When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

**Raffe** · 10th September 2020, 13:53

Plenty of people with plenty of egg on their face if only half of this is true.

Start with GM, then all the sell-side researchers. How come none of them ever does their job, they just make up a fancy Excel and look for reasons to justify the stock price and its trend.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why...gm-51599663329

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/deut...135928217.html

**Raffe** · 10th September 2020, 20:14

The FT has corroborated my favourite allegation:

In another instance, the short seller said Nikola faked a product video in 2018 by rolling its Nikola One truck along a downhill stretch of highway, to disguise the fact that the vehicle had no working engine, and filming it to appear it was being driven. A person familiar with the video confirmed to the Financial Times that Nikola had filmed its promotional video showing a moving truck by letting it roll down a hill in an isolated area in Utah, then edited the video to make the terrain look flat. “That’s a classic pattern of Trevor,” the former partner said. “Use just enough true elements of something to get past most people’s sniff test, but still have ulterior motives, and still have a dishonest deception in mind.”
FT

**Raffe** · 11th September 2020, 12:50

Just received some Nikola shares at $36 - the market seems to get a bit impatient waiting for Trevor...

**petethegeek** · 11th September 2020, 18:35

Initially I wasn't sure if this belonged in the bitcoin thread or here. However the "comparing bitcoin to Tesla is like comparing Nikola to an actual car company" comment decided it.

https://twitter.com/JulianMI2/status...03920097058816

**Raffe** · 12th September 2020, 08:08

Originally Posted by Raffe

About $20bln marketcap not bad for a company which doesn't have much more than a rendering of a EV truck for a product. Q2 revenue was $36,000 (thousand, not million or billion) and was 'for the provision of solar installation services to the Executive Chairman, which are billed on time and materials basis' according to their regulatory filings. The company has done ZERO revenue in their area of business but is worth $20bln?

Don't get me wrong, I have seen multiple interviews of their CEO/Chairman Trevor Milton and I sense some real business acumen rather than the pure B/S from Elon Musk, but this is a bit too steep. GM partnership mainly driven by FOMO.

Wow, he seems to have blindfolded me like evryone else:

https://twitter.com/InsiderNikola/st...50107927601157

I shorted the stock at $41.50, pruned back my position yesterday at $36.01 and $31.85 - but going to keep the rest of it until it goes where it belongs.

**mr noble** · 14th September 2020, 11:26

IAG - what's happened?

Share price plummet.....is it just due to the issue of lots of new shares and the dilution for existing holders, or has the price actually taken a big dive as well?

If it's the former, then it's hard to gauge where the price would be in relation to the old price.....if you see what I mean.

**jonny** · 14th September 2020, 19:30

Tesla up 9% today or 33 billion dollars on the back of Musk's "exciting tweet" #rationalinvesting.

**wileeeeeey** · 14th September 2020, 20:04

When are those robin hood traders going to get taken out at the knees and realise the name is a troll?

**Raffe** · 14th September 2020, 20:19

Fraud seems to be the best performing equity factor at the moment: TSLA, NKLA, BLNK, GSX.....

Epic short squeezes on all of the above, up around 10% today (in the case of NKLA after having been down 15% pre-opening).

**demonloop** · 15th September 2020, 06:18

Friend of mine has been buying shares via his Revolut app (!) and when I asked what his biggest purchase was - you guessed it — Tesla.

When I pushed a little further asking how they could be valued so highly when they sold very few cars, the answer was frightening..

“Sure they’re into rockets and everything”

**Raffe** · 15th September 2020, 06:35

**demonloop** · 15th September 2020, 18:19

Tesla up over 6%

**ryanb741** · 15th September 2020, 19:52

Tesla will only plummet once I buy some. Guaranteed.

**wileeeeeey** · 15th September 2020, 20:00

Originally Posted by ryanb741

Tesla will only plummet once I buy some. Guaranteed.

You and me both and I'm not buying.

**Dave O'Sullivan** · 16th September 2020, 07:00

Originally Posted by ryanb741

Tesla will only plummet once I buy some. Guaranteed.

I bought a small holding in Tesla last week. I’ll wait until Battery day then dump assuming it sees a little rise on the back of that.

**Passenger** · 16th September 2020, 09:12

Originally Posted by demonloop

Friend of mine has been buying shares via his Revolut app (!) and when I asked what his biggest purchase was - you guessed it — Tesla.

When I pushed a little further asking how they could be valued so highly when they sold very few cars, the answer was frightening..

