New Petrol and diesel cars banned in 9 yrs

[andy tims]

Aside from the charging infrastructure (distribution) investment required, I'd like to see some proper studies around the increased electrical capacity requirement.

OK - we're doing pretty well with wind & solar, but that's not available all the time and our rate of delivering new nuclear power stations is glacial.

The other big point for me is the that the batteries for EVs are currently completely unsustainable.

[Brian]

Yes , I agree, where is all this energy going to come from?

The knobheads got rid of nuclear development and most of the expertise lies in China now.

Will we have huge coal fired power or gas or biomass stations in the north generating power for the south? Oh so clean.

The North will be years behind as ever on infrastructure so wont be able to share in this new found cleanliness :-)


B

Oh yes and as Andy questions - where are all the rare earths coming from ?

And finally the chinese will just be laughing at us.

Politicians and technology rarely mix well in the UK

[Kirk280]

Someone mentioned queuing at petrol stations; the truth is if we could fill up at home people would hardly go to their nearest forecourt. The same is true of EVs.

We need a balanced portfolio of sustainable energy. Electric cars are part of that picture. Some transport sectors are harder to decarbonise, such as HGVs and aircraft, leaving plenty of opportunities for nice, clean next-generation biofuels (blatant professional plug).

[Dynam0humm]

The government received £27.5 billion in fuel duty in 19/20.

It'll be interesting to see how they'll recoup that if we're all driving milk floats.

[Dave+63]

The government received £27.5 billion in fuel duty in 19/20.

It'll be interesting to see how they'll recoup that if we're all driving milk floats.

They’ll certainly find a way!

[RJM25R]

It's not the infrastructure but it's the cost.

EV unless they come down in price won't be affordable to most people.(I won't even consider one myself as they are stupid prices for what they are)

Low income families who need a car to get to work just about manage to afford a £500 Fiesta/Corsa etc and no way they could afford one of these.

Thank godness the target of 2030 will never be met...more chance of meeting this target than walking into a Rolex shop and buying a watch.

Along those lines, painters and decorators/builders/double glazing fitters/roofers/auto electricians/brickies/plasterers/plumbers/gas engineers (other trades are available) ain’t gonna be buying £40k vans when they can buy a 5 year old transit for f-all that they’re nut bothered about dinging up.

Then you’ve got all the HGV’s’!


For personal transport, the Smart 4/2 or 4/4 is a BRILLIANT solution, 60 mile range/free wall box/nice to drive/quite stylish.

But they are £23k!

£3k grant, yeah! So real price is £20k or £250-300 a month with a small/medium deposit and yet we hardly sell any. Why? Because you can get a 12 month old A180 AMGline for the same monthly..... and that’s when people put their money where their mouth is.

[adrianw]

I really don’t understand you Adrian. I have huge respect for your knowledge of motor racing and therefore cars in general but you really seem to be blind to the benefits of EVs.

In five and a half years of driving an EV, I haven’t once missed using a petrol station. I’ve had to charge away from home on very few occasions and only once had a prob at a rapid charger. A tesla was charging and on 50% so I moved on to the next one ten miles away.

Charging an EV is not and never will be, anything like using a filling station. People won’t need to use a charge station to anywhere near the extent that they use filling stations.

We do have an electric Jag, my wife loves it, I've driven it a few times, but the reality is it never goes far. On the other hand i have friends who have electric cars who go a lot further afield and are constantly using apps or driving round to try and find charge points, usually because either the car is not achieving anything like the predicted range or forecourt chargers are out of order.

This will be a huge infrastructure project, in both electricity generation and commissioning chargers, with our governments sticking their heads in the sand and expecting private companies to pick up the baton, one way or the other the motorist is going to end up paying for this. Then there is the environmental impact of producing the vehicles and the infrastructure, this has more to do with social engineering and business than it has to do with saving the environment, if there was any sincerity they need to stop perpetuating the use of the single owner car and look properly at public transport.

[Roberto]

Aside from the charging infrastructure (distribution) investment required, I'd like to see some proper studies around the increased electrical capacity requirement.

It's a real shame we can't charge them with hot air. There's no shortage of that.

[Dave+63]

Along those lines, painters and decorators/builders/double glazing fitters/roofers/auto electricians/brickies/plasterers/plumbers/gas engineers (other trades are available) ain’t gonna be buying £40k vans when they can buy a 5 year old transit for f-all that they’re nut bothered about dinging up.

