Reply With QuoteAbsolutely agree.Originally Posted by learningtofly
I like it too - similarly the Octo from Bulgari. I can see at least one of those in my collection in the future, but it won't be any time soon as I'm not in buying mode right now (well, aside from my WTB for a Ballon Bleu).IMHO I prefer the Laureato to most iterations of the RO - it's slimmer and has to my eye a better bracelet integration. It's obviously not quite as well finished given the price point but crucially it seems like you can now go in and buy one which you definitely can't with a RO.
It came out before the Nautilus and Overseas as well- some people saying RO/Nautilus knock-off but actually that's not the case.
As for Rolex pricing, the hit will be taken on the halo models that became "list" only and stupidly expensive to procure through the grey network. I would think most others will remain fairly stable and - at some point - will recommence their slow upward trajectory again. Nobody who bought sensibly will be taking a bath, that's for sure.
Absolutely agree.
There must be folks out there, like me, who don’t like queuing and wouldn’t join a waiting list come hell or high water. Stuff Rolex etc with ludicrous waiting lists. I don’t see the point unless you want an investment due to scarcity. Rant over.
I wonder if interest free credit will disappear too. That would certainly put off some buyers.
I wonder too what will happen to Tudor and Omega now they've priced themselves into the market Rolex used to occupy 10 years ago. If Rolexes are available in dealers, second hand prices will sit below that, and then what will happen to Tudor sales? Good news for those of us who quite fancy one of their new offerings and can pick one up with a nice second hand (or even new) discount. Grand Seiko could find itself in a bit of a fix too.
"A man of little significance"
The AP RO is actually thinner than the laureato across the range, whether 37, 39, jumbo or 41, so might just be your perception and also it’s true that all sizes feels about 2-3mm diameter bigger on wrists due to the shape and how the bracelet conforms to the wrist, though if it’s the ultimate thinness you want the 2 generations ago mid size RO from 2000s wins at 7.5mm only, even thinner than the jumbo extra thin and it wraps around perfectly.IMHO I prefer the Laureato to most iterations of the RO - it's slimmer and has to my eye a better bracelet integration. It's obviously not quite as well finished given the price point but crucially it seems like you can now go in and buy one which you definitely can't with a RO.
It came out before the Nautilus and Overseas as well- some people saying RO/Nautilus knock-off but actually that's not the case.
Last edited by ac11111; 10th November 2022 at 13:03.
This is exactly what will happen. I was in Ernest Jones yesterday asking them how business was and they were saying it was so so but that they were going to remove interest free credit and make it interest bearing soon and they said that would have a big impact
Ah ok fair enough, and some of them (especially the one Devonian picked up recently) are incredibly beautiful however it's all moot as you can't just walk in and buy one anyway.The AP RO is actually thinner than the laureato across the range, whether 37, 39, jumbo or 41, so might just be your perception and also it’s true that all sizes feels about 2-3mm diameter bigger on wrists due to the shape and how the bracelet conforms to the wrist, though if it’s the ultimate thinness you want the 2 generations ago mid size RO from 2000s wins at 7.5mm only, even thinner than the jumbo extra thin and it wraps around perfectly.
As long as inflation is above the lending rate it will still be fine ;)
I think you are delusional.
Buyers who were stupid enough to buy watches purely as an investment will not have the resources or brains to hold.
It’s the same group of people who got caught up in crypto in the last 2 years.
Amateur instagram “investors”
People who buy expensive things, not just watches, as an investment are rarely stupid. The stupid ones are those who have to sell because the central heating boiler packed up or the car broke down etc. Those who buy and just sit on them no matter what happens to the markets nearly always makes money.
I know nothing of crypto so I cannot comment on that.
Totally agree as long as you don’t have to sell if your car packs up then you’ll always be quids in
I can see Rolex always be in the 30% above list no matter what economic current climate we will be in as there will always be people who can afford one and want one
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Unfortunately I have to let you all know that I received cast iron proof today that the market is in total freefall and a crash is inevitable...