“Sure they’re into rockets and everything”

spoke with my Fil on the weekend, he want's to give each Grand child a gift of cash to be invested in a stock that 'resonates' with the kids, so wanted some suggestions...a single stock imo's a bad idea, especially right now for this kind a thing but a fool and his money etc...anyway I joked that whatever he eventually buys for god sake not Tesla...the response, missed the joke totally, he was quite enthused about Tesla...

**Boss13** · 16th September 2020, 09:28

Originally Posted by Passenger

spoke with my Fil on the weekend, he want's to give each Grand child a gift of cash to be invested in a stock that 'resonates' with the kids, so wanted some suggestions...a single stock imo's a bad idea, especially right now for this kind a thing but a fool and his money etc...anyway I joked that whatever he eventually buys for god sake not Tesla...the response, missed the joke totally, he was quite enthused about Tesla...

Have a feeling a few people have that attitude to TESLA stock. By a few, I mean a lot...well they must do, given the share price. People are still buying.

Spoke to a relative who invested early in Tesla and continues to add to it and sent him a link to some of Raffe's articles previously posted. All brushed off and response was 'I am buying more right now'...and the train continues to speed along...for now.

**Raffe** · 16th September 2020, 09:33

Despite all my vows not to short Tesla again, I did it yesterday. $452 is the number, fingers crossed it ends happier than earlier attempts.

**noTAGlove** · 16th September 2020, 09:40

Originally Posted by Raffe

Despite all my vows not to short Tesla again, I did it yesterday. $452 is the number, fingers crossed it ends happier than earlier attempts.

I see nothing in your bet which differentiates you from the Tesla gambling day traders. I thought you were a bit more scientific than that.

As the stock is now driven purely by emotion, I hope you don’t join the long line of investors who have lost their shirts on their shorts.

**Raffe** · 16th September 2020, 09:54

Originally Posted by noTAGlove

I see nothing in your bet which differentiates you from the Tesla gambling day traders. I thought you were a bit more scientific than that.

As the stock is now driven purely by emotion, I hope you don’t join the long line of investors who have lost their shirts on their shorts.

The difference is that in the aftermath of the NKLA scandal, some media are beginning to report on TSLA fraud. Expect a lot of headlines around battery day. My take is that all the hype has already been reported and it's time for some sober assessments about his past promises on battery technology, self-driving, robo-taxis and all the other crazy shit. It's not that these are merely politician's lies, these claims have been made in connections with equity or debt offerings and formed the basis for investment decisions.

This is plain security fraud and the time will come when it's being investigated.

**thegreatdogwood** · 16th September 2020, 10:32

Originally Posted by Boss13

Have a feeling a few people have that attitude to TESLA stock. By a few, I mean a lot...well they must do, given the share price. People are still buying.

Spoke to a relative who invested early in Tesla and continues to add to it and sent him a link to some of Raffe's articles previously posted. All brushed off and response was 'I am buying more right now'...and the train continues to speed along...for now.

That's a fair summation of the situation. If they were to split stock further again down the line to make it even more accessible to the many, sentiment can continue to drive the agenda, albeit that raises separate issues.

I can't fathom the valuation, but then that's common in tech stocks "buying the dream". For instance (on a smaller scale) Ocado took 14 years to make a profit (4 years post float) and burnt through piles of cash, but are finally well positioned in a market they pioneered and with less barriers to entry than battery R&D costs.

**noTAGlove** · 16th September 2020, 11:07

Originally Posted by Raffe

The difference is that in the aftermath of the NKLA scandal, some media are beginning to report on TSLA fraud. Expect a lot of headlines around battery day. My take is that all the hype has already been reported and it's time for some sober assessments about his past promises on battery technology, self-driving, robo-taxis and all the other crazy shit. It's not that these are merely politician's lies, these claims have been made in connections with equity or debt offerings and formed the basis for investment decisions.

This is plain security fraud and the time will come when it's being investigated.

Good luck. I hope you have balls of steel. It is not for the feint hearted

**~dadam02~** · 16th September 2020, 11:22

Originally Posted by Raffe

The difference is that in the aftermath of the NKLA scandal, some media are beginning to report on TSLA fraud. Expect a lot of headlines around battery day. My take is that all the hype has already been reported and it's time for some sober assessments about his past promises on battery technology, self-driving, robo-taxis and all the other crazy shit. It's not that these are merely politician's lies, these claims have been made in connections with equity or debt offerings and formed the basis for investment decisions.

This is plain security fraud and the time will come when it's being investigated.

Are you not concerned the sentiment in the build up to battery day next week isn't going to send the share price significantly higher between now and then, regardless of the longer term potential for some sort of correction? Seems a risky time to be shorting TSLA.

