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Thread: Best investment potential over the next few years?

  1. #1
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    Best investment potential over the next few years?

    1) 2xDaytona 116520
    Or

    2) 1xPP Aquanaut
    Or
    3) 1xOmega silver Snoopy apollo 13 silver award


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  2. #2
    They’re all going to RRP. Buy gold.

    HTH.

  3. #3
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    Spending less time on a watch forum and enjoying life.

  4. #4
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    All three are ridiculously overpriced already and buying in now at what might be the top of market is not a wise plan.

    A better punt would be the absolute best vintage piece that you can find, Red Sub, Great White, DRSD etc and sit on it for a few years. Price is unlikely to collapse any time soon.

  5. #5
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    I don't know about UK but FED and ECB are printing money like crazy. If I had spare money, I'd invest to land, apartments, anything.

    Anything but keeping the money floating in the bank account. Italy, Spain, etc. all have disastrous economies.

    This is probably why Rolex prices have gone berzerk. Same with classic cars and many other assets too.

    Take Mercedes Pagoda, Jaguar E-Type and air cooled old Porsche 911 prices from the last 5 years. They're up probably 30-40%.

    Sound like an inflation coming to me. Maybe it's not going to end nicely for the European middle class.

  6. #6
    Grand Master Saint-Just's Avatar
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    Why is this even in Watchtalk?
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  7. #7
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  8. #8
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    The watches you've mentioned are peaking at the moment. Whilst I'm sure there is head room, its unlikely to be staggering. More likely they'll settle down or correct slightly.

    Parking money in watches is a 'fairly' recent phenomenon for lots of people. It'll go someway to explain the current markets for Rolex, AP and PP.

    Buying good older pieces that have been worn would be my vote, you're able to wear them and not worry about downgrading a new 2020/21 Rolex from Unworn to Mint. Don't forget, this is a hobby so be sure to buy watches that you like and will enjoy wearing!

  9. #9
    I have no idea and neither do people who have commented before. And frankly, it shouldn’t matter
    FWIW, all are currently ridiculously priced but no one can predict how it will be in future.
    And yes, purely as investment there are better choices outside the hobby.

  10. #10
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    There's an echo in here

  11. #11
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    The two Daytonas would be a reasonably safe bet but as with any investment it will be a gamble. So you can gloat if they continue to rise in price but you will only have yourself to blame if they crash - your choice.

    There is nothing wrong in investing in Daytonas but just make sure you are not one of these people who have to sell the watch in order to buy something else in an emergency. If your emergency comes at the time of a dip, you will be like a boat without a paddle.

    Also you would be much better off investing in equities as they are still the best proven long term bet. Make sure your watch values never exceed 5% of your savings pot and that does not include your property. So if the two daytonas are valued at say £40k, best to have at least £800k spread out in other investments to protect your exposure.

    So 5% in watches, 5% in say fine wines, 5% in antiques and so on, don't put all of your eggs into one basket.

  12. #12
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    Silver snoopy prices are coming down already from stupidly high grey levels, as nobody is buying at plus 20k and omega slowly release this. The same cannot be said about the Rolex and Patek as it continues to creep higher, shows there continues to be new buyers for them.

  13. #13
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    Do any of these guys starting watches as investment threads actually like watches? You know, just the experience of wearing something that you particularly enjoy whilst not giving a toss about what it cost and how much you may have made or lost since you bought the damn thing?

  14. #14
    Grand Master Onelasttime's Avatar
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    Bet you a Daytona the OP doesn’t return to the thread.

  15. #15
    Watches are not investments. They are timepieces. They tell the time.

    Would you be happy if your pension manager "invested" your pension fund in watches and kept them in a safe only to be worn on high days and holidays?

  16. #16
    Master
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    Watch investment? First world problem.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Also you would be much better off investing in equities as they are still the best proven long term bet. Make sure your watch values never exceed 5% of your savings pot and that does not include your property. So if the two daytonas are valued at say £40k, best to have at least £800k spread out in other investments to protect your exposure.

    So 5% in watches, 5% in say fine wines, 5% in antiques and so on, don't put all of your eggs into one basket.

    Agreed on first sentence. On the second, I wish!

    People should just be comfortable with their own spending/savings/investments.

  18. #18
    Posted this on another thread but I think it's relevant here and bears repeating.

    "You never lose money on a Rolex" and "Never sell a Rolex". Both can't be true. If your Rolex keeps going up in value but you never sell it then it's a purely hypothetical gain, a paper profit. Meanwhile, it's not "paying" you anything: no rent, no interest, no dividends. But it might be costing you (insurance, servicing, stress).

    Vintage is the way to go. Buy old, interesting, rare, good-looking watches in the best condition you can find. And wear them. Enjoy them. Use them. They ain't making them any more. Hopefully you'll cash out at what you paid, maybe more. (Maybe less.)

    I reckon my modest collection is currently (I stress currently) worth between 50% and 100% more than I paid but 1.) I know my market so 2.) I bought well and 3.) I bought some of them a long time ago, ahead of the curve.

    Even if they fell back to half of what I paid I'd have enjoyed them, learned a lot and would write-off any loss as "rent" -- the cost of "hiring" such beautiful, interesting and historic objects.

    If I sold them for what I'd paid I'd OK with that. Try doing that with your average car or computer or boxer shorts. And they've brought me a lot more pleasure. Some of them even tell the time quite well.

    I'm 50 this year. My generation is probably the last one to have had mechanical wristwatches when young and to aspire to good ones when older. I think demographics are against this hobby in the long term, with the possible exception of 1.) "luxury" brand names (Rolex, PP, maybe Omega et al.) as status symbols and, effectively, veblen jewellery and 2.) nice vintage watches (classic models / references such as Subs and Speedies, historic military issued timepieces, cool / cute / clever / quality watches with great design such as Monaco, Reverso etc)

    Look at the market for pocket watches: something that 100 years was a very expensive watch and is still superbly well made can be had very very cheaply. I can't quite see the wristwatch strap going the same way as the pocket watch's chain but equally I can't see many young people considering any watch, even digital, being an essential part of their wardrobe and daily life.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabiscuit View Post
    Do any of these guys starting watches as investment threads actually like watches? You know, just the experience of wearing something that you particularly enjoy whilst not giving a toss about what it cost and how much you may have made or lost since you bought the damn thing?
    Yes I do, I have a lovely 5 piece collection which i rotate
    I am liquidating an asset so looking to put into some safe watches
    If people don't like threads on watch investments then don't read the thread. The title was pretty clear.

  20. #20
    Grand Master Saint-Just's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    Yes I do, I have a lovely 5 piece collection which i rotate
    I am liquidating an asset so looking to put into some safe watches
    If people don't like threads on watch investments then don't read the thread. The title was pretty clear.
    It is not a smart question to ask a group of watch amateurs. Speak to an investment broker, or tell us about your 5 watches. Investing money (especially significant amounts) is a serious matter, and we are enthusiasts, nothing more.

    Furthermore you would struggle to get those watches in a reasonable future at RRP (understatement award contender), and the price you'd need to pay would make them a good investment for the seller, maybe not for you.
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Make sure your watch values never exceed 5% of your savings pot and that does not include your property. So if the two daytonas are valued at say £40k, best to have at least £800k spread out in other investments to protect your exposure.

    So 5% in watches, 5% in say fine wines, 5% in antiques and so on, don't put all of your eggs into one basket.
    I would kind of agree on a 5% figure but being realistic its more like 5% of people's overall assets - very very few people would be in the position to have a substantial value watch collection (that's the type of watches the OP is talking about) and it only equate to 5% of their savings pot. Not saying I disagree with your logic but just seriously doubt many people with big watch collections are that disciplined.

    I think if the truth were told there are a lot of people on the various watch forums that have got a ridiculous amount of their overall net worth in watches right now because of the hype over the last 3 or 4 year years. People see watch investments as a 'no brainer' - you buy X Rolex for 7k from an AD and its worth 10k. Even if you can't buy from an AD and you pay 10k, it will soon be worth 14k! Rinse and repeat. So far that has held up. It may always hold up. It may totally collapse. So to elaborate on the OP's question, paying RRP for the right watches, is probably a fairly safe bet, paying grey prices in the hope the hype continues is a big risk.

    The day watches go back to being about watches and not money will be a welcome day.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    It is not a smart question to ask a group of watch amateurs. Speak to an investment broker, or tell us about your 5 watches. Investing money (especially significant amounts) is a serious matter, and we are enthusiasts, nothing more.

    Furthermore you would struggle to get those watches in a reasonable future at RRP (understatement award contender), and the price you'd need to pay would make them a good investment for the seller, maybe not for you.
    I'll decide what I ask on here and people have a right to reply
    I have Rolex 14060, 16700, 116520 white thin hands.., a VC 4500 blue dial and a Moonwatch 145.022 78



    Sent from my EML-L09 using Tapatalk

  23. #23
    Grand Master Saint-Just's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    I'll decide what I ask on here and people have a right to reply
    I have Rolex 14060, 16700, 116520 white thin hands.., a VC 4500 blue dial and a Moonwatch 145.022 78
    Nice bunch. As you see we are using our right to reply, and I voiced my opinion about the thread;
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    I am liquidating an asset so looking to put into some safe watches

    OK, so how much money are talking about here? A brace of Daytona 116520s will cost you, what, £40k? That's an awkward amount. Half or double that and I'd know what I'd do.

    But it's about a third of a house which would return you £500cm / £6k pa net. I'd be looking to raise the rest (even get a mortgage) and do a buy-to-let property. Something solid, a reasonable area, freehold.

  25. #25
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    Physical assets like watches produce no income and have holding costs (eg, insurance and servicing).

    That needs to be factored in to any comparison of alternative investments.

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    The two Daytonas would be a reasonably safe bet but as with any investment it will be a gamble. So you can gloat if they continue to rise in price but you will only have yourself to blame if they crash - your choice.

    There is nothing wrong in investing in Daytonas but just make sure you are not one of these people who have to sell the watch in order to buy something else in an emergency. If your emergency comes at the time of a dip, you will be like a boat without a paddle.

    Also you would be much better off investing in equities as they are still the best proven long term bet. Make sure your watch values never exceed 5% of your savings pot and that does not include your property. So if the two daytonas are valued at say £40k, best to have at least £800k spread out in other investments to protect your exposure.

    So 5% in watches, 5% in say fine wines, 5% in antiques and so on, don't put all of your eggs into one basket.
    And 5% in another 17 things he probably knows nothing about.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onelasttime View Post
    Bet you a Daytona the OP doesn’t return to the thread.
    You owe us a Daytona.

  28. #28
    Don’t know if the OP is trolling, he must have expected some of the comments .

    I think it’s fair to say watches can be an investment, by the same token, cellaring wine you’ll never drink, storing cars you’ll never drive etc is dull, even if financially savvy. Like many things it’s difficult to predict how the market is going to go, thus very difficult to say where best to put ones money.

    As I’m sure it’s clear, this isn’t why I come to this forum. I wish him/her the best of luck with their investments.

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    All three are ridiculously overpriced already and buying in now at what might be the top of market is not a wise plan.

    A better punt would be the absolute best vintage piece that you can find, Red Sub, Great White, DRSD etc and sit on it for a few years. Price is unlikely to collapse any time soon.

    Yeah, I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be buying for an investment rn... other than bluechip stuff like Mil-Subs and Paul Newmans, which you both have to be incredibly careful buying, and need a lot of money for


    Re Daytonas:

    I'd go for ceramic 116500s or good condition 16520s over 116520s , and I'd also consider two-tone Zeniths (16523) or solid gold (16528) with black or white dials (no gemstones).

    Re Aquanauts:

    It feels like Nautlius-mania (which is what is dragging up Aquanaut prices) can't possibly continue, but then I thought that some time ago and they've continued to rise. If it does, then the Aquanaut may continue to rise/hold firm.


