I know next to nothing about Rolex sports watches but I have noticed that in todays climate they are not selling as quick as they were and prices are being reduced to get them sold, could we see the prices they sell for being less than the current list ?
Are some collectors "offloading" ?
Last edited by TheTigerUK; 12th July 2023 at 13:06.
Soon the only way to sell them will be for less than retail, or at least - less than they cost at the peak of the bubble.
Naturally, no-one who bought one as an 'investment' is going to agree.
It's going to take Rolex artificially limiting new availability further than they already do to get the used market back-up to its insane peaks.
That could be the case earl, but if owners don't need to sell the market likely won't be flooded and the price difference won't be huge. I guess if lots of 'investors' have mortgage deals coming to an end soon the difference could be much larger!
Hopefully one trivial benefit of the impending economic meltdown is an end to the grey market.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66172954
But if demand dries up for new watches and they become available again to regular customers or even a slight discount to move them that will have an effect on the value of their "investments" even if they don't crystalise their losses by actually selling.Originally Posted by LondonNeil
That would be the end of my job then, so thanks and best wishes to you and yours.
The grey market is always the devil, until it comes to getting discounts on brands that aren't Rolex et al, then the tune tends to change significantly.
I think some of the less popular sports could potentially go for below RRP pre owned in the UK, but probably not the "hot" stuff.
Shockingly, people may have to start wearing their watches to enjoy and to tell the time!
On a slightly more serious note, presumably Rolex can just switch supplies to different countries if the UK market really starts to struggle.
Maybe UK supplies are already heavily restricted. There's a reddit Rolex site where people give details of watches they've bought from ADs. While there may be some BS stories, buyers in the US seem to get hold of pretty well any Rolex model in reasonable timeframes.
Some will, some won’t. The SD43 is now selling used for virtually list price and I don’t think it will be long before it drops under. I’ve seen TT versions of several models listed below list by dealers. I think Explorers, Air Kings and Datejust models will drop as will the standard Sub models. The special Subs (think Hult, Kermit, Cermit etc) will hold their prices.
The GMT and Daytona watches aren’t going anywhere, they will continue to sell with high premiums for a long time yet.
Once the greys refuse to pay list for a new model being immediately flipped, the money men will move on and those watches should start to become available again.
£7k for an Explorer II in the Sales Corner, with a new RRP of £8100 suggests we're already there.
By the time you service that 9 year old watch it'll only be about £400 cheaper than a new one with a 5+5 year warranty.
Depends on whether 'investors' hold their nerve or not, The prices have only risen so sharply due to exceptional demand. I don't really see that changing for the Rolex market. The only way prices will drop significantly is if those people who have bought a watch simply to make money think that they've reached their peak and once a 'few' people start to sell, the rest will follow. Stocks and shares but with a mechanical movement attached.
I think that the prices will drop a little, possibly driven by dealers trying to sell stock before prices tumble but I don't see them dropping significantly.
I certainly hope so. As yet my AD has not given me any good news.
It is quite possible, particularly the less sought after models.
It is a sign of changing times.
Ming preorders used to fill up in less than 5 min. Their latest offering is still available after 24 hours. Speculators are on the sidelines at the moment.
At the moment I think greys with heaps of stock are just trying to ride out the current downward trend as they will have likely bought considerably over list. Obviously they are reluctant to sell at a loss. The question is how long can they wait?
Over the last year Rolex watches on this form have been reduced and reduced and still hang around. I saw on YouTube someone was offered only £500 above list for a no date sub. We are seeing watches offered at or under list too.
As above, the cost of living crisis is far from over so demand will remain low for the foreseeable future for all luxury goods.
Let’s hope we get to a point where all but the ‘special’ watches are easily available.
We’ll see what happens but in the last 12 months Rolex have had 2 hefty rises in the Uk, so anyone who purchased 10 months ago or longer can still sell for below current list and break even, or maybe even profit…
FTFY!
I think it's inevitable that prices will continue to fall, second hand watches selling for above list is crazy and it couldn't go on forever. One or two of the so-called 'hot' models will still attract a premium but I can see the situation going back to where it was 10 years ago, which was far healthier for most.
I think the older second-hand stuff will drop in price too, insane prices have being asked for 20 year old Datejusts etc, which isn`t good for anyone.
In Singapore unworn Seadwellers are less than list from the multitude of grey dealers … check out Carousel ..
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I was keen on a green dial date-just but there is no way I’m paying a premium for that anymore when my air king is selling at list now.
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Surely we're way beyond that point already?
As for selling under retail, Rolex knows how to protect their brand so I suspect if it does dip down it'll be moderated through constrained supply.
Buy to wear what you like, cannot lose
Has always been the case, even for people who pay a heavy premium. If you never sell, you haven’t lost a penny.
[QUOTE=ac11111;6242721]Buy to wear what you like, cannot lose
and that actually looks the dogs danglies :)
[QUOTE=TheTigerUK;6242727]Thank you, I was actually on list for the rootbeer but this one came through instead to my surprise.
that's the way that I've always viewed watch purchases. You just have to avoid looking at the same watch in the sales or on pre-owned websites as it can sometimes be demoralising.
Only those who are desperate to sell for whatever reason fall into the ever reducing price bear pit.
Just a matter of which bear waits long enough.......and then pounce.
Best place to be is sell only for a change of watch and not the cash.
Anyone who bought pre covid! Will be fine,anyone buying off those forever reducing will also be fine.