**Raffe** · 16th September 2020, 11:43

Originally Posted by ~dadam02~

Are you not concerned the sentiment in the build up to battery day next week isn't going to send the share price significantly higher between now and then, regardless of the longer term potential for some sort of correction? Seems a risky time to be shorting TSLA.

It has just gone up 50% in 10 days with absolutely no news other than a ton of new fraud allegations by former company insiders.

How much more gains do you expect?

**~dadam02~** · 16th September 2020, 11:56

Originally Posted by Raffe

It has just gone up 50% in 10 days with absolutely no news other than a ton of new fraud allegations by former company insiders.

How much more gains do you expect?

Hasn't this always been the case? It could treble and everyone would be saying the same thing, there is no sense to this at all, doesn't change the reality though.

**Raffe** · 16th September 2020, 11:59

Any fule kno.

**jonny** · 16th September 2020, 16:28

Originally Posted by Raffe

The difference is that in the aftermath of the NKLA scandal, some media are beginning to report on TSLA fraud. Expect a lot of headlines around battery day. My take is that all the hype has already been reported and it's time for some sober assessments about his past promises on battery technology, self-driving, robo-taxis and all the other crazy shit. It's not that these are merely politician's lies, these claims have been made in connections with equity or debt offerings and formed the basis for investment decisions.

This is plain security fraud and the time will come when it's being investigated.

Your making a rational argument in an irrational market.

Is your short still active? (Futures this morning were showing red & now its green)

**Raffe** · 16th September 2020, 19:32

Originally Posted by jonny

Your making a rational argument in an irrational market.

Is your short still active? (Futures this morning were showing red & now its green)

Upon reflection, I came to the same conclusion (actually had come to that weeks ago but somehow violated my own vow not to touch the POS again). So I closed the deal again, just below the price where I shorted. It will probably drop like a stone, but I'd rather sell on hard news like a SEC investigation or similar than just trying to fish around.

**ryanb741** · 16th September 2020, 19:48

Get into Ethereum bruv

**Ivan Drago** · 16th September 2020, 20:18

The Football Index is starting to wobble.

**Daveya.** · 17th September 2020, 07:39

Has the DOW already decided Trump will win?

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**Raffe** · 17th September 2020, 07:53

Dunno what the long term chart has to do with Trump - for clues on that I would look at the short term Nasdaq chart:

**Daveya.** · 17th September 2020, 07:54

Maybe the worries about a FTSE correction are being over played , it's a slow climb back

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**~dadam02~** · 17th September 2020, 13:10

Originally Posted by Raffe

Upon reflection, I came to the same conclusion (actually had come to that weeks ago but somehow violated my own vow not to touch the POS again). So I closed the deal again, just below the price where I shorted. It will probably drop like a stone, but I'd rather sell on hard news like a SEC investigation or similar than just trying to fish around.

Maybe you should have kept it on after all, some movement in the pre-market this morning as you would have noticed.

**Raffe** · 17th September 2020, 14:03

Originally Posted by ~dadam02~

Maybe you should have kept it on after all, some movement in the pre-market this morning as you would have noticed.

Sure. Nothing unexpected. Your fault.

**~dadam02~** · 17th September 2020, 14:13

Originally Posted by Raffe

Sure. Nothing unexpected. Your fault.

Standard answer I get from my wife funnily enough. Anyways mye 3STS position has been taking a hammering recently so i need some downward movement.

**ryanb741** · 18th September 2020, 11:19

_{Anyone know why the airline stocks (IAG, EZJ) are absolutely tanking today?}

**Daveya.** · 18th September 2020, 11:21

Originally Posted by ryanb741

_{Anyone know why the airline stocks (IAG, EZJ) are absolutely tanking today?}

Possibly the thought that Christmas getaways are looking less and less likely would be my guess

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**Raffe** · 18th September 2020, 11:54

Originally Posted by ryanb741

_{Anyone know why the airline stocks (IAG, EZJ) are absolutely tanking today?}

Let me think hard.

Maybe because they are p*ssing liquidity and the news is that the UK government is about to lock down London and with that take away any expectation of a recovery of travel anytime soon?

**mr noble** · 18th September 2020, 21:49

I heard a rumour from a neighbour who has a relative in parliament, that Boris is not well and not recovered from his CV bout.
Apparently he is going to resign in January after we’ve Brexited.

Not sure how true or what impact that would have?

Rishi for PM?

**mr noble** · 18th September 2020, 21:50

Originally Posted by ryanb741

_{Anyone know why the airline stocks (IAG, EZJ) are absolutely tanking today?}

Could look back in 3 years and think what an amazing time to have bought into IAG.......or they could go pop.

