A long but interesting read
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...orthinking.pdf
A long but interesting read
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...orthinking.pdf
I am flabbergasted that the head of an investment firm wouldn't know how US GDP growth is expressed versus the rest of the world. Any economics student learns that within the first five minutes of their first course. Other than that, I find it interesting, if somewhat off the rails at times (the thing with an infinite P/E ratio is rather bollocks as he forgets the risk premium).
But always interesting to read from people who have an open mind.
If you are interested in free thinkers, I can recommend James Montier: here.
Just had my annual statement through the post and I'm -5.2%. I was expecting to be at least -10% if not more.
My future invest will be in a Grand Seiko because GS is currently undervalued
Don't miss the Warren Buffet versus Winkelvoss Bros fight, featuring Elon Musk and Davey Day Trader.
The world is coming to its end, probably before next weekend. Better buy gold, silver and Bitcoin.
'Elon Musk is going to destroy gold '
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Everyone talking about the 'big correction '. When second wave hits, winter spike hits, Trump is thumped, blah blah blah
Will still be stuff to buy, like shares in food banks
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I follow this thread avidly and it has contributed to my reaching the (potentially wrong) conclusion that the equities market is overheated. So I've decided to reallocate my pension out of S&P 500 and FTSE 250 tracker funds for the time being (hopefully a matter of months rather than years) and am considering putting it all into Gilts funds. Grateful for any advice/suggestions (along the lines of 'safe haven' rather than silver or Tesla!). Thanks
Thank you Raffe - your opinion is one I value
For the short term cash is king imho.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I have done it.
On Friday I bought shares in Barrick Gold.
I am not usually one to track the Sage of Omaha, but this move actually makes sense. If Gold really sees demand increasing, I want to own a profitable mining company as a leveraged bet on the underlying gold price. It is only a small position (5%9 and I have no intention to change that, but from a portfolio diversification point of view, this should work well.
That doesn't mean I think Gold should go higher, I am just acknowledging it may well move higher.
...
edit: ah, raffe responded far more eloquently on the fixed income question
on gold, i think the risk of inflation can't be ruled out... so some exposure does make sense to me.
Last edited by robinsongreen68; 16th August 2020 at 10:46.
What made you choose ABX over any other miners, Raffe? And why a miner over a gold ETC like SGLN?
Just curious and keen to learn from you.
Warren Buffet has just bought into Barrick gold. He certainly knows a thing or two.
I don't want to own gold, I want to own a company. No way I would ever buy gold, much less an ETC.
By the way, ABX is now GOLD, since the Rangold merger. I admit I haven't done research other that they are cash flow positive - no way I have an edge over Buffet and never forget the power of the announcement that Buffet is in. Just going with the flow.
Indeed. GOLD != [Gg]old.
I have a few million lira notes I collected some years ago on a business trip to Istanbul.
I recall my taxi to the hotel cost 14 million.
I have gifted them to young nieces and nephews over the years.
Gifted them their first million.
Holding capital for residents is a tricky business with decades of history with hyper inflation.
Time flies ...
Nice open for Barrick today. Up 10%. Good job Raffe.
GOLD isn’t listed on the HL platform.
They have ABX but not GOLD.
No idea if it’s the same or a different share.
On the basis that if it’s good enough for Warren, it’s good enough for me....I did do a fill or kill order at 37CAD last night, but sadly it got killed rather than filled at 2.30pm today. Oh well.
Last edited by mr noble; 17th August 2020 at 17:27.
I suppose it's the same share, Barrick traded under ABX until a couple of years ago in NY and still does in Toronto.
What is it with these fill or kill orders? In which context would those make any sense at all? I heard Ryan mentioning them a few times, most nonsensical order type I have ever heard of.
You can’t buy the share when the market is closed, so rather than sit at the desk waiting for the 14.30GMT bell to toll, you just do an order which is executed when the market opens. If the price you input is attainable the order completes (and the best price that can be had) and if the price has already gone up then your order can’t be completed so it gets “killed”.
I’m sure you already knew all that.
I hoped the computer would bang in my order at Friday’s close price, but when I looked at about 14.33GMT ABX was already up 10%. I wasn’t as keen to buy in at that level.
I know what a FOK order does. What I do not understand is why you would kill it if it doesn't fill at the open? Why not just place a limit order and buy your shares if the market gets to your desired level after the opening auction? What's the difference if it gets filled at the open or afterwards? If you keep using these, you must miss one hell of a lot of executions because you delete your order just because it doesn't fill on the first trade of the day.
Also, given that Barrick already traded at USD 29,14 (= CAD 38.46) after hours in New York, it was extremely unlikely that your level would be reached, especially not at the open.
I love this thread but some of the language is way over my head, think I need to take a crash course in investing!!
You don’t get that option on HL outside trading hours.
It’s either wait for the market to open and do a regular buy or it’s a fill/kill order.
I thought that was strange too and would have happily just set a buy price.
I suspect it’s because it’s on a foreign exchange. I’m pretty sure you can set a limit order outside of LSE trading hours.