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Thread: Will the Rolex madness end ?

  1. #1
    Craftsman
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    Will the Rolex madness end ?

    With my Sea Master now sold I'm looking for its replacement, narrowed it down to one of 3 :
    Submariner 126610LV
    GMT Master 126710BLNR
    Submariner 126613LB
    All these can be purchased right now from grey dealers / flippers but all carry a premium, the heftiest premium being on the LV and the smallest premium on the steel and gold sub.
    Are prices likely to keep rising or is there a possibility they will fall ?
    I don't mind paying a premium, but don't want to pay way over to find there is suddenly availability in AD's and whichever watch I choose is suddenly only worth retail. Is this likely to happen or will the bubble never burst ?

  2. #2
    Journeyman
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    just buy and enjoy. Best way

  3. #3
    Master jukeboxs's Avatar
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    No idea, and no-one else on here does either. My own view is that Rolex prices will continue to rise, but I don't buy watches based on that requirement.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by boundary546 View Post
    With my Sea Master now sold I'm looking for its replacement, narrowed it down to one of 3 :
    Submariner 126610LV
    GMT Master 126710BLNR
    Submariner 126613LB
    All these can be purchased right now from grey dealers / flippers but all carry a premium, the heftiest premium being on the LV and the smallest premium on the steel and gold sub.
    Are prices likely to keep rising or is there a possibility they will fall ?
    I don't mind paying a premium, but don't want to pay way over to find there is suddenly availability in AD's and whichever watch I choose is suddenly only worth retail. Is this likely to happen or will the bubble never burst ?
    Simple economics.

    Supply is short, demand is high. Supply shows no signs of increasing and demand shows no signs of decreasing.

    If a global pandemic didn’t cripple greys and values, what will? Will it take a global recession or WW3?

    From those 3 I would suspect an LB would be forthcoming with a short wait from an AD, otherwise pay your money and enjoy while your still breathing because there are no pockets in shrouds….

  5. #5
    Craftsman
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    Logic says Rolex will increase prices at some point pushing grey prices up. But in reality no one knows.


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  6. #6
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Anyone's guess. Just buy whichever one you like the most and enjoy it.

    Personally I think prices will keep going up until there's a genuine recession. Low interest rates and cheap credit mean everyone's a scalper.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Anyone's guess.

    Low interest rates and cheap credit mean everyone's a scalper.
    For some people it’s the opportunity to buy things that won’t lose money = free ownership.

    Easy to liquidify if the need arises, too.

  8. #8
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    I predict a big price correction coming very soon
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  9. #9
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    For some people it’s the opportunity to buy things that won’t lose money = free ownership.

    Easy to liquidify if the need arises, too.
    And zero capital gains.

  10. #10
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    Rolex prices look comparatively sane sometimes:

    https://loupethis.com/auctions/patek...tilus-5711-014

    Not directly relevant but if you wonder how high the price of baubles can go.....

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    I predict a big price correction coming very soon
    Interested to hear your view.

    Are you meaning Rolex increase their prices to correct the market, or predicting a huge crash and greys/resellers reducing their prices?

  12. #12
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    I spoke to the manager at my AD last month and he said the demand remains extremely high compared to supply. He reckons they can’t increase the supply by much if at all, so for the moment he can only see prices remaining stable or increasing.

    Obviously only his opinion but I tend to agree. He also said he thinks Rolex will reduce the number of ADs in the near future.

    Buy what you like is my advice for what it’s worth. You are a long time dead!

  13. #13
    Master TKH's Avatar
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    Supply / Demand

    supply has gotten considerably worse in the last 12 months - and demand has seemingly increased to new highs.....

    and no doubt a price increase is on the horizon..

    buy now enjoy...

  14. #14
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    I predict a big price correction coming very soon
    People who buy a Rolex with the firm intention of selling at a later date are the sort of customer Rolex don't want and if these people catch a cold, so what, no one will ever sympathise with them. A good brand image is one where people buy the product and keep it for life.

    I am giving three of my Rolex away to my sons and it's being made clear to each of them that they in turn will pass them on to their son.

    People whinging about the pricing of Rolex are just a PITA.

    So if a correction comes, who cares.

  15. #15
    What is a fact is that Rolex prices cannot keep increasing at well above inflation rates for ever. They eventually would just become unaffordable to all but the very wealthiest, just basic maths.

