Whoa! Who shot SMT?
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COIN is just a fee machine, don't see any correlation to the underlying other than that there needs to be enough hype to warrant trading activity - whether up or down.
I would never hold any of the long beta plays on crypto like MSTR, Argo, MARA or RIOT. All of these have substantial implosion risk embedded (with Microstrategy being the worst of them).
My main activity is trading futures, long a NQ/ES spread today which has just turned positive from a rather deep underwater position an hour ago. Let it run.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Not much better for Mike either.
As the highest weighted stock in JPM's Cryptocurrency Basket MSTR (20%) is currently during them few favours.
Last edited by petethegeek; 10th May 2021 at 20:23. Reason: added link for basket
I didn’t buy any as I have exposure to SGLN and SSLN.
I bought the silver way back last March when it was $13 an Oz. It just seemed way too cheap. I wish I’d realised just how many other things were cheap back then and had loaded up rather than spending 6 months sat in cash.
Lots has been learnt (and lost) over this last 12 month journey.
Hopefully all lessons that will lead to a good investing journey from here on.
I do not intend to carry on with most of my pension/ISA pot sat in a Life Strategy fund.
Not sure what caused tonights dump across the board on tech and other stocks. Crypto taking a dive too.
Something has spooked everyone!
I took it as a good buying op and bought some more OUST & TIGR. Was tempted to buy more Microstrategy and even thought about Tesla! No doubt that'll be back at $750 later in the week.
Anticipating really bad CPI data on Wednesday. Commodities still going through the roof with iron ore futures up 10% today. Colonial pipeline causing transport fuel to spike with further concerns for inflation. EV manufacturer Workhorse bad results causing all EV stocks to dump.
High momentum stocks took a broad 5-10% bath today. Brave enough to buy the dip?
Tech sell-off continues, Tesla below $600.
Only $550 to go.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
It is properly puking away share price, lovely. $550 and ill be a very happy bunny.
Problem is we had this before back in Feb when TSLA sharted itself. Unfortunately I got greedy and didn't exit at the right time, so this time i'm not going to miss out. Do you see this current drop continuing further?
At what price will you be buying?
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
FTSE back to where it was 3 weeks ago, a more positive spin than looking at the hit today
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Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Delighted that I liquidated my Argo Blockchain Portfolio at 200p a couple weeks ago.
Less delighted that I piled the entire proceeds into SMT.
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First V8 Tesla has been fired up to the moon!
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Such a strong bounce after a gap-down open is quite a sign. This may lead to a day or two of strength that can take us quite a bit higher.
Was contemplating to buy some futures and Tesla just before the open, but then I didn't. Fool, me.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Ok what happened, i stepped out for an hour and the world turned on its head and has righted itself
Well, well. Really classic bounce off a gapped open - but now it's fading again. If this cannot return to a solid green candle on the major markets before closing we will see a big correction.
Staying sidelined except for the TSLA puts**, which are showing handsome gains.
(** almost forgot my Coinbase stock. Still holding).
Last edited by Raffe; 11th May 2021 at 15:36.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Raffe, are you thinking it’s all going to either move in a big way down or a big way up?
I’d be handy to know which one.
I was rather surprised to see such a bounce earlier when I stopped for a coffee and had a look. Nice for it not to be the bloodbath I was expecting.
The was a lot of dip buying going on just as the markets opened.
Ouch, US CPI printed 4.2% for April.
Still, overrated. When everybody and their dog are discussing CPI as if it was the only relevant variable, you should disregard it. It is a sign of healthy economic activity, how for that interpretation?
I just bought the dip to 4,108 in S&P500, will manage a tight stop and we will see where this goes.
** sold for a 10 point gain as 10Y and 30Y interest rates are rising.... rather watching for 30 minutes from the sidelines.
Last edited by Raffe; 12th May 2021 at 13:56.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
You cannot extrapolate monthly inflation numbers.
But I agree, it's elevated. Lot's of capacity bottlenecks in the system, related to the pandemic itself (logistics, labour restrictions) but also with surprisingly quick return of economic activity and related lack of planning/investment by companies. But rest assured, it is temporary. Six months down the line nobody will talk about inflation any longer.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Ok, no extrapolation. Month on month US CPI up, up, up.
Dec = 0.2%
Jan = 0.3%
Feb = 0.4%
Mar = 0.6%
Apr = 0.8%
I appreciate you probably know more on this topic, but as with the March 2020 not everything is rational.
Psychological effects of inflation can feed on itself, significantly increasing the demand side of the equation, even if supply side starts to sorts itself out. Buy now as it will only be more expensive next month/year mentality.
Even on the supply side, little evidence much of copper, oil, lumber, iron ore, semi conductors etc. etc. under any pressure.
The throw in $15 minimum wage and Biden multi-trillion infrastructure plan.
I am not convinced inflation is going to reset as quick as the Fed says. And interestingly they wheeled out one on their presidents yesterday saying that there network of agents where reporting inflationary pressures and that inflation may persist above 2% throughout 2022. A subtle but noticeable change in tone.
Yes, but 2% until 2022 isn't exactly Zimbabwe. For many years their actual inflation target was higher than that.
There are shortages in the system, but they can and will be resolved.
Having said that, I have gone short at 4210 S&P, not yet convinced and only a half position.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
30 years of CPI data. Can you see Weimar? I cannot.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Also closing my short, chance of a rally if we manage to climb a bit over the next hour. Otherwise will reinstate short.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Interestingly Weimar inflation was fairly benign between 1914-18 and 1920-21 and the Mark had strength over the Dollar as the US were in recessionary pain. Apparently by 1920 the German economy was the envy of the world.
This is despite printing on an enormous scale for 7 years since 1914 to pay for the reparations.
Inflation only went parabolic in 1922-23, 8 year after money printing started.
Michael Burry has compared the current money printing in the US to Weimar, where you replace reparations of war with Covid. But, what does he know.
Obviously can never be the scale of Weimar, but the US only has to get to 5% sustained inflation and they are toast.
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Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
But in the 80s the equivalent of multi-trillion money printing was not going on. Plus stock markets and house prices reflected the interest rates at the time. Try being a home owner in the U.K. in the early 90s if you were not repossessed.
The FED has a mandate to sustain an average of 2% inflation. 5% average inflation would result in QT and interest rates rises and increase in bond yields.
Stock market and housing market would implode as everything is currently propped up on almost free unlimited money.
A 1% increase in interest rates correlates with a 10% fall in house prices based on affordability.
Another interesting statistic is that if bond yields where to rise to 5%, the US government would spend 30% of GDP on interest payments. Or monetise the debt and then it truly would be game over.
For all you youngsters who only ever think that interest rates the stock market and house prices only go one way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday