Yes it's a Rolex thread, don't read if you don't care.
I am now considering putting some of my savings into a new Rolex Sub, no-date preferably although a date is also good.
To be honest I am obviously a little out of touch as I was previously unaware that the new model (41mm, slimmer, slimmer lugs with newer movement etc.) is due early next year?
The older (fatter lugs) version is no longer available it seems.
I'm not sure if it is a genuine and unavoidable consequence of Covid-19 or a calculated campaign to create a blood lust (which is what Rolex usually do isn't it?) but the new 2021 model seems to have created a ridiculous level of demand. Even the non-date is being quoted at 3 years+.
I am being told by AD's that they cannot keep up with demand which leads me to the question...
Will this watch be so bloody common that it loses some of it's exclusivity and possibly will not 'appreciate' as much as some may hope?
I am now reconsidering as I don't want something that every Tom, Dick and harry is wearing (genuine that is, not fakes).
I'd buy one in a heartbeat but just can't make myself go onto a list that long as I think it's just plain silly.
Would I be just as well off putting my cash into another model i.e. a minty with box/papers/full Monty example of a SD4000 ceramic or the older ceramic Sub with the fatter lugs?
I'm not interested in buying and selling on for profit, this is a watch for me, but I do want to ensure my cash will be well placed and not decrease over the years as I may sell on to help fund my cataract operations or care home etc. when I'm too old and weak to carry off a dive watch!
Better than an ISA but with lots of fun for a few years until I'm old and tired.
You could always step back a few years and buy a 5 digit reference Sub, GMT, SD etc. Plenty available, preferred by many and as they are now out of production prices seem to keep going in one direction and you don't have to sell your soul in order to get one.
Just a thought...
Yes. Rolex have created a price bubble that will eventually burst. Most people now buy them as an investment and when values start to fall they will sell and prices will head downwards quickly. Rolex wont mind but if you purchase at the wrong time you could lose out.
Hasn't the 'bubble burst' been predicted for a decade or so now?
Ha ha ha ha ha.....Originally Posted by Tosh
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
New model out now. Get your name down for one asap at your local AD by calling in and telling them what you want and why. Don't worry they'll never be that common.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
I know 2-3 people who simply can’t get a Rolex they want for a birthday but would they want them if they were readily available? I doubt it.
A number of grey dealers on YouTube have reported increases in sales of omega, iwc etc as people are becoming more turned off by the games folk have to play to part with £££ for a superfluous luxury item. Many will say a bubble will burst, many will say it won’t. As long as Rolex is able to maintain/engineer the mad used prices nothing will change. Grey dealers will speak to each other to keep prices high as they all lose if prices crash. It will take an awful lot for them to crash, even during COVID times demand remains.
Yup it sure has. Covid was supposed to pop it
Must admit, the newer version with the reduced width lugs is now hitting a sweet spot for me.
The ND would be a preference although a date would be nice to if one came up.
I just hate all this, 'you must come in, in person and register your interest and if we deem you worthy we may allow you to wait 3 years to buy one off us' mentality.
Naïve?...perhaps but it's only a watch so I'll live with it until the circumstances are right.
Perhaps I will look a little further into a pre-loved example?.......
Sweeeet ... that looks stunning mate and those slimmer lugs are way better than the last version.New model out now. Get your name down for one asap at your local AD by calling in and telling them what you want and why. Don't worry they'll never be that common.
How does it wear vs the 40mm version? Is the thickness notably reduced?
......selling it?
Ha ha, it's a keeper I'm afraid.Sweeeet ... that looks stunning mate and those slimmer lugs are way better than the last version.
How does it wear vs the 40mm version? Is the thickness notably reduced?
......selling it?
It wears really well, and I'm well impressed by it. It seems pretty slim compared to some other watches, doesn't sit high at all. It's worth asking at the dealers, nothing to lose by asking. I asked as was in there taking swmbo watch in for a service and they rang me 2 weeks later. I have bought other stuff from them, but not as much as some. You never know until you try.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
A retail price sports Rolex is never a bad buy. I can’t believe that a standard ND Sub can be that hard to get if you really want one, but I accept it may take months to a year.
It’s a consumer cyclical, the economy changes, fashions change. 6-7 years ago it was Panerai that was hot with restricted supply. I wouldn’t feel confident at WF prices.