Stop press......DONT REDUCE THE PRICE OF YOUR ROLEX WATCH.
Last edited by P9CLY; 12th July 2023 at 22:31.
The rest of the G7 didn’t Brexit themselves so they are not in such a mess so the UK market will become a backwater. Rolex will just flog their stock elsewhere.
You are right Paul, there does seem to be a race to the bottom at the moment. Unfortunately watches are being lost to the forum as sellers have little choice put to pass them on to the trade, which in some cases are for better money than they were listed on SC, but if people here aren’t interested then as they say… you can lead a horse to water.
I still believe there is a higher interest in getting the call and buying brand new than considering a preowned watch. If that is where we are at, then so be it, but it sort of kills SC.
Britt Pearce did a video on this topic the other day, showing a few models under or on the cusp of retail including the explorer.
I think if you have a watch then it depends when you bought it (assuming for RRP). I bought my first sub in 2019 for 5750 so even if prices fell under current RRP it would be over the old price. Short term flipping will be the practice which gets affected.
I buy to wear though and have no intention of selling it so it's a moot point 😊
Well I think that's a great point. I don't think there will be a linear slide in prices. At some point there will be a step-change when SH prices go below RRP.
Those that buy for investment only enjoy the idea that they are going to increase in value...!
Is it me or has there been an adjustment to non-modern Rolex sports watches too? I've seen 4 and 5-digit references on SC sitting there for lower prices than I remember in recent memory. Rolex-as-investment seems to be having a wobble as a concept. There have been a few times I've thought about letting my 5513 go to pick up a modern 124060 and be done with it (now down to 2 decent watches with this accompanied by my FXD), but haven't partially as the relative values have been all over the place recently. My watch wasn't bought as investment 2 services ago, but trying to work out its value for insurance or daydream-trade for something else has become increasingly difficult!
Ant
Explorer 1, black dial explorer 2 and models like that could well.
If you’re expecting BLNR Pepsi, green subs etc to go under list, that won’t happen in my opinion.
- - - Updated - - -
That’s an old watch to be fair
Some will, some won’t. As usual, we will likely end up somewhere in the middle of the spectrum of views.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...heckout-banner
Headlining on Bloomberg. Swatch and WOS share prices jumped 10% today. Sales in HK tripled and China doubled
I just want the list to open at Goldsmiths for an LV Sub which I would like for my 50th in 3 years, as I bought my 14060M for my 40th slightly early as it was getting discontinued.
I am not sure sales corner is an accurate barometer for Rolex prices. It is always interesting to see what happens on watchcollecting.co.uk
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Watches are sitting now on eBay.
I have said this a few times but the demand for Rolex will fall off a cliff soon. I bet 80% of waiting lists are full of people who put there name down 2 years ago to flip at a profit. Soon as there's no or minimal profit, the AD will be calling through their lists and getting plenty of no thank yous.
Rolex will be the last brand to sell below list but taking other watches that were selling above list are dropping fast.
I had my eye on a VC 4500v but they were trending at £35k+. Now they can be had under list. That said list has increased around £7k since I started looking.
Think your spot on re Rolex.The ADs will be tired of the "thankyou for the call" but the World has changed a lot since you asked me to jump thru hoops to get on the list.
For a damn watch....
The thread title does say ‘modern’, so I take that to mean watches still in production, basically the 6 digit Ceramic generation of watches.
I am not so sure the out of production watches, perhaps the 5 digit watches with aluminium bezel inserts will fall in value quite as much. Apart from the Daytona and GMT watches and a few Submariner specials like the Kermit, most of the others never really exploded price wise, so although there will be an inevitable levelling off, I don’t think there will be a crash as such.
Going back further to vintage, say the 4 digit models. Their price unlike the 5 digits has never really been linked to the newer models or list prices. They are very much priced on the sum of their parts and nice examples of any of these are getting very hard to find. I don’t see any adjustment in nice examples of these at all, if anything they will continue to slowly increase in value as people look to buy a classic.
This will continue until Elvis syndrome kicks in, those interested in the 4 digit watches start to die off
Last edited by Wallasey Runner; 13th July 2023 at 19:52.
One wonders, perhaps naively, whether a reduction in demand might lead to a reduction in crime?
That would be nice.
Just seen a headline (full article is behind a pay wall though) from the telegraph. Rolex demand up, as super rich shrug off inflation crisis
Read the line just below the photo as well. Seems like the headlines need some context and I'd rather not give some money to any newspaper after recent media events.
I think this is inevitable, and probably long overdue, although unfortunately the GMT I have been waiting on for almost 4 yrs will be one of the last to get to this point. Maybe I’ll get the call for the blue 36mm DateJust Goldsmith’s suggested they may one day sell me, maybe I’ll turn it down, depends if I’m blown away or not.
There is an imbalance of power, and I wouldn’t mind some rebalancing.
Dave
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Just wait, patience young padawans, eventually the AD's will be phoning offering prospective buyers, both the watch and a blow job, capitulation point reached , balance restored to the farce.
Mmmm, it's a difficult one, now let me think about it.
NOT!
Got a new watch, divers watch it is, had to drown the bastard to get it!
No idea how credible watchcharts.com is (and specifically for the UK market) but their Rolex index peaked in March 2022 and is now 27% off that level.
This is already happening according to my AD, with the caveat that the waiting lists are soooooo long they always sell them but it might be the 7th, 10th, 15th person on the list whereas previously it was number 1 or 2 every time
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