    There are a few vintage sports Rolex which I think are under-valued compared to some of their peers: 1665 'Great White' Sea-Dwellers (the 1665 is possibly the greatest diving watch ever IMO), and there can't be many 1655 Explorer IIs knocking about - they're very distinctive compared to Subs/GMTs... mind you, they are left-field in terms of aesthetic and a disaster in terms of legibility (I still like them!) Likewise some early (pre-5513) Subs are not *that* expensive, and I have a suspicion that early Datejusts and Day-Dates may have their time in the sun as people look beyond the sports stuff. Not to sound like a broken record, but buy well - which means hunting down a knowledgeable collector's forum listings, or paying the premium for a very reputable dealer (buying poorly could be a lot more expensive than their premium).


    Another tactic might be to go for quite rare 5 digit sports watches...

    A Rolex 14270 'Blackout' has blacked out '3, 6, 9' numerals and was only made in small quantities, and there's an Italian one for £18k on C24... whether that's a completely fictional dial or not God knows... Italian sellers have a reputation, but there'll be plenty of bent dealers elsewhere, and some honest ones in Italy (it's where the Rolex sports enthusiasm started so they do know a lot)

    A Rolex 16550 'Panna' or 116520 'Panna' - these watches have dials that have turned cream with age, giving them a rather different look than the 'run-of-the-mill' Explorers/Daytonas. Again, buyer beware, some of those dials will no doubt have been 'helped along' (though if you cant tell then maybe that doesn't matter in terms of price)


    Does feel like a 'buyer beware' market, but there's a lot of money out there, low interest rates, and Instagram/Hodinkee has propelled loads of the young rich (often wealthy East Asians of which there'll continue to be an increasing number of) into the hobby, which massively increases the demand - whilst vintage by its nature has a fixed/declining supply.


    Of course, tracker funds/buy-to-let etc. may be more sensible, but I know far more about watches than those likely more sensible avenues (and I still don't know that much about watches).

    I have a hunch that Apple's $18bn R&D budget, as well as data from Apple Watches will give them massive bio-tech advances with time, not to mention all those Apple Watch sales when their health features continue to grow, and health insurance companies start giving big discounts for wearing them - so if I had anything spare rn I'd put it into their shares.
    Last edited by Dark Side of The Loon; 27th May 2021 at 13:53.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post

    The day watches go back to being about watches and not money will be a welcome day.
    I think a large proportion of us have a foot in both camps.

    I bought my first Rolex in January 2014. I knew very little about Rolex other that they were accurate, built like a tractor and that Rolex would service them for years to come. I liked the appearance of the 39mm Explorer, so I bought it. From that day onwards I will admit to having a love affair with Rolex, they are just a brilliant watch. That is the enthusiast side of me.

    The money angle comes from the fact that I know I am unlikely to lose money on them, so why not buy more?

    The is no reason for the "enthusiasts" to criticise the "investors" and vice versa. We should all love each other.

    /

  31. #31
    Grand Master Onelasttime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M1011 View Post
    You owe us a Daytona.
    I never learn

    I'll start saving.

  32. #32
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    Given how expensive watches are these days only the very rich and care free wouldn’t care about value retention or even a bit of value appreciation.

    For me the line is crossed though when you don’t even like the watch and just buying for investment or speculation. I mean I cannot get my head round the blue silver snoopy, it’s average and gimmicky on reflection and I would struggle to justify even at the 8.25k rrp forget the fantasy grey prices of 25k. The 1957 trilogy speedmaster on the other hand is special and the market is finally waking up to it. So even if omega had one for sale to me at 8.25k I would still think twice about buying it even though I can make an instant buck on it, probably, though who knows how much the fantasy dealers would actually pay you for one.

  33. #33
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    Richard Mille.
    Notably the NTPT models like 35-01 35-02 67-02 etc.

  34. #34
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Side of The Loon View Post
    Another tactic might be to go for quite rare 5 digit sports watches...

