmm 7 or 8 years...Long contracts and guaranteed rents, stability, never a void...I'm all for an easy life, could be I lack ambition, chuckle.

[noTAGlove]

I think there's a danger they'll overshoot with another increase, but we'll see...there's some noise, speculation that recession is practically nailed on, now just a matter of time. I'd be surprised if it ain't ''official'' by early 2024, maybe tail end of 2023.

Massive early retirement post Covid and kicking out of Jonny Forriner means that there is a long way to go before the employment market rebalances as underlined by record wage growth this week.

Record employment and wage growth has kept house prices from falling substantially, and also fuelling inflation.

The market will really turn if/when unemployment kicks in and the country goes into recession. Rents will fall also. This seems a long way off as the labour market is still very tight.

Whether because of a massive lag, interest rates seem to be doing little at the moment, and it seems that will go higher.

[redmonaco]

I guess all landlords call it a day at some point. There is always a good time to cash in the chips, if you have been invested for a while. Life tells you when to take the easier way forward.

There are always some rogue landlords which will tar others with the same brush. I have never had an issue with landlords, but I do with the Governments of the last 30 years which has treated housing like a privatisation exercise akin to bus/train/utility/ANother services.

Housing is a basic necessity that deserves not to be systemically handed out to any person(s) who can persuade a mortgage company to lend to them, on the sole basis to make a profit at the expense of someone else’s need for a home.

Well said.

[redmonaco]

The moral arguments stands regardless of whether you own a single share or the whole business… it’s still profiting from an essential service.

I think the chip resides squarely on the shoulders of the landlord bashers and it’s now getting tiresome.

Targeting landlords has done nothing to bring house prices down and is just hurting tenants. Where’s the good in any of that?

The politicians have sold all the local authority stock, they have stopped building and are shutting down the private sector. Where do they think people will live?

Most landlords have taken advantage of a system that has enabled them to hold increasing assets and also make a profit. There is nothing wrong with that except that successive governments from the last 50+ years have encouraged it at the expense of them providing social housing. It is the politicians that have created and pushed this unfair society.

[Passenger]

Massive early retirement post Covid and kicking out of Jonny Forriner means that there is a long way to go before the employment market rebalances as underlined by record wage growth this week.

Record employment and wage growth has kept house prices from falling substantially, and also fuelling inflation.

The market will really turn if/when unemployment kicks in and the country goes into recession. Rents will fall also. This seems a long way off as the labour market is still very tight.

Whether because of a massive lag, interest rates seem to be doing little at the moment, and it seems that will go higher.

Not my rents, see prev post...Listening to Hunty and others, official policy is recession or bust! I just hope it isn't recession and bust, though I'll be insulated from the worst of the chill. They're playing with knives.

[redmonaco]

Since moving out here, after a couple of years, realised we needed a local agent...ended up with an agency that works with London councils placing folks on the emergency Housing wait list, technically in temp accommodation, if they wreck a place they're not doing their future rankings any good, it hasn't happened yet in, hmm 7 or 8 years...Long contracts and guaranteed rents, stability, never a void...I'm all for an easy life, could be I lack ambition, chuckle.

Back to government not creating enogh social housing. Just overpaying to the private sector with our taxes...

[JonRA]

We are looking to buy at the moment. I expect prices may well settle back a little over the next year. But knowing the optimum time from a purely financial perspective (ie the bottom of the market) is almost impossible to predict and regardless of when you buy, over the longer term you are unlikely to see a loss (unless forced to sell at the 'wrong' time because of one of the estate agent's "three Ds" - divorce, debt or death). I really can't worry about the price next year or the year after. The bigger problem at the moment is seeing a property you like, only to find that the seller hasn't even started to look for a property yet. How long it may take before they will be ready to exchange is a complete unknown - we have been finding new builds and other chain-free houses much more attractive propositions.

[Passenger]

Back to government not creating enogh social housing. Just overpaying to the private sector with our taxes...

The private sector provides, doing my bit for the needy by offering them a decent roof over their heads...you play the cards you're dealt, adapt to local conditions.