...a Rolex AD got in touch with me today and offered to actually sell a watch. True story!
Last edited by M1011; 11th November 2022 at 15:17.
It must be true because I got the call. I have a gift for bad timing so me getting a Daytona proves a market free fall and end of civilisation as we know it.
I think I remember you turning down a black previously so well done for getting the white.
I think that’s why I got the white because I declined the black one. I’m not keen on the black one and I would have been on the naughty step if I sold it, so best option was to decline the offer and wait.
I was offered an explorer II at Heathrow a couple of weeks ago. Black face, though, and I already have one (albeit old) so I declined, hoping for white face before Christmas
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Not surprised people being offered watches, a lot of people on the list will be passing as no profit in them for a quick flip. This is just the start of a long uk down turn, there is no rebound in sight that’s for sure and word travels fast
Lol, has it come to this
For the past few years it’s often been asked why Rolex don’t just raise prices, given the empty shops. But they have been proved right, as ever they are playing the long game.
When we walk into inflationary times, the price of nearly everything goes up. It's not a guarantee that Rolex watches will rise in price but the likelihood is high.
Im happy to be proved wrong , but I think Rolex have raised prices in the uk within the last 10 days to reflect the disparity between the Swiss Franc and the £. Im sure it was covered in a recent Federico talks watches video.
Kash has Boring Sandwich stolen your log in details?
Haha not at all. There is just a lot of head in the sand going on here, it’s all rather odd. We all know prices are falling and we all know dealer buy in rates are falling even faster. So what happens to the quick flippers on the list?
We also know the recession has only just started.
I didn’t make any of that up, but I can do the sums
Completely agree with this. Even sales corner has had multiple watches coming on and not only not selling but being reduced and sitting around for weeks. Not too long ago they were there for under an hour. The cost of living has gone up. A recession is on the way so people are tightening up finances. This is all only just starting! People are passing over watches when called (this is being stated on multiple groups). Chrono24 is showing a massive decrease in prices as are all sales platforms. Many even saying chrono24 is at least 2 months behind and not reflective of the current market.
How far they will drop is anyone’s guess. I imagine we all just hope people who want them can get one and who knows…. Maybe we will start to see them in windows again in the future.
Last edited by Stuno1; 12th November 2022 at 14:08.
Maybe my phone will ring then, fingers crossed.
Already seeing subs and SD hanging about a touch longer on SC. People starting to realise that 30% over list might be ambitious when the crunch bites and all the flippers Start heading to watch finder to get their cash out.
As ever, when a recession or economic shock comes along and things drop in price, it’s a great time to buy and hold if you have the funds available. That goes for pretty much all asset classes.
Personally, I don’t see sports/popular Rolex below or even at/just above list ever again in the secondary market. Maybe 36mm DJs will be easily available, but meh. Prices will drop more from here, sure, but remember they are historically still very high and the [Rolex/Patek/AP] watch market has structurally changed.
Things will settle in the middle of the more extreme views either side of the spectrum.
The recession is a UK phenomena. Most other countries are in a short one now but will return to growth from next quarter. UK however is an outlier and will be in a recession for at least the next 4 quarters. This bit of the forum isn't the platform to explain why. Check GDP forecast by country here.
https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/gdp-growth-rate
What that means is that the situation in UK may be a bit crap, but other countries may take up the demand. On a sort of related note I was offered a VC Overseas today by an AD.
Last edited by ryanb741; 12th November 2022 at 15:17.
More than happy for you to pass over and share AD details :)
Good luck with them making an offer!
Just for fun I just did an online WF quote for a 124060. RRP 7500, offer was instant 8000-8500 on condition.
I reckon that would have been more like 10 or so in the spring. Some dealers who have bought in stock at those prices and still have them must be on very thin ice.
I can’t comment on that, but I was referring to a substantial lift into a different price bracket, which which was sometimes suggested when shops were empty and Daytonas were trading for multiples of RRP. Now it’s clear why their steady as she goes, don’t kill the golden goose strategy works so well. They will still find plenty of grateful buyers at list price, even in a downturn.
