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Thread: Time Capsule: 10 years from now?

  1. #1
    Craftsman Idontgram's Avatar
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    Time Capsule: 10 years from now?

    Iím sure this has been discussed before so apologies to those who find this tiresome but as a bit of fun:

    What do you think watch collecting and the industry will look like in 10 years?

    I predict the boom in interest will die down a bit and with that, contraction and elimination of many microbrands. People will move away from sports watches as fashions change and diversified brands will continue to do well. Grand Seiko and Omega in particular will push upmarket.

    Rolex will remain a well respected brand but the hype will get sucked out, secondary prices wonít be as strong (slow down, rather than burst) and ludicrous wait lists will be no more. Tudor will lose some of its market position as it struggles to find an identity outside of the black bay line, which due to tastes moving away from sports watches, will no longer be as highly lauded.

    Low-to-Middle-tier Swiss brands (Tissot, Oris, Longines, Breitling, TAG) will chug along

    Sinn, Damasko, Tutima, Hanhart, Doxa and other sports-orientated brands will shrink back and default to enthusiast-orientated brands.

    Sales of seiko prospex lines will stall and many will be discontinued; interest in astron and presage wonít be high enough to compensate. Seiko-Epson will consolidate and orient will become a de-facto entry level Seiko offering, like Lorus. Citizen will continue to struggle in defining its market in the west.

    Lastly, augmented reality glasses will replace smart watches as wearables.

    All of the above is based entirely on my imagination, of course. Curmudgeons are welcome to be curmudgeonly about the pointlessness of it all but Iíd be curious to hear how others see the future.

  2. #2
    Master
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    I will be dead by then so I am not that worried.

    It will, however, be interesting to read what the others think.

  3. #3
    Master raysablade's Avatar
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    During the pandemic I and, it seems from looking around, most of the people I work with started wearing a smart watch. I haven't stopped neither have they.

    The only watch that makes sense in that context is a mechanical three hander and then only for the occasions where a smartwatch isn't appropriate.

    I guess that a three hand automatic fit too but why bother with the extra bulk and complication when you are only going to wear it 3 or 4 hours at a time? As for dates complications, they really are a 20th century relic.

    This all makes the three hand mechanical the logical choice for many more people than it did ten years ago. Interesting to see if the market draws that conclusion too.

    I have my doubts and won't be selling my Rolex collection to fund one mechanical watch. That said I doubt that I will be wearing them.

  4. #4
    Master M1011's Avatar
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    Latest fashion trends will push us all to 33mm diamond encrusted watches made from recycled sea plastic.

    Mick's passing will lead to droves of people no longer having the mental fortitude to hold on to their warehouses full of Rolex investments, so the market will collapse and Rolex will have no choice but to launch a Swatch collab to bring back the illusion of hype.

    Everyone will realise AP make ugly watches.

    ADs no longer exist, instead we will buy our watches through our Amazon overlords.

    Omega will release a Speedmaster.

  5. #5
    Master
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    If you had asked me in 2012 the state of play in 2022 Iíd have got it completely wrong, so Iíve no idea on the value side.

    Rolex will be the king of the watch brands as itís the only brand that truly transcends its market sector and they pump so much money into sponsorship affiliation with global events like PGA, ?Wimbledon and F1. Anyone with money who doesnít know how to spend it buys Rolex, Ferrari, Armani etc and that wonít change.

    I do think there will be a much larger number of ďnosĒ condition watches which historically have been incredibly rare, but with so many safe queens around they wonít be so scarce.

  6. #6
    Craftsman Idontgram's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M1011 View Post
    Latest fashion trends will push us all to 33mm diamond encrusted watches made from recycled sea plastic.

    Mick's passing will lead to droves of people no longer having the mental fortitude to hold on to their warehouses full of Rolex investments, so the market will collapse and Rolex will have no choice but to launch a Swatch collab to bring back the illusion of hype.

    Everyone will realise AP make ugly watches.

    ADs no longer exist, instead we will buy our watches through our Amazon overlords.

    Omega will release a Speedmaster.
    Canít wait. Except for Mickís passing, that will be a tragedy and a loss to the forum and other corners of the world. Thatís three times this thread has mentioned his death in 5 posts though. Definitely wasnít what I thought would be the most seconded prediction.

  7. #7
    Only assertion I would make is that Mick will be alive and well and still be feeding us the pearls of wisdom.
    Other than that, I donít like to make any predictions. Particularly about the future.

  8. #8
    Craftsman
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    The inevitable coming clash of civilisations will bring down prices in the grey market as people focus on pestilence and famine

  9. #9
    In 10 years half of us will be priced out of high quality watches.