I don’t know what it’s like up your way anymore Rick, but down here I see lots of new £40k ICE vans all nicely sign written.

I’m also seeing a lot of new Nissan electric vans about. When I got mine in 2015 I saw only two others in the first year (and one of them was British Gas). Now I see at least one a week. Granted, they’re only £25k new though.

[mjc1216]

I don’t know what it’s like up your way anymore Rick, but down here I see lots of new £40k ICE vans all nicely sign written.

I’m also seeing a lot of new Nissan electric vans about. When I got mine in 2015 I saw only two others in the first year (and one of them was British Gas). Now I see at least one a week. Granted, they’re only £25k new though.

That's the problem...another idea from central govt that dosen't understand much outside the M25(Yes the B word proved that)

No it's not all cobbled roads and flat caps but the reality is they are far too expensive and may be in 10 years they will be part of the solution.

Also when you drill down they are not as green as people make out.

I think hydrogen will be the way forward for light vehicles/LGV etc.

My solution is to buy a vehicle just before the cut off either petrol or petrol/hybrid and i will be long dead before i need a replacement.

[Dave+63]

I’d really love to know where all this cheap hydrogen is going to come from.

I guess there must be a limitless supply somewhere!

And before anyone says it, I know it’s the most abundant element on the planet but it’s also the most reactive so isn’t in its pure form.

[Brighty]

I’d really love to know where all this cheap hydrogen is going to come from.

I guess there must be a limitless supply somewhere!

And before anyone says it, I know it’s the most abundant element on the planet but it’s also the most reactive so isn’t in its pure form.

Well, you can extract it from fossil fuels......

Or make it from water using a hydrogen generator, which could be based at (what was) petrol stations.
Problem is, it needs shed loads of electricity to extract it, so we're back to needing lots of diesel powered power stations again

[noTAGlove]

Well, you can extract it from fossil fuels......

Or make it from water using a hydrogen generator, which could be based at (what was) petrol stations.
Problem is, it needs shed loads of electricity to extract it, so we're back to needing lots of diesel powered power stations again

Green hydrogen - made using renewable energy, so in theory no fossil fuels used.

Blue hydrogen - made using fossil fuels but carbon dioxide is sequestrated, so no emissions.

[RJM25R]

I don’t know what it’s like up your way anymore Rick, but down here I see lots of new £40k ICE vans all nicely sign written.

I’m also seeing a lot of new Nissan electric vans about. When I got mine in 2015 I saw only two others in the first year (and one of them was British Gas). Now I see at least one a week. Granted, they’re only £25k new though.

No arguing at all, there’s plenty up here on lease/PCP as you say when they are £25k and £300 a month but when they are £50k and £600 a month....

[uptheaddicks]

Out of interest, would anyone here BUY a current generation electric vehicle, especially with a view to keeping it long term?

Absolutely not.
Current generation (great pun OP!) electric cars are ridiculously expensive, eg look at the price of say, a Hyundai Kona electric compared to a Kona petrol. Its over double the price.
I have to drive a 400 mile round trip in a day so most electrics are of no use for that as there are not enough hours in the day to hang a round charging points.
I read an article in the Hate Mail the other day saying the Govt will plug the tax gap which will come from the loss of fuel duty by road charging electric vehicles FFS!

[Taxboy]

Looking through this thread there are many valid and interesting points. However I do think that we need to legislate to move to greener transport and this will be the driver for change. If we simply keep it as an aim all that will happen is it will get talked about endlessly with lots of hand wringing about the environment and ultimately little change will happen.

The only analogy I can think of is the end of traditional light bulbs. When this was announced there was much angst and people claiming they would be sitting in the gloom forever. I accept the first iterations of the "new" low energy bulbs were less than optimal. However the manufacturers improved the technology and now does anyone want to go back to a traditional light bulb? I accept this was a much smaller step than phasing out the ICE but without legal change would the driver have been so strong to improve the technology

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[Rodder]

Costs for EV are only going to go up! The demand for lithium is ever increasing and so is the price. The stuff that’s left is harder to mine and the environmental impacts are huge. This is a terrible idea and is simply not possible.

