That report isn't validated it is more of a discussion piece. I'm interested in what I believe we are about to learn from this
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rce=reddit.com
BP rallying strongly on the basis that the divi is safe for this year. Divi is about 12% based on current share price.
You have to take a long term view. Selling BP shares below £3 is madness. Not sure they even broke £3 during the Macondo incident, and that nearly broke the company with liabilities of $60bn.
That report isn't validated it is more of a discussion piece. I'm interested in what I believe we are about to learn from this
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rce=reddit.com
I can’t disagree with this however if the tests are sensitive and specific enough, and prove many people have already had COVID-19 without symptoms as some experts are now beginning to suspect, it could limit the economic suffering quite considerably IMO.
Lots of ifs and buts, granted, but I’m hopeful.
I honestly can’t see the 13-15% market rally of the last 2 days lasting, all because the USA announced a 2 trillion dollar stimulus whilst the number of cases skyrockets( and the economic damage will continue to worsen). Anyone else think the market will lose its gains in the next few days/week?
If you are looking for a trigger for further volatility, look no further than today's release of US jobless claims for last week. I have never seen such a wide array of forecasts, from 860k to 4 million people having been laid off in one single week (and before any area of the US went into lockdown).
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
You need to explain me how this works. Tuesday evening you go in, Wednesday morning you say you are up 14% and Thursday morning you say you sold Thursday evening at +14%?
There is a risk that you are mistaken the last published price for the one you are getting for your transactions. You can never trade on historic prices, but your trades will be executed at the next opportunity after you placed the order. If you placed a buy order on Tuesday evening, you will likely have traded at some time during yesterday morning. If you then placed a sell order yesterday evening, that order will be executed today. In all likelihood, that trade will cost you money with European markets forecast to open in the negative.
On a more fruity note
Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technolog...medium=custom7
A glass of OJ a day keeps the corona away happily we have our own little orchard of orange and a grapefruit trees, that was a sustainable, solid investment.
Dunno what shares or fund you are buying/selling and how big a pot you are playing with but well done if you have boosted 14% in such a short time, highly risky imho.
The funds I invest in mostly trade once a day at noon and you have to make your order before 11 and in some cases earlier to get the noon price. In these markets the lag could cost you dearly.
One advantage of investment trusts is they trade on spot price all day.
Last edited by Montello; 26th March 2020 at 10:43.
I placed a sell order to cash in my entire SIPP holding yesterday morning.
Spent all day worrying about whether it’s the right thing to do.
Woke up having decided that I’ve run my SIPP for the last 15 years on the simple rules of a passive investing “do nothing” strategy, so to suddenly decide upon a totally different strategy now would be completely daft.
I am pretty sure the markets will go lower before they recover, maybe another 10-30% lower, who knows, but with 15 years until I retire, hopefully the blip will just be another like 2008 by then.
I did sell out of half of my ISA. Sold Lindsell Train and sold my Jupiter Global Emerging markets fund which I only own because my best pal runs it. (Don’t tell him I’ve sold out!)
I did that so that there’s a good chunk of cash and I can go back into an ETF which is quicker to buy and sell than funds, as you get the spot price like when buying shares.
Happy to play with the ISA but it’s too dangerous to mess with the pension.
If you have a long way to go before you retire, I’d say you’re better to be in the market looking out than outside looking in. Missing the bounce could be a lot more costly than avoiding some of the dip.
As an interested observer of the Markets, with no expertise at all, I am wondering if under these unprecendented circumstances we are going to be seeing the dead cat bounce a few more times before a real sustainable approach to the virus is identified. Any thoughts from the more experienced on this?
Isn't that what usually happens anyway, a couple of bounces before another precipitous plunge I expect, I claim no expertise.
the £/Euro is doing it's usual thing ....£ stronger overnight and in the morning that gradually reverses as we get into the day
I'm gradually selling Euros, but the predictions of parity do not seem to be proving correct
IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depression. There is a ton of liquidity from the central banks plus a virus that will be found out to be more benign than feared. Final caveat I know nothing about investing so ignoring what I say would be a sensible thing to do but I just don't see this being the same as 1929.- - - Updated - - -
IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depressions. There is a ton of liquidity from the central banks plus a virus that will be found out to be more benign than feared. Final caveat I know nothing about investing so ignoring what I say would be a sensible thing to do but I just don't see this being the same as 1929.
True I placed the sell order last night on HL. It will go through sometime today so yes if there are market declines today it will be less than 14%. Currently markets around 2.5% down so I may net out around 11%. C'est la vie. I'm still around 17% down on January as I suspect most people are
mr noble logic would say that if you genuinely thought the markets will drop 10-30% then you should be on the sidelines for now. Would an idea of going 50% cash and 50% still in the market be worth considering to hedge your bets? Might reduce your worry slightly?
