Few here will be surprised to hear that ever rising prices have alienated buyers, and that raising production at the same time has lead to a glut of unsellable luxury trinkets. The real surprise is hearing Jean-Claude Biver hitting the nail on the head with a mea culpa for the Swiss. But perhaps consumers and brands alike have been complicit in chasing a seductive dreamworld of luxury living and fantasy profit margins. What will happen to the mountain of over-priced, and not always entirely tasteful luxury goods? The January sales should be interesting, though some products may suddenly feel very 2023.
https://timeandtidewatches.com/pande...ended-reading/
https://fortune.com/europe/2023/12/0...demars-pigyet/
Tbh I have been wondering how small cities are supporting brand specific shops.
In my midlands city we have boutiques for Rolex, Omega, Breitling and Tag Heuer. Seems impossible to me that these can all be supported enough to remain open.
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Throw luxury cars on that too
Lots of Porsches now available-Taycans you can explain away but 911s too
Absolutely ridiculous price hikes in the last few years will come back to bite.
I remember the bloodbath in 2008 with luxury used cars.
I'm not sure that bubble has burst just yet. Eight used 911's in my local dealer, only one sub £100k and only two new.Originally Posted by Hood
376 brand new 911s at dealers in UK at the moment.
With just under 52,000 currently used on UK roads, it's not like the 376 will reduce the desirability. On the plus side, at least anyone who has the money can buy one - unlike some watches.
The pricing of some (all) mainstream high-street watch brands has become obscene. Maybe I am getting old but only 5 years ago I am sure Omega Seamaster were selling for 3K, a Rolex DateJust M12634-0017 (Fluted bezel, president bracelet, 36mm - £6,300 in 2019, now?? They have just got greedy.
Also, I looked at some watches in Gatwick N (or was it Heathrow S - a bit of a blur) but nothing jumped out and staff were lack-lustre with their attention. Even a couple of years ago they would have greeted you and tried to get your attention.
Soon I will do my annual SOTC - not much has changed this year. Some brands have put out some interesting watches but the whole buying experience is rather jaded for me now. Bah Humbug.
“ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG
The Rolex is only£8650. The Seamaster however is now £5600!
The Rolex is likely a £7500 watch; whereas the Seamaster is a £3k-£3.5k used watch imho.
There still appears to be some value in certain brands, and there are lots of people not feeling the squeeze just yet. I’ve been reading about doom and glum for too many years now, but the recent power price and food price increases affect us all.
I don’t think that many people that buy £800+ jumpers care too much about rising fuel and food costs though.
It's just a matter of time...
That 911 bubble was always going to burst. Very similar to the rolex bubble to be fair.
Wonder how long for the GT cars to get back to anywhere near available to order?
Typically what happens when luxury goods companies have a glut of supply is they end up destroying what they can't sell. Slim to no chance the Swiss will destroy their "brand value" by offering discounts in January sales etc etc
Modern day luxury items in general, are to aspire the gullible.
6 cars per Centre (average) is not a lot at all. Pre Covid that number would be double digit…and we are on the cusp of 992.2 as well.
The car market is struggling big time across the piste.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
If they can’t sell them they will just stockpile and cut production. There won’t be any price cutting.
Already is discounting.
Just not enough to shift stuff.
Interest rates have killed the pcp purchases.
Guy on pistonheads got 25K off a Taycan couple of days back.
I meant watches not Porsches …
it's not just luxury goods and cars either. The bicycle industry ramped up massively to meet the demand through the pandemic and with misplaced optimism thought stratospheric sales would continue forever. They haven't and now manufacturers have warehouses full of bikes and parts and I'm told it's much the same in the alcohol industry too.
Perhaps the over supply of many goods, and subsequent price slashing will reduce inflation, which of course the government will take all the credit.
I can’t believe the change in just 4 months. There were about 6 new 911s across the whole dealership network. Either a lot of cancelled orders or they have suddenly found a way of upping RHD production. And there are some at 10k off list and that is before you go in and negotiate.
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I'm not sure where you heard this but it's certainly not my experience and I work in the industry. The price of mid to high end bikes has gone through the roof primarily due to demand outstripping supply through the pandemic. Manufacturers weren't able to ramp up production as a lot of parts are manufactured in the Far East, specifically China and Japan who were both hit really hard during the pandemic. The price of bikes is staying high but demand has slowed down. However, certain brands are still very hard to get hold of. I very much doubt that the price of new bikes will reduce significantly any time soon.
I wouldn't be tempted to believe anything mentioned on Pistonheads however I agree that the depreciation on Taycans is massive. It has to be due to the fact they're electric. Whether the technology is changing rapidly and customers don't want used Taycans or whether it's related to the tax advantages that companies get for buying brand new electric vehicles - which reputedly will soon be coming to an end, I don't know. They're a phenomenal car with 200+ mile range so there doesn't seem to be a downside to buying one yet it seems that customers can se a downside.
It’s definitely not just the luxury market, not sure how many work or have involvement with manufacturing ‘market’ but a hell of a lot happened in it lead from covid.
I work in it but there is a hell of a lot of overstock in all markets, hence now there seems to be ‘sales’ every other week, also a lot of major retailers especially online ones are starting their ‘jan’ sales very very soon and running for a long time also, to try and get the stock down ready for the next seasons etc
2024 will be interesting
Is their tendency towards colossal depreciation not a downside then...? If interest rates have done for much of the pcp bizzo...who in their right mind would chose to spend their own money on such a rapidly depreciating asset...less´n they get a helluva ticket price discount giving themselves some insurance against deflation-depreciation.
