Corona property prices

[PJdB]

Before lockdown I was considering a buy to let, - I am also considering moving. Just wondering what people's thoughts are on how property prices will pan out over the next 6 - 12 - 24 months? Is a downturn inevitable, given the expected recession? (Also given that thousands of new properties have been created over the last couple of years, decreasing demand), or do you think demand it just still too high etc, that it won't waver... or?

[Peter franks]

I think property has to go down although I read an article yesterday explaining why it would go up? But in all honesty it must drop considering what's coming, mass unemployment, redundancy etc.

As for buy to let that was finished before the pandemic, the government have removed all the perks,also now is not a good time to be a landlord trust me I know, plenty of tenants unable/not paying/very little help available.
Obviously in uncertain times people may wish to invest in tangible assets rather than crazy stocks but I don't think its enough to save property.
I would sit it out for a while as we are not at the bottom yet and no one really knows where will end up.

Sent from my SM-G960F using TZ-UK mobile app

[Christian]

I think one persons view is as much of a guess as the next and any one of us isn’t any more expert in this than others. This is a completely different situation to 2008 so I don’t think history is a good indicator either.


If I was investing, personally, I’d wait to see how things pan out in 6-months before jumping in as I don’t think the market has had time to make any reaction yet, so it’s probably worth waiting until JRS payments cease and the economy as a whole reacts to this crisis.

Agree with the above though...being a buy-to-let landlord isn’t great any more with the extra stamp duty, zero mortgage relief and the risk you take with the increased rights of tenants.

[Passenger]

Location, location, location and price.

[Montello]

I have been tiring of BTL and had a property for sale that went on the market 2 weeks before lockdown.

I suspect prices are going south so I am renovating it now to re let.

The agent I work with is speculating that prices will hold up short term due to lack of supply but then likely will soften.

He believes that due to the 3Ds there will be new supply in the months to come and some increased demand for rental.

3D = Death, Divorce and Debts

It is true that political change has made BTL less attractive and more admin but with low borrowing rates it is undeniable that you can get nice leveraged long term investment if you think that long term property will hold up.

Given such poor returns in the bond markets I have seen more people being interested in property as a defensive investment so who knows the market may hold up better than we think. Equities seem to be holding up (based on what I don’t know ...)

[Ruggertech]

I have the cash ready for a second property to use as a combination holiday let/investment and bolt hole for us when its not in use, and have done for about a year. Very very glad I didn't pull the trigger on anything now, I'd be sitting on a property I cant use, cant rent out, and paying one and a half times or double council tax on. I'll certainly be waiting the rest of this year out and I'd advise anyone else to also unless they absolutely have to move or buy for unavoidable reasons. I can only see a drop in prices coming, perhaps not an actual crash, but definitely no rise.
Of course, if the majority of people who are looking to buy wait, it will create a self fulfilling prophecy because people who have to sell will have to drop prices.

Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk

[Christian]

We seem to have had a bit of a Mexican standoff for a good 2-years now with pretty stagnant prices where I am in London. I think there’s been low supply and less buying because people were originally waiting to see what happened with Brexit.

[Montello]

It was looking to buy I’d hold off.

If I manage a quick sale on mine I’ll be delighted but I’m expecting to re let.

[wileeeeeey]

I sold in October and I'm living with family. Was actively viewing houses every weekend up until Corona kicked in. We've now firmly decided to stay out of the market this year and revisit next year. Not an ideal situation but my opinion is prices will fall although I'm not going to be bold enough to guess by how much. That being said I think most property owners would welcome a 5% drop as a walk in the park compared to what we'll probably see.

A lot of banks are cutting products entirely for people with 15% or less deposit which will take some demand out. People are dying and probates will be up (one of our neighbours died weeks ago and still isn't buried, she's in the queue). Valuers are actively down valuing properties (see Devonian's thread) and although you can view properties now I would seriously question the sanity of anyone going to view them although I do understand the motivations of some vendors.

Typically you would still expect 'Death, Divorce and Debt' sales but even divorce will have to wait for most people. The only properties I'm seeing uploaded are from online agents who pay their reps a commission for new instructions.