Put your name down and get one. I’m trying not to do the the same, but when I next check in with Goldsmiths to see how am doing on the GMT list (March, 18 months), I’ll probably cave and ask to be added to the Sub list.
Dave
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i wouldnt base anything on what an AD told you, the main thing is are you going to get tired of it after the honeymoon is over. That happens to many people
Rolex will mind if prices drop and discounting at the ADs rears its ugly head again. Rolex allowed their brand image to sink and by restricting demand, they have restored it and everyone is happy except those who want to buy a watch on the cheap.
You can pop out and buy any Rolex model you want today, all you have to do is buy from a grey dealer at the market rate.
Rolex have a winning formula and it will be continued to be used.
Based purely on posts I've read in recent months, it appears the no date is in greater demand that the date version (at least on this forum). I'm sure it wasn't always that way and I wonder if the ever rising list prices have any part to play or if its aesthetics?
Can one of you tell me how Rolex have “engineered” the situation please?
Stated as those it’s fact. Can I borrow your crystal ball.
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All bubbles burst eventually
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Probably connected to history for WIS people. Your average Joe on the street would expect a cyclops and a date because that's what all Rolex have. The purists on watch forums want a true Submariner with history dating back to the mid 1950s, not one of those later date thingies that were introduced around 1969.
Might be completely wrong, usual am.
Is it a bubble or is it inflation and market value?
I’m not so sure I’d be as convinced as you that it’s going to back off soon, or ever.
Time will tell.
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Yaaaaaawn
You could post a WTB - or as others have said - contact your AD you may be surprised!
I’m just unsure how they have engineered it?
Where did it all begin or was it accidental?
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Apt username:-)
Wasn't the view back in March that this was it, the prices are going to tumble, and happy days plenty will hit the market as everyone panics and off loads their SS collections?????????
I think many of us wish that the bubble will burst but I think it will be a cold day in hell.........
Don't get me wrong, I like Rolex, I've had a few over the years, including SD, Sub dates, Datejust and even a Kermit which I still kick myself for selling in 2012.
What I meant by 'engineered' was that in my opinion (others are available) Rolex have always maintained a deliberate and long waiting list on certain models, perhaps by limiting either production or if not the supply chain out of the factory.
This in turn leads to a high demand and therefore long waiting lists, not because a disproportionate % of the population want one but simply because the small % that do are still not provided for.
This in turn leads to a very vibrant second hand and grey market, which in turn leads to very healthy pre-owned prices, which in turn leads to justification of ever increasing new prices.
Therefore Rolex ensure a certain kudos or status that ensures their being set apart from Omega/Tag etc. despite not always providing proportionately increased quality or style.
Its just a theory and perhaps it's wrong but it kind of makes sense in a paranoid conspiracy theorist kind of way.
All said and done, I like them and really want a new ND Sub
Last edited by Orange Peel; 14th December 2020 at 21:26.
Forgot to mention, I have called around several (4) AD's today regarding the new ND Sub, and all of them are saying 2-3 years if I'm lucky. None of them were taking any more names on their lists.
Also, what exactly is the RRP of the new models?
OP seems confused. On one hand he is worried about every T, D And H wearing one and the he talks about the ‘small’ percentage of population wanting one. And provides no clue as to how it will become a victim of whatever he is rambling about. Every watch company would like be a ‘victim’ like Rolex.
Following his line of thought ( difficult as it is to follow), may be he is trying to suggest that Rolex will become so popular that it becomes very common and once it becomes very common, man be people will not hanker for it as much. A kind of a reverse Veblen theory. It is quite a stretch but Rolex avoids that by constant tweaks to existing models and improving the movements, design etc.
£6450. Increase imminent (9%)? BTW - the new model was released and made available this year.
Last edited by MartynJC (UK); 14th December 2020 at 21:36.
Is there are truth to this price increase rumour? I thought it was something that was started in the bear pit and has spread across multiple forums.
I have been reading exactly the same comment for more than 5 years... at first I even agreed with it!
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Rumours starting in the Bear Pit, that wil be the same bloke who said Goldsmiths Liverpool had taken delivery of 200 Daytonas, cleared their waiting list in a flash and had even placed a few in the window.
Don't the dealers stop selling when a price rise is around the corner. People on here seem to be getting the call on a daily basis which does seem at odds with usual dealership behaviour.