**optix** · 18th September 2020, 21:51

Originally Posted by ryanb741

Get into Ethereum bruv

Ryan

Just stop.

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**wileeeeeey** · 18th September 2020, 22:27

Originally Posted by mr noble

I heard a rumour from a neighbour who has a relative in parliament, that Boris is not well and not recovered from his CV bout.
Apparently he is going to resign in January after we’ve Brexited.

Not sure how true or what impact that would have?

Rishi for PM?

Second time I've read that on this forum. Not the neighbour part but the rest.

**Boss13** · 18th September 2020, 22:39

Originally Posted by mr noble

I heard a rumour from a neighbour who has a relative in parliament, that Boris is not well and not recovered from his CV bout.
Apparently he is going to resign in January after we’ve Brexited.

Not sure how true or what impact that would have?

Rishi for PM?

A work colleague who apparently has a friend working at No10 told me the same. Who knows if these are fantasy rumours or have some foundation behind them.

**ryanb741** · 18th September 2020, 23:02

Originally Posted by mr noble

Could look back in 3 years and think what an amazing time to have bought into IAG.......or they could go pop.

I lucked out and sold IAG the day before the 30% tanking earlier this week. I was less clever however by using that money to buy EZJ.

Overall my performance of buying individual shares vs buying into funds would indicate that fund managers know a damn sight more about investing than I do! My strategy was to buy 'no brainers' at the bottom 'knowing' they were bound to increase massively. My 'no brainers' were IAG (sold at a tiny profit but for most of the time they were a loss), microfocus (currently 20% down), Lloyd's (currently 8% down), Boohoo (currently 18% up) and then when I sold IAG I put it into Easyjet (10% down double-quick).

Sticking to funds now unless I really like the company regardless of price (AstraZeneca is the only one that qualifies).

Fundsmith is having a rotten run of late btw.

**optix** · 18th September 2020, 23:16

Raffe - Thoughts on the short sellers on FUTR?

It’s been a good ride owning their shares but now it seems overvalued, based on the new high this week.

* disclosure I sold out a multi year position and topping up in covid this week.

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**optix** · 18th September 2020, 23:20

Originally Posted by ryanb741

I lucked out and sold IAG the day before the 30% tanking earlier this week. I was less clever however by using that money to buy EZJ.

Overall my performance of buying individual shares vs buying into funds would indicate that fund managers know a damn sight more about investing than I do! My strategy was to buy 'no brainers' at the bottom 'knowing' they were bound to increase massively. My 'no brainers' were IAG (sold at a tiny profit but for most of the time they were a loss), microfocus (currently 20% down), Lloyd's (currently 8% down), Boohoo (currently 18% up) and then when I sold IAG I put it into Easyjet (10% down double-quick).

Sticking to funds now unless I really like the company regardless of price (AstraZeneca is the only one that qualifies).

Fundsmith is having a rotten run of late btw.

I got out of IAG earlier in the month, was a quick in and out within the sipp.

I was tempted to put into wizz over easyjet but topped up my S4 stake. Sorrel has done wonders with it.

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**Raffe** · 19th September 2020, 08:31

Originally Posted by optix

Raffe - Thoughts on the short sellers on FUTR?

It’s been a good ride owning their shares but now it seems overvalued, based on the new high this week.

* disclosure I sold out a multi year position and topping up in covid this week.

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No opinion, sorry.

**Devonian** · 19th September 2020, 08:38

Originally Posted by mr noble

I heard a rumour from a neighbour who has a relative in parliament, that Boris is not well and not recovered from his CV bout.
Apparently he is going to resign in January after we’ve Brexited.

Not sure how true or what impact that would have?

Rishi for PM?

This is old news though. Someone, maybe his father in law or Cummings father in law told a journalist this two or three weeks ago and he’s denied it. Who knows if there’s any truth to it.

**Raffe** · 19th September 2020, 08:50

Originally Posted by ryanb741

I lucked out and sold IAG the day before the 30% tanking earlier this week. (...)

I cannot believe this needs explaining, but IAG did not drop by 30% on Monday - in fact the share price performance was marginally positive. Holders of IAG stock were granted subscription rights to buy new shares at EUR 0.92 (three new shares for two existing shares), which means they are owning their IAG shares like before plus an option to purchase new shares at a discount. The subscription rights were listed on the stock exchange and investors can decide to sell them for cash or exercise them into new shares. Trading in the rights will stop on 25 September and there are oftentimes strange patterns towards the end of the trading period, when cheap right can be bought because banks are dumping the rights of those customers who haven't reacted so far.

The mathematics are explained here and the actions which shareholders need to take are here.

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