[David_D]

(Also given that thousands of new properties have been created over the last couple of years, decreasing demand)

I’m pretty sure that the number of new builds each year for the last several years (decades probably) has been less than the increase in households through organic population growth as well as immigration. Whether immigration will reduce (or even go net emigration) post-Brexit is an interesting question. I doubt that building will catch up with increasing demand any time soon.

[Tooks]

I was about to complete a sale on a property I’ve been letting out for 3 years or so, but the buyer pulled out citing Covid just before lockdown started.

It’s sitting empty at the moment, and of course I’m having to pay the expenses on it, but it’s still for sale and apparently there are a number of buyers lined up to view it shortly.

I’ll give it a month and see if that translates into any offers, otherwise I’ll just let it out again until this all blows over.

Houses have not been ‘cheap’ for a couple of decades, and the long term price trend only ever goes one way.

[Devonian]

Having been involved in buy to let’s for over 25 years both personally and professionally, I’ll echo the sentiment that no one knows. They can’t know as what’s happened in the last two months is unprecedented in our lifetime. So we can only go on what we know and what we think . . . .

We know that property enquiries are going to be busy, starting now and especially out of lockdown. Why? Various reasons including the time of year, people having to move and also a lot of the people who would have viewed property in March, April and now May backing up. So short term demand could show a strong market which might be misleading.

We also know that Surveyors and lenders will be cautious (they’ve said as much) as they won’t know how this is going to play out. Lenders have been restricting LTV’s and some are restricting borrowing for furloughed staff and want to have proof that self employed people are still earning.

We also know that demand will be strong as there also seems to be a shortage of property, hence why so much building is going on.

What we don’t know is the true cost of this virus to employment, incomes and the economy as a whole. Whilst the furlough scheme is in place until October things are going to be unreflective of reality, as it’s a bit false.

We also don’t know whether property prices can hold up based on ‘borrowing affordability’. If people are going to earn less going forward (less commission, bonuses, overtime, pay rises, net profits, work etc) 4.5 times £30,000 income is a lot less than if it was £40,000. That market will automatically reduce if that happens. So whilst demand could remain strong, if it’s not affordable in the first place, demand is less relevant. Supply would have to become cheaper.

Personally If I needed to buy/move I’d just get on with it. If I didn’t and was uncertain I’d wait and see how it goes in the next couple of months.

The main positive is we will come back from this, that I’m sure of. It might be a hard time for a while but we’ll get there.

[Montello]

Having been involved in buy to let’s for over 25 years both personally and professionally, I’ll echo the sentiment that no one knows. They can’t know as what’s happened in the last two months is unprecedented in our lifetime. So we can only go on what we know and what we think . . . .

We know that property enquiries are going to be busy, starting now and especially out of lockdown. Why? Various reasons including the time of year, people having to move and also a lot of the people who would have viewed property in March, April and now May backing up. So short term demand could show a strong market which might be misleading.

We also know that Surveyors and lenders will be cautious (they’ve said as much) as they won’t know how this is going to play out. Lenders have been restricting LTV’s and some are restricting borrowing for furloughed staff and want to have proof that self employed people are still earning.

We also know that demand will be strong as there also seems to be a shortage of property, hence why so much building is going on.

What we don’t know is the true cost of this virus to employment, incomes and the economy as a whole. Whilst the furlough scheme is in place until October things are going to be unreflective of reality, as it’s a bit false.

We also don’t know whether property prices can hold up based on ‘borrowing affordability’. If people are going to earn less going forward (less commission, bonuses, overtime, pay rises, net profits, work etc) 4.5 times £30,000 income is a lot less than if it was £40,000. That market will automatically reduce if that happens. So whilst demand could remain strong, if it’s not affordable in the first place, demand is less relevant. Supply would have to become cheaper.

Personally If I needed to buy/move I’d just get on with it. If I didn’t and was uncertain I’d wait and see how it goes in the next couple of months.

The main positive is we will come back from this, that I’m sure of. It might be a hard time for a while but we’ll get there.

On the affordability point, property has been unaffordable for years yet that hasn’t stopped prices marching forward.

[Devonian]

On the affordability point, property has been unaffordable for years yet that hasn’t stopped prices marching forward.