    So you need to consider how far along that road we are. That is not the only reason why Rolex prices may stall or fall, fashion, recession, interest rates rising so that there are better places to put your money, etc are others.

    Your big worry, in the short term, would be fashion, if the Instagram generation suddenly decide they are not cool, or move on to something cooler, then there could be a sharp shock to second hand prices.
    It seems that in recent years many people have bought Rolex mainly because they are seen are cast iron investment pieces, with little intention to wear them much, if at all. If sentiment changed the fall, from fetching more than retail, could be very rapid.




    Mitch

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    People who buy a Rolex with the firm intention of selling at a later date are the sort of customer Rolex don't want and if these people catch a cold, so what, no one will ever sympathise with them. A good brand image is one where people buy the product and keep it for life.

    I am giving three of my Rolex away to my sons and it's being made clear to each of them that they in turn will pass them on to their son.

    People whinging about the pricing of Rolex are just a PITA.

    So if a correction comes, who cares.

    I’ve got a 1998 16610 that’s being left to my lad, I bought it partly with cash left to me by my Mum when she passed away in May this year. For his sake, I hope the values just keep on climbing and If my son decided he wants to cash it in when I’ve gone for something, well good luck to him. I certainly wouldn’t be narcissistic enough to demand he keeps it and passes it down…….

  17. #17
    Master
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    1 Rolex is 1 Rolex.. it's your pounds that losing value. Spend it before it continues to drop.

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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    People who buy a Rolex with the firm intention of selling at a later date are the sort of customer Rolex don't want and if these people catch a cold, so what, no one will ever sympathise with them. A good brand image is one where people buy the product and keep it for life.

    I am giving three of my Rolex away to my sons and it's being made clear to each of them that they in turn will pass them on to their son.

    People whinging about the pricing of Rolex are just a PITA.

    So if a correction comes, who cares.
    Not much of a gift if you then decide what needs to be done with it.
    Control freak.

  19. #19
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    Interested to hear your view.

    Are you meaning Rolex increase their prices to correct the market, or predicting a huge crash and greys/resellers reducing their prices?
    Furloughed working in other jobs, less money spent on holidays and socialising have given many a few more quid plus reduced levels of stock have driven prices. Factories now producing and population no longer indoors bored want to explore so the trinkets that gave them some pleasure are less important. Stock will come back to the market from sellers and the manufacturers. Wont effect Rolex or The Dealers as the margin is the same regardless in fact profits were higher when prices were lower as turned over quickly, these days dealers margins on Rolex are minimal so the other brands are where the money is at as every instagram johnny is a ‘Kettle Dealer’ happy to make a monkey on a deal without any comebacks.

    Expect a reduced desire coupled with more stock (and I think many are bored of the brands actions and products to some degree) and see the prices correct slightly or at worst simmer for a few years now. I may be wrong but from my experience in the trade and through many conversations had over the last few months it seems we all think this.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hood View Post
    Not much of a gift if you then decide what needs to be done with it.
    Control freak.
    It's a way of looking after the grandson as well as the son.

  21. #21
    Grand Master Dave+63's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    People who buy a Rolex with the firm intention of selling at a later date are the sort of customer Rolex don't want.
    Do you have inside information to support this or is it just your opinion?

    From where I’m standing, it looks to me that Rolex don’t care as long as they are selling watches.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Furloughed working in other jobs, less money spent on holidays and socialising have given many a few more quid plus reduced levels of stock have driven prices. Factories now producing and population no longer indoors bored want to explore so the trinkets that gave them some pleasure are less important. Stock will come back to the market from sellers and the manufacturers. Wont effect Rolex or The Dealers as the margin is the same regardless in fact profits were higher when prices were lower as turned over quickly, these days dealers margins on Rolex are minimal so the other brands are where the money is at as every instagram johnny is a ‘Kettle Dealer’ happy to make a monkey on a deal without any comebacks.

    Expect a reduced desire coupled with more stock (and I think many are bored of the brands actions and products to some degree) and see the prices correct slightly or at worst simmer for a few years now. I may be wrong but from my experience in the trade and through many conversations had over the last few months it seems we all think this.
    So a small correction on the used market is what you’re expecting? Not a crash and grey dealers flooding the market with inventory to mitigate their losses and get cash flowing?

