Reply With QuoteLolOriginally Posted by boring_sandwich
You'd better tell seabiscuit it's beaten up as he owns the SL017 now.
I don't think so and certainly not for Hertfordshire tracking at c. -4% Y on Y;
https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app...-06-01&lang=en
Whereas for Buckinghamshire maybe 9% down from peak '22,
https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app...-06-01&lang=en
Lol
You'd better tell seabiscuit it's beaten up as he owns the SL017 now.
Isn’t there quite a large lag with that data?
What do you mean?
And where is your own data to support your blanket "-10%" comment please?
Watching the market for the past 12-14 months in those specific areas. Similar houses which would have sold instantly are now being advertised for around 10% less than a year ago although still hanging around being reduced multiple times.
So, no data on sold prices whatsoever in those areas?
🥱
Better to stick to your day job and the comedy Rolex posts on TZ/TRF then......
Gareth has got you by the balls there
He’s the only one to actually back up what he’s saying with data. Might be a lag, might be anything, but he’s still the only one to back it up.
You could try get out of this on a technicality that you’re talking asking prices whereas Gareth’s talking sold prices but your tail would be between your legs
6 to 9 months.
No surprise from you the same repetitive rubbish.
The biggest comedy I see is the oversize dinner plate in the Friday thread!
What bollocks, haha.
I reckon the market has taken a turn for the worse in the last two weeks alone. You will not get that reflected in any LR sold data for many, many months to come
LR figures are the state of the market 6 to 9 months ago. A waste of time when the market is in considerable flux.
Just watch you local market very closely. That will give you a very good picture of the trend. You don’t need exact sold numbers. You will get a good idea from asking prices and you can pretty much guarantee and offer of minus 5 to 10%+ is a slam dunk these days.
I don’t doubt it and follow my area very closely. I’m on RM a couple of times per week. Things which would have been snapped up on day one are hanging around but they’re hanging around at yesterdays price.
I think asking prices will try stay steady but deals will be done behind the scenes. Agents will want their logo next to say a £1m property with a sold sticker meanwhile it exchanges at 950k+ and it takes 6 months for the sold price to go public. Everyone local will think the agent gets good prices and puts their property up with him. Rinse and repeat.
Either way BS came into the debate with the same nonsense my wife comes into any debate with - feelings. Zero evidence, zero facts.
I could not careless what others on here think but It’s fairly obvious to me what is happening in the property market, it was the same with the watch market begin of last year.
It’s just the same bunch of people generally taking the same nonsense only on a different subject.
The watch market? Not heard about this! Prey tell, what’s happened to that sandwich?
That sums up any forum, political party or workplace.
So well within the quoted time frame from Mr. BS (how appropriate......) in this instance.
"Watching the market for the past 12-14 months in those specific areas"
Just secured a 2yr fixed rate at 6.4%, only had 5 years left on repayment but I've now extended the mortgage to 15yrs interest only, as I'm only borrowing 10% of property's value and intend to move within the next 5 years. Hopefully after the 2 year fixed ends rates will settle down.
Would have continued the fixed rate repayment if everything was the same, but not too worried either way. At least payments will be considerable less, which isn't a bad thing whilst cost of living keeps rising.
“Don’t look back, you’re not heading that way.”
You may well be right that "the market" (which is a large sweeping statement in itself) has gone off a bit more of late but without the facts to back it up it can only be a gut feel/a bit of browsing analysis that you seemed to confirm in your reply.
The quoted LR time frame of 6-9 months is typical but not is not always the case. Plenty of property sales are recorded in shorter time frames on the LR and the data I linked to earlier accounts for sales agreed within the period that followed through to a final transaction. My understanding is that the average time currently to fully transact on a property sale/purchase is still in the 12-24 week period so that data is not that out of kilter.
I would 100% agree with you that the market is in a state of flux but its never as bad as the media like to portray (for example) or without hard data points to pore over.
(P.S. I edited out your first line of response as it's the G&D)
Do UK banks not finance against say 10, 20 or 30 years fixed interest?
We got 20 years fixed just under 2%. Full repayment.
Feeling a tad smug about my hefty aversion to financial risk right now (which is nice as previously was feeling a bit dumb missing out on the rewards of leveraging up). Could easily be staring at £500k+ extra debt right now if we'd played it differently, and 6% on that would be painful. Of course the world will probably right itself before long.
I'm guessing you're in America?
In the UK typically the fixed interest rate is for 2 or 5 years. There are 10 year options, but less common. There was an option of a lifetime fix a couple of years ago, but it was one lender, maybe 2.
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You edited out what bollocks, haha. It was a joke in reference to Wiley say he had you by the balls.
Some snowflakes around, but I reckon I can get away with bollocks in the G&D.
Bollocks. There I said it again.
To be fair to Boring Sandwich he probably knows every asking price over the last 12 months as he's probably boring the arse off the estate agents on a daily basis asking questions about properties with zero interest in purchasing.
As MFB Scotland succinctly put it at the time "a total timewaster"
You do realise that companies invest vast quantities of time, money and effort to get people to buy anything, whether it is via a showroom, website or mail order catalogues. And then, often, they still lose a sale. If you want a very quick no hassle sale/trade, then there are many places for that by taking a significant hit on the price
Figures published by Sky News today.
From a BBC article today.
We are putting my late father in laws house soon, sis in law suggested we let a neighbour have it at a good price to get it away due to the market at the mo, I said no we can rent it out till the market settles or the neighbour can pay the going rate, not popular but I’m in no rush for the funds.
House market still seems healthy here, houses at all price ranges selling quickly although for what I have no idea, not intent in moving.