[Taxboy]

Costs for EV are only going to go up! The demand for lithium is ever increasing and so is the price. The stuff that’s left is harder to mine and the environmental impacts are huge. This is a terrible idea and is simply not possible.

Unless this acts as a driver for alternative materials to put in batteries

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[Alansmithee]

Given unless I've missed understood something - hybrids will still be on sale until 2035 (and that could be pushed back) - we are looking at least 20 years before it's all electric.... so some of the alarmist stuff on here seems a bit odd.

[wileeeeeey]

Costs for EV are only going to go up! The demand for lithium is ever increasing and so is the price. The stuff that’s left is harder to mine and the environmental impacts are huge. This is a terrible idea and is simply not possible.

Sounds like bitcoin in a way.

[Kingstepper]

I don’t disagree and the infrastructure will need constant improvement. It’s changed radically in the five years I’ve been driving.

My daughter bought an EV before she moved in to her house and managed to keep her car charged without access to a home charger. It’s doable today and as uptake of EVs continues, so will infrastructure improvements.

There are many many possible solutions for charging as electricity is almost everywhere and at worst, you can charge off any three pin socket.

Doable isn’t good enough and it isn’t for everyone. Where are all these public 3 pin sockets? Sponging off friends/neighbours? Extension leads across pavements?

It’s likely to cost those who can’t charge at home a premium - an extra cost for those in flats or other smaller properties.

[Dave+63]

Doable isn’t good enough and it isn’t for everyone. Where are all these public 3 pin sockets? Sponging off friends/neighbours? Extension leads across pavements?

It’s likely to cost those who can’t charge at home a premium - an extra cost for those in flats or other smaller properties.

Doable was entirely good enough; she always had enough charge in her battery to cover the Mike’s she needed to do.

I don’t have the answers but I am confident that the solutions will be in place in good time. There is another nine years and things are changing rapidly.

I agreed that it’s likely to cost a premium for those who can’t charge at home but we all pay a premium for petrol/diesel currently because we don’t have refineries in our homes. What’s the difference?

In ten years time however, it’s entirely possible that a large percentage of the population choose to use autonomous, shared vehicles rather than own their own cars, who knows?

Playing devils advocate; the question of whether anyone who has nowhere to keep it, should actually be allowed to own a vehicle? Why should people be allowed to leave them on public property without paying for the privilege? It’s controversial but an interesting topic for discussion.

[Dougal]

The aim is to stop the sales of new ICE vehicles by 2030.

Ah, but is it stopping all ICE vehicles or merely ICE cars?

While there's more than a few electric cars already on the market, it' s not the same situation with electric motorcycles. I've yet to see an electric motorbike on my local roads. (Not that 'bikes pollute as much as cars, I imagine.)

[33JS]

Wonder what'll happen to all of the leftover petrol?

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[Rodder]

Unless this acts as a driver for alternative materials to put in batteries

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Agreed, there’s no doubt the end of the combustion end is near. But it’s a terrible idea financially and environmentally for the Government to interfere in free market economics

[Kingstepper]

Doable was entirely good enough; she always had enough charge in her battery to cover the Mike’s she needed to do.

I don’t have the answers but I am confident that the solutions will be in place in good time. There is another nine years and things are changing rapidly.

I agreed that it’s likely to cost a premium for those who can’t charge at home but we all pay a premium for petrol/diesel currently because we don’t have refineries in our homes. What’s the difference?

In ten years time however, it’s entirely possible that a large percentage of the population choose to use autonomous, shared vehicles rather than own their own cars, who knows?

Playing devils advocate; the question of whether anyone who has nowhere to keep it, should actually be allowed to own a vehicle? Why should people be allowed to leave them on public property without paying for the privilege? It’s controversial but an interesting topic for discussion.

Good for her, she's probably the minority.

Things aren't changing rapidly. Believe couple of years ago in a similar thread you suggested wireless charging would be coming. Any progress on this? Of course not. Same as autonomous vehicles, won't be common in 10 years.

Who pays a premium for fuel now? We all pay (roughly) the same. Plenty of people don't keep a car on the road or their property - for example, communal parking for flats. All of this is very divisive, only the rich with drives can afford to keep cars and have cheap electricity.

- - - Updated - - -

Ah, but is it stopping all ICE vehicles or merely ICE cars?