    The cheapest Omega will be like what a mid range Rolex used to cost ( before the prices went crazy )

  10. #10
    Watches will be popular in the metaverse as branded accessories to our digital avatars. No one will work in a physical office or commute, and in-person meetings outside your family will be rare, and necessitate clothes that resemble biohazard suits. Physical wristwatches will become as relevant and valuable as typewriters. A small hold-out of nonagenarians will keep arguing about them on retro bulletin board software until the end, or Mick sells a Rolex, whichever comes first.

  11. #11
    Master Christian's Avatar
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    Rolex will move their whole range into NFTs that you have to go onto a waiting list of indeterminable length before being given the privelage of buying one. The NFT jpegs will be displayed in Rolex AD windows where you can look at them and submit expressions of interest.

  12. #12
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    Gold Guns Gasoline
    And gold watches.

  13. #13
    Master Tetlee's Avatar
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    The MoonSwatch will finally be available online direct from SWATCH.

  14. #14
    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    One view on this is take a look at the industry 10years ago - not much change except the methods of marketing and sales.

    Prediction:

    1. all (main) brands will sell online and improvements in AR mean you can try on watches in such good VR no physical stores required.

    2. Rolex waiting lists extend to 15years
    "Time is an illusion, lunchtime doubly soĒ. HHGTTG

  15. #15
    Master Sinnlover's Avatar
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    Even modern watches with luminova dials will be radioactive due to nuclear fallout as the war in Ukraine escalates. The entire watch will then glow, not just the dial and hands.


    Too morbid?

  16. #16
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    I will be dead by then so I am not that worried.

    It will, however, be interesting to read what the others think.
    Mick, facing the inevitable, completes a volte face to sell all his rolex in order to bow out gracefully to spend 9 years partying on coke and hookers - leaving just enough to make a small financial contribution to Boris’s legal defence fund when he’s tried for being a Russian agent. Disclaimer ‘coke AND hookers’ may be an exaggeration.
    Last edited by Suds; 2nd May 2022 at 11:52.

  17. #17
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    I think you can print the entire Rolex 116500LN waiting list, bury it and come back in 10 years to see if you have moved up a couple of places?

  18. #18
    Journeyman
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    You could also take a copy of APs product catalogue and come back in 10 years time and see if there is any difference in their line-up or just the same re-iteration of the RO?

  19. #19
    Grand Master Griswold's Avatar
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    I suspect that even more people will have moved away from the wristwatch as we know it today as a prime keeper/display of time in 10 years time, and this trend will likely continue as years go beyond that. Prices will have to rise for companies to remain financially viable and smaller independents will need to offer something significantly different to the herd, (Rolex/Omega/TAG), to attract new customers. Smart Watch and Mobile Phone manufacturers will become the dominant players in the future.

    All of the above is, of course, dependant on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and how that progresses globally. In a worst case scenario, those few left in the world will be totally reliant on any mechanical, (clockwork), watch they may still have or may find.
    Best Regards - Peter

    I hate being bipolar, its brilliant.

  20. #20
    Watches have become items of jewellery for a lot of people now.

    I imagine in 10 years from now not much will have changed other than more people will wear smart watches Monday - Friday and the jewellery watch at the weekends, special occasions etc.

  21. #21
    Master earlofsodbury's Avatar
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    2032:


    • Britain - along with the rest of Europe - is now part of what's known as 'Novo Rossia'.
    • Rolexes are now made in Moscow out of melted-down T-72s, and cost 5 Roubles each.
    • R5 is more than a year's wages for starving Britons, none of whom care what time it is, nor remember how to tell it.
    • AP, PP and VC are now Chinese-owned sub-brands of Casio.
    • Seagulls and Vostoks are now the most expensive watches in the World.
    • Eddie's consciousness has been transferred into an android that looks like a 14YO Japanese schoolgirl with a huge pair of (Smiths)(Logos)
    • Smiths, Precista, &c. now sell-out 20 seconds before they actually go on sale; attempting to buy one causes your communications & surveillance chip to emit the sound of Eddie cackling manically.
    • All watch enthusiasts now have their own personal microbrand.
    • Mick Who?

  22. #22
    I worry about smart watches. I know several friends have relegated their prized Omegas and Breitlings to the drawer when the Apple Watch 7 took over. I have one and it takes a conscious effort to wear a mechanical because the smart watch does everything except look nice.

    For the time capsule I'd have:

    - JLC Reverso (underrated)
    - Panerai Luminor (maybe 10 years is long enough for Panerai to wake up)
    - White gold classic 38mm 3 hander from Moser, GO etc

    But long term I'll wear what I like. I might be the only guy in the nursing home with a Panerai on but at least I'll be able to see it!

