Taken in the context of 45,000+ Covid deaths (minimum), I don't imagine it does. It just sounds like those with blood on their hands trying to muddy the waters.Originally Posted by jaytip
I don't think we'll ever hear anything related to this ever again It's a desperate red herring.
You don't think the fact that death certificates (and hence statistics) don't correctly reflect the actual cause of deaths is relevant?
Because of the nature of the recording error, this is an issue which will become increasingly significant and relevant over time.
Well the pubs and restaurants have been open for more than a month and there's been no sign of any "blow back".
I've been eating out two three times a week, and that was before the august eat out offer. Plus i help run a busy members club in Soho and visiting friends pubs and bars several times a night and it's all pretty relaxed. ........ Mind you, my mates Peter and Nick aren't very happy, they both have "gentlemans" clubs, the girls are desperate to get back to work but at the moment, for obvious reasons that isn't possible :D
Last edited by steptoe; 12th August 2020 at 12:51.
What evidence have you got that someone dying in a car accident, that has previously recovered from Covid, has Covid recorded as the cause of death on the death certificate? It sounds fanciful to me that this would happen more than a tiny amount of times.
This so-called 'recording issue' will become no more relevant over time because, beyond its significance as Daily Mail clickbait, I think the precentage is tiny. PHE know this, and the government know this.
I don't think we'll hear any more of it because any anomaly will be one among many and will be so insignicant as to be not worth mentioning among the final massive death toll.
What are you talking about. It’s come out as fact that that is the way PHE record deaths. If someone is diagnosed positive with covid-19, then 100% recovers from it and then dies by ANY other means, then Covid-19 is still put down on the death certificate. This is not me wearing a tin foil hat, Matt Hancock ordered an urgent inquiry into what they described as an anomaly in the way covid deaths are recorded in England.
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PHE don't have any input whatsoever on what goes on the death certificate. You're confusing how they calculated deaths with what goes on the death certificate.
He isn’t and he’s completely correct, it will come out soon that deaths will be at record low for all other diseases whilst Covid has happened, almost nobody died from anything other than Covid recently
We're playing it safe. Hospitality wages are typically down near minimum and many of those earning that do not have much spare cash. "I'm feeling a bit rough this morning but I'd better go in to work, the car's MoT is due next week".
As other's have said, I don't need a meal out that much.
This guy? I wonder if he ordered an urgent inquiry or a semi urgent enquiry.
https://twitter.com/SoozUK/status/12...168795137?s=20
Another 'future fact''? There seems to be a lot of those around.
I said this:
You quoted me and responded with this:
That's not how death certificates work...PHE do not have any input with the writing of a death certificate.
I'm not saying that perhaps some doctors may have potentially knee-jerked to writing COVID-19 when it wasn't in fact that, but that isn't what the OP was stating. PHE have nothing directly to do with the writing of death certificates.
There is some incorrect information being peddled here and I just want to clarify as someone who has completed a number of these over the years.
See below for an example of the certificate we are expected to complete when a patient under our care dies.
You will see that there are a number of lines that can possibly be completed under 'cause of death' (this is where the confusion is coming from) and we are expected to mention any relevant physical health conditions that contributed to death. As most of the Covid deaths occurred in patients with pre-existing health conditions, i.e. older folk who had chronic illnesses, it's not unexpected that Covid might have found its way on to the form.
I'll give you an example:
An 86 year-old female with congestive cardiac failure caught Covid in a care home and passed away. Both would be recorded on the death certificate as they are both implicated in the death. It hard to grasp but the body is a complex machine and its systems are integrated and depend on each other to maintain a kind of internal stability. Infection messes around with this delicate balance and if one part of the system is already weakened and struggling, it can knock the whole thing over so to speak. The end result is known as death.
There will be lots of Covid appearing on death certificates in people who would probably otherwise have died anyway, or be about to die at some point in the near future from exactly those chronic health conditions such as congestive cardiac failure, or any cancer, or chronic respiratory illness, the list is endless. Not all countries record death in the same way, so be careful drawing any international comparisons.
