Reply With QuoteIn one way i hope thew vintage rolly market takes a dive i would love a 1680 white but on eht other hand i want the new market to stay good so i can sell a few of my brand.
No-one knows how this credit crunch thing is going to pan out, but the general consensus is that 2009 may be a bit grim.
While new watch prices wont be affected, the vintage watch market could be up for a slight correction.
The reason I'm thinking this is that I have been doing a little research into how much a birth date Sub might set me back. If you look at what, say a 5513 Sub was fetching pre 2008 in comparison to post 2008, those things have really took off. Im just picking this brand as an example, I'm sure the same is true for many others.
If the housing market, car market and other sectors have been hit, could the watch market cop it too?
In one way i hope thew vintage rolly market takes a dive i would love a 1680 white but on eht other hand i want the new market to stay good so i can sell a few of my brand.
think the demand outweighs the supply on the vintage stuff
I'm watching vintage prices quite closely at the mo and have to say they are just going up.
Seems a LOT of demand and very little supply and the weak £ is meaning lots are getting snapped up from others with stronger currencies.
Not so sure how well sales of new models will go tbh....its these I think that will be hit as dealers will need to keep shifting stock.
Rolex prices here will keep going up purely because Rolex keep increasing them!
Currently the Uk is probably the best place to buy - the strength of the $ and the Euro for me has effectively killed buying from outside the UK. The rumored price rise from Rolex will be followed by others I guess but this is simply to balance the markets in terms of cost to buy.
Vintage (and correct) watches will still sell well.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
Have to agree, just looking at the massive recent change in exchange rate it is likely secondhand/vintage stuff will remain strong for a while at least. I guess it all depends on just how much the rest of the world is effected. If you believe gordo everyone is done for, if you talk to continentals they don't seem anything like as doom and gloom as us (unless you work for a car manufacturer that is).
I am not a rolex fan but all i can say is that the policy of many watch manufacturers to increase the prices of their products year after year is insane. They have a quite large profit margin and they sell them through watch boutiques, justifying their status as luxury goods (and adding an even higher markup) but as a watch enthusiast i don't feel like buying any of their over-inflated watches.
This is one of the reasons I prefer Japanese watches as they are more honest, and always offer high value for money. I would like the recession to last long enough to see these watch manufacturers suffer as they have been milking the crowd for too long.
Is it not the other way around? :?Originally Posted by redmond
Respect the past, live the present, protect the future
yip totally agreed jason :)
all the good stock collectors are just hoarding :wink:
and keeping in their own collections ,
vintage will always be about buying quality , the the good quality correct pieces will always fetch strong money
demand for good quality pieces still outstrip supply from what i have seen and heard.
Alan
Apart from some desirable 'sports' and 'military' models, there is no market for vintage watches. Us silly WISes aside, who do you know who wears vintage AND because it's vintage? I only know a couple of women who do that.
john
Costume jewellery. Ouch!!!
+1
I have always been astonished at Singapore and Hong Kong the watch capitals of the Far East. For the first time in the past ten years supply is far greater than demand in pretty much every category; new and vintage. While list prices are not coming down, greater discounts can be negociated and for the first time you will find that watches that are very limited and desirable are staying in the windows and shelves for weeks.
I don't think that the very top and the very rare vintage markets are going to collapse; more so the mid range and mass produced new watches (Rolex, Omega....) due to oversupply. You guys in the UK are lucky in the short term with your currency and prices being very low for the export market but long term you will see huge price increase due to the low pound exchange rate. I am very sure in order to get a grip on the market the manufacterers will reduce or just not increase production in order to keep in line with demand. Brands like Hublot with their Big Bang have in the past had 18-20 month waiting lists and it will be interesting to see if that will still be the case in one years time.
I think we will all see the real effect after Baselworld this year as up to now the producers were still fullfilling orders placed last year at that event.
I agree. It is like vintage cars. Excluding a few collectors, most of us like the modern comforts. There are always some timepieces that will be in demand, but the market for most vintage pieces is very soft.Apart from some desirable 'sports' and 'military' models, there is no market for vintage watches. Us silly WISes aside, who do you know who wears vintage AND because it's vintage? I only know a couple of women who do that.
john
DaveB
:lol: :lol: sorryIs it not the other way around? :?
Actually the style supplements of the Times, Telegraph and even the Mail have for some time been extolling their readers to buy vintage, especially Rolex. Often this place is mentioned as a source http://www.vintagewatchcompany.com/ [Seems expensive to me] I think that the vintage market may firm up because it will be seen to be seen to be a social "faux Pax" to be seen in a blinging wristclock in these austere times. However an understated vintage piece is seen as OK.Apart from some desirable 'sports' and 'military' models, there is no market for vintage watches. Us silly WISes aside, who do you know who wears vintage AND because it's vintage? I only know a couple of women who do that.
john
I think the new kids on the block - Graham, Bremont, new makers with fancy names that I've no interest in even Panerai?? will be the ones to feel the crunch. People will buy known brands, with qualities and residuals they can predict. Those manufactures without a history or sense of taste may find the coming few years challenging.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... tches.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/feature ... eauty.html
Regards
Tim
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