Relevant article, worth a read.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66133116
Unsustainable levels of growth.To give some context, typical house prices on the Halifax measure are now £285,932.
That is down on the peak last August of £293,992, but still well up on the figure two years ago (very relevant for those remortgaging two-year fixes) of £260,358.
The pre pandemic level of house prices in December 2019 was £238,963.
Wishy panicked, hitting the nitrous during covid really juiced the market in a short space of time.shenanigans.
A return to close to pre pandemic levels wouldn't be the worst outcome.
Last edited by Passenger; 8th July 2023 at 10:40.
Why is it that you people think the average house price will go down? Only in short term or also long term (5 - 10 years)??
Historically house prices keep rising. After every top, a crash came but the prices recover from that only to end up higher than before. For the Netherlands.
30 years ago the average price was €95k. Now its €300k more.
House pricing seem to cool down a bit right now over here. But i am sure the prices will be higher than they were pre Russian war (start raise interest; house price cool doen) over 5 or 10 years.
Personally I think, hope really for the good of the UK, that it´ll be short term, 1 to 3 years range...the fundamentals...housing supply, remains unchanged. But it´s, the landscape, is comprised of a lot of sometimes quite different micro, local markets and some regions remain woefully underfunded cf others, so it´s entirely possible for wide regional variations of both price and any sense of rebound. Just my tuppence worth.
My properties fwiw were acquired closer to the 30 year ago mark- prices, than in recent, lets call them ´´frothier´´ years...thus even 30 per cent hit to notional values...unlikely I´d say , fingers crossed , would be just turbulence and accepted as part- parcel of the looong game.
Last edited by Passenger; 8th July 2023 at 11:12.
I claim no expertise on the subject, but logically there must be a limit right? Loads of people can't afford a house anymore, and those that can are usually leveraged up to their eyeballs (i.e. they can't afford it, the bank can). If legislation was introduced tomorrow limiting mortgage borrowing to 3x for example, house prices would crash. They're propped up by excessive lending IMO.
Logically yes but consider the historical narrative, An Englishmans home is his castle, the huge media output about house buying and lauding property speculation, the colossal emotional as well as financial investment Brits frequently have in their homes...a house is a big wealth signifier and culturally we do love all that, sometimes I think to an illogical extent...and you know that legislations never coming in.
Last edited by Passenger; 8th July 2023 at 11:19.
And of course the bank of mum and Dad.
My take is that whilst house prices are over valued as long as banks help people as per the article it is going to be a soft landing and most people will be able to sit it out.
I am sure if I sold today (moved 2021) I would be happy to get what I paid or take a offer 10% less, but I am not moving for a while. If I did I would also expect to make an offer on my new house so some of it evens out, and of course I avoided SDLT when I moved thanks to the holiday.
Ah yes, THANK YOU, I forgot about the Bank of M and D... AND they´ve of course seen how over decades prices only go one way, will likely consider rent a waste of money- paying some other buggers mortgage, will probably have considerable equity stored up over years...Last place we sold in UK...all cash, a mum bought for her daughter...400 large in 2011, we´d paid 245 8 years earlier...for context, was a 1.5 bedroom flat, maybe 750 sq ft, with sliver of garden,..which seemed crazy to me back then.
Interestingly UK AVERAGE lifetime earnings is a little bit more than half a million, which really gives some context, insight into just how illogically we are about our house prices...wacky cf what I own in a pretty Spanish village with beaches and a nice city near by.
Last edited by Passenger; 8th July 2023 at 12:13.
Average life time earning half a million?? That’s a crazy concept. Less than £10k a year. Zero hour contracts have a lot to answer for. Earning less than £12.5k ish means not paying income tax and the country is meant to survive?
I don’t get into political discussion generally it only ever spirals negatively, the government have let this country go to the dogs for too long, reverting the trend isn’t going to be easy now.
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Cheers for the thoughts.
I don’t believe that there is a bank of parents for most people. If it’s true that in average one earns a half mil, how can they save for their children.
Here in the Netherlands parents can make one gift of €100k to their children tax free for buying a house which isnt anninvestment. More is heavy taxed. This rule ends as per 2023 so no more tax free gift. I don’t know any parents who are able to gift a large sum for their children to buy a house…
Lifetime earning is not half a mill. No idea where Passwnger got that nugget of info from?
£30k times 45 years is £1,350,000.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...tes/2004to2020
”In 2020, the UK's lifetime earnings per head also grew annually by 1.2% to £566,000.”
A lot of people don't work for various reasons, so will drag the average down significantly
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Impressive if they earnt £30k 45 years ago.
Top 10 Lender here in the UK...
https://www.mortgageadvicebureau.com...iggest-lender/
Also don't confuse earnings with house price gains - some London property has increased 10x or more 1990-2020
Good point!
Interesting, useful to see it confirmed.
Around a million households with a fixed-rate mortgage will see their monthly mortgage repayments go up by about £500 by the end of 2026, according to the Bank of England.
For the average household, monthly interest payments will go up by about £220 if they remortgage during the second half of this year and their rate goes up by about 3.25 percentage points, its latest financial stability report said.
Around 4.5 million people with a fixed-rate mortgage have seen their monthly repayments go up since interest rates started to rise in late 2021, the Bank found.
Another four million households on a typical two-year or five-year fixed deal face higher payments by the end of 2026.
However, a growing number of mortgage holders are either extending the length of their deal or overpaying their mortgage to cushion the impact of higher rates, the Bank said.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-business-live
One of my friends extended his mortgage by 15 years to keep the costs down. I used a calculator and if we did ours now it would have been 1k more a month based on what we agreed in 2022. It is scary out there.
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