Luxury watch prices plummet on weak Chinese consumer confidence

[earlofsodbury]

I look forward to the day I see it for sale. "By auction.....Property of former dictator"

"One ruthless owner, watch is heavily stained by the blood of innocent women and children..."

[12manywatches]

In all these years of following watches I’m still yet to see anyone pop up and say ‘I paid £49,000 for a steel daytona’. I’ve seen people say they’ve paid 50% over RRP, maybe even 60/70%, but where are all the people that were supposedly paying 3x or 4x retail?

I’m sure there are trust fund people and city slickers with huge bonuses etc that have paid silly money, but I’d imagine they are very few and far between. Watch prices look like they’ve just gone back to 2021 prices, before that crazy boom at the end of last year and beginning of this year. Anyone that paid RRP iI’d imagine are very happy still - that’s if they even care about watch prices, which I know a lot of people don’t.

Even these are under RRP now, be interesting to see whether it's bottomed out or has some legs left.

https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-...cookie-monster

[higham5]

Rolex PP AP et al may not request sight of balances, but they are studying purchase history fairly intently which in itself gives insight to customer spending power.

The market could be flooded with people wanting to sell at the moment with an easy 20+ sellers to 1 buyer.
What is preventing this currently is that those who want to sell have expectations of clawing back most of their last years purchase price, and that isnt happening.
This is what is holding back the floodgates, not the amount of people wanting to sell.

People who bought at RRP or not hugely inflated numbers above RRP are still okay. Those who splashed 50k on a turquoise OP etc.. less so.

Re your last sentence Celia, the reference in the article to an increase of 240% over 6 months is huge, imagine buying at the top of that peak, the drop must be yawning chasm.

[Padders]

Not very nice Mick has a point

He does? What the hell is a distressed purchase?

[Kitsan]

He does? What the hell is a distressed purchase?

I mean it is a term, but it's out of necessity, rather than for pleasure. Not something you could really classify a luxury watch under.

[BRGS]

Interesting article from the OP thanks for posting. I'm interested as there are a few watches I would like to own, but the extreme prices are a problem as I don't like the things I own to massively depreciate.

I think this is a really typical "early recession" situation. I have been an adult though 3 recessions up to now.

Early 80s Thatcher recession, high unemployment, I was unemployed and it was tough to find a job
Early 90s massive interest rates ERM, Gulf War, I could barely make my mortgage payments, lots of people I knew in negative equity crisis
2008 Global banking crash, by this stage I was financially secure but the World took a bath and my own business lost a huge amount as the bank withdrew my facility in France and I had to close the operation and chose to pay everyone we owed rather than go bust
2022? Post covid supply chain crisis, Ukraine war, Brexit shock, high inflation, weak public finances

It looks like we are heading into a recession and people are battening down the hatches and converting assets to cash on the basis that they think there is worse to come. If interest rates go up and up we could see property prices soften. People who have some cash will jump in at the bottom and will win when the economy recovers. People who bought stuff at the top will lose, whether they can afford to or not. Super luxury items that you don't really need, like expensive watches, modern art are going to take a hit. You can see in the modern art market that Bitcoin is widely used to buy and the value of that has dropped dramatically, so that has impacted prices. Thank goodness I don't understand Bitcoin and NFTs.

Anyway what was I going on about? Oh yes sure the prices for second hand super luxury items will soften during a recession and might go below RRP. If you can afford to hang on until it is over they will recover. If not then you will have to dump them/pawn them for cash and you might lose some money. But this is not a new thing and I feel that we can predict how it will go.

[verv]

Re your last sentence Celia, the reference in the article to an increase of 240% over 6 months is huge, imagine buying at the top of that peak, the drop must be yawning chasm.

Yep, time to whip out the aloe vera.

[ryanb741]

Interesting article from the OP thanks for posting. I'm interested as there are a few watches I would like to own, but the extreme prices are a problem as I don't like the things I own to massively depreciate.

I think this is a really typical "early recession" situation. I have been an adult though 3 recessions up to now.

