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Thread: Rolex upping production for 2023?

  1. #1

    Rolex upping production for 2023?

    Have had an interesting conversation with my AD today. The person in question is head of Rolex for the store they work in which is the largest AD in the country.
    Apparently, they have been told that they expect to be selling back “out of the window” by next year. There were rumours of a second Rolex factory flying around last year. Maybe Rolex are finally going to turn the taps on and put an end to the current madness of not having a single Rolex to buy from an AD?
    Anyhow…don’t shoot the messenger please! Just repeating what I was told.

  2. #2
    Craftsman
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    Rolex fire sale coming to SC in the near future!

  3. #3
    It’s going to happen people just don’t want to believe it.

    Nobody wants to be the one holding the hot potato!

  4. #4
    Master beechcustom's Avatar
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    One of our own who is certainly 'in the know' said recently that Rolex supply is currently restricted due to problems with some of the new movements. One would imagine supply will greatly increase once that gets sorted.

  5. #5
    Journeyman
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    If true that would be great. I would love for people to be able to not deal with the current AD game anymore. I’ve purchased a couple of watches in the past couple of years and I’m not the highest spender by any means but it’s definitely frustrating to not even get an OP anymore without a long wait.

  6. #6
    Yeah, your AD told us a few months ago too

    https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...68#post5888568

  7. #7
    Master
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    Can you imagine the point at which people realise this is happening (if it happens). The market will be flooded with watches that have never been worn.

    Just be nice to not talk about it and for people to get the watches they want.

  8. #8
    Master
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    Very likely that production has been or will be increasing. Cannot see any increase that they could do, or would want to do, making a huge difference. What Rolex does totally works. Like it or not, it does so any change will be calculated. At the moment people are buying all their precious metal watches and date justs and all that they previously struggled to sell. There’s zero chance they will risk those sales by flooding the market with Pepsi’s, Daytonas and subs.

    Highly unlikely they will be selling out of the window anytime soon and if it does happen, will be down to the global economy than Rolex imo.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuno1 View Post
    Just be nice to not talk about it and for people to get the watches they want.
    90% of people won’t want them if and when they are eventually available. They will sit unloved in the AD’s windows like pre 2016!

  10. #10
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    90% of people won’t want them if and when they are eventually available. They will sit unloved in the AD’s windows like pre 2016!
    Exactly and we could all get back to some sort of normality and the constant Rolex investment BS can go away. We can only hope!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    90% of people won’t want them if and when they are eventually available. They will sit unloved in the AD’s windows like pre 2016!
    Agree 100%, people are buying to shift on at a profit, and if that margin disappears the demand will also disappear.
    I do hope so as I want to buy my retirement watch next year, and want to buy it new from an AD.

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  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Yeah, your AD told us a few months ago too

    https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...68#post5888568
    Your point is? I’m just telling fellow forum members what I was told today.

  13. #13
    Grand Master
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    My mates Grans bingo partner know a bloke who was SAS who does security for the bloke who cleans the windows at St James and he said ……..

    Come on its Rolex there is no rumour worthy
    RIAC

  14. #14
    Interesting video from a pre owned dealer “Colebys” if anyones on Instagram and wants to know how the trade is at the moment. Seems a lot of caution being shown…
    https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ccp83RK...d=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

  15. #15
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    Rolex onto a winner with limited supply. It's maybe gone a little further than they planned with not even enough stock for display in most ADs & but I don't believe they will ramp up supply to such an extent that all models will be freely available. Perhaps where now a Pepsi or Daytona come once per year, it might instead be 3-4 of that watch per year - still meaning a multi-year wait for most who want one, at best.

    Even in a complete global financial crisis (pretty sure that's what we've just been through and continue to go through) there would not necessarily be a reason to increase supply - in fact the only people who could afford Rolex in that scenario would be the super-wealthy, so would make sense to double-down on the exclusivity strategy from that perspective.



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  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    My mates Grans bingo partner know a bloke who was SAS who does security for the bloke who cleans the windows at St James and he said ……..

