Reply With QuoteActual charts:
https://watchcharts.uk/watches/price_index
In a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley reported that the WatchCharts Overall Market Index — which tracks a basket of 60 luxury Swiss watches across 10 brands in the secondhand market — fell for the ninth straight quarter in the second quarter ended June 30.
Prices have been falling since the pandemic peak hit in the first quarter of 2022. Current prices in the second quarter fell sequentially compared to the first quarter by 2.1%, and year over year by 1.2%.
“The secondary market decline remains broad-based, with few brands seeing positive performance in the second quarter,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report.
Morgan Stanley believes the downward pressure on prices will continue throughout the year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rolex...151919533.html
Actual charts:
https://watchcharts.uk/watches/price_index
I think a lot on here would regard this as good news. I follow the grey prices because buying from an AD hasn’t been an option for many years now and the falling prices are visible. I applaud dealers like Watches of Distinction and Watches of Whitby who seem to be leaders in pushing the prices down. There are of course dealers who still think they are trading 3 years ago and I don’t even click much on their sites these days, good for a laugh, but you are unlikely to ever consider buying anything from them.
The real good thing is the small margin between the list price and the grey asking price, which must be squeezing the money men out of the game. I’m sure for some models the greys wouldn’t even buy in at list price. Some of the hot watches buck the trend, but seeing a White Ceramic Daytona below £20k and a BLRO Pepsi below £15k (all be it by pennies or a few pounds) is a step in the right direction.
When prices went bonkers a few years back it wasn’t clear to most of us if the greys were achieving their asking price. Clearly putting a couple of grand on a Submariner worked, but a Nautilus at over £100k and the second limited edition Omega Snoopy touching £40k (just short of 10 times the list price !!), did the well heeled fall for it, I’m not so sure.
All of this is good news for those on waiting lists and hoping to buy something and keep it, but with that will come an immediate depreciation of that watches market value when you leave the shop. Not an issue if you intend to keep it, but a factor which I’m sure will have many politely declining ‘the call’.
Yep. I know Chrono24 has to be taken with a pinch of salt, but used steel sports Rolex prices—which used to trek north inexorably—have been falling steadily for a while now.Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner
I am 50 in a couple of years so this trend is good news for me as I’ll be looking for a big watch and as you say not caring about second hand values.
Last edited by Alansmithee; 21st July 2024 at 12:37.
The bargain of the bunch at present is the SD43 with a list price around £11.6k these are selling in grey dealers below £10k on a regular basis. Begs the question why would anyone actually buy a new one. Other brands offer even better deals. I bought a Blancpain Fifty Fathoms for close to 50% of the list price. It was 4 years old and my old watch, but again illustrates that it would be crazy to buy new unless there was a reason to.
Bought my first SD43 For £8,350 and just under £9k I think for the second. Prices do go up but £11,650 is just too much.
I would rather go grey for a Sub Date or D-Blue.
Err - Rolex prices have risen 25% in four years. Looking at the BOE - inflation calcs - that’s much the same as the effect of inflation on monetary value.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mone...ion-calculator
Last edited by MartynJC (UK); 21st July 2024 at 15:33.
“ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG
Because most buyers would rather have a bend new item. You could ask the same question about any other product.
Agreed, but buyers choice. I bought a 10 month old car a year ago with 4,000 miles on the clock and saved £8k on the ‘on the road’ price. That to me seemed like a good deal, but I’m sure there are many others who would happily pay that extra £8k just to have a few delivery miles on the clock. I viewed it as let someone else pay the VAT and take the initial hit.
I only buy new from an AD, and don't buy them to stick in a safe and bring out in 3 years for a couple of grand profit. So good news I reckon. Perhaps the chancers will stop buying them and let us who really want them buy them instead.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Is that a Freudian slip ? meaning you have to bend over at the ADs ? :)
I’m hoping the same. I’d love to acquire some of those hard to get models but I think the cost of entry is still well beyond us mere mortals. Annoyingly I have seen some of those chancers wearing watches I want 😂
VAT in a car is just like any other ‘component’ (like the engine)
When you buy S/H you pay the most the market will stand for that S/H model (including VAT)- nothing to do with that pub-cliche “As soon as a car leaves the showroom it loses the VAT”
Discovering watch auctions was the turning point for me. I never wanted to go grey unless it was a model that was discontinued; and obviously there were wait times for things like Rolex and Patek at AD's. Auctions (like Watchcollecting.com, no affiliation) are the place to be though, IMO. Brand new watches available, sometimes stickered and often at way below list if they're PM pieces ... an absolute no brainer.