While there's more than a few electric cars already on the market, it' s not the same situation with electric motorcycles. I've yet to see an electric motorbike on my local roads. (Not that 'bikes pollute as much as cars, I imagine.)

No, has been said, cars and vans.

[Pitfitter]

I read an article in the Hate Mail the other day saying the Govt will plug the tax gap which will come from the loss of fuel duty by road charging electric vehicles FFS!

Will there be a big increase in company car tax, or a new tax on vehicle purchases, fuel duty and RFL is spent on almost anything but roads.

[Dave+63]

Good for her, she's probably the minority.

No; she was using public chargers, anyone could do it!

Things aren't changing rapidly. Believe couple of years ago in a similar thread you suggested wireless charging would be coming. Any progress on this? Of course not. Same as autonomous vehicles, won't be common in 10 years.

I never said it would but I did say it could and I’m sure it will come in time, probably well before the ten years are up. Autonomous vehicles may or may not be commonplace within ten years but I believe car ownership will diminish and pay as you use car sharing will become more common. It’s just my opinion, I’ve not got a crystal ball!

Who pays a premium for fuel now? We all pay (roughly) the same. Plenty of people don't keep a car on the road or their property - for example, communal parking for flats. All of this is very divisive, only the rich with drives can afford to keep cars and have cheap electricity.

We all pay a premium; everybody; if we all had petrol/diesel piped to our houses in the same way as gas, those with drives would be able to fill up from hone a lot cheaper than those who needed a forecourt. We don’t so we all pay a premium to use the forecourt.

It’s my belief that within the next ten years, all the current issues will be resolved. I don’t look at what we have today as anything more than the current state of the situation. I know that what we have today isn’t suitable for mass uptake of EVs but as time goes by, the infrastructure and associated technologies will keep up with the volume of uptake.

[sprite1275]

So how big a wind turbine would you need on your roof for infinite power.

[Indio]

We are now on our second Nissan leaf over the last 5 years. We paid around about £230 upfront and £230 per month on a 3 year PCP. So around the same as a comparable petrol/diesel car. We have a charging point in our drive and the incremental electricity cost is negligible so the running cost is minimal. EVs are very reliable. With no engine, not much to go wrong.

I recognise infrastructure may be an issue for mass appeal, but Siemens and Ubercity recently converted lamp posts in a London street to EV charging points. That could be part of a solution?

https://thedriven.io/2020/03/24/siem...-car-chargers/

I saw a diesel transit van spewing black smoke out of the exhaust this afternoon and it saddened me to see the environmental damage it was doing. Not to mention all the oil spills, fracking issues etc. Not sustainable in the longer term IMHO.

I don't know anything about Hydrogen, but electric is certainly working for me. The cost of solar panels has come down so I am thinking of investing in some in due course.

[Peter franks]

Electric cars are the new diesel myth..

They sold us the diesel myth and we all bought it and then they punished us for it..

Anyone who thinks they won't do the same with EVs is an idiot ..

As has been asked but never answered is,
Where is all the electricity for these white elephants coming from? And where are the government going to claw back their enormous deficit in fuel duty?

Where are all the people who live in terraced houses or flats or tower blocks going to charge their cars?


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[PipPip]

The National Grid have stated publicly that electricity supply will be sufficient for all cars to be electric. Balancing the grid is more of a challenge and a model where cars plugged in at home act as mini storage devices and help balance the grid is the future goal. Many newer EVs already have this give back functionality in built. I’ve had EVs since 2014 and the growth in public charging infrastructure since then is astonishing. Look at ZapMap in your local area if you think there is no infrastructure, you might be surprised. Investment is already massive and it will ramp up exponentially now mainstream car manufacturers and oil companies are pumping money in.
Hydrogen is not the future. Sorry but people saying this are simply wrong. Hydrogen requires more power to produce, then needs storage and transportation. Then it is used fo power up a battery in the car. Totally inefficient and impractical compared with simply charging a battery directly using existing cabling, and already dismissed as a dead duck.
Tesla and others are reducing their use of rare minerals in their batteries every year. They are also driving improvements in mining standards, something the petrochemical companies that have exploited rare earth minerals for decades for refining have never done (don’t remember people up in arms about the behaviour of these companies, strange that?).
I’m very optimistic but as I’ve said I’m an EV owner and have read a lot about all the “issues” over the years. The lack of knowledge in the general public needs addressing. I’m disappointed the government aren’t doing more to educate people alongside this announcement. They seem to be leaving it to the Daily Mail, never a good strategy!
Having said all the above I think 2030 is probably unrealistic but it gives the various players involved something to aim for.

