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Thread: Will the Rolex madness end ?

  1. #51
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    Check your swearing in WT please?

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    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    The holy trinity for most people is PP, AP, and Rolex. VC is the beneficiary of a rising tide IMO. Superb watchmaker, but desirability beats skill these days.

    Next to PP and AP (rightly or wrongly) Rolex looks very cheap. If it is or not doesn't matter.
    I thought VC have long been in the trinity. Rolex is not renouned for its finess.
    “ Ford... you're turning into a penguin. Stop it.” HHGTTG

  3. #53
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MartynJC (UK) View Post
    I thought VC have long been in the trinity. Rolex is not renouned for its finess.
    PP, AP, VC, definitely make up the holy trinity of watchmaking, no question, but when it comes to demand and what a lot of people are looking to own I think it's PP, AP, Rolex.

  4. #54
    Grand Master snowman's Avatar
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    Never started with me, I once thought I'd like a Daytona, but then I saw one and I do quite like the Milgaus, but not enough to play the silly games (or spend the kind of money) required to get one. (For me the Submariner, undoubted classic, though it is, is so widely copied that it somehow doesn't seem special any more - I always think it's a bit like the AC Cobra of watches).

    It baffles me that people don't just buy something else if they can't buy immediately at RRP, but there you go, people go similarly crazy over lots of things in short supply.

    FOMO, I guess.

    M
    Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Each day there are 100 new people calling the top of the market and then new highs are set.

    They'll be right one day and when they are they'll forget the 9,000 times they're on record getting it wrong.
    This ^^^ is very true, which reminds me, where are the Rolex price increase threads? We used to have them regularly and you call it for the 1st of every month and eventually you’re right


    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    The holy trinity for most people is PP, AP, and Rolex. VC is the beneficiary of a rising tide IMO. Superb watchmaker, but desirability beats skill these days.

    Next to PP and AP (rightly or wrongly) Rolex looks very cheap. If it is or not doesn't matter.
    You are that bark and jack fella and I claim my £5 :-) He said that on his you tube channel the other day.

  6. #56
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    This ^^^ is very true, which reminds me, where are the Rolex price increase threads? We used to have them regularly and you call it for the 1st of every month and eventually you’re right




    You are that bark and jack fella and I claim my £5 :-) He said that on his you tube channel the other day.
    I'll have to catch up with his channel. Some busy evenings lately and I've slacked.

    I'm mates with Adrian and worked with him for a few years. Have some great pics of him on his stag

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Check your swearing in WT please?
    Apologies

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I'll have to catch up with his channel. Some busy evenings lately and I've slacked.

    I'm mates with Adrian and worked with him for a few years. Have some great pics of him on his stag
    He’d probably appreciate you posting those pictures on here and all the other watch forums :-)

    Joking aside, I like him. He’s very watchable and his last video was him admitting calling the Rolex ‘bubble about to burst’ was wrong a couple of years back, which is refreshing to hear someone admit it. Very relevant to this thread really so worth a watch.

    Quote Originally Posted by MartynJC (UK) View Post
    I thought VC have long been in the trinity. Rolex is not renouned for its finess.
    PP, AP & VC are the holy trinity but as wileeeey says it’s all PP, AP and Rolex that everyone talks about and have been climbing wildly in price.

    Rolex clearly have their knockers but wow what a business model.

  9. #59
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    Rob from the rich, give to the citizens of Geneva and homeless animals. That is the official business model as I understand it.

    For interest, I’ll take JLC, high end Seiko or a plethora of vintage first.
    Last edited by M4tt; 27th October 2021 at 17:44.

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    If you want to get chibbed.
    Or that other central-belt classic: "A scheme bootin................"

  11. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    I’ve got a 1998 16610 that’s being left to my lad, I bought it partly with cash left to me by my Mum when she passed away in May this year. For his sake, I hope the values just keep on climbing and If my son decided he wants to cash it in when I’ve gone for something, well good luck to him. I certainly wouldn’t be narcissistic enough to demand he keeps it and passes it down…….
    My watches go to my son. And I agree with you - when I pass on a thing to another person it becomes theirs - they can do what they want with it. My watches aren't the crown jewels!

    When Im busy feeding the worms it matters not one way or the other what happens to the daft thing I counted down to the moment with!

  12. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by M4tt View Post
    Rob from the rich, give to the citizens of Geneva and homeless animals. That is the official business model as I understand it.

    For interest, I’ll take JLC, high end Seiko or a plethora of vintage first.
    Thanks for your views but that is not what the thread is about.
    As far as OP is concerned, those who say it will end will be proven right. But the finer point is when/ no one knows. Could be a year , ten years or a 100 years.

