Reply With QuoteGenerally agree with the 20% haircut vs. Chrono24, even 25%-30% if you are looking for a direct sale to a dealer.
I know we are in the midst of quite a soft market.
That prices across the board have taken a tumble and that the reality of any "valuation" crumbles when it meets the market.
I usually use watch-recon, watch-charts and Chrono24 and a trawl through sites such as this to get a handle on ballpark figures. My rule of thumb for Chrono24 prices is that real world is 20% less.
I've been spitballing selling 1 or 2 pieces recently and came across the Chrono24 appraisal tool https://www.chrono24.com/info/valuation.htm
What kind of faith can one have in the price estimates it delivers?
Generally agree with the 20% haircut vs. Chrono24, even 25%-30% if you are looking for a direct sale to a dealer.
Chrono24 are out by a long way
You'd be better off with completed listings on ebay
This. The old adage of something is worth what someone will pay for it. What you see on eBay is what people have actually paid.Originally Posted by JPCain86
I know a lot of people avoid eBay all together but most of my buying and selling is done on there and generally, I find it pretty good.
Oh I agree, as mentioned I usually give anything outside the Trinity a minimum 20% cut.
Fair point and I should have included it. I've not checked eBay directly in ages, using one the watch scrapers like watch recon or watch patrol as they scrape asking prices from forums . I must start adding eBay to my price/sanity checks again.
Take 20% off C24 valuation and that where it’ll sell if its a desirable, you might need a little more for the fashionista explosion pieces that gained popularity when everyone thought they would make them a fortune.
The true classics and desirables, as in the watches that were always ‘good to have’ are slightly stronger but still need 15% backing off them
RIAC
As well as eBay, it’s worth looking at what watches are going for at straight watch auction sites. That’ll show you what people are actually paying for certain models in the real world. Depending on the auction, you can also work out whether the seller is a dealer or a private individual and of course whether the watch is unworn or used, year of manufacture, full set or not etc. It can give you a really good understanding of real world sales value, direction of value over a period of time and other valuable info. Watchcollecting.com is a good one, no seller’s fees (and no affiliation with me). To answer the OP’s main question, Chrono24 is out by at least 20 - 30%, sometimes more and has been for a long time, even before the madness of early 2022.
By far, the eBay sold prices are the best real world indicator but for some more obscure pieces there is often insufficient data to be had.
I have previously bought two watches from Chronos24 and both were offers below the asking price, based on eBay sold data.
It is indeed a soft market currently which is in a buyers favour, especially when there are a lot of a particular model for sale. There are currently 976 UK-based Rolex Submariners for you to choose from.
The sellers are subject to a 6.5% sales fee.
The sales fee on Chrono is one of the reasons I'll contact an established dealer directly if they have something I like listed.
That said, if it's a private sale there? I'll do any negotiation and buying within their ecosystem. That way I at least have their escrow protection.
Thanks for the watchcollecting.com tip, one I'd not seen before.
I'm glad to see that my own price correction for Chrono24 is at least in the ballpark and shared by many.
On the Classics & Desirables, fully agree. I was lucky enough to pick up what was a grail for me during COVID, a blue VC 42040. Unfortunately the 36mm was just too small for me to live with. I ended up selling it via a dealer for more than double what I paid within 3 months of buying it. Crazy! At one point it was for sale at €10k over what I'd sold for, again within weeks of that sale.
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