Why so?
They can probably still sell it now for 10k as a dealer. They may already have sold for £12k months ago.
Many normal businesses have to sell excess stock at a loss at times, just part of business surely.
Perhaps those that will be on think ice are those who refused to believe the market was changing and did not manage their cash flow accordingly.
I know what you mean, but if you have bought many examples of a watch at the price they are more likely to sell there's little to no profit in it, and they have to pay the running costs.
If the market is down trending sales will be slow but costs won't stop and you can see the fire sale approach they are taking with non blue chip brands.
Which model / did you go for it?
I don't want to see Mario flipped on SC to make way for an overseas Ryan!
I can't really justify the expenditure but I am liaising with the AD with regards to a fellow member here being able to avail of it. Don't even know what colour dial - it's a a bit weird tbh so I'm seeking clarity but is based on spend at the local branch of that AD (primarily on Grand Seiko and Tudor) although I've not bought a watch there for 6 months
Last edited by ryanb741; 12th November 2022 at 23:09.
Seems things are changing fast, good times ahead (from a watch buying availability perspective).
The 'self-winding' model is an excellent all round IMO, although they really have jacked up the RRP on these now.
Daytona 16520 black and white dials, both 1998 models fully boxed with papers, WF & Watch club passed on making an offer and two other dealers only take on consignment commission sale only. The amount of stock sitting with grey dealers as the market goes South, must be concerning to anyone holding stock and private individuals who were holding out for bigger profit. Looking around, seems to be more Royal Oaks with grey dealers than with Audemars boutiques!
If the market is dipping now as we run up to Christmas, it is going to be a bear pit in the new year.
Please no sense of common sense on this thread, too many think a rebound is round the corner.
I think back to the video from that Bark and Jack clown, saying that the bubble would never pop because it was "too big to fail".
I just got noone gets caught to the point it really hurts them financially.
Could be worse, there are lots of people out there who paid crazy sums for semi classic cars as investments who must be bricking it...
Just wanted to repeat again that the recession is a mainly UK event vs other major economies who are forecast to return to minor growth from next Q. So it could be that the market sustains itself to a certain degree better overseas vs the UK which is forecast to be in recession for at least a year.
So maybe the UK will be the place to pick a bargain up. Bet let's also stop the notion that this will be a severe downturn like the GFC with mass layoffs etc. The tech sector has gone through some mass redundancies recently but that's largely because those organisations throught their farts don't stink and overhired. The same doesn't apply to the wider market and unemployment is expected to increase but still to low levels by historical standards.
Last edited by ryanb741; 13th November 2022 at 06:39.
Personally, I think that’s far too rosy a picture. It looks like we’re heading into a good 18 months of recession, and it’ll destroy the hospitality sector - or what’s left of it. Public spending cuts will further decimate the NHS, and double digit inflation will place those without savings in real jeopardy as well. You’re completely out of touch with the real world, Ryan.
and what remains of UK manufacturing also faces extinction.
I think we've strayed a bit?
I don't think it will be as bad as you think but it is almost certain that prices will be weak for at least a year but you have to remember that inflation will help to stop prices dropping too much and then they will follow the upward trend of overall price escalation.
Also Rolex's are going to be sold abroad because UK prices are cheap compared to world wide prices.
As someone who has never sold a watch in my life I am not really concerned about prices but most of us, other than those who paid top whack in recent months, don't have much to worry about. A 10%- 25% drop is hardly anything in the overall scheme of things. If prices do drop then it's a buying opportunity so it's not all gloom and doom.
you seriously have no idea as to what inflation is or means
Well I lived through it during the 1970s and 1980s and did well out of it.
It's quite easy to manage actually.
Simpler times which you simply can't grasp.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
It's not my forecast Tony it's that of various economists, EY Item club and so on. And again this is all UK - centric, EU and US economies expected to return to growth from next Q.
Let's see as a forecast is of course just that. Reality usually tends to be better than we feared but worse than we hoped for.
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