Reply With QuoteIndeed - if anyone wants to sell me a milgauss at 30% off before prices really crash get in touch now.Originally Posted by smokey99
I guess we are all aware of the softening market prices for certain brands and models but thought was still an interesting read.
Hopefully is a sign of a continued correction in a horribly inflated market.
Will be interesting to see if the reduction in values and the safety buffer of instant profits means it will be possible to buy from an AD with a little less grovelling?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...morgan-stanley
Indeed - if anyone wants to sell me a milgauss at 30% off before prices really crash get in touch now.
I keep on seeing this but not seeing the effects unfortunately.
If anyone wants to sell me a CHNR or SD4K at 30% market value I’m all ears
I suspect the how will come from the trade in side first like new banks upping mortgages before savings.
I can’t read the article, it wants you to subscribe in order to see it - which I’m not doing.
Any other way to see it?
It says that whilst the second hand prices of the 30 most traded Rolex watches fell 8% this quarter, they are still up an overall 21% since January 2021. So maybe even if the bubble for a quick buck has slowed the overall trend is still well up.
You can just use this site to read it https://archive.ph/2VVbz
Thank you. Makes interesting reading and suggests the dizzy prices asked for some models are falling, but I wouldn’t expect to see any significant change until the day arrives when you can walk into an AD and just buy a watch at list.
Well up but still falling. With the economic outlook it isn’t going to trend back up any time soon.
Very difficult to say as standard statistics, but in the reality, when you try to buy the second hand, the price is still very high. When you produce 10 and the market request 10000, that is expected.
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Interesting piece from the US perspective from Federico talks watches. He says the “trade whatsapp” groups are showing Rolex and PP stabilising whilst AP and Vacheron continuing to fall.
https://youtu.be/dRs5TVf9DfU
Steve
VC falling off a cliff and trading below list, except maybe for the Blue and hold fire if you are in the market for an AP. I suppose only a seller or a buyer on the lookout would know if this is all true, but a downward correction I think would be welcome by most, apart from sellers of course.
I dunno. Lots of ways to look at this.
C24 search:-
SS Watches
2022 to 2010
UK market
Sub (all SS Variants) 356
Daytona 116500 (all SS Variants) 116
AP RO (all SS Variants) 171
VC OS (all SS case variants) 66
I guess the question is whether 350-odd Subs for sale in the UK is healthy or not? Especially at what I would assume is an average price around £12k?
So what to do?
1. Spend +5k over list now in the current financial landscape (how many stop chasing ADs for new with questionable flippability vs wait for Greys to lower price) or
2. Still wait for ADs to give you you that call - which may be loosening up somewhat as flippers leave the market (and Greys dont acquire because their safes are full).
Great business model on the way up...but on the way down I suspect its still all about who blinks first and loses their nerve?
Last edited by Guycord; 5th November 2022 at 12:59.
Rolex prices dropping doesn’t affect me, as I’m not a seller. I do think the supply issues that have been such a feature of the last few years are going to improve, that’s good news for the normal buyer, who just wants to buy one to mark a significant event.
I would very very interested to know what is happening in the industry, but there is certainly a lot of grey inventory. There will always be buyers who are too rich to care and want a watch now, but that’s got to be a minority of buyers. I suspect most potential grey buyers will know the market is falling, and will keep their powder dry, as they won’t wish to overpay in a falling market.
Slower grey market (possibly), less buy in, less interest from flippers, leaving normal buyers with less competition.
I can’t see that as anything other than good
Dave
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And don’t forget thus is pre owned (nearly new)
The vintage market is, as always, steady.
I think supply issues will remain will there is even a small margin, if times address tight and you can make even a few hundred, more people will do it and some may be more obvious so if the dealer black lists you who cares.
Companies like watchfinder are probably putting massive margins in to whatever they but to protect themselves. On the non blue chip brands I can imagine they are on a knife edge.
Given that the 3 companies in focus here (Rolex/Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe) are in private ownership that MS have absolutely no real world insight into their business/the market at grass roots level tells you all the merit you need to apply here.
I see the Girard Perregaux Laureato 42mm is now available at some greys at a 18% discount off RRP. This was until recently trading at some 20% above its £11.1k RRP
https://www.watchesworld.com/shop/gi...o-42mm-110873/
Last edited by ryanb741; 6th November 2022 at 07:03.