Back to the point in hand - I had an excellent curry last night and enjoyed the taxpayers' contribution, so thanks all.
Last edited by j0hnbarker; 12th August 2020 at 14:59.
Here you go.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no...tical-anomaly/
Edit: sorry for the thread hijack, I won’t be taking it off topic anymore.
I hope you'll be as understanding if your company makes you (or family) redundant because of the recession.
Your choice, of course, but rather "I'm alright, Jack'.
M
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Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
No where in your link does it mention anything to do with death certificates; the article and issue it discusses is entirely about how PHE record the cases and nothing whatsoever to do with death certificates.
And I assume that you would be equally as understanding if you (or family) contracts and/or dies of Covid-19, caught from somebody who isn't following safe practice?
That's the problem with the attitude of "I'm willing to take the risk" - you're not just taking a risk on behalf of yourself, you're also taking it on behalf of everybody that you come into contact with, and everybody that they come into contact with, and...
I did say I wouldn’t take this off topic again (sorry OP)
Ok, my bad, forget the death certificates, my point is the Covid-19 death figures are falsely inflated due to the way PHE records Covid-19 deaths.
It’s there in the link I provided.
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Glad we're now on the same page, and yes you are correct, and they have admitted this. No method is truly perfect though. That being said, I suspect that the over-estimation caused by this particular method they used will proportionately be nigh on insignificant in the scheme of things - it will doubtless be the subject of numerous retrospective studies, so it'll be interesting to see the findings.
One useful outcome from what is going on at the moment is that for any future outbreaks of any sort, we are learning all the time what does and doesn't work.
I paid a visit to my local Wetherspoon for lunch on Monday (my first pub trip since March) - it wasn't over-crowded, one way system in place, good distancing of tables, tables etc. being wiped regularly and they participate in the eat out to help out scheme/promotion (Sunak's Specials) so two meals and two pints came to £8.40 after the discount.
Further beers were consumed, apparently discounted because it was Monday but even further once CAMRA discounts were applied
Last edited by Stanford; 12th August 2020 at 18:02.
Her cooking has improved and my bank balance better off. I won’t agree or insist on eating out any time soon. Need the money in my back as we are heading into some very dark time’s!
What is the criteria for you coming out of hiding? Zero COVID 19 cases? Your going to have a really shit time for the foreseeable future.
And if we don't go out, there'll be nowhere left to go anyway.
Even if you don't live longer, it will certainly feel like it.
Perhaps some people can pass on a 'meal' at Nando's and a beer in the pub, in order to hopefully not spread the virus any further than necessary. Others think the risk is worth it.
I haven't been to any fast food 'restaurants' or pubs and I'm not having a 'really shit time' to be honest. In fact I'd count going to Nandos and some of the places mentioned as 'a really shit time'.
We have takeaways delivered so not really missing out in my opinion.
Everyone has their own ways of getting through this, one man's meat........is another man's poison.
Last edited by oldoakknives; 12th August 2020 at 23:38.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Staycation for myself and family next week on North Antrim Coast ( Londonderry coat as well for the pedants amongst us ). Looking at the menus online, some establishments are having a laugh, higher prices on mon/tue/wed. Taking the proverbial imho.
Needless to say we will give them a miss.
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That’s almost a ridiculous thing to say. If you are vulnerable fair enough but most people won’t get the virus, if they, do they won’t die and most will barely have symptoms. Meanwhile more people have dies from influenza than CV in last 8 weeks and more are dying from the lockdown.
The economy is shot and as a result far more people will die.
We didn’t actually go into Eastbourne, but had a cracking lunch a few miles inland at the Eight Bells in Jevington. Highly recommended.
Edited it, so you can understand.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
How many people have died from influenza in the last 8 weeks?
How many people have died from the lockdown in the last month, and how do you measure the number?
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
I agree with Oaky (is that a first?) if you feel it’s not for you in the current situation then don’t. Eating out is meant to be a pleasurable experience and i’ll Wait until it’s right for me, my partner and the situation we are in right now.