  13. #63
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    The way to tell if the Rolex bubble is over is this. Here is £10k. You can buy any watch you want with it and anything will be available at RRP. 1 watch only.

    What do you buy?

    I suspect this will prove the Rolex bubble ain't popping any day soon

  14. #64
    Master RJM25R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joe narvey View Post
    Choose life
    Ha ha ha!!!!

  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Thanks for your views but that is not what the thread is about.
    As far as OP is concerned, those who say it will end will be proven right. But the finer point is when/ no one knows. Could be a year , ten years or a 100 years.
    Oh? Sorry. Tulips. Tulip mania. Never ends well. The true believers and late adopters always take a bath.

    Better?

  16. #66
    Master blackal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umbongo View Post
    My watches go to my son. And I agree with you - when I pass on a thing to another person it becomes theirs - they can do what they want with it. My watches aren't the crown jewels!

    When Im busy feeding the worms it matters not one way or the other what happens to the daft thing I counted down to the moment with!
    yup - up to him how he views them. At worst - they will be a simple tax-free payment to him, at best - something he cherishes.

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The way to tell if the Rolex bubble is over is this. Here is £10k. You can buy any watch you want with it and anything will be available at RRP. 1 watch only.

    What do you buy?

    I suspect this will prove the Rolex bubble ain't popping any day soon
    That’s an easy one:

    First choice, Omega Snoopy 3

    Second choice, G.O. SeaQ

    Very distant Third choice, Rolex Pepsi on Jubilee.

  18. #68
    Grand Master Seamaster73's Avatar
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    I’d buy a Reverso Classic and stick £5K in my ISA. Indeed, I’ve been seriously considering flogging my 16610 and doing exactly that. Rolex has long since jumped the shark as far as I am concerned. I wouldn’t entertain another in any set of circumstances.

  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    I’d buy a Reverso Classic and stick £5K in my ISA. Indeed, I’ve been seriously considering flogging my 16610 and doing exactly that. Rolex has long since jumped the shark as far as I am concerned. I wouldn’t entertain another in any set of circumstances.

    Great choice. I have a simple Reverso GT but it would otherwise have been my top pick. ‘Style never goes out of fashion’.

  20. #70
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    It’s ironic if you ask me about this scenario that we are in , as about 10 years ago the idea of a man who came into a senior position at Rolex was to do away with the Grey Dealers so fast forward and yes if you want a Rolex Sports watch then it’s pretty simple wait forever or go to that Grey Dealer and pay the money for one that’s been flipped from the AD at xxx times list !!

    Who knows what the future holds though and will we ever see them in the windows like we used to ?
    Highly doubtful !!

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    I’d buy a Reverso Classic and stick £5K in my ISA. Indeed, I’ve been seriously considering flogging my 16610 and doing exactly that. Rolex has long since jumped the shark as far as I am concerned. I wouldn’t entertain another in any set of circumstances.
    I used to be friends with a jeweller (now retired) and he often mentioned that JLC was a "delicate" watch and that a Rolex could take a good bashing. Also I had to pay £1200 to replace a winding knob and the attached shaft that fell out. That did include a service but even so.

    Take a look at a Rolex Cellini Prince, they go for much less than a 16610.

  22. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    I used to be friends with a jeweller (now retired) and he often mentioned that JLC was a "delicate" watch and that a Rolex could take a good bashing. Also I had to pay £1200 to replace a winding knob and the attached shaft that fell out. That did include a service but even so.
    I dont think thats a fair shout. Yes, rolex make very robust watches - I have heard and read the word "tractor engine" used on several occasions to describe their movements - but JLC make so many movements - more than pretty much anyone - and, yes, some are delicate, but I dare say some are very much not.

    Lets not forget that the Reverso, it is said, was originally made to be a watch that could survive a polo match.

    Aesthetically, I think that, when it comes to "sports" watch design, rolex are in their element, but JLC tie them in knots when it comes to dressier watch design. Its a personal thing, but I dont think rolex "gets it" the same way...

  23. #73
    Grand Master Seamaster73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    I used to be friends with a jeweller (now retired) and he often mentioned that JLC was a "delicate" watch and that a Rolex could take a good bashing. Also I had to pay £1200 to replace a winding knob and the attached shaft that fell out. That did include a service but even so. Take a look at a Rolex Cellini Prince, they go for much less than a 16610.
    Cellini, LOL.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    Cellini, LOL.
    Do a google on Cellini Prince.