    Come on its Rolex there is no rumour worthy
    Bit different to an AD pestering the Rolex rep for models to sell to a wanting public and being told about reasons for lack of stock/impending deliveries etc…

  17. #17
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti View Post
    Interesting video from a pre owned dealer “Colebys” if anyones on Instagram and wants to know how the trade is at the moment. Seems a lot of caution being shown…
    https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ccp83RK...d=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
    I can’t him seriously wearing those specs.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Very likely that production has been or will be increasing. Cannot see any increase that they could do, or would want to do, making a huge difference. What Rolex does totally works. Like it or not, it does so any change will be calculated. At the moment people are buying all their precious metal watches and date justs and all that they previously struggled to sell. There’s zero chance they will risk those sales by flooding the market with Pepsi’s, Daytonas and subs.

    Highly unlikely they will be selling out of the window anytime soon and if it does happen, will be down to the global economy than Rolex imo.
    I'd agree they would want a soft landing. Given how overheated things are though I can't imagine them managing a soft landing. Anything more then a very slight softening just seems likely to open the flood gates i reckon.

  19. #19
    Craftsman namzo's Avatar
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    Rolex upping production for 2023?

    If only it was just the spectacles.

  20. #20
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    There are a lot of brands though where the watches are selling out and you have to go via greys. Rolex, AP, the VC Overseas. Even the GP Laureatos are fetching over RRP at greys. Surely they can't all have production issues?

  21. #21

    Rolex upping production for 2023?

    In the year 1636, single tulip bulbs were worth the equivalent of £100k in todays money.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    In the year 1636, single tulip bulbs were worth the equivalent of £100k in todays money.
    Gordon Gekko was a savvy Cartier man :).

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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    In the year 1636, single tulip bulbs were worth the equivalent of £100k in todays money.




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  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norbert View Post
    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
    Excellent !


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  25. #25
    Master
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    Not sure about Rolex but went to a Tudor AD last week who said the Tudor new factory will be ready by H2 2022.

    Is there really going to be a new Rolex and Tudor factory this year?

    Sorry I know this is another…my AD said.

  26. #26
    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robert75 View Post
    When did Rolex turn the taps off?

    Is it Rolex fault there are too many people demanding something they cant have?
    March 1st 2018
    “ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG

  27. #27
    Master Christian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rico View Post
    I can’t him seriously wearing those specs.
    OK, some of the stuff he says is common sense but some is total twaddle coming from a dealer. I honestly don’t see watches as a good long term investment. They aren’t like houses. We’ve been in a bit of a bubble since 2018 for sports Rolex. Not a chance this will last. The RRP of a ND sub is £7150, never forget that.
    Last edited by Christian; 22nd April 2022 at 23:13.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    It’s going to happen people just don’t want to believe it.

    Nobody wants to be the one holding the hot potato!
    I believe they need to get back to datejusts in windows.

    If people believe they’ll be buying steel subs and GMT’s out the windows, then that won’t happen.

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Nairn1980 View Post
    If people believe they’ll be buying steel subs and GMT’s out the windows, then that won’t happen.
    How can you be so sure?

    They were all in the window (except the Daytona) until late 2016 and often offered with a discount.

    The truth is no one actually knows but there are already shifts in the market with prices levelling off and softening.

  30. #30
    Grand Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nairn1980 View Post
    I believe they need to get back to datejusts in windows.

    If people believe they’ll be buying steel subs and GMT’s out the windows, then that won’t happen.
    I agree - it’s a sad day when you can’t even see a DJ

  31. #31
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    I live in hope. It’s pathetic and very much a first world problem, but it’s the truth unfortunately.


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  32. #32
    Grand Master
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    Even if they doubled production it still wouldn’t dent the demand as there’s 100+ people after 1 watch at least so even a 30% uplift in production, which is huge for them, wont make much difference.
    RIAC

  33. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Even if they doubled production it still wouldn’t dent the demand as there’s 100+ people after 1 watch at least so even a 30% uplift in production, which is huge for them, wont make much difference.
    Demand would be massively affected if these watches were not selling for over retail. As a guess 90% of those 100+ people would not even consider buying one.

  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Even if they doubled production it still wouldn’t dent the demand as there’s 100+ people after 1 watch at least so even a 30% uplift in production, which is huge for them, wont make much difference.
    The only reason there are so many people after them is because they see them as investments not watches.