[RobDad]

Before moving to Norfolk we lived in a terraced street in South London. In the nearly 20 years we lived there (with just 1 small car between 2 adults and 2 children too young to drive) the number of cars skyrocketed, as none of the local teenagers could afford to leave home so nearly every house - with no drive, just room for 1 car in front - had 4 or 5 cars. The roads were choked with cars and if you drove anywhere you’d have to park 2 roads away from your house and usually you’d never get the car back into your road for a few days! How do electric cars work in places like that? - you can’t trail a wire across the pavement from your house even if you manage to park outside? I just don’t get it. Personally now I have a drive and a garage with an obvious place to put a charger, and a 12 mile commute to work I would consider an ev for my next car but for urban types it’s a non starter isn’t it?

[Omegamanic]

It all sounds like hot air to me, lots of fluffy rhetoric but nothing if any substance.

The BBC aren’t helping either, they’ve just compared a £27,000 Nissan Leaf with an £8,000 Dacia Sandero to prove that electric is 2 1/2 times the price of petrol!

Yes, electric is more expensive but FFS, compare like for like!

Are they not both the cheapest of their type by the same overall ownership?

[adrianw]

We are now on our second Nissan leaf over the last 5 years. We paid around about £230 upfront and £230 per month on a 3 year PCP. So around the same as a comparable petrol/diesel car. We have a charging point in our drive and the incremental electricity cost is negligible so the running cost is minimal. EVs are very reliable. With no engine, not much to go wrong.

I recognise infrastructure may be an issue for mass appeal, but Siemens and Ubercity recently converted lamp posts in a London street to EV charging points. That could be part of a solution?

https://thedriven.io/2020/03/24/siem...-car-chargers/

I saw a diesel transit van spewing black smoke out of the exhaust this afternoon and it saddened me to see the environmental damage it was doing. Not to mention all the oil spills, fracking issues etc. Not sustainable in the longer term IMHO.

I don't know anything about Hydrogen, but electric is certainly working for me. The cost of solar panels has come down so I am thinking of investing in some in due course.

Where do you think all that plastic in your new car came from?

[PipPip]

Before moving to Norfolk we lived in a terraced street in South London. In the nearly 20 years we lived there (with just 1 small car between 2 adults and 2 children too young to drive) the number of cars skyrocketed, as none of the local teenagers could afford to leave home so nearly every house - with no drive, just room for 1 car in front - had 4 or 5 cars. The roads were choked with cars and if you drove anywhere you’d have to park 2 roads away from your house and usually you’d never get the car back into your road for a few days! How do electric cars work in places like that? - you can’t trail a wire across the pavement from your house even if you manage to park outside? I just don’t get it. Personally now I have a drive and a garage with an obvious place to put a charger, and a 12 mile commute to work I would consider an ev for my next car but for urban types it’s a non starter isn’t it?

Over 60% of car owners have a driveway. For the 40% you are talking a out their cars are all parked somewhere most of their life and most will do an average of 200 miles a week. The challenge is to get enough chargers nearby on the street, in car parks, in gyms, supermarkets, at work etc, i.e. wherever else those cars are sat parked 23 hours a day so that they can be charged up once a week for those 200 miles. With rapid DC chargers currently you are looking at an hour of charging a week for most of these cars. In a decade who knows, maybe 20 minutes a week. Challenging, yes. A non-starter, I don’t think so. This is the main reason why I think it will take a good few decades.

[Russ]

I can only imagine petrol and diesel vehicle sales being quite healthy over 2028 and 2029. Maybe even a Rolex style shortage to be had. The sales people will certainly hit their targets before we're pitched into the future, I hope it's better than I think it's going to be.

[Pitfitter]

I asked a mate in car sales about this, he thinks that manufacturers may have to drop petrol/diesel production in order to create space to build EVs, if battery production ramps up and if the demand is there. At current prices he can't see the demand, there is interest until prospective customers compare prices, yes we all know that running costs are different but the average punter does not see it that way, "Trust a car salesman word!" not happening yet.