[Passenger]

We are looking to buy at the moment. I expect prices may well settle back a little over the next year. But knowing the optimum time from a purely financial perspective (ie the bottom of the market) is almost impossible to predict and regardless of when you buy, over the longer term you are unlikely to see a loss (unless forced to sell at the 'wrong' time because of one of the estate agent's "three Ds" - divorce, debt or death). I really can't worry about the price next year or the year after. The bigger problem at the moment is seeing a property you like, only to find that the seller hasn't even started to look for a property yet. How long it may take before they will be ready to exchange is a complete unknown - we have been finding new builds and other chain-free houses much more attractive propositions.

Over the mid to long term time in market, is as important as market timing. Best of luck, are you chain free or have your place already under offer...

[Time Cat]

With the demand sky high voids are not an issue these days.

Maybe we could get this topic back to the market rather than the landlord focus as PRS is only a minority segment of the whole.

Interest rate decision imminent… I wonder if the lower inflation data will hold off an increase?

Due to the high inflation, the real net monthly costs are also falling rapidly. Analysts of a bank estimates on the bases of house prices, inflation and capital market interest rates, that someone who buys a house at the end of 2024 approximately have the same monthly costs as someone who bought a comparable house at the end of 2020. Since mortgage costs play an important role in the purchasing decision of home buyers, and also determine their maximum mortgage, these analysts also assume that this improvement in the affordability of owner-occupied homes will contribute to the recovery in demand for owner-occupied homes.

[beechcustom]

As I said, I don’t blame landlords, but you seem to have a chip on your shoulder as if everyone is out to get your cohort.

Seriously. Are you really that tone deaf??? You are the one who has a gargantuan chip on their shoulder. You revel in the slightest opportunity to present a negative spin on the housing and btl market and you've hitherto said as much.

I've been around here long enough to observe that you also have an issue with people who have a relationship with their Rolex AD and most recently you were being snotty about premium car drivers if I'm not mistaken. The chip appears to be very much on you mate.

As others have pointed out, you can't really claim any high moral ground over landlords if you have a pension fund as some of it will undoubtedly be invested in the property market. Plus you actively live and breath in our capitalist hell hole such that it is.

Landlord bashing is a 'divide and conquer' diversionary tactic similar to getting the common man riled up about immigrants in small boats infesting our dear island and taking all the hotel rooms FOC.

Unless you are screamingly wealthy I'm pretty sure we are on the same side all said and done. BTL landlords are not the super wealthy (I'm certainly not) but it's looking like the super wealthy will be the ones benefiting from the squeeze on BTL landlords as they hoover up all the stock in their Company set ups. The Government don't want plebs like me owning rental properties. That much is absolutely clear. If you feel renters and tenants will get a better deal at the hands of the wealthy elite (who in general demonstrably have zero care or empathy for the lower orders), good luck with that.

[noTAGlove]

Seriously. Are you really that tone deaf??? You are the one who has a gargantuan chip on their shoulder. You revel in the slightest opportunity to present a negative spin on the housing and btl market and you've hitherto said as much.

I've been around here long enough to observe that you also have an issue with people who have a relationship with their Rolex AD and most recently you were being snotty about premium car drivers if I'm not mistaken. The chip appears to be very much on you mate.

As others have pointed out, you can't really claim any high moral ground over landlords if you have a pension fund as some of it will undoubtedly be invested in the property market. Plus you actively live and breath in our capitalist hell hole such that it is.

Landlord bashing is a 'divide and conquer' diversionary tactic similar to getting the common man riled up about immigrants in small boats infesting our dear island and taking all the hotel rooms FOC.

Unless you are screamingly wealthy I'm pretty sure we are on the same side all said and done. BTL landlords are not the super wealthy (I'm certainly not) but it's looking like the super wealthy will be the ones benefiting from the squeeze on BTL landlords as they hoover up all the stock in their Company set ups. The Government don't want plebs like me owning rental properties. That much is absolutely clear. If you feel renters and tenants will get a better deal at the hands of the wealthy elite (who in general demonstrably have zero care or empathy for the lower orders), good luck with that.

I will ignore this as I know as a late post Covid BTL entrant you will only be looking for the good news. I understand you may be a little nervous around your long term investment.

You decided to go ahead with your investment during the Truss wobble, as the vested interests you were working with told you everything was going to be OK. IIRC correctly as the time I made a comment to you where I said be careful of advice from the vested interests, and that was it.