Early 80s Thatcher recession, high unemployment, I was unemployed and it was tough to find a job
Early 90s massive interest rates ERM, Gulf War, I could barely make my mortgage payments, lots of people I knew in negative equity crisis
2008 Global banking crash, by this stage I was financially secure but the World took a bath and my own business lost a huge amount as the bank withdrew my facility in France and I had to close the operation and chose to pay everyone we owed rather than go bust
2022? Post covid supply chain crisis, Ukraine war, Brexit shock, high inflation, weak public finances

It looks like we are heading into a recession and people are battening down the hatches and converting assets to cash on the basis that they think there is worse to come. If interest rates go up and up we could see property prices soften. People who have some cash will jump in at the bottom and will win when the economy recovers. People who bought stuff at the top will lose, whether they can afford to or not. Super luxury items that you don't really need, like expensive watches, modern art are going to take a hit. You can see in the modern art market that Bitcoin is widely used to buy and the value of that has dropped dramatically, so that has impacted prices. Thank goodness I don't understand Bitcoin and NFTs.

Anyway what was I going on about? Oh yes sure the prices for second hand super luxury items will soften during a recession and might go below RRP. If you can afford to hang on until it is over they will recover. If not then you will have to dump them/pawn them for cash and you might lose some money. But this is not a new thing and I feel that we can predict how it will go.

It's a strange one this time though as the job losses associated with recession are unlikely to occur. In fact Labour shortage is one of the exacerbating factors. Part of me does think the media are over blowing the issue - of course rising costs are going to have a severe impact on many people but assuming most people keep their jobs then true disaster should be averted and let's not forget a big part of these rising costs is deliberate on the part of government by increasing interest rates.

[Gareth-W]

Even these are under RRP now, be interesting to see whether it's bottomed out or has some legs left.

https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-...cookie-monster

You need to add the 6% Buyers premium to that hammer price and it is subject to VAT too. So that's £1,800.06 plus VAT @ 20.0% = £32,160.07 total for the buyer vs. UK list (AD supplied/brand new) of £32,550.00. So the seller has lost a couple of grand (he/she obviously set the reserve too low at £30,000.....rookie mistake there) but the buyer hasn't really gained anything worthwhile over buying such a piece from a Rolex AD

[Devonian]

Bit touchy aren't you? I rest my case.

I had no idea that people were getting "vast sums of money". I knew people with businesses that had to close and welcomed the money to keep their family fed and a roof over their heads?

But you're saying lots of the recipients bought house extensions and Rolex with the money? Maybe a small minority of the feckless did. Otherwise, what you describe sounds very much like a Daily Fail or Torygraph headline.

And for many, there was some new disposable income with working from home and no commuting and not going out, but it wasn't the rosy picture you paint of people lining their pockets and living the high life.

You said, " – the amount of money that people were getting in lockdown with furlough, bounce back loans et al, was incredible." That sounds like you saying all people were getting incredible sums of money. But whatever. We'll never see eye to eye so have a nice weekend.

I would elaborate further, but with you I really can’t be bothered. It’s you that comments on my posts, not the other way round, that said though, you enjoy having a dig at many posters in the bear pit. I’ve zero desire to engage with you.

I do agree with you that we’ll never see eye to eye. Enjoy your life fella. Good bye.

[JPE]

In all these years of following watches I’m still yet to see anyone pop up and say ‘I paid £49,000 for a steel daytona’. I’ve seen people say they’ve paid 50% over RRP, maybe even 60/70%, but where are all the people that were supposedly paying 3x or 4x retail?

Just as weird as when someone has been in a car accident and reports it to their friends, they are always the innocent party. I've never met the guilty one. Not even once.

[MB2]

There is a big difference between a wealthy person cutting back on buying new goods and someone having to make a distressed purchase because they have hit hard times.

Those who have to sell should never have bought it in the first place when they have to sell at the first hiccup. These are the purchases that will flood the market and drive prices down. It all depends on how many of these people there are compared to those whose just cut back on the buying but don't have to sell.

It just shows that companies such as Rolex and PP etc need to be fussy who they sell to in order to protect their brand image.

A lot of people probably just followed the "my ISA is yielding nothing" logic and, just as they were happy to liquidate their ISA if the money was more useful to them somewhere else, they are happy to liquidate their Rolex/PP/Crypto if it is going down in price doesn't mean they can't afford it just no longer see it useful. I sold some of my shares to move house (when SDLT was down) doesn't mean I couldn't afford either or could have taken a bigger mortgage instead.

As to "fussy who they sell to" we are all unlikley to be in the demographic they would choose with little/no insta following.

[MB2]

He does? What the hell is a distressed purchase?

He means a distressessd sale - made out of necessity not desire. I think it is more likely a moving of assets around, but take the point a lot of people would only buy an expensive watch if they never thought they would need that cash, but as prices have boomed/beaten inflation I expect a fair few have seen their watches as part of their asset portfolio and are cashing out - not through distress but as they see the peak or no further gains coming.