[Taxboy]

I understand the arguments around infrastructure but for those who are saying EVs are not the answer, what alternative solution do we go with. Doing nothing and keeping the satus quo isn't an option and all alternatives to diesel / petrol will require massive investment in that particular infrastructure, which will require buy in from car and energy suppliers

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[chrisparker]

Wonder what'll happen to all of the leftover petrol?

Burned to generate electric power.

[Dave+63]

I can only imagine petrol and diesel vehicle sales being quite healthy over 2028 and 2029. Maybe even a Rolex style shortage to be had. The sales people will certainly hit their targets before we're pitched into the future, I hope it's better than I think it's going to be.

I don’t think so; I believe that by then, most people will have realised how much better electric is and will no more want petrol diesel than they want steam.

Just my opinion and I could be wrong but I think they’ll be struggling to shift the leftover ICE vehicles.

[chrisparker]

Things I’m certain of in the next decade:

EVs will get cheaper
Amount of public charging points will increase
Vehicle range will increase
Changing time will decrease.

There could also be legalised self driving cars which will be adopted by Uber, bringing down the cost of taxi travel, reducing the need for many to own a car.

We could also see an emergency standard battery cell that could be swapped out quickly in all cars. For example you drive to a filling station and swap out an empty cell for a charged one - no need to wait for charging. Something that could give 50 mile range to get you home would do the job.

New homes and buildings should be able to generate their own electricity so have less impact on the national grid.

[Taxboy]

Burned to generate electric power.

Or sold to countries that have a higher demand

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[Dave+63]

Things I’m certain of in the next decade:

EVs will get cheaper
Amount of public charging points will increase
Vehicle range will increase
Changing time will decrease.

There could also be legalised self driving cars which will be adopted by Uber, bringing down the cost of taxi travel, reducing the need for many to own a car.

We could also see an emergency standard battery cell that could be swapped out quickly in all cars. For example you drive to a filling station and swap out an empty cell for a charged one - no need to wait for charging. Something that could give 50 mile range to get you home would do the job.

New homes and buildings should be able to generate their own electricity so have less impact on the national grid.

I agree with all of the above.
I was going to disagree about changing the battery because I thought it wasn’t feasible to change batteries but if there was a small, standardised, additional battery that could be swapped out then it’s definitely a possibility. It could also be a solution for those without the opportunity to charge at home.

[TheTigerUK]

I can still remember when diesel was half the price of petrol but once many of us started using it looked what happened to the price, will the same happen to electricity we use in our cars some how ?

[Dave+63]

I can still remember when diesel was half the price of petrol but once many of us started using it looked what happened to the price, will the same happen to electricity we use in our cars some how ?

The government will recoup the lost revenue from petrol/diesel. How they do it is anyone’s guess but I think it’ll be on a pay per mile basis with data being sent directly from the car.

We are living in a golden era for cheap EV ownership right now, it won’t last forever!

[33JS]

I can still remember when diesel was half the price of petrol but once many of us started using it looked what happened to the price, will the same happen to electricity we use in our cars some how ?

If only they could change the tariffs for when cars are being charged, mostly overnight....

Oh, I know, let's roll out someting called Smart meters...

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[Chinnock]

Good luck generating sufficient electricity to cope with demand, without further destroying the planet.

This is just political puff to keep millennial voters on side.

[kas9t82]

Ah, but is it stopping all ICE vehicles or merely ICE cars?

While there's more than a few electric cars already on the market, it' s not the same situation with electric motorcycles. I've yet to see an electric motorbike on my local roads. (Not that 'bikes pollute as much as cars, I imagine.)

Ehh??? There are loads of them, they actualy make more sense practicaly wise than cars, due to the practicality of charging & some having sawapable battery packs. Again it comes down to costs & the good ole British climate as to the low take up percentage wise + the roads are so dangerous due to idiot drivers that motorcycles have become a "niche". Motorcycle use is nothing like it was 30yrs ago.
Below is a review of the "trendies".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=my-2gqg8CN8

[Alansmithee]

Good luck generating sufficient electricity to cope with demand, without further destroying the planet.

This is just political puff to keep millennial voters on side.

Your periodic reminder that many millennials are old enough to have kids at University rather than being kids.