2024 watch predictions
Someone has to start this?
what are your predictions for the watch world next year?
what are your predictions for your watch world next year?
My predictions:
1. Prices will increase by 8% perhaps twice in the year. Watch sizes will continue to decrease down to average 36mm
2. Maybe I will sell one watch and buy one. Can’t be specific, but a Zenith is missing from my collection.
“ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG
1. I can see increases occurring via AD’s for sure but at the same time I expect used/grey market prices to decline a further. Good to see the market returning to “normality”.
2. I need to ensure that I buy less than I sell/move on!
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Prises rise, 40mm will continue to be the average in general. 36mm is way too small, that will never be the average in a million years.
Price rises are less aggressive as brands wait for inflation to catch up with their current overpricing. Lots of new dial colours / designs and handsets instead of genuinely new models, as they try to shift their existing mountain of cases and movements by giving them a facelift. More watches available at list price after a shorter wait. See the ‘luxury overproduction’ thread.
GS re-release the Self-Dater as a frustratingly expensive but beautiful hand wound model to celebrate the model’s 60th anniversary. Perhaps they release an integrated bracelet model but it’s slightly too large.
VC release a mid-sized Overseas to replace the 37mm model.
Rolex very quietly update their 32xx movements.
Seiko are rereleasing the Pogue next year. That seems a done deal. Some noise that the Spork may also be rereleased.
Thinking back a year nothing I predicted remotely came to be, so my only prediction is that manufacturers will continue to make watches they want rather than we want.
Price of most Rolex’s bar ss Subs/Daytonas will continue to reduce on the grey market and more availability from main dealers. Possibly.
Few of brands (such as tudor) will release some very nice watches but always miss out 1 bit that everyone wants
Rolex will re release the black GMT with this will thinking be a slight change somewhere movement/case size etc so will be all new references for GMTs
Over retail pricing culture continues to calm down and the knock on effect is brands like IWC, Omega and GS really begin to struggle with their pricing once salespeople can no longer package deal like they used to.
0% APR deals will be commonplace.
One or two micro brands will go to the wall.
Fully agree with strell — Tudor will release some incredible watches with one or two things missing to stop them from being perfect. No idea why they always do this, must be to protect big brother.
Small chance of an updated Rolex calibre
Tudor Pelagos LHD will be replaced by a new 39mm LHD model, thus immediately turning it into a limited version (due to the fact that it's numbered).
GS will release their first 36.5mm 44GS bracelet 9S64 watch with open case back and will up the price.
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As the tide continues to go out, some mid-market Swiss and German brands will be found not to be wearing any trunks. I mean those who have aggressively increased pricing in the wake of Rolex. Would not surprise me to see a lot of stupidly priced watches becoming available at big discounts, or brands destroying unsold stock, cancelling those models and returning to more sustainable pricing.
My predictions are reliably 100% wrong, though.
e.g. I said Chelsea and Man U would be good this season.
Deleted.
Last edited by Dave+63; 26th December 2023 at 14:29.
Poor taste and not something to get in on an open forum.
Apologies I didn’t think anyone would see it in that way.Originally Posted by Alansmithee
Now deleted.
Last edited by Dave+63; 26th December 2023 at 14:34.
Don't agree 36mm is "way" too small.
All about what we've become used to with stupidly ugly sized watches.
36 to 40 is perfect......imo.
Last edited by P9CLY; 26th December 2023 at 14:32.
Personally I agree with this and I kind of hope it happens too. Many brands are due to be cut back down to size as people turn their noses up at the higher prices.
I'm sure there will be some casualties but I think there is certainly still a market for sensibly priced stuff.
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I see a further reduction in used prices across the board by another 10-15% and closer to 20% on the overhyped and precious metals.
Also a 20% growth in actual sales of sub Ł5k watch market which naturally excludes the big 4.
A return to availability of Rolex Steel Sports less Daytona, Sky, GMT.
The GMT market will be interesting as with black/red due and the amount of colour options its almost its own brand and waters down a little but good fun for collecting having a fullset (not that many will ever afford that)
NB. Used prices / valuations that are shown on C24 are already 20% inflated from where stuff actually sells at present so a bit more yet.
RIAC
Fortis comes to mind.
I predict:
1. Tudor ranger in a reduced size, probably 37mm based on the bb54 case. However, it will have a green dial and be made of bronze, or something stupid like that.
2. White dial speedy pro comes out(as hinted elsewhere), sapphire only. Ł8.5k
3. New Milgaus, after a year off the market, no iron cage and a bit slimmer but some new technology inside which isn’t used in the other rolex calibres
4. As my birthday approaches, having told myself I don’t need any more watches, I finally break and pay over the odds for a carrera telemeter calibre 18.
Everest II with a fixed GMT bezel and crown guards, all at 36mm
Agreed here. Not sure how the 44mm+ watch size was a trend for a couple years.
Been wearing Panerai for 21 years now and they have only adapted to cater for a larger market. Size isn’t a trend it’s a relative to wrist desired apperance.
RIAC
Like others I reckon the after effects of 2020 on the used market will continue to decline. There will be one or two hype watches that nobody can get their hands on or that sell for colossally overinflated prices on the secondary market but those will be artificial events caused by watch blogs and social media rather than actual demand. Swatch group will try and bottle lightning with a Swatch collaboration again and it will flop again.
For me personally I suspect that I’ll wind up selling a few from the collection as the FXD takes over most of the wrist time.
Which one has flopped preciously?
