Quite correct.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Time to review the charity bets, exactly 1 month left for bets #3, #4, #5 and #7.
1. Sean89: ETH marketcap > BTC marketcap anytime between today and 31/12/22. Raffe over, Sean under. £50
Long time left, but my optimism has been going down the drain recently with BTC/ETH marketcap trading up into the 2.60s
2. Sean89: Floki Inu fully diluted market cap > $10bln on 31/12/2022. Sean over, Raffe under. £50
Long time left, but the price will have to go up by over 11,000% to get there so I am not losing a lot of sleep.
3. Ryanb741: S&P500 > 5,000 on 30/06/2022, Ryan over, Raffe under. £50
One month, 20% upwards to go. Not impossible, but steep.
4. demonloop: BTC price > $150,000 anytime between today and 30/06/22. demonloop over, Raffe under. £50
Needs to trade 370% higher during next month, right on track for $250k end of year.
5. mr noble: Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50
Needs to go up 476% in one month. Maybe.
6. Daveya: Raffe wins all of bets 1 to 5. Daveya over, Raffe under. £50
To be seen 31/12, but given #1, I think I will win.
7. Chinnock: AMC price > $50 on 30/06/2022, Chinnock over, Raffe under. £50
Needs 250% in the last month. Let's see.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
And whilst on the topic of bitcoin mining, there's no real surprises in this snapshot on the economics of running a large scale operation at the moment. Some fairly sobering numbers nonetheless.
Add to that the effects of their genius decisions not to sell their bitcoins but to hodl out for higher prices and they will all go bankrupt during the next BTC leg down (as their stock prices are already predicting).
But in any case, even a stock that is down 85% (as Argo, Riot and Marathon all are), can still go down a lot more.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I've got my short on $MSTR for tomorrow. Expecting a retrace.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
It's possible that particular oil tanker might have begun to turn.
https://nairametrics.com/2022/06/02/...rket-persists/
Indeed the issue is (quietly) mentioned in the recent Argo Blockchain Investor Presentation. (Secondary bullet point on slide thirteen in this PDF of the deck for anyone desperately interested.)
Ha, good spot.
I can assure you that the desperate investors get all their info from the LSE Argo forum. I can only recommend, it's a clown show.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Two different things, both mentioned in this deck (and please don't miss the little footnote preparing for another dump of equity onto bagholders):
And, 12% is rather steep interest, the average USD junk bonds are at 6,9% at the moment (and that is for unsecured lending). The fact that Argo has to pay a cool 5% more than that for a secured loan should tell you something. And that little something ain't good.
Last edited by Raffe; 2nd June 2022 at 21:33.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
You think 12% is good?
Iris got money from NYDIG at 11%, Greenidge paid 13%, HUT paid 9.5%, CleanSpark 9.9% - so I give you that: they are average shitty in a sector full of shit cos.
And all of them are preparing a major dump of equity after their share prices lost 80%+. Shows a lot of confidence, not.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I opened another short on MSTR. Not the best timing because they continued to rise but I am expecting a nice drop today with BTC price dropping!
Musk in his words has a super bad feeling about the economy, and announces 10,000 or 10% Tesla job cuts via internal memo.
This was a very rough week with a very happy ending on Friday. Short Tesla, short bitcoin and long Twitter - that wasn't the trade of the week - until today.
Let the weekend roll in.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Trimming some of my Tesla and Bitcoin shorts here, looking to sell again at higher levels.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Long Tesla for a bounce.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Michael Burry tweeting again. It feels like he is a pig in, I told you so, sh1t
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/st...afPB-hHO4ddGDw
Transitory, no. Peak, no. To the moon? If you mean a cold dark place.
"The CPI news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond market’s view of Fed trajectory, and the weakest sector broke. In bond jargon, MBS went “no-bid.” No buyers for MBS."
https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news
Proper carnage on the US stock market at the moment
Rates in the debt market are surging.
Bosh!
https://henrytapper.com/2022/06/13/m...e-unthinkable/
House is falling down!
Everybody knows that unfunded pensions are the worst ticking time bomb imaginable. It's the very reason why public finances are unsustainable and we will be seeing a big bang sometime on the time horizon.
This can has been kicked down the road forever and no newspaper paper interview is going to change that. They won't change anything until it's too late.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I can recount many bad moves and losses over the last year, and this is very unusual for me, but it is looking like I may have a made a half decent move this time. Took £25k out of the SM in late May and have it sitting in cash. I did look at shorting the FTSE but I bottled out.
Watch me eat my words as the SM will rally 10% if I have taken money out of it!
I know things can change quickly, but I plan to sit on it for a few months or until/if the SHTF properly.
I know I have broken the golden rule of investing, and it is time in the market rather than timing the market, but I fancied a bit of fun, and wanted to stay true to my conviction.
Last edited by noTAGlove; 14th June 2022 at 12:03.
I give you the two poster children of Covid-related stock market absurdity.
Microstrategy has just reversed the complete run up since December 2019, Tesla still has a lot of downside left. Obviously they are not the same, not even directly comparable except for the hoards of fanbois that have been chasing the stock price in a fact-free bubble absent of any common sense. Hundreds of thousands of investors gamblers will lose everything and will remain indebted for the rests of their lives. And the companies boards of directors have stood in silence watching the cocaine-induced shenanigans of the two celebrity CEOs, while cashing out every single share they have received for their custodial service to shareholders.
When prison?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
US 10 year just breached 3.5% with 30 year just behind. 50 bps increase in the last 5 days alone.
This mean mortgage rates in the US will be around 6 to 6.5%. That was my interest on my first house in London in 1999, except house price were 5 times cheaper back then.
Stock market down on the news. House prices in the US will go backwards. Set up for a very interesting period if it continues this way.
No significant financial acumen, but I have learned not to worry about what goes on in the stock market. It is the debt market that matters.
Luxury son, I paid 15.4% on my first house, mortgage was 80% of our income and we had 15 quid for food,
Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
The £ has been absolutely smashed over the last few days compounding the weakness of the last few months. It's fighting to stay above 1.20 but appears ready to cave in below that level. The Torys have truly fucked the UK's future.
Turns out money didn't grow on trees and that the cost of repeated lockdowns and pumping money into the economy would end up causing issues long term.
I suspect the long term issues predated covid but certainly pumping out money to just any companies without even basic due diligence and forethought given to the 'build back better' notion, just cost the taxpayer 7 or 8 billions lost to fraud...
Why wouldn't, shouldn't the pound fall to parity with the euro and dollar, it'd just be the continuation of the long term trend and GB's expected to do worst barring Russia of all the G20 next year...heck parity may be optimistic.
Last edited by Passenger; 15th June 2022 at 09:33.
The collapse of the Great British Peso is the only thing that is propping up the further collapse of the SMT share price.
Sterling is now falling faster than US stocks, meaning the more recent small losses on US stocks are still providing a positive return to U.K. holders.
Gold has collapsed in price in USD, but marching higher in GBP. We are becoming more like Turkey every day.
Probably the most sensible post you’ve ever made !
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Last edited by Chinnock; 15th June 2022 at 22:30.