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With regards to selling funds and how long it takes, could be individual shares in a SIPP as opposed to funds? I’m out the market at present but normally hold ftse shares and they are bought and sold immediately.
Most funds have a valuation point of noon, but not all. This information is readily available on the fund fact sheets.
HL require your order to be placed prior to 8am to get the noon price that day. I believe they can take an order over the phone after 8 and still get the noon price but that is discretionary and depends on the fund. Given how busy they are I think you’d struggle.
With the Fidelity platform and order placed before 11 with settle at noon. So in this respect the platform is better.
Obviously individual stocks and investment trusts trade on spot prices whilst markets are open.
we should start our own Investment Club?
Raffe can be the Chairman
what's today's tip
(from me - the Transferwise Euro to £ rates seems to be as good as the Currency Brokers)
A general fund yes but individual shares no. For example Carnival went up over 25% in one day so was just wondering if they were those type of holdings.
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That aside I have been contacted by someone (Not a client just wanted an opinion) who has £1.5m in a family trust (gift trust) where they draw 5% per annum. Income is the key as the beneficiary will gets whatever’s left’ so to speak. They have decided to liquidate the various holdings into cash for the time being and were told it could take between 1 and 5 days due to the unprecedented withdrawals. With Old Mutual/ Quilters who I Have dealings with and normally it’s request before 10am and sold by the next day.
I was tempted with IAG shares. Currently a third of what they were a month ago. Sat on £7bn cash pile and seemingly posturing to take advantage of other airlines that are unlikely to be able to weather the storm. Airlines...a risky bet or the first to take the hit in times of crisis and potential winners in a recovery?
If you've got to ask the question of others, I'd be giving it a miss, but everyones attitude to risk is different. Frankly there's a lot of the get rich quick feeling in the air, partly because the US has deployed, what was it a couple of trillion, which was the objective of course, though it seems likely much more may well be required, gulp, I'm staying put for now.
I'm feeling great with cash at the moment.
a positive thought - if the value of your Stocks/Shares investments, in total, is higher than the original cost you are still ahead of the game
You missed the next point I made about the likelihood of missing the bounce and gains on the way back up and facing the possibility of having to buy back in at a higher price.
I read a few pieces about market timing and all of them said that at times like this it’s usually safer to just sit tight and do nothing that to try to time the markets.
In that last big dip in 2008, the piece said something like, if you’d missed 3 of the biggest rebound days because you were out of the market, you’d end up down for years longer than if you’d done nothing.
Plus, when I say “markets may go down another 10-30%”, I’m referring to the FTSE 100/250 Dow/S&P etc, but most people’s SIPP money is likely all in finds like Vanguard LS80 and other similar equity trackers, which won’t see the same ups/downs as the main indexes as they have an element of hedge.
Good idea about maybe cashing 50% out to hedge it all.
I did sell about 70% of the funds in my ISA, but not brave enough to play with my pension, even though I’m expecting it to drop further before it recovers.
It’s just been very painful watching circa £100k wiped off the total in the the last few weeks!
A selfish outlook to have at this horrible time, it must be said, but no harm in discussing it all.
I know, been in the market for 25 years.
I am just making the point that I don't think Ryan has made more than a tiny profit on this particular transaction, if any at all. He is yet to tell us what he invested in, unless he picked the winner of the day it will be almost impossible to record this type of gain. The way he communicates about it tells me he does not know how the trading works, which makes it very unlikely that he hit a bullseye.
Came in closer to the high end of expectations: 3,283,000 first-time claims. That’s the highest level in history, and nearly five times the highest level of claims seen during the Great Recession.
Noted, wasn’t clear if you had jumped or not.
As Raffe stated, you need a 100% gain to recover a 50% drop so limiting losses is more important than missing a few gains.
Plenty of examples to support all options. I’m in preserving capital mode as I’m too near retirement to wait for slow recovery.
Would there be any difference if the figures were adjusted for population increases over the years or any other factors, when comparing to the Great Recession, or would it be a drop in the ocean?
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I'd like to know this too - trying to do my own research!
What I don't really get...if we come out of this with a 'V' or 'U' shaped dip to the economy as a whole but in order to keep things afloat the governments of the world have just spent trillions, do we see an affect on our daily lives and what is this effect? Are we back to a seriously long period of austerity to shore up the central coffers again? Will all long term plans to invest that were part of the election manifesto have to be changed?
Also, if you are in the super-rich category, do you end up better off because there will be a lot of other people who can't stay afloat...ie is it relative or does everyone suffer economically equally?
Sorry...really basic macro-economics questions that I find hard to understand/link global economics with actual change to individuals lives!