Not wanting to go into details but our priority is hospital visits/diagnosis and then after that long battle is over getting some/work and money in. TBH we will probably order some posh fish online and a nice bottle and treat ourselves that way.
The couple of independent restaurants we would like to visit I notice are fully booked with their limited indoor space and outdoor BBQ/drinks. My local cafe are doing ok and selling wine/sourdough/beer as well as coffee, I bought £30 of vouchers at the beginning of lockdown.
They will get my custom again at some point.
Could murder some proper fish and chips though, that might be the first time I venture onto the high st.
Between June 19th and July 31st (latest figures I have ONS) 6626 died of flu, compared to 2992 from corona virus.
Why do you ask?
I don’t know and it can’t be directly measured at the moment. When we look back and examine the increase in deaths such as cancer which have not been diagnosed and suicides etc etc we will get a better idea.
We don’t know how many people have died from CV - only yesterday they took 5000 off the total. For the vast majority of the population CV is a minor ailment and “we” (in general) shouldn’t be afraid of it. By all means protect the people that are vulnerable but let’s get schools back, hospitality opened and try and protect as many jobs as we can. There is no magic money pot and our children and grandchildren are going to be paying for this.
Do you have a link to those figures?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/trans...ovid19pandemic
Last edited by oldoakknives; 13th August 2020 at 07:52.
So you have no idea how many “are dying from the lockdown”.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Presumably you’ve seen the figures have now been amended to reflect the anomaly.
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That number of flu deaths is unbelievably high for a summer period with all the precautions now in place.
Average YEARLY flu deaths are 17,000 in England https://fullfact.org/health/coronavi...are-influenza/.
I ask because I don’t believe your statement that more have died from fly than Covid in the past 8 weeks.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...isional/latest
- - - Updated - - -
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...isional/latest
Last edited by craig1912; 13th August 2020 at 08:06.
I think I made that clear- nobody does, but what will become obvious is the number of unnecessary deaths caused by our inability to handle this pandemic as well as we could.
- - - Updated - - -
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest
This isn’t a link to the actual figures you quoted.
Last edited by oldoakknives; 13th August 2020 at 08:20.
Your original post didn’t make that clear at all. And quoted figures which haven’t yet been substantiated.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
ONS has attempted to quantify the deaths associated with lockdown measures here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statemen...tyandmorbidity
I was surprised how little this piece of analysis was reported last week.
Life's full of risks, but you can't hide from it forever.
90% roughly of people getting seriously ill or dying with Covid have serious underlying health issues.
If you, or close people, are in that category, it makes sense to take extra precautions, but we're all already taking precautions even going out (you're more likely to get exposed in the supermarket than a restaurant, where you are kept a safe distance from others).
No one likes to think they played a part on the death of a relative, but I don't recall this level of concern about flu...
M
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Last edited by snowman; 13th August 2020 at 08:42.
Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
Doesn’t substantiate your figures.
I understood perfectly Oaky old boy. Whatever gets you through this is no business of ours.Edited it, so you can understand.
Perhaps because it’s guesswork.
“Estimating the impacts of coronavirus on England’s mortality and morbidity”
“Today, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) released a paper estimating the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on England’s mortality and morbidity.”
Last edited by oldoakknives; 13th August 2020 at 14:06.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Of course you did.I understood perfectly Oaky old boy. Whatever gets you through this is no business of ours.
“Oaky old boy”?
More silliness. Pal. Mate.
Last edited by oldoakknives; 13th August 2020 at 10:04.
Is this your own guesstimate or is it based on official figures?
I don't believe anyone really knows the true extent to which Covid has had a direct effect on our, or any other country's, death/mortality rate and if they say they do they are talking out of their arris...and trying to make direct comparisons with other countries where causes of death are not recorded identically seems pretty pointless.
It is form the Office of National Statistics. It's actually slightly higher than 9 out of 10.
Article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783
The actual report: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...inginmarch2020
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