Recently I saw a white gold 41mm sub with blue ceramic dial for 26k plus fees (normally around 6% + VAT) and steel Daytonas, old and new, now regularly going for around 20k. Daytonas on oyster flex at around 27k to 30k as well which can't be that far off RRP.
Most interesting was that if you go back in the archives for some auctioneers, the hammer prices weren't that different even at the height of the craziness in late '21 and early '22. At one point, dealers were offering things like steel 5726's for 160k but they were still going at auction for way under 100k. More interesting still is that a lot of dealers advertise on these auction sites. You don't know who they are unless you buy from them but they have to declare that they are a trade listing. Presumably they're keen to shift certain pieces at realistic market prices but don't want to significantly drop their asking prices openly on their own websites.
If you've a keen eye and have the time you can sometimes see watches not making reserve and then popping up on those traders' websites ... I saw a platinum LE AP Offshore fail to reach reserve at 40k and then come up for sale on the dealer's site at 80k ... so there's obviously a limit to the hit they're willing to take.
why anyone would buy a sub (unless they really cant wear anything bigger) over the sd43 is beyond me at current grey prices, the SD43 is a corker.
Yep, size, I’d think for sure.
The SD43s are big chaps.
Lovely watch but I loved it more without the cyclops.
Of the current range, I like the ND Sub… very clean dial.
Wore mine to a wedding last night, they wear really well, probably because I'm used to wearing big watches with the Pam and Apple Watch Ultra. Pre-ceraminc subs do feel small and rattly to me these days (still love them though)
I did not understand why they included a cyclops in the last refresh, the SD has never had one
And then I saw a picture of a SD43 without the cyclops. If ever there was a case of a tiny movement in a large case this watch has it.
It looked so wrong. Comically bad.
The cyclops helps to balance this issue out.
The 4000 was the best ceramic SD, they should not have superseded it IMO
Last edited by Sinnlover; 26th July 2024 at 15:42.
100% and if my missus doesn’t give me my 124060 back I’m gonna have to get one.
Nautilus Aquanaut Royal Oak and sports Rolex - yes.
Omega Snoopy - no idea.
Love the SD 4000 but they’re well beyond my price range now. Wish I grabbed one when I saw it in Heathrow one time… tax free. One of those painful mistakes that still haunts me lol
Great news. The compressed margin will certainly squeeze out a lot of flipper / hot money as the return on capital diminishes or even goes negative if you’ve taken on too much inventory at peak.
Slower / longer sales cycle in the secondary market also means watch dealer’s return / revenue will fall. Overall a healthy market for collectors and long-term holders.
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I mistakenly listened to my wife in goldsmiths and bought a black bay after she said the 4000 looked too much like my 14060M. Daft mistake.
One other factor many overlooks is how aggressive manufactures have been in hiking their asking price for a full service. Omega / Rolex and most other "luxury" brands are asking north of 700 for a basic mechanical watch to get it serviced. Sure you can go for non-manufacture, but it' the same argument that if McD is increasing its price, others fast food joints will follow.
What this means is a) you are now losing a bunch of money on most new watch purchase (Rolex included - Datejust for example), and b) you are burning cash slowly each year pending next full service. Economically it's a terrible trade, not to mention how cash intensive it is to lock-up 10-15k in a watch that's hard to move on. Overtime I really do believe a lot of the hot money will leave the industry and new watch price will flatline for a bit (or just track inflation), and there will be a persistent discount on secondary market vs. new.
6 of the top 15 watches on SC are Rolex, supplies are definitely rising.
