SARS epidemic was 2002 to 2004 so burn out was 3 years.Originally Posted by miguelh34
If you are using Tapatalk (apologies but judging by the quality of your wit I wasn't sure if you had the intellectual horsepower to use mobile apps or not) there is an option to go into my profile and at the top right select ignore/block. Please do so.
Last edited by ryanb741; 24th May 2020 at 00:10.
Cheers prof
No problem, despite the evident antagonism in your tone.
BTW one of the challenges the Oxford Vaccine researchers are having is that Covid is decreasing so quickly in the UK it becomes every harder to get meaningful results as to how effective the vaccine is and show protective the effects are.
No. There are many millions of us all doing just the same as you.
Evidence / link?
I won't sorry as I've done this before and had unjustified criticism so people can do their own research if they are interested and want to catch up. If it helps and you are genuinely interested in finding this out (as opposed to trying to find a way to undermine my statement by intimating it was a sweeping one not backed up by evidence), do a google search for a statement by Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University for starters. He will assert that they are taking the trials into the hospital environments due to not enough virus going round in society to test effectively the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine.
Anyway that's it for now - I stopped posting on the dedicated Covid threads because they were getting a bit heated and antagonistic and already I've had 2 people come back with sarcastic remarks to a post I put on this thread and your response was 2 blunt words and so clearly it was a mistake to start discussing the topic again. Best leave it for people to come to their own conclusions and I can refocus on watches again as Covid is clearly becoming the new Brexit.
Last edited by ryanb741; 24th May 2020 at 01:30.
It was a genuine question mate, I’d be interested to see the evidence as it would be encouraging if true.
Great and interesting thread please keep studying and researching and giving us the good information.It good to have some better news after a particularly bad week with several close family friends dying suddenly (non Corona related) other family issues and relationship problems
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SWMBO does this and it so bl**dy irritating! She does nothing but moan it's taking an hour to put the shopping away and we end up with a couple of bag fulls in the spare room in quarantine :-( Mail has to sit on the floor in the hall for three days. Drives me mad!!!
IMHO total rubbish!
What’s with motorists wearing masks when there’s nobody else in the vehicle?
People cannot think with any logic or reason.
If I was feeling generous I might suggest that they put them on before leaving home to ensure they don't forget them at the end of their journey.
We don't disinfect shopping or post - Seems OTT to me, but what you do in your own home is up to you.
I was going to say if you've been out and bought the shopping your risk was probably greater there, but I assume the OP and others disinfecting shopping are getting it delivered?
M
Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
Nothing has changed in my house, although i'm happy to use hand sanitiser when out with Mrs D as she suffers from anxiety and it makes her feel better if I do.
I wonder if this is also part of the issue with the IOW tracking app and the lack of updates on how it is going.
The IOW was never a hot bed of Covid anyway and I wonder if virtually no-one is triggering the app.
M
Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
Also see Pascal Soriot, CEO of AstraZeneca, on Marr this morning. He was also clear that there is a race to prove the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine which will not be possible unless enough of the 'control arm' of the clinical trial cohort go on to develop Covid-19. For that reason, the trial is being extended into Brazil and Russia.
I guess this will be disappointing for the science but I, for one, am not going to complain if the virus 'burns out' too quickly, just as long as it then stays burnt out.
I think it may be that they are usually on their way home from somewhere, shopping for instance, and dont want to inadvertently touch their face while driving.
I'm not one of them, haven't worn a mask at all, but for someone who has decided mask wearing is necessary this makes sense for them.
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Bit of alcohol gel on hands once the shopping's in the boot, unload it all at home then wash hands, and that's about it.
Post gets opened straight away, outer packaging thrown/recycled, then wash hands.
I don't have time for sterilising individual items or the whole shop. I think common sense can be applied in most cases and unless you're in one of the vulnerable groups, the paranoia isn't helpful.
This may be helpful - from a cardiologist.
"COVID-19 Update: as we start to leave our cocoons. The purpose of this post is to provide a perspective on the intense but expected anxiety so many people are experiencing as they prepare to leave the shelter of their homes. My opinions are not those of my employers and are not meant to invalidate anyone else’s – they simply are my perspective on managing risk.