I have never slagged off a landlord on this thread. Full stop. So stop misrepresenting me.

I dont have any high moral high ground. I simply call the housing market as I forecast it. Fooking 30 years of landlord beanfeast and you are telling me I am taking the high ground. Sheesh. I think your attitude is related to you liking in as a bag holder.

I see personally see things turning badly. I haven’t waved from this is over a year. That is my opinion. And I am entitled to it.

I don’t need to put a negative spin on the property market. The Tortygraph/Times/Guardian is doing a perfectly good job.l at the moment.

Now, let’s stay factual on this forum. Don’t blame me for any worries you have. This clearly comes across in your mini-rant.

[Montello]

I have never slagged off a landlord on this thread. Full stop. So stop misrepresenting me.

You have never made any effort to hide your obvious glee that political change, falling prices and rising interest rates is squeezing landlords. You clearly have a problem with us but have never explained why. I can only guess it’s because you blame landlords for pumping up prices in the UK but as I’ve attempted to explain previously landlords are only a small segment of the market and the current situation is a political construct with the froth added by ZIRP.

Fooking 30 years of landlord beanfeast and you are telling me I am taking the high ground. Sheesh.

I can’t work out if your just annoyed you didn’t buy investment property yourself in the past and are angry you missed out or you just think landlords are having some sort of undeserving free lunch.

Being a landlord is akin to having a part time job running a small business. It requires time and effort and you have to accept quite a lot of risk. That effort and risk has created decent but not crazy returns over the period you highlight but lower than stock markets. The only upside has been the ability to leverage which meant risk for those who chose that route.

You are of course entitled to your views on landlords I’m just attempting to point out that they are perhaps not entirely fair.

I agree with the analogy made above, politicians, and the media they drive, paint landlords as the bad guys in the UK housing equation to mask the real problems.

Your forecast for the market is well understood, it’s always good to have a range of views, but your claiming of accuracy was highly premature, you may ultimately be proved correct. Time will tell.

This current situation, created by political change, is driving many landlords from the market which will leave a housing crisis for renters. This will be backfilled by corporate landlords and housing associations.

If I was a tenant I’d much rather have a private landlord that cared about their properties than some corporate body who manage thousands.

The market is shifting composition but I don’t see it crashing, my forecast remains 10-15% roll off the peak then climbing again.

[Time Cat]

…

The market is shifting composition but I don’t see it crashing, my forecast remains 10-15% roll off the peak then climbing again.

Allthough it’s the Dutch market which isn’t quit comparable to the UK market, but bank analysts expect prices slightly fall or even stable in 2024 and then climb again.
No signs of crashing at all.

[mr noble]

Have we now seen peak interest rates?

Talk of the ECB starting to cut rates soon, and here is the first sub 5% mortgage deal in a while.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...499-fixed-rate

Interesting that it’s a BTL mortgage at 4.99% and the residential version is 5.12%.

I’d always thought BTL loans were more expensive than resi.

[noTAGlove]

Have we now seen peak interest rates?

Talk of the ECB starting to cut rates soon, and here is the first sub 5% mortgage deal in a while.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...499-fixed-rate

Interesting that it’s a BTL mortgage at 4.99% and the residential version is 5.12%.

I’d always thought BTL loans were more expensive than resi.

CPI at 6.4% and almost 3.5 times target. RPI at 9%.

Brent crude up 30% in the last 3 months. Most of the fall in inflation has been down to the price fall in volatile commodities, but commodities are now roaring upwards. So with a bit of lag it would not surprise me if inflation starts to tick up again.

GBP down over 5% in the last two months further compounding oil and import costs. Anyone noticed their steep price increases when they fill up at the pumps?

US inflation coming in hotter than expected, and nearly full employment in the U.K.

Plus, your track record of guessing the path of interest rates over the last 18 months could not have been more wrong.

Apart from that, yes we may be near the peak.

[ryanb741]

Election campaigning will start next year which means free money. So I suspect we will see inflation 'hit goal' sometime next year.

Trading Economics are predicting 1 more interest rate rise this month then rates to stay at that level for 6 months before dropping a quarter of a percent in Q2 2024.