RIAC
Secondhand Rolex Professional models mostly dropping further in price, especially around February when all hope of Christmas cash is properly gone.
A number of watch dealers folding, especially "COVID gravy train pop-up" ones, some in messy fashion.
A continuing stream of people "wanting to crystallise my investment" in the form of a predictable "collection" usually including a 126711CHNR Turd-Master, a stickered D-Blue and a white dial Sky-Dweller, asking dealers for offers and expressing disgust when not offered as much as the dearest seller on Chrono24 (who still seems to think it is February 2022) is asking.
The spectre of Jamie Thorpe to haunt certain parts of the country.
There will be several fewer Rolex main agents.
There will be increasing distress (with conversely slow sales) at a certain brand's main agents who agreed to the folly of a certified secondhand scheme and have a fortune tied up in over-priced stock.
"Bye, bye, bye, De Leyser"
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 28th December 2023 at 13:51.
Financially they havent
Aesthetically and devaluing a brand (s) the have.
Just my opinion of course.
I always enjoy your posts.
What is your knowledge of Rolex dealers in Spain?
When I was there last year many had been cut loose, some who had been with Rolex for many decades.
They where nice people who where very upset.
I always visit this shop when I am in Tarragona,they have a lovely Rolex clock on a lamp post outside,they had to get permission from the council to put it up.
https://www.rabat.net/en/rabat-zaida...tore-tarragona
Tut Tut. Schadenfreude at this time of year !
Tudor will bash out another 50 models you need a microscope to tell the difference between.
Regarding the Insta-pop-up-tattoos-and-AMG-steering-wheel-mobile-phone-number-and-cash-in-a-car-park-chancers ( Ł55k cash for the Royal Oak, bro' ) ....guilty and not embarrassed by my disdain.
Regarding the main agents, I actually have great sympathy and think many former / existing independents to have been treated dreadfully.
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 28th December 2023 at 14:28.
Thankyou :-)
No specific knowledge of Spanish dealers, although what you describe sounds very familiar to the experience of some in the UK
Less retailers less admin same volume
RIAC
FTFY :-)
Sorry didnt finish school
RIAC
Breitling do something for their 140th anniversary that involves the re-release of an old Navi. Or possibly a new Montbrillant
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We will find out what happened to "James and Tom" from Hadleigh & Royal.
There literally are 57 varieties of Black Bay on their web site:
https://www.tudorwatch.com/en/watch-...ay-31-36-39-41
HA wonderful. iswydt.
My predictable predictions are
Seiko will issue hundreds of new models, with bizarre pricing comparisons, and none of them will perfectly hit the sweet spot.
Tudor will continue to avoid releasing a full-on Submariner re-issue, and people will start getting even more bored of their near misses.
Some relatively large mid-level brands will really struggle, as falling used prices of higher brands start to collide with their own rising new prices.
Used prices of most brands will continue to fall, relatively slowly. I predict no cliff edges.
Less predictably, in 2024 I really hope to hunt down the one Lemania-powered model that I have been searching for, for ages
I also hope to complete some really enjoyable refurbs and customisations
CWC will issue a watch that has ties back to Rourkes drift that only veterans can have inscribed on the back.
They will sell a new line of Falkland war era watch straps made from
1,Sodden,smelly 58 webbing.
2,A lightweight version made from the tie straps of issued puttees.
3,A waterproof version made from the base of 58 doss bags.
A pelagos gmt.
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Green pelagos chrono
Jura still won't have sold this at 31.12.24:
https://www.jurawatches.co.uk/collec...ty-black-betty
If they move the decimal point two places to the left I might buy it just to make a YouTube video where I smash it with a lump hammer.
The write up sounds good in a pretentious way.
But when you look at it yuk.
ArtyA Watch Son of Sound Guitar Black Betty Black Betty. Quality and authenticity before quantity. The artya trademark is synonymous with the highest quality, innovation, creativity and avant garde concepts. All artya watches are passionately created exclusively by the owner, artist and skilled master watchmakers whom are carefully selecting the best available materials and the highest levels in savoir faire.
I had heard that after some initial interest the Blancpain Swatches did not go on to sell anything like the Moonswatch. Maybe "flop" is a strong word for it, but it sounds like it wasn't a success on the same level.
36 was large until the seventies (tool) and noughties (dress); 40mm is too large to appear proportionate, modest or elegant in most general settings - the SUV of wristwear.
Fantastic :)
"a 126711CHNR Turd-Master, a stickered D-Blue and a white dial Sky-Dweller,"
There goes another coffee and keyboard!
Might get to pick up some of those safe queens soon then, if the panic starts! Might separate the watch fans from the investment hoarders. (Unworn, never bonded so been in the safe for 3 years)
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
People can wear what they like but I’m pretty sure current watches are historically large/oversized so a trend back to smaller wouldn’t be that surprising.
I don't think that there will be a 'norm' for watch sizes, the world at large likes to try and accommodate every taste these days.
that said, we are in a world now where costs have risen for everything and most people will have noticed that with anything they buy where the price has stayed the same, the item has become smaller. Food being a prime example. I wonder if watch manufacturers, especially the larger ones, can tap into that psychologically, make watches smaller, save on material costs yet keep the retail prices the same or even increase them and most customers are relatively happy. I've also noticed that the male trend towards large muscle bound celebrities who would require a large watch has diminished somewhat in favour of very slight, thin celebrities (Timothee Chalet for instance) who might wear a smaller watch. Not a given, just a thought.
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