  25. #75
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    I was called at the weekend by my local AD who said that the OP41 was now in the realms of the Daytona in terms of scarcity.
    Earlier this year I was told it would be 6-18 months, now it's at 10years plus and basically I have to move to a black DJ or be deleted from the list.
    They expect to receive 1 of each OP41 dial colour each year.

  26. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmitch View Post
    I was called at the weekend by my local AD who said that the OP41 was now in the realms of the Daytona in terms of scarcity.
    Earlier this year I was told it would be 6-18 months, now it's at 10years plus and basically I have to move to a black DJ or be deleted from the list.
    They expect to receive 1 of each OP41 dial colour each year.
    If true how can that be a viable business for the AD give the cost of staff, shop fit and floor area rent?

  27. #77
    Grand Master markrlondon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    If true how can that be a viable business for the AD give the cost of staff, shop fit and floor area rent?
    It seems to me that, even if true, it doesn't mean they are really getting fewer of them. It just means that demand has gone up versus supply.

    In other words, ADs are not selling any fewer watches.

    It sounds like black DJs are still moving slowly though...

  28. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Vanguard View Post
    Rolex will never produce enough watches to meet demand, nothing will change unless future generations have no interest in mechanical watches
    Young people seem even more materialistic than previous generations to me. Even allowing for the cheap credit situation it amazes me how a new or near new car seems to be a necessity now for a very young adult. I expect that enough of the younger generations will want a Rolex in the future to keep up demand.

    Personally I don't see there being a major price correction unless wearable tech like smart watches becomes a necessity like owning a mobile phone. For that happen they'd have to develop kind of essential functionality but I'm not sure what that would be.

    More likely are further price increases but at a diminishing rate or maybe a smallish correction in used prices and plateaued new prices if there is a financial crash and / or an end to cheap credit.

    Have Rolex new or used prices ever fallen since the Quartz crisis?

  29. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    If true how can that be a viable business for the AD give the cost of staff, shop fit and floor area rent?
    They can sell every single Rolex they get without offering discounts. And that’s before the money they make selling other stuff to people hoping to get a Rolex one day. I wouldn’t worry about the viability!

  30. #80
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    Saw a video today that said Rolex are bringing a new, 2nd factory online in 2 years.

    So maybe the answer is about 2.5 years?

    Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

  31. #81
    Grand Master markrlondon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Taff View Post
    Saw a video today that said Rolex are bringing a new, 2nd factory online in 2 years.

    So maybe the answer is about 2.5 years?
    Ah, but prices will have to go up again to pay for the new factory. ;-)

  32. #82
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    I think they could double their prices and it wouldn't affect sales tbh.

    Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

  33. #83
    Grand Master markrlondon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Taff View Post
    I think they could double their prices and it wouldn't affect sales tbh.
    Sadly, yes.

  34. #84
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    Sorry Mick, but it's a winding 'crown', not 'knob'.
    Cheers.

  35. #85

    Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Taff View Post
    Saw a video today that said Rolex are bringing a new, 2nd factory online in 2 years.

    So maybe the answer is about 2.5 years?

    Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

    Source please?

  36. #86
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    https://youtu.be/LlG5605eiOM

    21:20 talks about the new manufacturing site.

    Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

  37. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    I’ve got a 1998 16610 that’s being left to my lad, I bought it partly with cash left to me by my Mum when she passed away in May this year. For his sake, I hope the values just keep on climbing and If my son decided he wants to cash it in when I’ve gone for something, well good luck to him. I certainly wouldn’t be narcissistic enough to demand he keeps it and passes it down…….
    Well said that man , in my opinion.

    Part of me wishes Rolex act like the mass producer they actually are and just clear all the lists in a few months. That would destroy all this silliness with premium over retail it’s absurd it really is.


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  38. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redwolf View Post
    Well said that man , in my opinion.

    Part of me wishes Rolex act like the mass producer they actually are and just clear all the lists in a few months. That would destroy all this silliness with premium over retail it’s absurd it really is.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    You have to remember that the watch buying public are split down the middle over this. One half want the madness to end because they don't like the prices and restrictions whilst the other half want it to get madder. They are the ones with the cash to splash, so it's obvious how Rolex will deal the cards.

  39. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    You have to remember that the watch buying public are split down the middle over this. One half want the madness to end because they don't like the prices and restrictions whilst the other half want it to get madder. They are the ones with the cash to splash, so it's obvious how Rolex will deal the cards.
    You’re not wrong Mick :-)

  40. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redwolf View Post
    Well said that man , in my opinion.