Just got back from 2 weeks at Disneys Yacht Club resort.
I have been going for quite a few years and it is normally like a Rolex convention with every other person sporting either a Sub or GMT.
This year it was almost exclusively smart watch or nothing. Amongst the younger guys pretty much nothing.
Are Rolex becoming uncool, maybe not but it would be amusing if it became the case after all the froth of the last few years.
That's a factor. Another one is being afeared of getting chibbed for it.
There's a tax payment due to HMRC at the end of the month for some if us. I'm sure it's just a coincidence but I've noticed an uptick in SC listings historically around these times.
Well I have sold all mine and I don't miss them one little bit.
Because there is nothing to miss on a modern Rolex. Apart of the perceived luxury element. If thats your thing.
I sold some ceramic models and I don't miss them either.
Selling to fund a tax payment?
Sounds rather strange. Surely folk don’t buy watches with money that they may subsequently need for another expected item of expenditure.
I have slowly come round to agreeing with that over recent times.
Together with the conceit that they are rare/hard to get when they pump out well over of 1million watches every year.
I always found myself a bit nervous of wearing them in anger as well due to the value and fussy features like the Oyster bracelet PCL's which look terrible very quickly unless you baby them.
Sure.
I’m afraid that Sales corner on this little part if the internet is hardly the wider market so your assertion is somewhat assumptive.
is that like.................. an 'increase' ?
When I left my employer, a medium sized rolex AD, they had 50 pepsis, 250 steel daytonas, 300 steel subs (black n green mixed) and a bunch of skydwellers etc in the cupboard.... They use it as leverage to make people buy other crap like Cartier or Tag or in-house jewelry that noone really wants, and suddenly a steel rolex appears...
These things are not rare nor special. We're seeing the beginnings of it now, with discounted YMs and SDDSs etc. The only watch that may be worth a small premium is the Daytona, for a while.
Don't believe the hype. Its dying. And rolex are building a new factory too...
Did you actually see this enormous stock pile?
Precisely
Ok, I’ll bite.
Who exactly was your “employer” in this case (the AD) please? Would be good to back up your post with proof/facts if you don’t mind please. Thank you.
I love a fairy story.
Personally I don’t see this sudden increase in supply and softening of prices. Alternatively I must be looking in all the wrong places.
The two AD’s I look to are still consistently saying “exhibition only” on Steel Subs, no chance on any Steel GMTs and wait lists on pretty much everything.
So I’m keen to see where these Grey dealers are with week old Sports models below list prices
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Ping me your dealers number please.
That's some good shit he's got you.
The loosening of supply is to be welcomed. That said, the shenanigans of my local AD have put me off being a customer of theirs in the future.
I won't say they've put me of buying a Rolex, isn't that something we all want to do at least once 😉
I had a call from said local AD last year to "discuss my watch collection" and it was basically an interview to see if I was suitable to be their customer.
Fine, management reserves the right of admission and all that jazz but, I'm fúcked if I'm justifying my watch history or my collecting philosophy for the privilege of handing over €10k to a wet behind the ears sales girl fresh of a training day.
Hook me up with that AD please if they’ve got hundreds lying around… as I’d love a GMT Batgirl at retail… one of my dream watches.
I still think the demand for these pieces far outstrips supply, and even with the increased supply from new factories I can’t see them being abundant like Omegas.
Glad I’m not the only one who has had a painful 4000 past LOL.
Least you can wear the Black Bay in the current environment. Not sure I’d wear the 14060M let alone a 4000 in central London. Hopefully where you are is safer.
My personal take is that the resellers who have lots of unsold, and cash intensive inventory are artificially keeping the prices higher than the market will dictate.
In the last 3/4 years I have had a number of acquaintances who were suddenly out of the blue calling me up for advice on which watch to buy as they had developed a sudden appreciation for the art of watchmaking and wanted to buy as many as they could as quickly as they could.
Obviously they are not interested in watches one bit any longer, and I think the next 24 months will see a severe correction in the market.
Hilarious!
Luckily, I’ve never had this with a purchase, Rolex or otherwise. Would certainly decline that offer :/
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