    Interesting.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    It's a way of looking after the grandson as well as the son.
    So your grandson can sell it?

  23. #23
    Grand Master Seamaster73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    It's a way of looking after the grandson as well as the son.
    Rolexes will be as fashionable as blackface long before then.

  24. #24
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    Rolexes will be as fashionable as blackface long before then.
    Yes that is a possibility and dial sizes may change for the larger or smaller. Who knows.

  25. #25
    Yawn 🥱

  26. #26
    Craftsman NCC66's Avatar
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    Who knows? I certainly don’t.

    What I do know though, is that demand is still massively exceeding supply. From chatting to my AD last week, that is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. What *foreseeable* really means, is anyone’s guess.

    As someone relatively new to the serious watch enthusiast thing, I found it a real eye opener that people bought a watch with an eye on value retention or potential growth. Almost everything I’ve ever bought outside of the Rolex world, with the possible exception of a couple of cars, has just depreciated massively. Hence why I simply buy what I like and can afford to lose.

    Personally, I’d just crack on and get the watch you want. I suspect any Rolex bubble will see your *investment* in a good place for a long time. Or just buy another brand, get it at RRP without a wait/requirement to fawn and suck up any losses. At least you’ll have enjoyed whatever you buy.


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  27. #27
    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    I predict a big price correction coming very soon
    Tend to agree. Trying not to go off topic but the bond markets are a bit of a giveaway. As soon as base rates start rising just wait for the meltdown (real one this time).

    "Time is an illusion, lunchtime doubly so”. HHGTTG


  28. #28
    Master M1011's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hood View Post
    Not much of a gift if you then decide what needs to be done with it.
    Control freak.
    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    I’ve got a 1998 16610 that’s being left to my lad, I bought it partly with cash left to me by my Mum when she passed away in May this year. For his sake, I hope the values just keep on climbing and If my son decided he wants to cash it in when I’ve gone for something, well good luck to him. I certainly wouldn’t be narcissistic enough to demand he keeps it and passes it down…….
    His money, his watch, his decision. Perhaps the son should be glad to have the watch to remind him of his father, what's wrong with the person who actually bought it wanting to keep it in the family as a heirloom rather than let it be flipped for short term gain?

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by M1011 View Post
    His money, his watch, his decision. Perhaps the son should be glad to have the watch to remind him of his father, what's wrong with the person who actually bought it wanting to keep it in the family as a heirloom rather than let it be flipped for short term gain?
    It’ll be his sons watch to do what he wants.

  30. #30
    Master reggie747's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    It’ll be his sons watch to do what he wants.
    "You never actually own a Rolex. You merely look after it for the next generation(s)”

  31. #31
    Master M1011's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    It’ll be his sons watch to do what he wants.
    Isn't it considered bad form to sell a gift in most instances?

    Again each to their own, not saying you can't/shouldn't leave that decision up to the recipient, but equally it seems unreasonable to criticise someone for suggesting they want the watch they bought with their money to be kept in their family. IMO.

  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by M1011 View Post
    Isn't it considered bad form to sell a gift in most instances?

    Again each to their own, not saying you can't/shouldn't leave that decision up to the recipient, but equally it seems unreasonable to criticise someone for suggesting they want the watch they bought with their money to be kept in their family. IMO.
    I wasn’t criticising him for leaving his watch to his son and then grandson, more that he was being dictatorial what his son can do with it.

    If, for example, in a generation the 16610 I leave my lad is worth £50,000 and he never wears it due to not being into watches or maybe the valuation, who am I to dictate to him that he must keep it (potentially locked in a safety deposit box) when he could spend it on something that makes him happier, or a chunk towards his mortgage or whatever.

    YMMV of course, as may MickP but dictatorships rarely last….

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghost Chilli View Post
    He also said he thinks Rolex will reduce the number of ADs in the near future.
    That’d be just about right! I wait patiently for years on “the list” and then find my AD isn’t a Rolex AD any more!!

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    People who buy a Rolex with the firm intention of selling at a later date are the sort of customer Rolex don't want
    Odd then that those are exactly the people who seem to be able to buy their watches from ADs, if WF and eBay are any guide!