Expect the economy to pick up and rates drop as we enter election season. The Tories can't afford that not to be the case.

[Passenger]

CPI at 6.4% and almost 3.5 times target. RPI at 9%.

Brent crude up 30% in the last 3 months. Most of the fall in inflation has been down to the price fall in volatile commodities, but commodities are now roaring upwards. So with a bit of lag it would not surprise me if inflation starts to tick up again.

GBP down over 5% in the last two months further compounding oil and import costs. Anyone noticed their steep price increases when they fill up at the pumps?

US inflation coming in hotter than expected, and nearly full employment in the U.K.

Plus, your track record of guessing the path of interest rates over the last 18 months could not have been more wrong.

Apart from that, yes we may be near the peak.

I thought I read the UK employment market was showing signs of being on the turn, with unemployment rising in the last few months, with something in the order of 160,000 folks losing their jobs over the summer? I imagine the rising trend for insolvencies, up 40 percent in England and Wales, also feeding through in the coming months, more job losses...

Unfortunately I don´t think there´s a soft landing in sight, quite yet.

[ryanb741]

I thought I read the UK employment market was showing signs of being on the turn, with unemployment rising in the last few months, with something in the order of 160,000 folks losing their jobs over the summer? I imagine the rising trend for insolvencies, up 40 percent in England and Wales, also feeding through in the coming months, more job losses...

Unfortunately I don´t think there´s a soft landing in sight, quite yet.

I work in the recruitment sector. The UK market has been weak since the start of this year, it is picking up very slowly but huge salaries on offer aren't common any more so wage inflation should moderate.

I'm not expecting a bounce in the UK employment sector but do expect it to continually improve slowly over the next 12 months, however no big rebound like some hope for.

The German Market is most in trouble though - this really has taken a bad turn in the last 3 months with employers slashing recruitment budgets.

[Passenger]

Have we now seen peak interest rates?

Talk of the ECB starting to cut rates soon, and here is the first sub 5% mortgage deal in a while.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...499-fixed-rate

Interesting that it’s a BTL mortgage at 4.99% and the residential version is 5.12%.

I’d always thought BTL loans were more expensive than resi.

Don´t BTL mortgages nowadays generally insist- offer, lower max LTV´s, giving the lender greater confidence, security... explains the difference, though I could be wrong.

[noTAGlove]

Don´t BTL mortgages nowadays generally insist- offer, lower max LTV´s, giving the lender greater confidence, security... explains the difference, though I could be wrong.

Yep, the lifeblood of the market, the FTB ain’t going to see anywhere near 5% rates with a small deposit unless BOMAD wades in.

All well and good if you are looking to remortgage with huge chunk of equity and a pristine credit rating.

[noTAGlove]

I work in the recruitment sector. The UK market has been weak since the start of this year, it is picking up very slowly but huge salaries on offer aren't common any more so wage inflation should moderate

Im guessing in your line of work you are not recruiting Amazon warehouse staff, Aldi checkout bods and care home staff. Still pressure at the lower end of the market given we kicked out the unskilled you know who.

It may be quiet in the sector you are recruiting for, but plenty of sectors like energy still having a beanfeast.

[Passenger]

Yep, the lifeblood of the market, the FTB ain’t going to see anywhere near 5% rates with a small deposit unless BOMAD wades in.

All well and good if you are looking to remortgage with huge chunk of equity and a pristine credit rating.

Aye well, thankfully I´m the latter...even so by no means feeling complacent.

[mr noble]

Plus, your track record of guessing the path of interest rates over the last 18 months could not have been more wrong.

Errrr, WTF? I think I said we’d see peak rates in late Q3 or early Q4 and would then see rates start getting cut at the end of this year or early 2024.

This is exactly what we are seeing.

[ryanb741]

Im guessing in your line of work you are not recruiting Amazon warehouse staff, Aldi checkout bods and care home staff. Still pressure at the lower end of the market given we kicked out the unskilled you know who.

It may be quiet in the sector you are recruiting for, but plenty of sectors like energy still having a beanfeast.

Yep we work in that sector too (we aren't a recruitment consultancy rather we drive targeted online traffic to all of the big online recruitment platforms).

That sector is indeed still under pressure for sure, not enough staff and yes for the reason you outlined that we shan't mention here