I have seen a lot of crazy stuff this year, but this one tops it all
Shortselling Trump SPAC DWAC at $24 and $25 - buying the warrants ($11.50 strike) at $7.00 and $7.20 - what is wrong with this world?
Free money arbitrage on the biggest stock exchange in the world????
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I have seen a lot of crazy stuff this year, but this one tops it all
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Well the free money isn't easy to reap today....
Hit $52 in the meantime. I am hedged by owning the warrants to buy back my shorts, but it may take up to 30 days until I can exercise (a lot of small-print legalese in the SEC filings). But who said this was easy? Would have been easier to just go long and enjoy the ride, but that was an equally crazy idea. Well well.
Suppose this has a chance of crash tomorrow, or a chance to completely go to the moon in order to squeeze out everybody who did the same trade as I did but didn't size it responsibly and might blow out before they can exercise their hedge? I have honestly no idea. Crazy times, this is 'worth' $1.8 bln now.
Another GME/AMC situation? Plenty of people talking about it, but I still doubt it. But what do I know?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Tesla has a R&D budget of $1.1 bln for this year, that includes their research into all of their business areas (including solar, battery and self-driving).
Volkswagen has a budget of $16.5 bln
Daimler: $10.21 bln
Toyota: $9.9 bln
Ford: $7.1 bln
General Motors: $6.2 bln
Calculating it per car is just showing an enormous amount for Tesla because they almost build no cars in comparison to the other firms. There is a reason Tesla is not bringing out any new models in 2021 and 2022, their flagship S model is now 9 years old without an update and none is planned.
Data: Here and here
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Ooopsies. That went a bit violent.
Fortunately I only did a small position (5% of portfolio), but still this spiralled completely out of control. At one point the regs hit $60 while the warrants were still at $12. I had somehow missed the fact that the 30 days until the warrants can be exercised start counting from the day the merger is completed, not announced. Hmm.
I closed half of my short at $42/43 and then the rest between $54 and $57 - I am just too afraid this is going to hit $100 tomorrow. There is an unholy alliance of WSB and MAGA buying this, and no matter how dumb the suggestions in the SPAC prospectus are, they will drive this up for another day I believe. Currently just sitting on the warrants, and those have jumped from $12 to $19 during the past two hours. Need them to go to $25 to break even.
Crazy stuff and everybody knew that one shouldn't short a meme express, just that I thought I was hedged and that didn't really work as planned. Stupid.
Don't do this. Ever.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
$68 regs, $21 warrants
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Sold half at $25 - that was hard work.
Now the fun.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Out at $33.88 for the rest. What a crazy trade.
There is going to be a lot of blood on the street when this is being cleaned up.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
OMG
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Managed a quick 25% in about 15 mins and amazingly timed it just before the dump (for a change)
Last edited by Raffe; 22nd October 2021 at 18:25.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Ahh completely forgot about my Tesla calls. Nice one today, though I have no idea why it should be up after the FSD update debacle over the weekend. Everybody just talking about a piece of news from Panasonic about upcoming new cell design - but Tesla has already bounced ten times on this news and was supposed to be manufacturing these cells themselves and selling them to the market. Now the news that Panasonic is introducing them and Tesla is the only auto maker interested to buying them is worth a jump of >3% in Tesla shares.
Completely nuts, but give me the money, I can use it.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Tesla was already up 3% when that was released. Same with Morgan Stanley's price target (now $1,200, Jonas is just adding two VW market caps because of wHaTeVeR).
In any case, sales to rental companies is zero margin business, usually car companies just dump their excess capacity on these clients. So this is not going to change much about the bottom line - but when was Tesla ever about the bottom line? Might be a very strong day today despite the FSD clown show and the legal troubles brewing. Nothing new under the sun.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Out of Tesla.
Playing BRPM today, let's see if WSB will jump on that one.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Fun fact of the day: Tesla now up $130bln in market cap today, which exceeds the total market cap of all listed rental car companies. Just saying.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Been reflecting, he obviously doesn't own shares in DWAC, but he owns a good part of the other half of the company that it is merging with. As the merger ratio has been set already, his share is floating up and down with DWAC at the moment and his potential windfall is enormous (in the billions) - but obviously shares with a lock-up rather than the cash that he needs so badly.
In the event that the merger is cancelled (fairly decent probability IMO given all the legal problems identified in the SPAC prospectus and Trump's use of copyrights), he would probably just own shares in a bankrupt company.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Alternatively, he pulls off the heist of the year if his team can keep the lights on until the lock up period ends. The irony would be that, in part at least, the people driving the share price upwards are his supporters, and it is their money he would be riding off into the sunset with.
You are being played for fools.