Not for the people that have been buying though and it’s those that, if their incomes drop what they can borrow will drop, this pushing prices down. Property prices dropped in 2008 For various reasons, one of them because income multiples reduced on borrowings as lenders tightened up. If incomes dropped it will do the same.

[Omegamanic]

Location, location, location and price.

Absolutely.

I’d also say that with less mortgages being agreed there will obviously be less sales/moves - so less properties on the market overall.

It could well be a time for those who are stable/safe in their income with the ability to get a decent amount of low interest credit to take advantage.

Some people will be prepared to sell cheaper. Some people might have to sell, but others will just delay their planned house moves. Dependent on how many there are in each of those camps will help predict how big a decrease we might see.

All things being equal, I really don’t see there being a long term reduction in house prices, and I expect things to recover and go beyond current price prices quite easily within the next 3-5 years.

If you are able to take advantage of the current uncertainty then there is no time like the present.

[wileeeeeey]

Not for the people that have been buying though and it’s those that, if their incomes drop what they can borrow will drop, this pushing prices down. Property prices dropped in 2008 For various reasons, one of them because income multiples reduced on borrowings as lenders tightened up. If incomes dropped it will do the same.

Yep, property values are largely at the mercy of lender borrowing multipliers, what valuers are willing to value at (or what the underwriters will sign off on based on LTV) and what salaries employers are willing to offer.

Unemployment has been so low for so long meaning most employers were having to tempt employees out of their existing jobs, driving up wages which in turn partly helped to drive up property prices. This won't be happening now and that's before you get to headcount freezes and large scale redundancies.

As the furlough cost begins to be shared by employers and the government we will start to see more and more redundancies.

[Montello]

Valuations are already coming in soft.

I can see some softening but then all that happens is new instructions dry up and there is so little volume which holds prices.

That said if I were looking at BTL I’d hold off for at least 3-6 months so see what happens.

[Christian]

Valuations are already coming in soft.

I can see some softening but then all that happens is new instructions dry up and there is so little volume which holds prices.

I kind of figured this is what would happen. I guess for a proper drop in prices, you need lots of people to be forced to sell as in can’t pay the mortgage?

[Montello]

I kind of figured this is what would happen. I guess for a proper drop in prices, you need lots of people to be forced to sell as in can’t pay the mortgage?

Yes, well that goes back to the 3Ds. Interest rates being so low helps people hang on ... if we get some inflation and rate rises then that could trigger a problem but rate rises seems other worldly right now.

[Omegamanic]

Conversely, if a lot of people in 2nd or 3rd homes decide to downsize in order to take advantage of reducing their outgoings, or even paying off their mortgages, then there is a possibility of certain price points in the property market increasing.

It’s just far too early to have an educated guess at what might happen even in the very near future.

[Montello]

Conversely, if a lot of people in 2nd or 3rd homes decide to downsize in order to take advantage of reducing their outgoings, or even paying off their mortgages, then there is a possibility of certain price points in the property market increasing.

It’s just far too early to have an educated guess at what might happen even in the very near future.

Granted, it’s all speculation until it’s history. That said I’d say a drop is more likely than an increase. But then I have called equities wrong (at the moment) so what do I know ...

[hogthrob]

Unfortunately, I imagine there will be a higher than usual number of probate and divorce sales.

[kaiserphoenix]

I think its not just straightforward as prices going down.

The increased WFH aspect may benefit some properties as people are perhaps not forced to work in certain locations for example. It may even start a small "boom" in perhaps less central areas. Certainly areas with strong infrastructure in terms of for example fast broadband etc may benefit.

Secondly as many more people become unemployed, it may correspond with a rise in rentals or at least a strong rental as less people are able to buy and/or forced to sell.

As always different regions/locations will respond differently.

[hogthrob]

Secondly as many more people become unemployed, it may correspond with a rise in rentals or at least a strong rental as less people are able to buy and/or forced to sell.

That might depend on how willing landlords are to take unemployed tenants?

[kaiserphoenix]

That might depend on how willing landlords are to take unemployed tenants?

Sorry I meant not specifically unemployed people looking to rent but reduced salaries, reduced bonuses, increased cautiousness into buying, may lead into increased renting etc.

