Bets on inflation
6-8 weeks to get the Velux windows I want
6-8 weeks to get the French windows I want
Roof tiles long delays
8x4 rough ply £45 a sheet
12 months for a Hi Lux
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I’ve said it’s coming for quite a while now, but nobody believes me.
The unprecedented printing of currency because of COVID, unprecedented borrowing on a global scale, followed by the economic tsunami that is to follow post COVID, reduced productivity….
The current equation = hyperinflation
https://youtu.be/1HmGLV46L60
History has a nasty habit of repeating itself unfortunately.
Last edited by Chinnock; 23rd July 2021 at 21:51.
I'm inclined to agree. House prices in the UK and US ramping up for sure.
Roubini making some fairly scary pronouncements.
Last edited by Passenger; 23rd July 2021 at 22:25.
As a first time buyer I can’t figure out if inflation would be a good thing or not.
Will the market get flooded with houses that people can no longer afford and then I can’t get a mortgage?
It’s all fun and games!
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What VELUX are you after? Anything odd? I got mine in 5 days and am about to order some more for the extension…Originally Posted by Kitz
Plastic triple glazed .. used to be 4 days ….
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On the one hand if you own a house the price should shoot up but on the other hand higher inflation means increased mortgage payments, unless you get a low rate for a fixed term??
Burger and chips (or fish and chips) in most of the half decent pubs in Cornwall is £15, based on our hols last week.
When did that happen?
Inflation is what is happening now vs a year ago. Are we thinking costs will rise so in 12 months they are higher than today? If so what would be the reason as the reason for them to be higher today vs a year ago is very obvious - less so the future direction
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As a QS we are seeing this across this country and others from steel, cooper to timber. It's not just covid it's also Brexit and customs kicking in, and also a lack of shipping containers.
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Seems reasonable to me at least, that next year can't really be expected to be back to normal either, thus conditions in the near, or even short term do seem to continue to favour inflation.
Last edited by Passenger; 25th July 2021 at 19:30.
Covid has merely created the equation of;
Unprecedented money printing + increased borrowing + less production = hyperinflation
The equation hasn’t changed since ancient China discovered it.
Chuck in a stock market crash and it could get pretty lively.
Well if that's the case your debts and those of the government will be worth less in real terms. Fix in your mortgage rates for the next 5 years and you'd get the best of both worlds
The governments would just print more money and add more liquidity. We should have had the mother of all crashes last April but co-ordinated fiscal actions globally kicked it down the road. Hopefully it is a long road!
Way ahead and only 5yrs to go!
You can delay the equation, you can’t change it!!
It’s possible to get a 1% five year fix from the Nationwide , almost inconceivable to someone who remembers interest rates going up 5% in a day ….
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For a period of a few months, post 08 this would've been... I had a mortgage on one BTL that for an intro offer period tracked BOE base plus a discount, there was a while where the monthly mortgage cost was zero, which was nice...close to free money.
Switched about 2 years back to cheap 10 yr fixes, 2 and a fraction per cent from memory.
You only really win on property inflation though if when you sell you don't need to buy another in the local market... or downsize, move somewhere cheaper of course.
Last edited by Passenger; 25th July 2021 at 20:28.
Some analysis for anyone interested from the IMF on food price inflation,
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/06/24/fou...r-food-prices/
Turns out prices were already climbing even before the pandemic hit and increases for consumers look set to continue through next year.
[QUOTE=Passenger;5801429]Some analysis for anyone interested from the IMF on food price inflation,
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/06/24/fou...r-food-prices/
Turns out prices were already climbing even before the pandemic hit and increases for consumers look set to continue through next year because the increases producers are already feeling take months to feed through to the retail point.
whoops sorry double post.
I've been a salesman in various builders merchants for 21 years and I've never seen the market so insane.
Timber gone from £220 M³ to over £500 M³, steel products ultra scarce and up to 26 weeks lead time for Concrete roof tiles.
Despite all this, people are throwing money at building projects like there's no tomorrow. I know builders quoting 50 percent over normal rate for labour, to put people off because they're drowning in work and they're STILL getting the jobs!
I’ve a work colleague who is planning to build her own home, her builder is refusing to quote as he knows material costs are impossible to predict.
Cheers..
Jase
Could see 4 percent this year now, think that's an upwards revision, from the BOE...still no interest rate rise though as they reckon it can't last. Not so sure. Bailey really doesn't inspire.
Plus the climate change, wild card.