    If they become readily available then the second hand market prices will drop. Even a slight drop will cause panic selling by these same “investors” and the market will crash.
    (For new watches, not vintage)
    Imo it all hinges on whether they actually do become readily available at AD’s

    It’ll make no difference to people who like and collect watches, we’ll just buy and wear them as normal. Might get my iced Platona sooner.
    Last edited by watchlovr; 23rd April 2022 at 08:06.

  35. #35
    Grand Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    Demand would be massively affected if these watches were not selling for over retail. As a guess 90% of those 100+ people would not even consider buying one.
    If they were just £500 over retail we would, they have always grown in value since the 1950’s

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by watchlovr View Post
    Might get my iced Platona sooner.
    Be quick then as next year……….Farewell
    RIAC

  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    If they were just £500 over retail we would, they have always grown in value since the 1950’s
    Yes with inflation.

    Until a few years ago the moment you walked out an AD your watch was worth around 10-20% less than you had paid at retail.

    I purchased a few months old Submariner ND from Blowers for £4.6k in December 2016, retail at the time was £5000.

    I don’t know what margins they work on but I assume as a minimum it must be 10% if not more, meaning that watch was purchased from the original owner by them for around £4k which is 20% less than retail at the time.
    Last edited by boring_sandwich; 23rd April 2022 at 09:05.

  37. #37
    Master Christian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by watchlovr View Post
    The only reason there are so many people after them is because they see them as investments not watches.
    Agree with this. The moment there is any doubt that people won’t be able to get back what they spent on a Rolex, demand will drop significantly and that will happen when you can buy one at RRP. I don’t think it’s the super-rich with money to burn that is causing the demand.

    Here is an example of the cause of the issues at the moment:

    https://www.ft.com/content/a9a34f94-...Rj_-xBMSWmadU8

    The investment element is global.
    Last edited by Christian; 23rd April 2022 at 08:47.

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    Yes with inflation.

    Until a few years ago the moment you walked out an AD your watch was worth around 10-20% less than you had paid at retail.

    I purchased a few months old Submariner ND from Blowers for £4.6k in December 2016, retail at the time was £5000.

    I don’t know what margins they work on but I assume as a minimum it must be 10% if not more, meaning that watch was purchased from the original owner by them for a around £4k which is 20% less than retail at the time.
    Yes true probably closer to 20% then but had that same owner waited a year or so he would have got £5k then £5.5 etc etc, flipping early was always gonna take a hit previously but in general after 3 years you’d get all your money back
    RIAC

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by robert75 View Post
    Is it not just a simple case of the sheep following what they think is the new “hot item”. Nothing to do with supply factories or anything else. Just look at the moon swatch.

    Once upon a time people actually tied not to be sheep and go against the grain these days it seems the complete opposite.
    I think you have hit the nail on the head, though I think people have always been like sheep, those who didn't follow the flock have always been the exception and I don't think that has ever been any different nor will that change over time.

  40. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Yes true probably closer to 20% then but had that same owner waited a year or so he would have got £5k then £5.5 etc etc, flipping early was always gonna take a hit previously but in general after 3 years you’d get all your money back
    Fair point.

    I just think a huge percentage of people on the list at AD’s are not really in a position to own the watches or even have an Interest in watches and solely register interest to purchase them to return a quick profit.

    If there is even a slight increase in production or availability at AD’s and the speculators realise there is very little profit in flipping then the market will suffer. I’m am not suggesting prices will fall below retail but I think there will be a correction on the grey market.

  41. #41
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    I really do hope it is true to stop those people buying them just to turn a huge profit.
    My brother in law bought a grey market Datejust from a local dealer a couple of weeks ago for £2K over list and he won't even bring it over for me to see, straight in the safe and a week later the dealer offered him +£1K to buy it back.
    The demand will definitely drop if the large number of scalpers wouldn't get an instant profit.
    I think there are a large number of people with cash businesses like my BIL using them to launder cash to evade tax.

  42. #42
    Master Christian's Avatar
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    I have no idea whether the data that goes into these charts are accurate, but the market seems to have peaked at the moment….

    https://watchcharts.com/

    For someone who has always been obsessed with watches since the 1980s, pretty sad these charts even exist really…when I look back twelve years, it does feel like “investors”, dealers and scalpers have infiltrated and stolen a hobby to a certain extent just to pursue cash.

