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Thread: Inflation

  1. #1
    Craftsman
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    Inflation

    Bets on inflation
    6-8 weeks to get the Velux windows I want
    6-8 weeks to get the French windows I want
    Roof tiles long delays
    8x4 rough ply £45 a sheet
    12 months for a Hi Lux



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  2. #2
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    I’ve said it’s coming for quite a while now, but nobody believes me.

    The unprecedented printing of currency because of COVID, unprecedented borrowing on a global scale, followed by the economic tsunami that is to follow post COVID, reduced productivity….

    The current equation = hyperinflation

    https://youtu.be/1HmGLV46L60

    History has a nasty habit of repeating itself unfortunately.
    Last edited by Chinnock; 23rd July 2021 at 21:51.

  3. #3
    Grand Master
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    I'm inclined to agree. House prices in the UK and US ramping up for sure.
    Roubini making some fairly scary pronouncements.
    Last edited by Passenger; 23rd July 2021 at 22:25.

  4. #4
    Journeyman AmosMoses's Avatar
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    As a first time buyer I canít figure out if inflation would be a good thing or not.

    Will the market get flooded with houses that people can no longer afford and then I canít get a mortgage?

    Itís all fun and games!


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  5. #5
    Master Wolfie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitz View Post
    Bets on inflation
    6-8 weeks to get the Velux windows I want
    6-8 weeks to get the French windows I want
    Roof tiles long delays
    8x4 rough ply £45 a sheet
    12 months for a Hi Lux



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    What VELUX are you after? Anything odd? I got mine in 5 days and am about to order some more for the extensionÖ

  6. #6
    Craftsman
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    Plastic triple glazed .. used to be 4 days Ö.


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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by AmosMoses View Post
    As a first time buyer I canít figure out if inflation would be a good thing or not.

    Will the market get flooded with houses that people can no longer afford and then I canít get a mortgage?

    Itís all fun and games!


    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
    On the one hand if you own a house the price should shoot up but on the other hand higher inflation means increased mortgage payments, unless you get a low rate for a fixed term??

  8. #8

    Inflation

    Burger and chips (or fish and chips) in most of the half decent pubs in Cornwall is £15, based on our hols last week.

    When did that happen?

  9. #9
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Inflation is what is happening now vs a year ago. Are we thinking costs will rise so in 12 months they are higher than today? If so what would be the reason as the reason for them to be higher today vs a year ago is very obvious - less so the future direction

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  10. #10
    As a QS we are seeing this across this country and others from steel, cooper to timber. It's not just covid it's also Brexit and customs kicking in, and also a lack of shipping containers.

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  11. #11
    Grand Master
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    Seems reasonable to me at least, that next year can't really be expected to be back to normal either, thus conditions in the near, or even short term do seem to continue to favour inflation.
    Last edited by Passenger; 25th July 2021 at 19:30.

  12. #12
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Inflation is what is happening now vs a year ago. Are we thinking costs will rise so in 12 months they are higher than today? If so what would be the reason as the reason for them to be higher today vs a year ago is very obvious - less so the future direction

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    Covid has merely created the equation of;

    Unprecedented money printing + increased borrowing + less production = hyperinflation

    The equation hasnít changed since ancient China discovered it.

  13. #13
    Grand Master
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    Chuck in a stock market crash and it could get pretty lively.

  14. #14
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Covid has merely created the equation of;

    Unprecedented money printing + increased borrowing + less production = hyperinflation

    The equation hasnít changed since ancient China discovered it.
    Well if that's the case your debts and those of the government will be worth less in real terms. Fix in your mortgage rates for the next 5 years and you'd get the best of both worlds

  15. #15
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Chuck in a stock market crash and it could get pretty lively.
    The governments would just print more money and add more liquidity. We should have had the mother of all crashes last April but co-ordinated fiscal actions globally kicked it down the road. Hopefully it is a long road!