    A Rolex 14270 'Blackout' has blacked out '3, 6, 9' numerals and was only made in small quantities, and there's an Italian one for £18k on C24... whether that's a completely fictional dial or not God knows... Italian sellers have a reputation, but there'll be plenty of bent dealers elsewhere, and some honest ones in Italy (it's where the Rolex sports enthusiasm started so they do know a lot)
    Definitely exists, I had one and sold it on here. I think the watch was dated around 1991 and was a full set from Italy. Sold it to a member in Northern Ireland as I recall, often wondered if he still has it. It has clearly tripled in price since I sold.

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    I'll decide what I ask on here and people have a right to reply
    I have Rolex 14060, 16700, 116520 white thin hands.., a VC 4500 blue dial and a Moonwatch 145.022 78



    Sent from my EML-L09 using Tapatalk
    When he said tell us about your watches, I think he meant for you to take some time to enjoy them with the forum.

    Ultimately this is a watch enthusiasts forum who’s main aim is to enjoy a shared passion.

    It’s not an investment forum and whilst it’s fine, people using watches as investments has ultimately reduced the enjoyment the hobby offers.

    You’ve got a lot of advice from a pretty poor OP which speaks volume about the forum members here!

  36. #36
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    “Play the game my way or I’ll take my football home!”

  37. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    I'll decide what I ask on here and people have a right to reply
    I have Rolex 14060, 16700, 116520 white thin hands.., a VC 4500 blue dial and a Moonwatch 145.022 78
    Well said. And nice collection.

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    1) 2xDaytona 116520
    Or

    2) 1xPP Aquanaut
    Or
    3) 1xOmega silver Snoopy apollo 13 silver award


    Sent from my EML-L09 using Tapatalk
    Honestly, who cares? It’s this sentiment that sucks the fun out of watches.

  39. #39
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    Thanks for all the constructive comments

    Sent from my EML-L09 using Tapatalk

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    I think a large proportion of us have a foot in both camps.

    I bought my first Rolex in January 2014. I knew very little about Rolex other that they were accurate, built like a tractor and that Rolex would service them for years to come. I liked the appearance of the 39mm Explorer, so I bought it. From that day onwards I will admit to having a love affair with Rolex, they are just a brilliant watch. That is the enthusiast side of me.

    The money angle comes from the fact that I know I am unlikely to lose money on them, so why not buy more?

    The is no reason for the "enthusiasts" to criticise the "investors" and vice versa. We should all love each other.

    /
    Mick I agree 100% with your comments above I beat you by 3 years with a discounted sub purchase in 2011 and have topped up in 2016 and 2020.

    Steve

  41. #41
    My choice: two white dial full-set 116520s. But what do I know...
    :-)

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    I'll decide what I ask on here and people have a right to reply
    I have Rolex 14060, 16700, 116520 white thin hands.., a VC 4500 blue dial and a Moonwatch 145.022 78



    Sent from my EML-L09 using Tapatalk
    Great collection. In answer to your question. If. You can get a steel Daytona and a steel PP Aquanaut at RRP it will be the best investment opportunity you will ever make.

  43. #43
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    Without being too mawkish; have you been unfortunate enough to see what happens to possessions people love, once they are gone? It’s all suddenly as nothing. Enjoy a watch, wear it every day, bond with it. Know that everything passes.
    Just have fun. Wear what you enjoy. Cheap Seiko or vastly costly Patek. Both just watches.
    Last edited by paskinner; 27th May 2021 at 21:19.

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    Without being too mawkish; have you been unfortunate enough to see what happens to possessions people love, once they are gone? It’s all suddenly as nothing. Enjoy a watch, wear it every day, bond with it. Know that everything passes.
    Just have fun. Wear what you enjoy. Cheap Seiko or vastly costly Patek. Both just watches.
    I totally agree with you, but people are a lot more savvy these days and looking at a potential investment opportunity, or a more resilient brand that doesn’t drop in value the second you walk out of the shop.

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    Thanks for all the constructive comments

    Sent from my EML-L09 using Tapatalk
    A lot of watch folk seem to be be triggered by the word investment (or speculation). No idea why. The whole buy what you like.....yeah....ye do realise that’s possible to do and also buy watches that might move upward.