    Part of me wishes Rolex act like the mass producer they actually are and just clear all the lists in a few months. That would destroy all this silliness with premium over retail it’s absurd it really is.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Perhaps Rolex thinks the situation will normalise by itself but that’s not going to happen anytime soon. The AD’s seem like they’re under siege. Yes they may have all this financial years allocation sold before the UPS van arrives. Surely the AD’s must grit their teeth everyday with all the aggravation. The crown has yet to say how they’re going to address it. The yahoo finance reply Rolex made was smoke and mirrors.

  41. #91
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    If true how can that be a viable business for the AD give the cost of staff, shop fit and floor area rent?
    Most Rolex ADs sell other watch brands as well and many tend to be 'high end' jewellers as well.

    My nearest AD sell Longines, Rado, Seiko, Raymond Weil, Tag, Tudor and Wolf as well as jewellery and diamonds so they don't rely solely on Rolex.
    Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.

  42. #92
    What goes up usually goes down.
    Remember it’s only a few years ago since you could go into an AD and pick up almost any Rolex model except the Daytona which is a law unto itself!
    In short, buy the watch you love not the one you think will appreciate the most.


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  43. #93
    Craftsman wits's Avatar
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    All this does make me laugh.
    If you like them buy one,either now from a grey at a premium or at rrp from an AD when they let you.

    Some utter tom hollocks spouted from the haters as usual.



    Sent from my SM-P610 using Tapatalk

  44. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Most Rolex ADs sell other watch brands as well and many tend to be 'high end' jewellers as well.

    My nearest AD sell Longines, Rado, Seiko, Raymond Weil, Tag, Tudor and Wolf as well as jewellery and diamonds so they don't rely solely on Rolex.
    Yes but they don’t become Rolex ADs to subsidise their Rolex operation by other brands.
    ADs bend over backwards to keep Rolex dealership because it is profitable- empty shelves or not.
    As for the OP’s questions as long as Rolex occupies so much rent free space in the minds of the people who claim they don’t want or are over Rolex, the madness is not ending anytime soon.
    It will one day though. Not because of the way Rolex does it’s business but that is nature of life.

  45. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Yes but they don’t become Rolex ADs to subsidise their Rolex operation by other brands.
    ADs bend over backwards to keep Rolex dealership because it is profitable- empty shelves or not.
    As for the OP’s questions as long as Rolex occupies so much rent free space in the minds of the people who claim they don’t want or are over Rolex, the madness is not ending anytime soon.
    It will one day though. Not because of the way Rolex does it’s business but that is nature of life.
    The madness will end when fashions change. At some point the intsta faithful will view a Rolex as an ugly, crass, archaic bauble and then no one will want them …

  46. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The madness will end when fashions change. At some point the intsta faithful will view a Rolex as an ugly, crass, archaic bauble and then no one will want them …
    One daaaay, over a rainbow, wi a piiiiie

  47. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Yes but they don’t become Rolex ADs to subsidise their Rolex operation by other brands.
    ADs bend over backwards to keep Rolex dealership because it is profitable- empty shelves or not.
    As for the OP’s questions as long as Rolex occupies so much rent free space in the minds of the people who claim they don’t want or are over Rolex, the madness is not ending anytime soon.
    It will one day though. Not because of the way Rolex does it’s business but that is nature of life.
    The only people who are concerned about values crashing are those who shouldn't have bought them in the first place. Buying expensive fripperies is all well and good but you need to be the sort of person who can buy it without batting an eyelid and walk out of the shop intending never to sell it.

    If your finances are so tight that you need to borrow money to buy a frippery or you may need to sell at a later date then quite frankly you would be better off collecting something like stamps or Lego.

    Rolex knows it is better off without this type of customer which vindicates their current MO.

  48. #98
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    I usually ignore the Rolex supply threads unless really bored, but out of interest has anyone started the most difficult to acquire league table ?

    1. Daytona SS white face
    2. Daytona SS black face
    3. Pepsi
    4. Skydweller Blue
    5. SD DS JC
    6. Submariner
    7. Datejust blue

    So, what have I missed and how would you reorder this list?

    Where does the Yachtmaster 42 fit?

  49. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by joe narvey View Post
    I usually ignore the Rolex supply threads unless really bored, but out of interest has anyone started the most difficult to acquire league table ?

    1. Daytona SS white face
    2. Daytona SS black face
    3. Pepsi
    4. Skydweller Blue
    5. SD DS JC
    6. Submariner
    7. Datejust blue

    So, what have I missed and how would you reorder this list?

    Where does the Yachtmaster 42 fit?
    Tiffany OP in 41 also.


    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

  50. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by McBeardy View Post
    Tiffany OP in 41 also.


    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
    Oh yes, A good example of a watch I didn’t like when I first saw it but now tempted.

    Where would you rank it ?

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