Reply With QuoteLol, if only football was that easy. I can give my opinion on the most likely. ( imo )Originally Posted by MattG
Which team will produce the highest goal scorer? France
Who will reach the semi finals? (all 4 teams) France, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain
Despite knowing little to nothing about football, I've entered the office World Cup pool. We have to pick the score of each match. Who are currently the strong teams? I was going to go with the traditionally good teams, but I'm assuming it changes from WC to WC.
I also need to answer:
Which team will produce the highest goal scorer?
Who will reach the semi finals? (all 4 teams)
Not sure how much the prize is, but if I win I'll make a decent sized donation to the fundraiser.
Lol, if only football was that easy. I can give my opinion on the most likely. ( imo )
Which team will produce the highest goal scorer? France
Who will reach the semi finals? (all 4 teams) France, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain
It's a bit early really, They won't have had time to fix it yet, There are players to be bribed, Officials to pay out, and loads of payouts/backhands and bribery before they decide who will win, Leave it a while, Or bet on British football that is fixed well in front!
I assume this is a joke referring to the recent Qatar news story rather than a serious insinuation that the World Cup is completely fixed in terms of who wins??
Last edited by mr_fantazmo; 10th June 2014 at 22:53.
Which team will produce the highest goal scorer? Germany
Who will reach the semi finals? (all 4 teams) Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina
In my opinion there is no chance that some elements of the football will be influenced from outside the game. Whether it be gambling, politics or drug cheats the product will often be tainted.
Will it be enough to change who would win, (other than performance enhancing drugs) I doubt it, but you'd have to be very naïve to think that gambling syndicates don't have their fingers in a lot of pies.
I've pretty much decided to boycott this world cup. The shenanigans in Qatar have really spoiled it for me. Not just the bribery, but the 100s of people that are dying in that slave state so you can watch it. It's disgusting, and by watching, you are complicit.
Brail to be top scorers easy group plenty of fire power
That was my point, But better put thanks, There is FAR too much money and too many hangers on for it not to be bent, Looking at the number of fiddled games and bent players and officials in Britain alone it would be very naive to think there was any legitimacy left.
The World Cup usually throws up the odd freak result or two which sinks a lot of accumulator bets. The only easy bet I can see is a double on Brazil and Argentina topping their groups at odds of 1/5 and 1/6 which gives you a 40% profit on your stake. Not a very exciting bet admittedly but it depends on how you look at these things.
Last edited by KavKav; 12th June 2014 at 06:14.
Spain and Chile must get shed loads
Without doubt they could bothhitduble figures against Australia who won't have a chance
Spain will progress well but if looking at most goals surely the whipping boys are oz?
Ivory Coast were 200/1 to win the World Cup on the Betfair exchange a month or so back. Backed them at that price as they have an easy group, once they qualify for the knockout stages they will go down to 40/1 or so at which point you can trade out for a 500% profit.
Last edited by ryanb741; 12th June 2014 at 20:51. Reason: edit
You will only make a profit if they win.
Agree, you've a locked in risk free profit on paper, but you will only realise that if they win...
Which they won't.
Apologies, I could actually 'green' up with stakes that guarantee an equal profit whether they win or lose, I should have explained that part better
In reality though I would try to maximise profits on the lay side as it is highly unlikely Ivory Coast will win. So with stakes at £100 at 200 gives profit of £19,900 if Ivory Coast wins the cup. They get through the group and the odds come into 40. I lay Ivory Coast for £497.50 at 40 with a liability of £19,900. If Ivory Coast don't win the cup I win £397.50 (£497.50 for the lay minus the £100 stake for the back). If Ivory Coast wins the cup then I am neutral as I win £19,900 for the back but lose my £19,900 for the lay.
Last edited by ryanb741; 13th June 2014 at 00:01.
Another tip for the exchange guys - if either Netherlands or Spain lose their match with each other then BACK the loser to win the cup as the odds will drift out after the match and both teams will still get through the group so you can lay for the cup when the odds have come back in.
Tempted to do the same with Croatia as they are currently at 260 for the cup and I fancy them to qualify ahead of Mexico and Cameroon
Spain at 14 on the Betfair Exchange to win the cup. That's far too high, get involved there and if they end up having to play Brazil in the last 16 then lay them off for a small profit, if they don't play Brazil (unlikely) then keep the trade open
So, with two matches to go, how did everyone do?
I finally succumbed to the massive onslaught of TV advertising for bookies and chucked some money into one that offered to match my initial deposit with 'bonus' funds (pretty standard I suppose).
With my own money I've backed Germany to win but on an Asian Handicap bet ($1.57) so get my stake back if it's a draw.
With the 'bonus' bet I've put it all on Germany by at least two goals. ($4.75)
Just praying the Argies can't do it. :(
Ryan, I haven't understood a word of what you've said on this thread but it sounds fascinating.
Please understand, I'm not having a go - it's just double dutch to me.
Last edited by oldandgrumpy; 12th July 2014 at 11:37.
Luckily for you you didn't as you would have been out of pocket if you had followed some of the tips!Ryan, I haven't understood a word of what you've said on this thread but it sounds fascinating.
Please understand, I'm not having a go - it's just double dutch to me.
I managed to do really well in the knockout stages from quarter finals onwards, on the Betfair exchanges, laying the favourite in the match (where the favourites where favourite by some margin) and backing them in the winners' market in the expectation that quite a few of the games would go to extra time.
Most did, so I made a profit on the 'lay' as the favourite didn't win in 90 minutes but win either in extra time or on pens so I benefited from the odds coming down in the winners' market too.
So overall, the World Cup was good to me, made a lot of money on the Netherlands and Costa Rica in the winners' markets, and the knockout stages were bountiful too.
Finished around £1.5k up overall, based on stakes of £100 with minimal risk as I was able to hedge my position on other markets if things were taking a turn for the worse.
A colleague got me into Betfair exchanges a year ago (he was doing it full time making around £12k a month but wasn't useful when it came to getting a mortgage.....), and it's amazing how making the transition to a trader from a punter yields £££££. I know about 1% of what he does and have lots more to learn.
Well done Ryan.I think I follow, to an extent.
I came away with my money back. Well I will do once I've jumped through all the hoops of ID/bank verification etc.The draw was always on the cards really.
They actually gave me another $100 bonus bet as the match went into extra time so I'll see how long I can make that last.
Can't say I really enjoyed 'the experience'. Spent a few hours trying to work out a way to minimise my exposure yet leave myself with a potential big upside. My above bets don't look that complicated but I went through every possible permutation.
Once I signed up the website was a nightmare compared to just viewing odds whilst logged out and I was a bit concerned that I didn't receive email confirmation of my bets.
All in all I ended up in a bit of a state for the whole of Sunday (wasted the day) and finished off sleeping right through the entire final.
Admire what you and your mate can achieve but it doesn't look like it's for me. Just glad I came away unscathed really.
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