    Now for your question


    Quote Originally Posted by mhurley View Post
    1) 2xDaytona 116520
    Or

    2) 1xPP Aquanaut
    Or
    3) 1xOmega silver Snoopy apollo 13 silver award


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    Snoopy? Hard to say but I don’t think so. It’s not a limited edition and I don’t trust omega to manage the supply to keep it trading above RRP long term.

    Edit. Just realised you meant the old snoopy. Which is already discontinued. Don’t know a lot about these so won’t comment.

    Daytona. The most solid. Already discontinued. Unlikely to double in value but will strengthen away slowly and steadily.

    5167. Already ridiculous. But will get more ridiculous within 3 years when it is discontinued. I think these could be driven on further and further over the next few years.
    Last edited by 893bet; 27th May 2021 at 21:48.

  46. #46
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    I think the Bvlgari Octo Finissimo has the potential to appreciate in value.
    Great movement, unique design, interesting case materials, fit and finish looks superb.

    Only thing holding it back is the brand name value and I think over time that will improve if they keep knocking out stunners like that

  47. #47
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    Best advice?
    Don’t mix your hobby with making money.

  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    The two Daytonas would be a reasonably safe bet but as with any investment it will be a gamble. So you can gloat if they continue to rise in price but you will only have yourself to blame if they crash - your choice.

    There is nothing wrong in investing in Daytonas but just make sure you are not one of these people who have to sell the watch in order to buy something else in an emergency. If your emergency comes at the time of a dip, you will be like a boat without a paddle.

    Also you would be much better off investing in equities as they are still the best proven long term bet. Make sure your watch values never exceed 5% of your savings pot and that does not include your property. So if the two daytonas are valued at say £40k, best to have at least £800k spread out in other investments to protect your exposure.

    So 5% in watches, 5% in say fine wines, 5% in antiques and so on, don't put all of your eggs into one basket.
    Top trolling from Mick yet again
    Old rascal.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hood View Post
    Top trolling from Mick yet again
    Old rascal.
    I am not trolling. I am suggesting he puts no more than 5% of his portfolio into watches. If he accepts that as good advice (which it is) then he should only buy two Daytonas as an investment if he has £800k stashed away.

    If he is buying them purely to wear, then that does not apply.

    Buying commodities is riskier than equities. I made a lot of money when I sold some English shotguns and have lost a packet in antique furniture. Some you win and some you lose but with equities you usually win.

  50. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Some you win and some you lose but with equities you usually win.
    Almost all equities have a basic book value, i.e. the net value of assets. With commodities that's trickier. Property is, literally, bricks and mortar -- often land, too. Oil and gold are what they are. But art and antiques have very little intrinsic value. (Ever sold a gold watch for scrap? But what is a vase except for some clay and laze and maybe paint.) With these it's all down to the human element of the market. And that is purely subjective. Fashions come and go, things rise and fall in value. Who wants an huge gilt-framed Old Master oil painting these days? Not so many people. Will Banksy prints always be worth tens of thousands? I don't think so. Meanwhile, with Russian and Chinese money the old stuff from those regions is being snapped up by oligarchs.

    Would I buy watches as a long term investment? No. The market is already overheated imho and the people who are dropping five and six and seven figure sum into vintage Rolex and PP can afford to take a bath on them. For them it's like a yacht or a car, another status symbol that might well depreciate. They are not investors, they are playboys. Sure you could try and get a Daytona and flip it. You could even sit on it and it might well go up in value. In fact, it probably will. But at the end of the day what have you actually got? Some steel and sapphire and a fairly unimpressive (for the money) movement.

    Buy equities or property. Dabble in what you like and know. I could sell a house a buy a milsub but 1.) the house is returning me £500 pcm / £6k pa net and 2.) you can't live in a milsub. They could both tank but in the meantime the house will have earned me real money (not paper profits) and, er, it's a house. People need houses more than they need obsolete timepieces.

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