I’m sure this has been discussed before so apologies to those who find this tiresome but as a bit of fun:
What do you think watch collecting and the industry will look like in 10 years?
I predict the boom in interest will die down a bit and with that, contraction and elimination of many microbrands. People will move away from sports watches as fashions change and diversified brands will continue to do well. Grand Seiko and Omega in particular will push upmarket.
Rolex will remain a well respected brand but the hype will get sucked out, secondary prices won’t be as strong (slow down, rather than burst) and ludicrous wait lists will be no more. Tudor will lose some of its market position as it struggles to find an identity outside of the black bay line, which due to tastes moving away from sports watches, will no longer be as highly lauded.
Low-to-Middle-tier Swiss brands (Tissot, Oris, Longines, Breitling, TAG) will chug along
Sinn, Damasko, Tutima, Hanhart, Doxa and other sports-orientated brands will shrink back and default to enthusiast-orientated brands.
Sales of seiko prospex lines will stall and many will be discontinued; interest in astron and presage won’t be high enough to compensate. Seiko-Epson will consolidate and orient will become a de-facto entry level Seiko offering, like Lorus. Citizen will continue to struggle in defining its market in the west.
Lastly, augmented reality glasses will replace smart watches as wearables.
All of the above is based entirely on my imagination, of course. Curmudgeons are welcome to be curmudgeonly about the pointlessness of it all but I’d be curious to hear how others see the future.