Difficult to argue with this but it may go further. I'd venture that more Rolex are owned by the 'average' Joe than the elite. Average Joe (a group I consider myself to be part of) is likely to feel the pinch in the coming weeks and months. If they close the schools, my income will literally fall to zero.
This. It will be a combination of an increase in watches for sale, and a drop in demand, sum will be greater than the parts.... After looking at my shares drop last few days, it would be hard to summon the urge to buy say, a 116500LN at list price, even though I can technically afford it.... it just doesn't feel like an intelligent thing to blow money on anymore, plus it's not fun.... I'm sure I'm not alone in this sentiment right now.
We certainly seem to be heading towards a buyers market at present and if people need to sell watches for financial reasons in the coming weeks and months that situation will only get stronger and prices being asked for and ultimately achieved by the seller will be lower.
There will always be watches that buck the trend though.
Chrono24 for the optimistic seller that doesn't mind his watch lying unsold for a year
Generally SC has realistic prices and the watches shift quickly.
I'd say the SC prices are more indicative of value and I have no reason to talk prices down as I own a few but in a recession prices will fall.
The other thing is watchfinder are bidding shocking on all buying in which reflects on current things too I would say
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Last edited by Gavbaz; 16th March 2020 at 21:24.
Doesn't Watchcharts show you the actual selling prices from _all_ watch marketplaces?
https://watchcharts.com/
PS: The owner published one of my blog articles today (with my permission of course). I wasn't aware of that site before that.
Last edited by JPE; 16th March 2020 at 21:33.
Rolex and probably every manufacturer could close up for the rest of the Year, quite frankly no one cares right now about Rolex or Omega etc. The rich are lossing million’s upon millions on the stock market every day and their dwindling fortunes cannot save them from this virus, every one else is looking at their families, jobs, can they get some bread and milk tomorrow.
And yet the grey dealer I know is clamouring for more stock as he's getting enquiries from outside the UK every day he can't keep up with. The UK is still the cheapest place for EU buyers to buy from.
Maybe two weeks ago (and before that) he was getting enquiries.
You’re in lock down in France, Spain, Italy and you can’t buy bread and milk without queuing for a couple of hours on the Continent, but the grey dealer is still getting enquiries he can’t keep up with.
Unlikely.
The great thing is that Rolex is extremely liquid. If push comes to shove, and I hope it doesn’t but it might, you can liquidate your Rolex and get a good chunk of change.
Whatever we think about other brands, they’re just not as easily sold for the cash we want for them.
The bigger theme here is that watches are a luxury we may not need in a world where we struggle for basics like bog roll and pasta...
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That assumes that there is a fair pool of people who are looking to buy luxury watches in a time of vast uncertainty. it also assumes that these people will not do the sensible thing and just hold off buying immediately and let the market fall as more people put their watches up for sale, supply and demand and all that.
I actually don't think it will be to easy to sell Rolex at the moment, selling into a falling market is always difficult at the best of times and these are not the best of times.
Mitch
There seems to be quite a few Rolex's appearing on SC this week, maybe the impact has started.
Average joes who dropped amplified coin on' hard' to get Rolex's will be struggling inside a couple of months since most have little if any savings to fall back on and the job losses have already begun. Rolex may need to start a buy back scheme to maintain 'brand ' value at this rate.
Your broader point is of course true, there will be fewer casual buyers in the system which could cool top dollar prices of old
Perhaps the market returns a little in favour of more modestly wealthy enthusiasts but I can’t see people selling up at big discounts just yet
Anything is possible though!
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Unlikely? What do you think I'm doing on here, posting for kicks?
I've bought watches from him and his father before him, he lives with my business partner-we have absolutely no reason to think he is lying to us. The UK is cheap for watches and it is easy to sell to the eurozone.
Good on him as far as I'm concerned-he's bucking the trend in a difficult time.
I only own 2 modern Rolex so I don't really have an axe to grind but I think this black swan may even exasperate the bubble as long as we're not fighting in the streets for food and water (not completely unthinkable I grant you).
