Reply With QuoteOne could consider a different angle, that there are now more people 'in the watch game' to quote the American YouTubers. Possibly they're looking to change their collection rather than cash out completely?
An interesting perspective in this Bloomberg article …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...olex-and-patek
Try here if the first link doesn’t show the full article:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-cryp...atek-1.1798743
Last edited by o u t a t i m e; 30th July 2022 at 10:22.
One could consider a different angle, that there are now more people 'in the watch game' to quote the American YouTubers. Possibly they're looking to change their collection rather than cash out completely?
"Watch game".
I abhor this whole situation.
Years ago it was a not unreasonably priced hobby with a lot more interest in the horological side.
Nowadays they are just another commodity to be cashed in with no interest in the watches themselves, just the money they stand for.
It used to be just watch fanciers on here, now diluted with commodity traders.
Sad.
Cheers,
Neil.
Originally Posted by Neil.C
I totally agree Neil. I just added "Cash Out", to "Residuals", "Futures" etc in my Joys of Watch Collecting Lexicon.
F.T.F.A.
100% right Neil.
Best Regards - Peter
I'd hate to be with you when you're on your own.
To me. Watches have just become another victim of hype.
Most things, once coveted by enthusiasts only, or those with so much surplus funds, they could easily justify the spend, have become the desire and possession of the masses.
I probably see more Rolexes in the wild than any other brand of watch, and most probably the vast majority of these folk are in it for the "flex". They sell for so much as everybody now wants one.
The same could be said for the vast amount of designer brands. Luxury is meaningless these days, as its become the natural state for the majority of the population. LV went years ago, Goyard is closely following. They used to be true "ooooh... That is beautiful, where did you get that etc. Etc to" oh look, another LV monogram handbag... " Being worn by someone wearing Yeezy shoes, a Canada Goose Jacket with a Ferragamo belt... Nothing is special :(
The (Rolex) brand is hugely devalued as every person is wearing the same thing. IMHO.
I'm out searching for something which is different, something you don't see every day. Sick of "cool a "Batman"! my brother has one of those, so does my aunt "!
This, is why I'm a huge fan of what Eddie does.
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Last edited by jamiej; 30th July 2022 at 18:04.
Wanted to start a separate thread but think it makes for good discussion here - where do everyone think the watch market is heading? Do we think market prices will fall back to RRP (or under) or whether they will “rebound” at a certain point?
You mean relationship brands signify for nothing now?!?
Last edited by Toshk; 30th July 2022 at 18:49.
I think falling back to RRP is unlikely in the world we currently live. I don't think the price will bounce back quite as high as it was though. Ultimately they simply are not worth the money and people realise that. . Hopefully the flippers who bought at the top of market will be scared out of the market by the drop, and then perhaps the new average price won't quite give the same insane margins that there once was.
If the recession truly hits, and the 0% credit regime ends, perhaps the amount of watches being bought, for keeps, may drop a little which may free up the supply, however, if the demand is there, the price will remain. I think the demand is driven by hype, and I can't really see that going anywhere, unless the trend changes. Watches are now advertised as a safe haven for investments, so the days of simply buying a watch because you like it... seemingly are long gone. The same has happened to art, cars, trainers, handbags... The list goes on.
Rolex need to control their distribution, and I think that would help. I understand that both Ferrari and Porsche are quite good at controlling this, and ensuring that the majority of their desirable cars are purchased by those who intend to keep them. Rolex have no handle on this it seems. I've no experience with upper tier watch brands (AP, PP etc.)
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Totally agree with you Neil.
When was the last time someone started a thread such as, "the difference of a vertical clutch and horizontal clutch in a chronograph"?
“ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG
The amount of handwringing and whinging seen here is amusing and nauseating at the same time. The constant refrain of
‘Nobody loves watches anymore’ is a bit disingenuous. Sure the hobby has been infiltrated by some who are in the hobby for financial reasons as well as there are some who are in the hobby as they like the thrill of owning ‘the next big thing or the big new thing’.But all such groups are dwarfed by the sheer size of the group that constantly moan and whine and pretend to be some kind of connoisseurs or the ‘real watch lovers’ while passing judgement on others.
I’m expecting the price to decline in most luxury watch brands. I expect Rolex secondary prices to fall, but I don’t expect them to get anywhere near rrp at this stage. The other mainstream brands are subliminally pegged to Rolex, so I expect they will fall too.
I’ve just bought a Rolex this week from SC, and I expect it’s value will go down, possibly significantly, at least in the near term. I love the watch, so I don’t care.
It would be helpful if all the financial talk left the hobby, and there was a bit more talk about horological developments.
Dave
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
From my own admittedly new perspective (circa 1 year ago), this hobby has many layers, and there is so much information to digest that it takes some time before the horological side becomes more important.
Traders uninterested in the item, rather profit potential, are nothing new and they're not going away. They're just waiting to ride the next bubble.
Agree Dave.
Bought a used AP this week because i regretted selling the same model years ago.
Put a deposit on another today and fully expect to lose money on both.
I suspect most people frequenting a watch forum are on there because they like watches. The exceptions will (should) be in the minority.
Craig
- - - Updated - - -
This isn’t an issue for the watch market - this is an issue in the watch market for a small number of brands (and moonswatches natch)
Totally agree with all the comments about buying watches as some sort of commodity investment. But that’s a lot less fun when prices are falling - and they are falling. Let’s face it anyone who bought a Rolex above RRP on Chrono24 in March is probably sitting on a 20% loss right now if their plan is to sell on. Quite a few of the ‘dealers’ who have sprung up selling 90% Rolex, PP and AP will be selling some watches right now at prices barely higher than they paid for them a few months ago. And they’ll be cautious about buying new stock or else lowballing on price.