- Hertz has nowhere near the money to buy 100k Teslas, let alone at list price
- More than 50% of all rental fleet sales get sold back to the manufacturer
- I bet you that Hertz gets finance from Tesla (which is easy to pull off with the soon-to-be-announced capital increase) and has a garanteed resale price back to Tesla
- This will end up as a logistical disaster as these cars will be sitting with defects most of the time and Tesla will bleed compensation to Hertz
- But the capital increase will not be announced before his Eminency has sold a truckload of his shares
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Bought back the BRPM shares which I sold at $13.33 and $14.44 at $11.33 (shame I cancelled my $15.55 sale order seconds before it hit and that was pennies from todays top).
Also bought back into DWAC at $57.55 - nice slide from $175 to $57, looking for a bounce towards $90 to $100.
Also started accumulating cheap ($10) SPACS which will likely announce soon. If they want to play this again, I am game. ACKIT, ATA, CHPM, VMAC, ZNTE and GLAQ to begin with.
* actually ended up selling the BRPM and DWAC shares again for about breakeven as they still felt very heavy. Looking for better entry today, possibly in an early afternoon washout...?
Last edited by Raffe; 27th October 2021 at 09:56. Reason: * added sell
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
And this.
Perfectly explains why Tesla's market cap increases by $100bln because it has received a zero-margin order for $4bln from a company that lacks the means to pay for the order. Bullish.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Hope it's the right way round for you
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From the WSJ on the Hertz purchase of 100k Teslas. Looks like you were correct that there was more to it than at first appears;
Behind That Hertz Tesla Purchase
The more you look behind corporate and government press releases these days, the more you learn about their mutual benefit society. We wrote Tuesday about the many subsidies for Teslas electric cars, but it turns out theres also a pot of subsidy gold behind the Hertz decision to buy 100,000 Teslas for its car-rental fleet.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he isnt giving Hertz a discount on the reported $4.2 billion order. But he doesnt need to because the House reconciliation spending bill includes a 30% tax credit for qualified commercial electric vehicles.
The text doesnt clearly define what is a qualified commercial electric vehicle, but our sources say Hertzs Teslas would likely make the cut. The credit could save Hertz $1.26 billion and make a Tesla almost as cheap for Hertz to buy as a Toyota Camry.
Hertz plans to install thousands of electric-vehicle chargers, which could also be eligible for taxpayers subsidies. The House spending bill extends a 30% tax credit for the installation of EV charging stations through 2031, which is on top of the $7.5 billion appropriation for stations in the separate Senate infrastructure bill.
Hertzs interim CEO Mark Fields is casting the companys Tesla order as a strategic business decision and evidence that EVs are going mainstream. Maybe, and theres no doubt that the Tesla order is winning progressive accolades for the rental-car company. Electric vehicles are also less expensive to maintain than gas-powered cars, so they could reduce Hertzs operating costs.
But if EVs make business sense, why must the government subsidize them? Democrats complain that corporations arent paying their fair share in taxes, but then they give them generous tax breaks for promoting progressive policies that reduce their tax payments.
Enjoy that Hertz Tesla ride. Youll have paid more for it than the rental contract says.
Yesterday, not for the first time this year, there was more option premium spent on Tesla shares than on all other US stocks combined. Most of it on out-of-the-money call options expiring tomorrow.
The SEC is watching and ... [wait for it] ... does nothing. They are busy hunting secretaries for insider trades yielding a few thousand Dollars.
Let that sink in.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Been buying 2,000 shares each for all of them, well some of the orders aren't filled yet.
TINV I got a fill of 28 shares on Tuesday and Wednesday combined, and so far another 115 today - the interesting thing being that I got them across 70 executions. People are selling $10 shares that are trading at $10.12 and have a free put option at $10.00 in lots of 1, 2 and 3.
Never seen anything like this... Suppose people are freeing up their last cents to throw at Shiba Inu??
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Almost certainly , the smart money is Shiba money
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Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
A tale of two autopilots.
1. Tesla
2. Waymo (= Google)
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Today we got two board members already, Ira Ehrenpreis and Antonio Gracias* sold a combined 800,000 shares yesterday, that explains already two thirds of the dark pool print.
Wait for more filings from Larry and Bros. Musk. It's coming.
* Those are supposed to be InDePeNdEnT dIrEcToRs - paid in billions of company stock!!!
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Just doubled my Tesla short at $1,120.00.
Sitting and waiting now.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Tezzlaaaaa!
https://archive.ph/EKelD
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Lol at 'left turns don't work'
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Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Getting taken to the cleaners with my Tesla short today. Tried to cut the position in half during the initial dip today and missed my order by a measly 11 cents - then it went vertical. Only short a hundred shares but down $8,800 on it.
Not buying here. Feel tempted to sell more but I am too old for those harakiri trades.
Other than that, Musk again on Crazy Days and Night. He has been a weekly feature for months now, nice insights into his life.
https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2...d-item-10.html
Last edited by Raffe; 1st November 2021 at 19:54.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
After a market cap increase of half a trillion dollars, Elon just posted that the Hertz deal isn't signed yet.
Gotta love 2021.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.