[Montello]

Sorry I meant not specifically unemployed people looking to rent but reduced salaries, reduced bonuses, increased cautiousness into buying, may lead into increased renting etc.

I can see more demand for rental

[thestore]

The only properties I'm seeing uploaded are from online agents who pay their reps a commission for new instructions.

I have certainly see quite a few new listings from standard agents in the last week in the area I'm looking (London). I'm due to exchange on my current place in the next couple of weeks, if something perfect had come on (even at pre-corona prices) I would have tried to keep my buyer waiting while I could progress a purchase, but I haven't found anything suitable yet so I will sell and rent for a while and see what happens.

I have read various reports and articles with varying predictions. There is talk of 'pent up' demand which could keep prices stable for a while. In reality I think there is too much uncertainty and too many chains that will fall through which will result in an initial softening of prices. I also think the market will be stagnant for a while and the bigger drops in price will happen towards the end of 2020 when reality has hit for more people.

[DavidL]

I have the cash ready for a second property to use as a combination holiday let/investment and bolt hole for us when its not in use, and have done for about a year. Very very glad I didn't pull the trigger on anything now, I'd be sitting on a property I cant use, cant rent out, and paying one and a half times or double council tax on. I'll certainly be waiting the rest of this year out and I'd advise anyone else to also unless they absolutely have to move or buy for unavoidable reasons. I can only see a drop in prices coming, perhaps not an actual crash, but definitely no rise.
Of course, if the majority of people who are looking to buy wait, it will create a self fulfilling prophecy because people who have to sell will have to drop prices.

Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk

I'd love you to be correct as we are in the same situation. But I'm just starting to see properties coming onto the market after a 6 week lull and the prices are no different to before all this.
Yes it's an asking price but if you are looking in the same sort of places we are, low stock, popular second/holiday rental area, I have a horrible feeling we aren't going to see much change.
We had an offer rejected just a few k shy of the asking price in December and part of me is very glad I still have the capital liquid as work is a tad slow but I still see it as a (yet another, we've had no luck at all in this search, if you discount bad luck) frustrated opportunity. If you had asked me in Jan if I thought we would get what we wanted I've had said yes eventually but now I'm not so sure.

[wileeeeeey]

I have certainly see quite a few new listings from standard agents in the last week in the area I'm looking (London). I'm due to exchange on my current place in the next couple of weeks, if something perfect had come on (even at pre-corona prices) I would have tried to keep my buyer waiting while I could progress a purchase, but I haven't found anything suitable yet so I will sell and rent for a while and see what happens.

Two new on today and both from local agents but at optimistic prices. Even pre-corona they would have been too much. Also some emails from agents asking if we're still looking and reminding us they're open. I have a friend who is a property photographer and he's dead at the minute but some people are asking him about virtual tours.

We're also looking in London although just -- we're a few minutes inside the M25.

[blackal]

Sorry I meant not specifically unemployed people looking to rent but reduced salaries, reduced bonuses, increased cautiousness into buying, may lead into increased renting etc.

I think that will be guaranteed. A vast number of previously-secure people, who would normally purchase - will have seen their property expectations hit forever.

[thestore]

Two new on today and both from local agents but at optimistic prices. Even pre-corona they would have been too much. Also some emails from agents asking if we're still looking and reminding us they're open. I have a friend who is a property photographer and he's dead at the minute but some people are asking him about virtual tours.

We're also looking in London although just -- we're a few minutes inside the M25.

I think that’s the nature of the market. When valuing, no agent is going to suggest a figure even 5% below the ‘pre-Covid’ amount because they’ll be scared the vendor will have had a higher valuation by another agent. In reality stuff will come on overvalued and transactions will take place in a few months at lower prices.

I think the only bargains to be had now will be for things that have already been on for a long time and the vendors are either very keen to, or need to sell.

This is all just my opinion of course.

[miguelh34]

I wonder about all the uni towns and cities. There just has to be a reduction in foreign students in the short term (this September) and the longer term as more goes online.