I think it is possible that over 50% of Rolex models might go at close to RRP soon with a premium still remaining for the most popular. This implies that dealers will be paying below RRP to individual sellers and this should have a knock on effect for some demand at ADs - it won’t be a sure thing to flip at a profit anymore. Obviously I’m not talking about Daytonas or GMT models here. Just a guess but I can see it happening.
Other brand hot models seem to be really tumbling- the VC overseas exploded from nowhere but it might not be long before that’s available at not much more than RRP.
The whole cycle could spring up again soon of course but for now I think we’ve got another six months of price drops.
Last edited by IanK; 30th July 2022 at 20:32.
I dont think GMT's or Daytonas will be exempt from dropping.
Good news for the enthusiasts.Eventually.
Touché (I think?). All part of the psyche of the collective
“ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG
Who cares if the prices go up or down or stay the same. At every point in the game there will be watches one can afford and watches that one cannot afford. Going up or down a couple of notches here and there will not change anybody's life in any appreciable way.
If a watch costs more than 3 months wages then it is a commodity.
Looks like some are shedding staff in favour of retaining stock and keeping prices as high as they can for as long as they can presumably hoping the market shifts.
https://www.watchpro.com/chronext-la...-market-flips/
I'd expect steel daytonas to suffer more than a number of other watches as I can't think of anything that has become so overpriced in recent years off the back of being the "IT" watch for those who want to make a financial statement.
When China attacks Pelosi, you'll be able to get any watch below retail.
I know TZers love a good moan but surely if some dick has to sell his Rolex or PP quickly to offset his debts because he entered a market he knew nothing about in order to make a quick buck, then that's good news for us.
It's likely to result in a buying opportunities, so happy days.
Just keep your fingers crossed that a BTC becomes the same value as a sheet of toilet paper.
I expect genuine quality watches with good brand value will correct to the mean.
2nd tier Swiss watches which have had a run-up as people buy as 'second best' to Rolex etc. will have the biggest percentage drops and become hard to shift.
IMHO of course
A more optimistic view in this report. …
https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-and-p...he-bank/?amp=1
Does anyone actually wear watches anymore?
To think I buy them because I like them.
Last edited by o u t a t i m e; 3rd August 2022 at 15:34.
Do turkeys vote for Xmas?.....
Fan boys can do with some optimism right now
Used to be fun, educational and not abhorrently expensive. How times have changed since I first joined!
There's been notable uptick in the number of Rolex being offered in SC. I take that as peeps offloading watches before the correction turns into a slump.
Well they're forecasting a recession until the end of 2023, this could also be the reason for the sale of luxury assets if the seller is leveraged
FWIW mine have been to fund other Rolex but probably not a bad time to cash out or offload one or two relationship purchases
Sorry to be thick, but could someone please fill in the initials - I have no idea what they mean or refer to. I am just a humble chap who happens to like a nice watch and wears an auto for work and a slightly better one for special occassions. I enjoy looking at what other people have and cringe at some, but I am not a watch nerd who knows all the anacronyms.
Many thanks for being patient and helping me on my educational journey.
SC = Sales Corner here on the TZ-UK forum.
PP = Patek Philippe SA, a Swiss luxury watch and clock manufacturer, located in the Canton of Geneva and the Vallée de Joux. Wikipedia link.
BTC = Financial shorthand for bitcoin, the popular cryptocurrency.
VC = Vacheron Constantin SA, a Swiss luxury watch and clock manufacturer founded in 1755. Wikipedia link.
much obliged.
I didn't realise bitcoin was actually a thing, I thought it was joke.
I have never heard of Vacheron Constantin before either - I have led a sheltered life!
Plenty sitting around unsold and at what could be considered decent prices.
Slow down there. You may well still turn out to be correct.
Could not agree more and could never understand the hype surrounding Daytonas.
Could it be anything to do with the Vietnam War era, and a knock on effect across the range of Daytonas?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9Y4bmbh1KY
Down to mid 20’s.
If it gets to 23k for a white I'm consolidating
Anyone brave enough to admit they're out the money on a purchase? I'm down 4% on a NOMOS Tangente 38 based on Chrono 24 recent sales.
I’m sure I’m down
I bought a 14270 last autumn. Although the price was reasonable, I liked it so much I spent £1K on an RSC service. Calibre 3000, that’s vintage, and a £300 surcharge. I’ve just bought a perfect 14060M from SC, and although great value, compared to secondary market sellers, I’m not sure it will keep all its value in the short term. My Sinn 144 was new at a moderate discount from Neil@Chronomaster, so I better not flip that.
Fortunately I love the watches, am unlikely ever to sell, so I don’t care. Good job in here for the watches, not for money!
Dave
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I'm down on a fairly recent 2022 Explorer 2 grey purchase.
Couldn't give a FF. I bought it for me.
PP, AP and VC prices be less impacted?
No recession for luxury cars: Lamborghini has SOLD OUT of supercars until 2024, Ferrari hits profit record and Bentley's business booms
Not looking great...
What goes up must come down
I have a similar view. I’ve taken a fairly long break from watches of late as I started to lose interest when value became the only thing of relevance to many.
Blimey you must be ancient. I am 73 and ever since I can remember watches have been viewed as an investment. Michael Winner rambled on about it at great length back in the 1970's.
Scottish part-time dealer I work with offered to pass me one for £25k last week, but it was an early white ceramic Daytona that needed a spruce-up/polish.
Another 2-3k with a better example and that's got to be very tempting.
Have you tried on one?
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