Don’t go telling Mick that - he advised all AD’s not to seek any Rolexes for. 6 weeks then cash in massively on the 6% price rise that is supposedly happening in January. I’d be surprised if the nations AD’s haven’t listened to him
I've just worked out why they are so hard to get. Mick has been telling them to never sell a Rolex and that's what the problem is. The safes are full of them, but listening to Uncle Mick, they won't sellDon’t go telling Mick that - he advised all AD’s not to seek any Rolexes for. 6 weeks then cash in massively on the 6% price rise that is supposedly happening in January. I’d be surprised if the nations AD’s haven’t listened to him
You’re onto something here, I think he had a word with them around 4 years ago as they’ve been hard to get since then. You do see the occasional incoming on the arrivals thread so maybe the odd AD has gone rogue in the hope the uncle Mick never finds out. No doubt he takes away their AD status if he doesI've just worked out why they are so hard to get. Mick has been telling them to never sell a Rolex and that's what the problem is. The safes are full of them, but listening to Uncle Mick, they won't sell
I remember when I purchased my first Rolex I had just joined the army and they were a rare thing in the wild however in the Ad easily available. My first daytona I picked it up from Ernest Jones with a discount to boot. But than I only saw Rolex adverts in the papers, whilst travelling and at horse shows etc. Now the brand is everywhere the the IG influencers are touting them and unfortunately everyone wants them to.
I honestly think IMHO that demand has outstripped supply. I say this as being in two ADs recently and PM watches costing 20-40k plus were selling as quickly as they were coming in to the point where they were propel who had paid and were waging for orders.
Last edited by shoppy; 15th December 2020 at 05:28.
Fun fact: Rolex didn't make their first million watches until the mid fifties and the second million until the mind sixties. They suffered through the seventies, but their ultraconservative business model and lack of shareholders kept them fairly healthy. It was only in the eighties that things finally went mad.
The upshot of this is that prior to that, vintage Rolex are actually far less common than, say Omega. As such, It's hard imagine vintage ever taking much of a tumble and that is where the real value is. However, the modern stuff is both far more common and far less (relatively) special. The assumption of the sorts of (eventual) prices we see in old milSubs isn't right. there just are not enough old Rolex to go around even a far smaller pool of collectors. There are more than enough new Rolex to see substantial falls should they go even a little out of fashion. Rolex are managing that market extremely well, but they have always been masters of the brand.
Yep, you’ll generally need a purchase history too.
My personal feeling, things are going to get worse and worse in terms of pricing and availability.
You may need to consider grey market.
I'm giving up hope of getting 'the call' now before Christmas. I guess I need to make my peace with a 6% price increase as the calls are likely to start rolling in again in January.
This ^^^. Or start flying between Amsterdam, Dubai and London on a daily basis.
If you really like the watch buy Grey and suck up the price hike. It might be cheaper than waiting for the call especially with Rolex prices going up 6-9% every year.
In fact a better option might be to simply buy a pre-ceramic model. Better value and a better watch (IMHO).
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
This is not a conspiracy theory, it’s the basic principle of the luxury sector. It’s supply and demand at work, with high demand and restricted supply, which creates its own marketing campaign. That’s why some manufacturers would rather destroy stock than have a sale. Rolex is far from unique in this, they are just better at it.
The trick is to have a product that’s unique and desirable in the first place, and a brand that’s famous for being famous. What’s happened with Rolex is a spiral of increasing demand leading to falling supply, which in turn increases demand even more. It’s not unlike the panic buying of loo rolls during the pandemic, people see it’s running out and grab the last ones before it’s too late. The only question is how many can you sustainably sell per year, while still maintaining the impression of exclusivity. Not really a problem as a £5k+ wrist watch is never likely to be ubiquitous, but you don’t want the used market to tank either, so they’re wise to only produce as many as the new and used market will take, all the while slowly increasing prices and gradually changing the models, but not too much. The main thing is not to kill the golden goose by selling too many in the short term.
Last edited by Itsguy; 15th December 2020 at 12:47.
Right - this forum warps people's view of what people are spending on a watch - I haven't checked it for a way but a couple of years ago the average price was about £85.
Excellent post. Hopefully one day the message will sink home that Rolex are, at this moment in time, implementing a strategy of making their watches more exclusive by reducing supply and increasing prices above inflation. Rolex are do not want the sort of customer who comes in one day to the AD and negotiates a discount only to have to sell it when he wants a new car or whatever, his sort give the brand a tacky image.