[petethegeek]

Just as weird as when someone has been in a car accident and reports it to their friends, they are always the innocent party. I've never met the guilty one. Not even once.

Equally strange, everyone I know considers themselves to be an 'above average' driver.

[Kairos]

A lot of people probably just followed the "my ISA is yielding nothing" logic and, just as they were happy to liquidate their ISA if the money was more useful to them somewhere else, they are happy to liquidate their Rolex/PP/Crypto if it is going down in price doesn't mean they can't afford it just no longer see it useful. I sold some of my shares to move house (when SDLT was down) doesn't mean I couldn't afford either or could have taken a bigger mortgage instead.

As to "fussy who they sell to" we are all unlikley to be in the demographic they would choose with little/no insta following.

What does that mean please? What is 'insta following'?

I think there will be plenty of people worrying about affording to pay their bills with inflation carving into their earnings at one end and the bills going up (energy alone) exponentially. Those who fall on hard times, after a period of doing relatively well, are going to be the ones selling off their 'trinkets' to keep their cash flow going.

[theancientmariner]

What does that mean please? What is 'insta following'?

the number of people following someones Instagram account. In the modern era, product placement is a massive part of marketing and one of the key areas of product placement is on social media, Instagram primarily. Many companies sponsorship and endorsements now rely on a 'celebrity' wearing/flaunting/showing off a product on Instagram.

[MacDeath]

The various 'things' which some people decide to pay what is required to acquire, will not become more available whatever happens with inflation, cost of living etc., so essentially, their low production numbers will maintain prices above retail for a period longer than the expected recession imho.

The demand for luxury goods: fashion items, watches and cars, to name a few, have had their desirability increased tenfold thanks to the increase in social media coverage. The demand is also global, so hiccups in one country's economy will restrict any crash.

Yes, we will and are seeing premiums reduce, but there's always going to be a peak. I simply do not see the graph will show a massively sharp decline because Trevor had his heating on too high. Only when production increases will that become a 'thing' and that is not going to happen in the short term.

[theancientmariner]

There is a big difference between a wealthy person cutting back on buying new goods and someone having to make a distressed purchase because they have hit hard times.

Those who have to sell should never have bought it in the first place when they have to sell at the first hiccup. These are the purchases that will flood the market and drive prices down. It all depends on how many of these people there are compared to those whose just cut back on the buying but don't have to sell.

It just shows that companies such as Rolex and PP etc need to be fussy who they sell to in order to protect their brand image.

I often defend your comments but in this case it's fairly indefensible, borderline arrogant. How can you possibly know an individuals circumstances? I've known a lot of very wealthy people in my time who at times have said that they're asset rich but cash poor and would happily offload a £10-£20k Rolex to put some cash in the bank. After all they'll soon buy it, or another, again. It's far from just people who have spent their last penny on a fancy watch that will be offloading when the expenses go up.

Your last comment is astounding. How would you determine who to sell to if you were Rolex or PP? There's definitely a 'them' and 'us' tone to your comment which is interesting given the fact that to some people you would be one of 'them' and not one of 'us'. It's certainly a good reason not to buy a Rolex because it seems that some Rolex owners are devoid of any form of class.

[ryanb741]

How the heck would Rolex be 'fussy' when they sell the most mid-tier luxury watches in the market? And how are you aligning Rolex and Patek as if they are playing in the same market?

Rolex plays in the same market as people who buy Omegas and Panerais (to name a couple of brands). Basically accessible to pretty much anyone who plans to spend £5-£10k on a well made but not horologically refined watch (pricing based on SS models - I know PM watches from these brands cost multiples of this). Yes there may be a bit of a wait but this wait has nothing to do with Rolex - it is almost always an entirely commercial decision made by an AD based on spend history. That's it. They couldn't care less if you are a crack dealer as long as you buy stuff from them. That's the vetting process.

Patek is playing in an entirely different playground, much more exclusive due to far lower production and much higher price points plus horologically far more refined. They are in the same market as AP, VC, Breguet etc. Basically a small fraction of the luxury watch market. Again though the vetting process is based on spend history. Not character requirements.

The fact Vladimir Putin as well as multiple dictators globally have Pateks, Rolexes etc on their wrists should tell you that actually these brands aren't in the slightest bit fussy - your profile with them is based on how much money they've gotten out of you .

[Wallasey Runner]

Thought VP was a big Blancpain fan, always seems to be wearing one.