[Ruggertech]

I'd love you to be correct as we are in the same situation. But I'm just starting to see properties coming onto the market after a 6 week lull and the prices are no different to before all this.
Yes it's an asking price but if you are looking in the same sort of places we are, low stock, popular second/holiday rental area, I have a horrible feeling we aren't going to see much change.
We had an offer rejected just a few k shy of the asking price in December and part of me is very glad I still have the capital liquid as work is a tad slow but I still see it as a (yet another, we've had no luck at all in this search, if you discount bad luck) frustrated opportunity. If you had asked me in Jan if I thought we would get what we wanted I've had said yes eventually but now I'm not so sure.

Hi David, I guess people who already own holiday properties hope I'm wrong, and people who don't, you and me, hope I'm right. I have no idea yet, and I think it's far too soon to know if today's asking prices will hold or not.
I fear you could be right regarding properties in holiday let hotspots in particular not dropping far or at all. I've been following that market in certain parts of West and South Wales and some properties sit there for a few years as the owners aren't in a hurry to sell unlike someone selling their residential property to buy a new one, especially if they are getting good rental income in the meantime.
But we haven't yet seen the full or even partial extent of the recession that is coming, people are currently furloughed rather than laid off in many cases, most companies are hanging in there but its going to be dreadfull for many. As I say, cant say if there will be a price drop, but I just cant see that a rise is possible for a long time.


Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk

[Sahara]

Hi David, I guess people who already own holiday properties hope I'm wrong, and people who don't, you and me, hope I'm right. I have no idea yet, and I think it's far too soon to know if today's asking prices will hold or not.
I fear you could be right regarding properties in holiday let hotspots in particular not dropping far or at all. I've been following that market in certain parts of West and South Wales and some properties sit there for a few years as the owners aren't in a hurry to sell unlike someone selling their residential property to buy a new one, especially if they are getting good rental income in the meantime.
But we haven't yet seen the full or even partial extent of the recession that is coming, people are currently furloughed rather than laid off in many cases, most companies are hanging in there but its going to be dreadfull for many. As I say, cant say if there will be a price drop, but I just cant see that a rise is possible for a long time.


Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk

I would suspect in the short term ( next few years) people will be wanting to holiday at home and would expect prices to stay stable or a small increase.

[Ruggertech]

I would suspect in the short term ( next few years) people will be wanting to holiday at home and would expect prices to stay stable or a small increase.

Still cant see an increase, perhaps I dont want to if I'm honest with myself, but yes, what you are saying makes a lot of sense.

Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk

[Yeti]

Fact of the matter is the population grows bigger year on year with not enough housing stock to cover everybodies needs. London and the surrounding areas are a bubble which is imo due to the increased demand year on year. I’ve only ever witnessed property stagnating for a period and then marching on again. I’d say make your offers now, if you can get 10 per cent off you’ve done well, sit on it a few years and watch it go back to pre corona price and then another few years no doubt another run on prices and well all be saying why didn’t we buy when it was cheap...

[NickGaters]

Sadly there are scalpers out there already trying to take advantage of the situation. Much like hoovers in the forum sales. Just this last week my parents had an out the blue offer of £380k for their house - currently on the market for £440k. No viewing or other prior contact, just a call to the estate agent from a ‘cash buyer’ offering a derisory sum.

I hope many people don’t accept these derisory offers that are popping up. Ride the storm, don’t panic and my hope is that things settle down later in the year.

[tleefox]

House prices will follow the same trend they have done for the past 50 years - there will be a short term dip, as is the case in any recession, but this will stabilise and long term prices will rise.

[mrpgkennedy]

I would echo the nobody knows about prices but add the fact the country needs money
property is easy to tax, because they know where it is and who owns it, i'd expect second property taxes to really start cranking up on the logic anyone who has a second property can afford it
tenants rights are getting stronger
unemployment is going up
i can't see the rent part of universal credit going up

if i had a guess at prices, as long as interest rates are low, people can afford to stay where they are so the number of sales will be low, and i suspect it'll just stay in the logic, this is what its worth...
but inflation will spike with brexit and they won't be able to use interest rates to control it without crashing the housing market, we maybe facing a new period of low interest rates, high inflation which will end up lowering the prices in real terms

[Seamaster73]

House prices will follow the same trend they have done for the past 50 years - there will be a short term dip, as is the case in any recession, but this will stabilise and long term prices will rise.

