Reply With Quote?????Originally Posted by JPCain86
Few weeks ago when I was selling mine, dealers including WF ranged from 8 - 8.5
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And now just received an email from Fraser Hart offering a free £599 Wolf Watch winder alongside 48 months interest free credit to tempt the failing buyer market.
If we assume say a £5,300 Omega Seamaster 300 and the opportunity cost of say 5% interest that's got to be worth a total of £1,500 of 'value' being offered.
TBH I'd rather they just reduced the price back a slightly more sensible £4,000!
A good reason not to watch Youtube.
I think that Isla Bikes is simply a case of a smallish company not wanting to trade any more, happens all the time. The founder stepped back a couple of years ago and they entered the market at a time when there was almost no competition. Now there's quite a lot.
the Wiggle/Chain Reaction situation is more complex but ask yourself why such a successful company would need a very large loan to be able to continue trading. The loan is pulled and the parent company enters administration. I would suggest that it's very little to do with the bike industry itself.
I like Isla Bikes and it's shame that they're closing but Wiggle/CRC undercut local bike shops by a significant margin at every opportunity and I'd like to see more local bike shops than one website. It's amazing how many people buy from Wiggle/CRC and then expect someone else to install the part for them.
Which they will be charged for?
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
I have no car, no mortgage and four more bedrooms than I need.
Chaps - When the credit card bills come in after Xmas - I'm interested in a Tudor North Flag at rock bottom prices.
Undoubtedly but you can't run a bike shop just fitting but not selling bikes/parts
yes it is Chris but in the context of the quoted 911" live stock per centre" my point is wholly correct.
Interested to your see factual source of your market view here JPCain86. Thanks.
I remember the crash in 2007-2008 and there was 2 5980’s in the window at Berry’s available at list . I think it was £26000
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A certain large Rolex AD has now unofficially opened all lists. You can walk in and go down for a Daytona. You’ll never get one, so it’s pointless, but it’s a curious change.
Do you have a factual source showing that the average number of new 911s in dealerships precovid was double digits?
I am sure this means nothing but..my brother-in-law never spent a penny in Goldsmiths got this after four months. The dealer said the two people ahead of him declined on basis they couldn't afford it.
(That is my wrist if you think the fit is wrong).
At a risk of starting with Swiss Watch arrogance via Taycan depreciation I have to agree with Chris. The cycle industry is on its knees. Evidence of the this , the collapse of Wiggle / CRC , the massive discounting of new 2023 bikes , groupset deals etc. The boom bust of groupset brands was predicted as long ago as July 21 when top tier manufacturers bouyed up by the huge covid demand and low stocks literally changed gear. Unsold inventory is a problem for any business , but in a business where non cyclists bought bikes eg lockdown, then shift fwd to today the gap between historical demand and current demand is huge.
Lastly just this week articles are appearing in cycling publications challenging the continued notion that “ high end “ cycles £7-10k prices are sustainable. Its going to be a bumpy ride, being in the business I hope you weather it well from a personal perspective. For me with seven cycles in my collection I find it a sad position.
Depreciation of a vehicle is a simple matter in the majority of cases. Car costs £x new, car is worth virtually £0 pounds after 12-15 years. The drop in value isn`t linear, so the cost of owning it for a given length of time depends on which part of the age vs value curve you're at.......simples! Only exception is for cars that acquire classic status and start to become desirable again, but that usually takes a long time and is unpredictable to say the least.
Another fundamental point which is incredibly simple but often overlooked: only one person is paying for the depreciation at any given time, that's the vehicle's owner or whoever is leasing it.
A fundamentally incorrect point, and a partially incorrect one.
It’s far from simple to calculate future pricing in relation to any new car, regardless if they reach classic status or not. Plenty of people and brands try to calculate likely/probable GFV on its cars - they get it right about the same odds as playing roulette. The only thing the have in their favour is getting on the prices going down substantially and by higher percentages the older they get. You may as well try and do the same with watches, or better still stocks and shares.
With leasing, a lot of the time and more so in previous years, the price of a 2 to 3 year lease didn’t come close to the same cost as the actual depreciation, and I think we are going to see the same with the cheaper leases available on the VW minivan and Merc electrics.
It's just a matter of time...
I couldn't disagree more. Firstly, "high end" cycles aren't £7-10k, they're £15k+. Most full suspension E-mtb's are £5k+ and easily heading into £7-10k territory. If you have a look on Sigma Sports website for example and filter the search as high to low pricing, I think the last time I looked there were 30+ bikes over £10k.
Wiggle/CRC haven't collapsed, let's get that cleared up. It makes it sound as though their trade had stopped. Their parent company has simply failed to shore up the finances due to a loan being pulled. The vast majority of companies at that scale have massive loans and as we saw during the financial crisis, it loans are pulled, even a viable business can suffer. If all the major distributors were going under then I could agree that the cycle industry is on its knees but they're not. Our local bike shop has had its busiest ever year this year.
The cycle industry was inevitably going to slow down as a whole after the pandemic. All those consumers who didn't really want a bike but bought one as it was all you could do aren't going to buy another. However, all the consumers who were already part of the cycle industry won't suddenly stand still. Even with the so called cost of living crisis, the 'haves' are still the 'haves', it's the 'have nots' that tend to suffer.
Can't agree. My car is 16 years old and the model is going up in value it seems, current second hand prices around the £4k-£6 area for a car worth under £30k when new. Oddly the price did drop to around £2.5k a few years ago but then started going up again.
To be fair to Paul, he’s right in general with, in my opinion, a couple of exceptions.
1) most every day cars are worth peanuts after about 20-25 years rather than 12-15 years. Covid and the chip shortage has blurred the situation lately though but it’s only a blip.
Get much beyond the 25 years though and even the humblest of cars (anyone remember the Alleggro?) will start to appreciate in value due to rarity and inflation.
2) in the case of leading, it’s the lease companies who take the depreciation gamble, the lessee only pays a fixed sum however the car performs depreciation wise. It’s up to the lease companies to try to remain on the right side of the depreciation curve.
Last edited by Dave+63; 18th December 2023 at 10:13.
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