I think its just a report for a bit of fun for bored hobbyists analyst, considering the total market size of second hand watches is about the size of a single average large cap company, i.e. there is no money in it for them. Similar to Goldman who does a overly complicated report predicting winner at every World Cup, invariably predicts that Germany will do well (no sh!t)
Surely it must be in PP/Rolex plus other decent makes to keep supply tight. It's not in their interest to return to the days when Grey Dealers would be selling the watches off at a discount as it devalues the brand.
I worked for Uncle Morgan for a few years and don't remember the firm ever producing an analysis into the prices of high-end wristwatches, or any other luxury goods. Seems odd. I assume they're considered an investment instrument now, of the sort that an investment form might concern itself with.
PP and Rolex are privately owned so they can do what they want. The likes of Omega have to answer to shareholders so their mantra will be to push sales in whatever way possible.
I think demand will be sponging up supply for a good while yet. The grey margin might come down but back to rrp? No. I've had a few conversations with an AD over the last year or two, the last one being in September. A softening of the situation is the best collectors can hope for into the middle distance. A request in Nov '19 and a result in March 21 was pleasing to achieve for me at rrp.
I think buyers are also cautious given the economy.
Just my two cents.
Be interesting to know how many of the 50 want the watch and how many just dreaming of an easy several thousand pounds profit.
Perhaps they’re all hiding from you? 🤣
Of course they do, they are so FOS.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
Was out with friends on Saturday night and hadn't seen them in 2 or 3 years.
Guy is wearing a new BLRO on a jubilee and his previous watch was a Rolex Airking which he bought about 6-7 yrs previous from WOS.
He had taken his Airking into the Rolex boutique Glasgow and got chatting with salesman and tried on a couple exhibition GMTs.
Few weeks later he popped his head in to see if watch was back from service which it wasn't.
Guy phones him the next day to say his Airking had arrived back and would he like to purchase one of those nice Pepsi watches he liked. He didn't need to be asked twice obviously.
Basically a guy with not a big spend but still had the previous watch purchase and then getting it serviced by them.
So stuff does turn up.
Keep the faith.
What I don't understand is why it would happen? Surely any AD is going to have a "list" as long as your arm including many people who would have spent a fortune with them. What would be the motivation for the AD to sell to someone like your friend?
Also, I always assumed that demand was so high that watches were "allocated" by management (according to whatever protocols) and not the shopfloor staff. So at least 2 AD staff would have to give the nod before a sale.
Obviously fabulous if you get lucky but sticks in the craw somewhat for people like me who have some modest history but not a sniff!
?? Not many items apart from high end exotic cars where you can walkout the showroom without taking a bath & get a good return instead.
$64,000 question is how long that’s going to last. Many people who bought grey and paid over list may start to get nervous and decide to take what’s on offer now. If supply increases then you’d expect grey prices to drop.
Current events may not dampen demand for professional models. You do wonder, however, if other models which have benefited from the madness will start to seem less desirable as economic reality starts to bite.
All this demand lark is rather silly and show short sightedness. Demand has always been there for sports models from those that want to buy and keep. That group has not changed in my opinion, argue if you like. In those days you could get a model with a 3 month wait, or grey at around the same or little more. The real market is still that. What’s been changing is watches as investment. Buy, keep for a bit and flip for profit. Once that goes the pyramid collapses and we have the core.
These ‘lists’ are not people who are buying to keep but rather people who know they can flip. When you can’t it falls down. The fact so many don’t get this is exactly why we are globally in this mess. Watches are like bitcoin, invest and happy days, all driven by sentiment.
The worst is clearly yet to come, despit the naysayers, there is no magic turnaround for the global economy, so asset classes will fall, and the most fragile of them all will fall harder. No one needs a watch.
Last edited by Kash; 8th November 2022 at 20:25.
All true. But also the hype of recent years has attracted all sorts of new buyers who have zero interest in watches prior but now do want a rolex to buy and wear and not just flip. Therefore I would suggest demand is higher than it ever has been and will remain higher for some time.
Grey prices surely will continue to fall but don’t think it will quite be back to how it was in say 2015.
Respectfully I disagree. The attraction I see there is status and wealth, so a fad. Once it falls then what’s the point? I also think Rolex are making more sports models than ever, albeit not to meet this ‘demand’. Also I personally believe there is more than enough real supply, the market is saturated. Greys have so much stock, private investors are carrying loads for the upside, like b BTL once all this hits the market it will change the dynamics, and I think that’s what this article is stating. Will be a very interesting few years and it will take years to settle.