They want the guy who comes in, who buys the watch without worrying too much about the price and when he has had enough of it, he will bung it to one of his family members so the market is not flowing with second hand stuff.
Rightly or wrongly it's going to be about exclusivity from now on.
I love Micks' posts, 'His sort give the brand a tacky image' and all the nasty looking precious metal and jewelled ones don't or the Estate Agents and City Boys of yesteryear didn't...
I mean hell to me their own new dayglo colour scheme for the OP's looks pretty naff and tacky, I don't think I'm alone in thinking that either.
Last edited by Passenger; 15th December 2020 at 13:02.
Having a tacky dig at me doesn't change the fact that the Rolex brand is changing and you have just got to learn to live with it. You may or may not like it but it is happening.I love Micks' posts, 'His sort give the brand a tacky image' and all the nasty looking precious metal and jewelled ones don't or the Estate Agents and City Boys of yesteryear didn't...
I mean hell to me their own new dayglo colour scheme for the OP's looks pretty naff and tacky, I don't think I'm alone in thinking that either.
PS All my Rolex are SS, I just feel YG is a step too far in the wrong direction.
It’s very difficult to know exactly how Rolex are engineering the market. We know that in 2015 Rolex effectively forced the COSC to stop providing data on how many movements each maker had certified. In that year Rolex had 800k movements certified, the following year all we know is that the COSC certified fewer movements so that would suggest that there was a cut in production in 2016 from Rolex. That makes sense, in 2015 I bought a Hulk from an AD’s window display after choosing it over a white faced Daytona and a black faced Daytona, also in the window. Hardly the image of exclusivity that a luxury brand wants to create demand.
Fast forward to the latest data and the COSC are again certifying record numbers of movements. We don’t know who they are for but historical analysis would suggest that Rolex are making more watches now than ever before, I would guess at about 1.1m per year. The split between models is probably the same but demand has increased across the board. I’ve spoken to a couple of AD’s and they suggest that it’s not demand for the popular models that has led to this, for every person who enquires about a sports model they get many more, mainly younger buyers, that walk in and just want a Rolex, ideally one that they’ve seen on the wrist of a celebrity but, if not available, any Rolex will do. That’s why the likes of the DJ, OP and Air King are now so hard to get.
The bubble for those models will inevitably end, there will likely be far fewer younger buyers in the market over the next couple of years and fashions change. I can’t see the bubble for sports models ending any time soon, they’re produced in smaller numbers so can handle a small drop in demand plus the demand for these is largely coming from a different market.
But it wasn't at you, though it was at your turn of phrase and it was at the brand and what it's historical connotations were/are, the blingy models they still make and how they've chosen to move the OP on...Heck I quite fancied a 39 OP probably white or maybe grey, IF they'd had one in the shop I visited in Florida around last New Year I'd have bought it without worrying about the price, but they didn't have them in stock, now they've mucked about with the model and possible knock on impact on the previous models used prices, Ad's require charming/bribing etc and so on...it's too much agita for me to bother with, guess I wasn't the right sort.
But I'm happy you are happy with your'uns.
Hope Mrs' Mick is doing well btw.
Thanks, Mrs Mick is improving and is in remarkably good spirits. The guess is that she will make a good recovery but it will take several months. The aim is to get her back into the Spanish sun late next year.But it wasn't at you, though it was at your turn of phrase and it was at the brand and what it's historical connotations were/are, the blingy models they still make and how they've chosen to move the OP on...Heck I quite fancied a 39 OP probably white or maybe grey, IF they'd had one in the shop I visited in Florida around last New Year I'd have bought it without worrying about the price, but they didn't have them in stock, now they've mucked about with the model and possible knock on impact on the previous models used prices, Ad's require charming/bribing etc and so on...it's too much agita for me to bother with, guess I wasn't the right sort.
But I'm happy you are happy with your'uns.
Hope Mrs' Mick is doing well btw.
To be honest, my days of buying Rolex are over as I don't want too many eggs in one basket. I am currently looking out for a gold pocket watch but I only buy F2F and covid makes that somewhat difficult.
Very nice to hear she is doing well.
By keeping the MSRP artificially low and maintaining high demand. MSRP is not the price for everybody. It is the price for moneyed valued customers of the company and its ADs, the rest can buy at the real price with the greys.
The next frontier of financialized watches
https://www.theopencaseback.com/arti...lized-watches/
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