  23. #23
    Journeyman
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    I think servicing mechanical watches is going to be an issue going forward and may end up impacting brands that donít have an in house service division. Good independent watchmakers who will take on new work seem scarce these days - will they become even rarer? At least if you own a Rolex, Seiko etc you can get them serviced when they need it.

  24. #24
    Grand Master
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    I think sports watches will be dominant because due to water resistance and climate change will have sunk half of the land mass. They are also robust enough to survive hunting humans and starting fires.
    Dress watches will be out because the majority of them will have been smashed beyond repair in the riots of 2031 and besides which everyone will still be wearing the joggers that they fled the house in when zombies first rose to attack.

  25. #25
    Master
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    In ten years time people will still be wearing wrist jewellery, as they have for the past 5000 years. They will continue to be more interested in it being expensive, sparkly, cool looking, rare and distinctive than anything else. However smart watches will improve by becoming smart bracelets which magnetically wrap around the wrist, meaning the screen is no longer annoyingly small. But the AirPods will be almost as useful, as Siri will be a fairly decent conversationalist.

    In 2027 Rolex finally make a 38mm Explorer and a 38mm Datejust with the classic case shape and no polished centre links. Hodinkee declare these to be the best watches ever created ("why has no one thought of this before?") and they'll still be almost impossible to obtain by 2032 due to insane levels of demand.

    Meanwhile Citizen invent an unscratchable watch with a movement that never needs servicing, which is regarded with suspicion due to appearing insufficiently luxurious. It will eventually become the default technology in cheap watches, while luxury watches continue to scratch and need servicing for several decades more.

    And finally, Chinese fakers finally realise that while making a perfect modern sub is quite hard work, making a perfect reproduction of a vintage watch with 60s / 70s tech is quite easy, so the market is flooded with near perfect fake VC222s and faux vintage Daytona Cosmographs.

  26. #26
    I think mechanical watches will slowly die off, the younger generations do not seem to have the same interest in watches, the market will be in smart watches.

  27. #27
    I think the market has already peaked (my impression is that prices have stabilised, softened or even fallen slightly). No bursting of the bubble but some depreciation if you bought at the top.

    Omega, who tend to innovate more than other manufactures, will do a smart watch (maybe in collaboration with Apple). And/or smart watches will be so small that they can be put on or in a normal watch strap, allowing you to wear your Sub or Speedy and still have a screen and internet on your wrist. Possibly a "reverso" case where the smart watch is on the back of your nice old fashioned timepiece; flip it over for emails, texts, and other digital distractions. (In 15-20 years' time tech won't just be wearable it will be implanted; eventually this will be mandatory).

    What I'd like to happen (but which won't) is that Rolex will give up getting bigger and uglier and will do completely faithful re-issues from their back catalogue -- 5513, 1016 etc -- maybe in limited editions with recreations of the old boxes and papers and so on.

  28. #28
    Master Papa Hotel's Avatar
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    Smartwatches will have died a death, replaced by bio-implants or something. The student hipster types who now wear cheap Casios will have grown up and now spend real money on watches as a way to disconnect from the virtual world. The brand of choice won't be Rolex though, they're old-man watches. They cut their teeth on Moonswatches and the top of the tree is occupied by Omega.

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by NikGixer750 View Post
    I think mechanical watches will slowly die off, the younger generations do not seem to have the same interest in watches, the market will be in smart watches.
    I am in agreement with your thoughts, there will still be the diehards but they will dwindle over time, we have seen the same thing happen with cameras, most young people now do not want a camera but are happy with a multi function camera phone, same will happen with smart watches as they improve and grow.

  30. #30
    Craftsman Idontgram's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevecross View Post
    I am in agreement with your thoughts, there will still be the diehards but they will dwindle over time, we have seen the same thing happen with cameras, most young people now do not want a camera but are happy with a multi function camera phone, same will happen with smart watches as they improve and grow.
    Nah, mechanical cameras are a niche interest, like watches. I think there will always be a market for them though it will probably wax and wane in popularity over time.

  31. #31
    Based on nothing more than what has been catching my eye for a while, I suspect the Casio lineup will only grow stronger.

  32. #32
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by NikGixer750 View Post
    I think mechanical watches will slowly die off, the younger generations do not seem to have the same interest in watches, the market will be in smart watches.
    Quote Originally Posted by stevecross View Post
    I am in agreement with your thoughts, there will still be the diehards but they will dwindle over time, we have seen the same thing happen with cameras, most young people now do not want a camera but are happy with a multi function camera phone, same will happen with smart watches as they improve and grow.
    The job of a luxury watch is about 1% to tell the time and 99% to look good doing it. Theyíre not marketed to young people, who only become interested when they can actually afford them. For their main function, they have no real competition, so itís hard to compare them directly with smart watches or cameras. Smart watches may be competing for wrist space, but thereís no sign of them ever looking better.

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