Prime example right now. Two of the must have, to the moon, short run blah blah watches on sc, have they sold? No. And it’s very rare to see two of them…. What would a dealer offer now? I’d bet 5k less, but what do they know? And we have only just started the downturn.
Last edited by Kash; 8th November 2022 at 20:46.
Most watch questions I get at work are 'Ryan you're the watch guy. What's the best watch for an investment?'.
That is 90% of the questions. Based on that I reckon Kash is right because if we get to the situation where the answer is 'none of them, you might break even with a Rolex though' then that 90% won't be potential buyers, leaving the 10% or so who just want to buy a watch to (God forbid) wear.
Wonder what happens to fan boys attitude when investment and subsequently status factors are diminished.
This is my experience also. Sickening.
I’m not a subscriber either but assume it was one those you can view as a free article i. e once a month?
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I think falling prices and wider availability for buyers who have no interest in flipping is inevitable, and that trend is underway. Supply and demand goes in cycles, and I think it’s clear that the downward trend is prices has started, although there is a way to go imho.
When a flipper gets the call, I suspect they will check out the resell options, find this constrained, then pass. Not all of the time, but much more than we have seen.
I’m pretty confident that by this time next year, I’ll have had two watches supplied, one considered hot. None of this really matters, I’ll be pleased as a watch-nerd to have them, and the decrease in the value of those I own will be irrelevant.
It’s about time. There must be some nervous business holding a lot of stock at values they will never realise.
D
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As well as what’s in the article, and thanks to those that extracted the main points, there are lots of other signs.
There’s been a clear increase in decent watches appearing on Sales Corner in the last 2-3 months and they’re not selling that quickly.
A couple of Instagram watch sewer accounts I follow clearly show a trend of watches that are priced at what would have considered ‘well priced’ a few months ago.
Browsing on Chrono24 if you find the watch you like, say a Rolex SS sports watch, and then scroll down beneath the main advert you can check the clear decline in asking prices this year.
It’s taken them from ludicrous pricing down to to just ridiculous!
Otherwise I’m with Kash and agree that once the thin veil of a 100% secure and growing investment has disappeared so will the froth on the market.
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Watch ‘seller’ accounts…..not ‘sewer’
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These now available when they were at greys at a 30% premium until recently
https://www.bucherer.com/uk/en/watch...294-159-0.html
They used to be new on Chrono24 for about 30% under RRP if I remember correctly. Clearly they've benefitted from the unavailability of the RO, and from being recognised as one of the few plausible alternatives. The Onyx dial 'Infinity' was the really convincing one though, they should try that again.
Most people will simply hold onto their watch for a few years rather than sell at a loss unless they really have to. This is the kickback that will prevent prices going too low. It all depends on how much panic buying there is. Most sellers are not daft enough to sell today.
I’ve a poor record of forecasting price movements of anything. That said, whether or not it’s a good idea to sell today rather than wait is obviously something we’ll only know some time later!
Rolex prices have dropped and may drop further, there is no question on that. However there is also a very good chance that the prices will recover in the medium term and will continue to escalate.
Therefore one can conclude that only the foolish or the desperate will sell in the current environment.
I think a lot of people do not see the wood for the trees by thinking a short term downturn will change the long term trend or situation a whole lot…gone are the days, we can reminisce and regret, it’s not coming back
OR, some people (not aimed at you ac11111) don’t really a) know the real, current market as they aren’t, bluntly, “in it” so are commenting from the outside and/or b) have an agenda or axe to grind (forlorn/disaffected wait listers maybe?) in the default doom and gloom modus operandi that is so prevalent for so many topics now.
Yes, the grey market is down/correcting to where it should be after overheating but to claim that hard to get watches will be freely available in the next 12-18 months shows a naivety of the real world, grass roots demand/supply models that actually exist in the wider market and not on the incrediblely micro view that is on line watch forums…
As ever, a modicum of balance should be present in a conversation piece on such topics in my view.
This kind of investment talk never used to occur until about 2019 and completely put me off these brands. I used to buy Rolex because I thought it was cool, having seen them on the wrist of Bond etc. Talking about them both as if they are a cryptocurrency to bet on and as an instagram show of wealth killed it for me.
IMHO I prefer the Laureato to most iterations of the RO - it's slimmer and has to my eye a better bracelet integration. It's obviously not quite as well finished given the price point but crucially it seems like you can now go in and buy one which you definitely can't with a RO.
It came out before the Nautilus and Overseas as well- some people saying RO/Nautilus knock-off but actually that's not the case.
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