Has there ever been a period commensurate with the typical mortgage term (20-25 years) when house prices in the UK have done anything other than rise?

If the "housepricecrash" fanatics couldn't get a result from the "credit crunch" of a decade ago, they ain't gonna get one from the current carry-on, when money is going to remain cheaper than its ever been.

[thestore]

Has there ever been a period commensurate with the typical mortgage term (20-25 years) when house prices in the UK have done anything other than rise?

If the "housepricecrash" fanatics couldn't get a result from the "credit crunch" of a decade ago, they ain't gonna get one from the current carry-on, when money is going to remain cheaper than its ever been.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting they will fall for the length of a typical mortgage, however no one wants to be in negativity equity, even if it’s temporarily.

[Seamaster73]

I don’t think anyone is suggesting they will fall for the length of a typical mortgage, however no one wants to be in negativity equity, even if it’s temporarily.

Then you shouldn't buy any asset. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

[thestore]

Then you shouldn't buy any asset. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

I understand that property is an ‘asset’ but it’s also a home. Wanting to own your own home and not wanting to buy just before a recession or fall in prices isn’t an unfair position. I have said earlier in the thread I would pay the ‘pre-corona’ price for the perfect property as I know it will recover in price in a few years.

[thegreatdogwood]

Nobody knows, but the risk is significantly greater on the downside for the immediate future, so if you don't have to do anything then don't.

[tleefox]

Has there ever been a period commensurate with the typical mortgage term (20-25 years) when house prices in the UK have done anything other than rise?

No, hence why I don't understand why people get in such a twist about it.

[Tooks]

I understand that property is an ‘asset’ but it’s also a home. Wanting to own your own home and not wanting to buy just before a recession or fall in prices isn’t an unfair position. I have said earlier in the thread I would pay the ‘pre-corona’ price for the perfect property as I know it will recover in price in a few years.

If you’re genuinely buying a ‘home’ then it’s even less important whether its value dips in the short term.

I think the almost obsessive interest in the value of our homes is unhealthy, but then we do live in a rather wealth obsessed country in my opinion.

[watch-nut]

been watching this thread with some interest, i agreed to purchase a property pre covid and whilst i haven't exchanged yet, I have decided to continue with it. In some respects its driven by need because sadly i'm getting a divorce, ive always been a home owner from the age of 25 so going in to rented fills me with dread as dead money and also because location wise i want to be as close as i can to my kids. Im taking the plunge anyway. its more important for me to have a home for the kids when they are with me, the economics of it all have gone out the window tbh.

I agree that too many look at these things in an asset driven way, i have been guilty of that in the past, a change in circumstances does alter your perspective though. Thats not to say a sensible approach shouldn't be applied but who knows what the long term looks like so unless you are buying something purely for investment purposes im not sure it really matters as long as negative equity doesn't become your burden

[Estoril-5]

A house near me went on for sale for £350k well before corona, it dropped after a short while to £340k which was slightly overpriced but I guess there was some fat in there for negotiating etc. It was a fixer upper done to a good contemporary standard, no chain etc. Was reduced this week for £320k. At that price I think its priced to sell, must be a desperate seller.

I think well see some prices that will return to acceptable and some that believe their asking is what it is worth.

If house prices fall that doesn't bother me as my house will drop in value and the house I move up should be cheaper, its all about the level of debt ill have rather than what I think my house is worth.

I am surprised at the number of houses popping up on Rightmove etc this week.

question to those in the know, could a 45 year old get a 30 year mortgage so potentially paying off the mortgage when they are 75?

[wileeeeeey]

watch-nut I don't blame you at all. Even in the worst times for property 'death divorce and debt' is what keeps the residential world spinning. it's what agents rely on and you'll be one of many. I think most of us would do the same in your situation while probably trying to chip the price to see if you can get a slightly better deal. Depends if you've had a survey yet etc tho. Best of luck.

[tleefox]

question to those in the know, could a 45 year old get a 30 year mortgage so potentially paying off the mortgage when they are 75?

Couldn't comment on those numbers particularly, but lending on terms past "normal" retirement age i.e. 65 is increasingly common, as it is widely accepted that in years to come, 65 will not be the "normal" retirement age.