Understood. However, I've always lived well within my means. Without wishing to do a 'Skyman', I have next to no mortgage and money in the bank so I can ride this out for many years before I need to resort to selling my watches. By then I imagine Trump will have nuked China and it'll all be over for the human race anyway. I've also put the wheels in motion to considerably diversify my business so that I can operate in the current climate and I'm hopeful that I'll be able to get back to a decent income sooner rather than later (or dare I even say no dip in income if I get my skates on).
I spoke to Longines CH this morning. Many Swiss watch companies have already closed and staff are working from home. How long this might last is as yet unknown, so I presume outstanding repairs are going to take a while to come back to their owners. Curious that most independents work from home and are therfore already in essence, self isolating. But their repairs continue.
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I’ve counted 8 Rolex SS sports models offered on SC so far this week, and it’s still only Thursday.
In the boom times of mid 2019 you where lucky to see one per month.
You say it’s a buyers market but being a health issue controlling behaviour it effects everyone. Who is wanting to buy watches at the moment?
A few months ago people may have been thinking “hmm, could buy a vintage sub”. Now even if some saw 1680 for £500 they wouldn’t be buying it as their jobs are gone or soon to go. You May think that sounds crazy but rewind a few weeks and you have £10k in savings and your job is cushty etc and you think, heck I’ll buy an £8k rolex and just save back up again, it’ll always be worth £8k. You don’t buy it and today find your job is gone. You still have your £10k but no job and people saying “it’s a year of doom n gloom” you’re thinking, shite my mortgage is £1k and all the bills etc. That £8k Rolex in a relatively comfy position thought is now worth less than a tin of beans to you.
I don’t really see it as a case of a certain Rolex was £10k last week and you could be a ‘lucky buyer’ and get it for £9000 this week. If it drops a lot so fast, you’ll always be thinking it’ll drop more next week etc. What’s the magic number today?
Who’s willing to put their money and say what they’d pay? Maybe retired folk with no mortgage but even then if they have ‘kids’ it’d be a bit much buying a luxury watch when your daughter is crying with depression because her job has gone and she’s about to lose her world.
It is worrying times for everyone with a lot of uncertainties.
I feel for anyone that got caught up in the whole bubble and can see the market returning to how things were pre 2017 on watches with discounts on rrp.
I completely agree with everything you say. We are effectively saying the same thing from different angles. You have painted the picture of the once potential buyer who has to prioritise life over a shiny trinket and quite right, but as highlighted below 10 Rolex (I haven't counted) listed on SC in recent times shows that maybe people need to sell for the exact same reasons.
Putting the rights and wrongs and reasons to one side a flood of any market place will depress prices and if the numbers of buyers are heavily reduced, anyone lucky enough to be actually looking to buy to some degree has the field to themselves. That is what I was saying, things will favour anyone with cash looking to buy at this time. That will apply equally to both new and second hand.
Plus a lot of watches that came into circulation on the market were bought on credit - you'd be mad to spunk thousands on credit on a watch at the moment (which from the way Goldsmiths et al are sending me emails is already starting to bit).
Bog roll
On the first page of SC righ now, 3 SDs, 3 GMTs ( one coke, pepsi and batman), one explorer and 2 rolesor yachtmasters (platinum with blue dial and another which i didn't scroll to the op, think it is a steel and gold one). I know there was a hulk, a kermit, a platinum yachty with platinum dial and I think some TT subs earlier in the week. And that is just the sports. I feel sad that people are in a position where they need cash already, I guess lots of people are facing businesses folding or redundancy and their collection is their safety net. For those that held them as an investment its probably no more painful than taking savings from a building society account but its sad that there are lots of people needing savings already.
I could be tempted by the hulk, or possibly the platinum yachty or the explorer or...well they are all nice watches, but....well.....no. Now is not the time to buy if risk averse as i am.
Swap for Rolex ?
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what rolex for the squits?