  43. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    I have no idea whether the data that goes into these charts are accurate, but the market seems to have peaked at the moment….

    https://watchcharts.com/

    For someone who has always been obsessed with watches since the 1980s, pretty sad these charts even exist really…when I look back twelve years, it does feel like “investors”, dealers and scalpers have infiltrated and stolen a hobby to a certain extent just to pursue cash.
    When I first entered the world of watch forums the vast majority of discussions were micro brands, vintage watches and rare or unusual stuff. There were a lot of very knowledgeable people on Chinese, Russian and vintage watches and there were lots of really good discussions. Now its just endless watch in the window, how much can I make, instagram says this. It does seem the dealers have taken over the forums and are just using them as another platform to hype whatever they are selling.

  44. #44
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    I think we will see a drop in grey/used prices of up to 20% from here and then a levelling off. This will be due to continued negative macro economic effects in the world and potentially some increase in supply from Rolex. There is also only so far grey/used prices can spike in a short period before people say no thank you.

    However, I believe the days of sports Rolex and other popular models being available at or below RRP in the secondary are gone. That’s too big a crash from here.

    Dealers will do everything to try to maintain prices as best they can and I don’t buy the idea that quite so much of the wait list is driven solely by profit. Yes, it’s a big factor, but I would be amazed if Rolex could get anywhere near meeting the genuine buyers’ demand so as to completely crash the grey/used market.

    Even if they theoretically could, it’s clear that marketing strategies have changed from 5+ years ago. Wait lists, the building of exclusivity and the idea something is hard to get goes a long way to building a luxury brand and it is what the big manufacturers in the market will continue to aspire to imho.

    There’s also a psychological change now for many that it’s ok to pay over retail for some watches. Yes the amount over retail may well drop, but I think the market will sustain something in the middle of where we are now and where we used to be.

    The market has changed and we need to accept it, but it must surely retrench back to something slightly more palatable.

  45. #45
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeePee View Post
    I think there are a large number of people with cash businesses like my BIL using them to launder cash to evade tax.
    If you know dealers who take large amounts of cash without asking questions then they may be breaking the law.

    Businesses with which I am very familiar often carry this explicit caveat on individual listings of watches over about £7,000 :

    "We cannot accept cash for items of such high value. Please ask for one of our watch specialists if you would like to view the watch in our private / secure sales facility or to enquire about acceptable payment methods."

    I fear that many watch dealers, especially the tax-invisible tattooed Insta-clowns, aren't so fussy - by which I mean operating within the law.
    Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 23rd April 2022 at 10:19.

  46. #46
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    Demand would be massively affected if these watches were not selling for over retail. As a guess 90% of those 100+ people would not even consider buying one.
    Would that be the same for these Moonswatch things?

  47. #47
    Maybe the bottom will fall out of the market and I can finally get a non ceramic Daytona at a reasonable used price…not gonna hold my breath though.

    Still kicking myself I didn’t buy the zenith Daytona freshly serviced by Rolex from Austin Kaye a few years ago…£6750…brings a tear to my eye!

  48. #48
    Craftsman WHL1882's Avatar
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    I think a Rolex price correction/plateau for current or ‘ in-production’ models is on the way but anything more recently discontinued (particularly the popular SS watches; Hulk, all black GMT, BLNR etc) will continue to rise.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Berty234 View Post

    Dealers will do everything to try to maintain prices as best they can and.
    They wont. The margin is still the margin. Its simple you buy a watch for 30k you make a few quid. You buy it for £10k. You make a few quid. The only difference being the stock moves quicker when its cheaper.

    Grey dealers dont set prices they buy and x and sell at Y it's irrelevant where x is
    RIAC

  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by WHL1882 View Post
    I think a Rolex price correction/plateau for current or ‘ in-production’ models is on the way but anything more recently discontinued (particularly the popular SS watches; Hulk, all black GMT, BLNR etc) will continue to rise.
    5 digit is at its plateau. 6 digit discontinued has a bit of room and current models well who knows but it aint gojng down
    RIAC

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