Last edited by Passenger; 5th August 2021 at 20:26.
When the government made it difficult to go abroad and created a captive market for UK resorts!!
Inflation is a good thing if your income keep pace and you have a mortgage (providing interest rates don’t increase). .
It’s a bad thing if interests rates remain low and you are on a fixed income.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Really glad I got my house extension sorted before the materials shortages kicked in, started in January and finished the build in March. Prices were starting to rise but there was no problem getting stuff. Total project cost was £55k, I’m sure it would be higher if we were starting now.
Inflation worries me but I can’t do anything about it. House market has gone crazy over the past couple of years and this has been fuelled by mega- cheap mortgages and cheap fixed rate deals. If mortgage rates increase to 4% or 5% that’ll really hurt, the market may stagnate and prices could drop. Who knows what’ll happen?
Looks like inflation is really starting to take off now.
Used cars
Energy - natural gas and electricity
Petrol and diesel
Cotton is a all time highs
Eating out
Rail fares look like they could hit 8% next year
Not easy if you are a low earner or on fixed income.
Went to the cinema yesterday pre COVID it cost £7 yesterday it cost £12
£5 at my local to watch the Bond film - and £42 for a 3 hour supply of pick and mix....
Not exactly surprised. Did say it was a perfect storm!
https://www.theguardian.com/business...my-predictions
Inflation has really put balloons up.
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If you don't currently own a house it's bad, as house prices will rise 'inflate'.
If your wages aren't going up by the same as inflation, then you're effectively taking a pay cut as everything you need to buy will have gone up, your money buys less.
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My new job has had a salary rise of £250 pa = £4.807 per week extra, it doesn't match the rate of inflation.
True
And the catch22 is that financially under pressure employees always seek pay rises from their employers to bridge the inflation gap….which typically means the businesses end up with higher staffing costs as £1.00 per hour plus the N.I & pension % increase etc means the business either looks at cutting cost by trying to reduce headcount / hours or simply increases its charge out prices for goods and services which increases ‘inflation’…and so it continues the new wage levels never go down and the new prices don’t either…
And if you analyse the main driving factor (no pun) its mainly fuel / energy prices which are driving household and business overheads up as it effects everyone and everything we do or buy.
A very vicious circle which is hard to break any attempts to increase interest rates to slow inflation by curbing retail borrow and spend will only hit shops and hospitality trying to recover
Unless we get a grip of ‘fuel’ its going to be a tough one to overcome…..OPEC & Vlad hold the cards…
Yup you've identified the price wage inflation feedback loop ,not helped I shouldn't think by declarations from the top that we're moving to a high wage economy. We appear to hold very few cards and of those such as raising interest rates, the consequences will be as you describe...choking off the recovery of shops/hospitality...Hospitality likely across the board I imagine would be implementing post covid price increases.
Personal debt appears to have soared over the last couple of years despite all that free money for furlough, few appear to have used it wisely. Other wheezes like the stamp duty holiday helped in raising the annual average price of homes for first time buyers to not far off 10 per cent! Yikes.
I think the Boe's optimistic 4 per cent prediction is probably already in the rear view mirror, I think it's possible the number could be closer to almost double that by next year.
For comparison last month the US CPI inflation rate was 6.2 per cent.
Last edited by Passenger; 11th November 2021 at 15:55.
My favourite supermarket pizza just jumped
from £3.29 to £3.69, a 12% increase.
I’m now solidly over £100 every time I fill up my car, even with nearly one quarter of a tank left.
Cost of living crisis, innit.
Ours' was just over 70 euro last week tank was nearly empty, central govt's 20 cents discount per litre makes a nice difference. The weekly shop's up around 120/130 euro now... a decade ago it was 75/85, can't really complain, also the 3rd mouth in the family has gone from a baby to an always 'starving' pre teen...so some of it's increased spend as well as inflation. Other thing's like a cup of coffee and typical breakfast of grated tomato, olive oil on toast, are for the moment remaining at 2 /2.50 euro. We ate out on Easter Sunday, 3 courses, I had a decent steak, Mr's P the slow oven cooked beef cheek which was excellent melted off the bone, a couple, 3, 4 rounds of drinks, nice spot by a harbour, yachts to look at... for the 3 of us it was 110 euro's, a bit pricey cos' location... but I wouldn't say the cost is noticeably any higher.
Can't recall which BOE committee member said it, but I think I heard one of them say last week to expect another rate hike in May.
Last edited by Passenger; 25th April 2022 at 09:43.
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