Last edited by Passenger; 13th December 2023 at 09:44.
Economy contracted .3 per cent in October and managed zero growth in the previous quarter...next year could be flat...
Just a few downsides (common to most EV's)
- Massive depreciation
- Horrendous insurance & repair costs
- The horrific environmental impact of making them
- The extra weight compared with an ICE car which leads to higher particulate emissions from tyres & brakes
- All that's before the cost & inconvenience of having to use the public charging network if on a long journey
Back to the OP. Economic cycles are hardly new. Most luxury manufacturers will have a few tough years but will survive.
Andy
Wanted - Damasko DC57
Spot on, Expensive car on drive, Big watch on wrist, Mortgaged to death property with 3 more bedrooms than needed and no mirrors in the house. That false blanket of warmth that people buy and then look down on others with their perceived sense of achievement in lieu of achieving nothing.
RIAC
Give it 2-5 months.
B
Amen...just don´t get the no mirrors reference, wouldn´t narcissism- superficial self regard, rather naturally go along with the purchased sense of luxe life ´style´, achievement, class, cool-hip etc.
Last edited by Passenger; 13th December 2023 at 10:56.
Reflects my thinking at present.
Been debating selling something to get a used porsche or WG DD to finally scratch an itch but going to see what things are like feb/march and if they get worse. My usual luck is buy high, sell low, so I’d like to develop some willpower and break that cycle if I can.
Starting to see a lot more watches going under RRP now. I think Subs will be under RRP next year.
Need to explain the no mirrors Kerry
They cant see who they actually are!
RIAC
With you on that. The current WG with green dial is beautiful but there is an onyx dial on the YG which I’m hoping makes its way to the WG.
I also now think the less watches you have there more often you get to enjoy them. There days of having ten Rolex and wanting to hoard more are firmly behind me.
Friend of mine is a car dealer who has made a good living out of selling cars to people who he describes exactly as you have done so above ... I spoke to him yesterday and he says that market is now zero and the types of car he used to sell to them are dropping like a stone on the trade exchanges ...
I have noticed a lot less talk about Rolex purchases from speculators on here as now they don't seem to be the instant profit they once were.
Good thing too.
Cheers,
Neil.
Ah now I getcha...though aren't this group also incessantly taking pics of themselves, their lunch, their new stuff etc for the socials...ah but filters!
No, depreciation is a symptom, not a cause. Depreciation is simply due to a lack of desirability which was my point - if what a car offers is all positive then why would there be a lack of demand in a pre-owned version? With the Taycan my guess would be that most are bought by businesses who have significant tax incentives but there is a little to no demand in the retail sector - most likely due to the very high cost of the car and potential running costs vs other EV's. It's a car that outperforms it's fossil fuel powered siblings in every aspect yet still seems to be less desirable. A Tag Connect in a Rolex dominated world.
As mentioned in my last post, depreciation is a symptom rather than cause. So we'll exclude that
Insurance and repair costs - no more for a Taycan than an equivalent petrol powered Porsche
Environmental impact - does anyone really know what it is?
Extra weight - tyres are more of a problem but who really knows or cares about the tyres particulate emissions. Brakes - learn how to drive properly. As Jeremy Clarkson once said, brakes should be banned on motorways.
Length of journey - the vast majority of people travel less distance per journey than the distance their car will travel with a full battery. My petrol car will actually travel less distance on a full tank than most EV's.
Nothing that you've mentioned would convince me that an EV is functionally any worse than an equivalent ICE car.
Interesting.............. I hadn't heard of that. Any examples?
Hard to imagine luxury watches and Porsches going in the crusher......?
Fascinating. And obscene. Thanks.
Quote_
"In May 2018, Richemont, the owner of the jewelry and watch brands Cartier, Piaget, and Baume & Mercier, admitted that in an effort to keep its products out of the hands of unauthorized sellers, it had destroyed about $563 million worth of watches over the past two years."
Sorry yeah on that scale, I meant form stock point of view, think will be sales pretty much all year round to try and dwindle stock holdings and forecasts
It's been like this for a long time....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyiZm-2THoI
Best Regards - Peter
I'd hate to be with you when you're on your own.
This isn't true at true at all. Every Rolex bar the Daytona was available from an AD at list not that long ago.
With Sub prices sitting around £1500 over list. There will be a decision where scalpers say is it worth the risk to buy a Sub to make a few hundred pound.
I'd be interested to know what dealers are paying for the likes of a 124060 right now. Maybe a tad over list but won't be much and doubt it will be for long.
Eh?
Where did I say they were not available at list?
It's been the general theme on several YouTube channels recently.
Why The Bike Industry Is Failing
Is The Bike Industry F*cked?! | GMBN Tech Show 303
The Bike Industry Crisis
However it's good news if that's not the case, I'm a fan of Isla Bikes and Wiggle/Chain Reaction so hope they continue trading.
Outperforms on everything...except range I'm guessing.
Well you said people were delusional to expect to see a sub under RRP when the vast majority of there existence they have sold available at RRP fro ADs.
The demand for subs (and most steel Rolex) has dropped recently and the supply is ramping up, so I would expect availability of Rolex sports models to increase.
In fact the only people I think who don't think this is the case are the YouTube dealers who every month say we have hit the bottom.
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