  16. #16
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Well if that's the case your debts and those of the government will be worth less in real terms. Fix in your mortgage rates for the next 5 years and you'd get the best of both worlds
    Way ahead and only 5yrs to go!

    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The governments would just print more money and add more liquidity. We should have had the mother of all crashes last April but co-ordinated fiscal actions globally kicked it down the road. Hopefully it is a long road!
    You can delay the equation, you canít change it!!

  17. #17
    Craftsman
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    Itís possible to get a 1% five year fix from the Nationwide , almost inconceivable to someone who remembers interest rates going up 5% in a day Ö.


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  18. #18
    Grand Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitz View Post
    It’s possible to get a 1% five year fix from the Nationwide , almost inconceivable to someone who remembers interest rates going up 5% in a day ….


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    For a period of a few months, post 08 this would've been... I had a mortgage on one BTL that for an intro offer period tracked BOE base plus a discount, there was a while where the monthly mortgage cost was zero, which was nice...close to free money.

    Switched about 2 years back to cheap 10 yr fixes, 2 and a fraction per cent from memory.

    You only really win on property inflation though if when you sell you don't need to buy another in the local market... or downsize, move somewhere cheaper of course.
    Last edited by Passenger; 25th July 2021 at 20:28.

  19. #19
    Grand Master
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    Some analysis for anyone interested from the IMF on food price inflation,

    https://blogs.imf.org/2021/06/24/fou...r-food-prices/

    Turns out prices were already climbing even before the pandemic hit and increases for consumers look set to continue through next year.

  20. #20
    Grand Master
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    [QUOTE=Passenger;5801429]Some analysis for anyone interested from the IMF on food price inflation,

    https://blogs.imf.org/2021/06/24/fou...r-food-prices/

    Turns out prices were already climbing even before the pandemic hit and increases for consumers look set to continue through next year because the increases producers are already feeling take months to feed through to the retail point.


    whoops sorry double post.

  21. #21
    Master
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    I've been a salesman in various builders merchants for 21 years and I've never seen the market so insane.

    Timber gone from £220 M≥ to over £500 M≥, steel products ultra scarce and up to 26 weeks lead time for Concrete roof tiles.

    Despite all this, people are throwing money at building projects like there's no tomorrow. I know builders quoting 50 percent over normal rate for labour, to put people off because they're drowning in work and they're STILL getting the jobs!

  22. #22
    Grand Master JasonM's Avatar
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    Iíve a work colleague who is planning to build her own home, her builder is refusing to quote as he knows material costs are impossible to predict.
    Cheers..
    Jase

  23. #23
    Grand Master
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    Could see 4 percent this year now, think that's an upwards revision, from the BOE...still no interest rate rise though as they reckon it can't last. Not so sure. Bailey really doesn't inspire.

    Plus the climate change, wild card.
    Last edited by Passenger; 5th August 2021 at 20:26.

  24. #24
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Burger and chips (or fish and chips) in most of the half decent pubs in Cornwall is £15, based on our hols last week.

    When did that happen?
    When the government made it difficult to go abroad and created a captive market for UK resorts!!

  25. #25
    Grand Master Andyg's Avatar
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    Inflation is a good thing if your income keep pace and you have a mortgage (providing interest rates don’t increase). .

    It’s a bad thing if interests rates remain low and you are on a fixed income.

    Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
    Friedrich Nietzsche


  26. #26
    Grand Master
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    Really glad I got my house extension sorted before the materials shortages kicked in, started in January and finished the build in March. Prices were starting to rise but there was no problem getting stuff. Total project cost was £55k, Iím sure it would be higher if we were starting now.

    Inflation worries me but I canít do anything about it. House market has gone crazy over the past couple of years and this has been fuelled by mega- cheap mortgages and cheap fixed rate deals. If mortgage rates increase to 4% or 5% thatíll really hurt, the market may stagnate and prices could drop. Who knows whatíll happen?

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