  35. #35
    In answer to your question.
    No

  36. #36
    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by boundary546 View Post
    Are prices likely to keep rising or is there a possibility they will fall ?
    No

    "Time is an illusion, lunchtime doubly so”. HHGTTG


  37. #37
    Rolex will never produce enough watches to meet demand, nothing will change unless future generations have no interest in mechanical watches

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vanguard View Post
    Rolex will never produce enough watches to meet demand, nothing will change unless future generations have no interest in mechanical watches
    Or something else comes along that ‘influencers’ get behind, leaving once again Rolex to be enjoyed by true watch enthusiasts! Who knows what’s around the corner but I expect change won’t happen soon.

  39. #39
    Master M1011's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    That’d be just about right! I wait patiently for years on “the list” and then find my AD isn’t a Rolex AD any more!!
    Exactly what happened to me. I'd waited months not years to be fair, but it was the only place I had any 'history' so I can't even be bothered going to a new AD to be honest! Oh and of course the AD didn't bother to inform me, found out by walking past and seeing all the Rolex displays had disappeared.

  40. #40
    Master
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    I second that especially the premium stuff. But hey everyone wants to believe it will last forever and ever always been a great buy at Rrp and always will be but 30k for white dial steel Daytona grey prices
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    I predict a big price correction coming very soon
    Sent from my SM-G780F using TZ-UK mobile app
    Last edited by bokbok; 27th October 2021 at 13:34.

  41. #41
    Grand Master
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    Over the last few years I’ve gradually lost interest in Rolex and returned to the watches I was interested in back in the early noughties, namely vintage Omegas. Since 2012, as prices crept upwards, my interest in Rolex started to wane and in recent years I’ve sold all but one, with no intention of buying another.

    Given the eye-watering prices, the lack of availability, the high cost if servicing, perhaps the answer is to stop wanting them and focus on other watches instead. Buying at list prices would be bad enough, but paying over list for the privilege of owning one seems crazy to me.

    Instead of begging to go on a ‘list’ or buying stuff you don’t want in the hope of courting favour with your friendly AD, why not accept you’re not having a Rolex and move on.......target the craving!

  42. #42
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    Rolex has got the strongest brand image in the watch industry. It may not be as good as the really horology makes but its brand image is way up top and that is what sells watches.

    Demand exceeds supply and the parts are now restricted and this will make the brand even stronger.

    One can never accurately predict the future but right now wearing a Rolex is the best thing to do.

  43. #43
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Each day there are 100 new people calling the top of the market and then new highs are set.

    They'll be right one day and when they are they'll forget the 9,000 times they're on record getting it wrong.

  44. #44
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Each day there are 100 new people calling the top of the market and then new highs are set.

    They'll be right one day and when they are they'll forget the 9,000 times they're on record getting it wrong.
    That is as it ever was for every brand war.

    What I just can't understand is why people don't like the Rolex strategy in improving the brand image.

    The dodgy types who don't like the price and the servicing restrictions are moving somewhere else which means that you and I are in less danger of buying some bodged up watch on the pre owned market. Also we are guaranteed strong residuals which is a bonus.

  45. #45
    Rolex, Omega and the other Swiss brands will continue to increase in price.

    They dont care that you wont be able to afford it, someone else will.

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by xellos99 View Post
    Rolex, Omega and the other Swiss brands will continue to increase in price.

    They dont care that you wont be able to afford it, someone else will.
    Which in turn improves the brand image even more.

  47. #47
    Grand Master Seamaster73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Right now wearing a Rolex is the best thing to do.
    If you want to get chibbed.

  48. #48
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    The holy trinity for most people is PP, AP, and Rolex. VC is the beneficiary of a rising tide IMO. Superb watchmaker, but desirability beats skill these days.

    Next to PP and AP (rightly or wrongly) Rolex looks very cheap. If it is or not doesn't matter.

  49. #49
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    If you want to get chibbed.
    Ok so buy a cheap watch, run a cheap car, live in a dump house in a sink estate, don't keep any money or investments and even worse wear Henk type sandals and that way you will never be chibbed.

  50. #50
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    Will the Rolex madness end ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Ok so buy a cheap watch, run a cheap car, live in a dump house in a sink estate, don't keep any money or investments and even worse wear Henk type sandals and that way you will never be chibbed.

    Choose life
    Last edited by joe narvey; 27th October 2021 at 17:23.

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