In March, we did not know much about COVID-19 other than the incredibly scary news reports from overrun hospitals in China, Italy, and other parts of Europe. The media was filled with scary pictures of chest CT scans, personal stories of people who decompensated quickly with shortness of breath, overwhelmed health care systems, and deaths. We heard confusing and widely varying estimates for risk of getting infected and of dying – some estimates were quite high.
Key point #1: The COVID-19 we are facing now is the same disease it was 2 months ago. The “shelter at home” orders were the right step from a public health standpoint to make sure we flattened the curve and didn’t overrun the health care system which would have led to excess preventable deaths. It also bought us time to learn about the disease’s dynamics, preventive measures, and best treatment strategies – and we did. For hospitalized patients, we have learned to avoid early intubation, to use prone ventilation, and that remdesivir probably reduces time to recovery. We have learned how to best use and preserve PPE. We also know that several therapies suggested early on probably don’t do much and may even cause harm (ie, azithromycin, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir). But all of our social distancing did not change the disease. Take home: We flattened the curve and with it our economy and psyches, but the disease itself is still here.
Key point #2: COVID-19 is more deadly than seasonal influenza (about 5-10x so), but not nearly as deadly as Ebola, Rabies, or Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever where 25-90% of people who get infected die. COVID-19’s case fatality rate is about 0.8-1.5% overall, but much higher if you are 60-69 years old (3-4%), 70-79 years old (7-9%), and especially so if you are over 80 years old (CFR 13-17%). It is much lower if you are under 50 years old (<0.6%). The infection fatality rate is about half of these numbers. Take home: COVID-19 is dangerous, but the vast majority of people who get it, survive it. About 15% of people get very ill and could stay ill for a long time. We are going to be dealing with it for a long time.
Key point #3: SARS-CoV-2 is very contagious, but not as contagious as Measles, Mumps, or even certain strains of pandemic Influenza. It is spread by respiratory droplets and aerosols, not food and incidental contact. Take home: social distancing, not touching our faces, and good hand hygiene are the key weapons to stop the spread. Masks could make a difference, too, especially in public places where people congregate. Incidental contact is not really an issue, nor is food.
What does this all mean as we return to work and public life? COVID-19 is not going away anytime soon. It may not go away for a year or two and may not be eradicated for many years, so we have to learn to live with it and do what we can to mitigate (reduce) risk. That means being willing to accept *some* level of risk to live our lives as we desire. I can’t decide that level of risk for you – only you can make that decision. There are few certainties in pandemic risk management other than that fact that some people will die, some people in low risk groups will die, and some people in high risk groups will survive. It’s about probability.
Here is some guidance – my point of view, not judging yours:
1. People over 60 years old are at higher risk of severe disease – people over 70 years old, even more so. They should be willing to tolerate less risk than people under 50 years old and should be extra careful. Some chronic diseases like heart disease and COPD increase risk, but it is not clear if other diseases like obesity, asthma, immune disorders, etc. increase risk appreciably. It looks like asthma and inflammatory bowel disease might not be as high risk as we thought, but we are not sure - their risks might be too small to pick up, or they might be associated with things that put them at higher risk.
People over 60-70 years old probably should continue to be very vigilant about limiting exposures if they can. However, not seeing family – especially children and grandchildren – can take a serious emotional toll, so I encourage people to be creative and flexible. For example, in-person visits are not crazy – consider one, especially if you have been isolated and have no symptoms. They are especially safe in the early days after restrictions are lifted in places like Madison or parts of major cities where there is very little community transmission. Families can decide how much mingling they are comfortable with - if they want to hug and eat together, distance together with masks, or just stay apart and continue using video-conferencing and the telephone to stay in contact. If you choose to intermingle, remember to practice good hand hygiene, don’t share plates/forks/spoons/cups, don’t share towels, and don’t sleep together.
2. Social distancing, not touching your face, and washing/sanitizing your hands are the key prevention interventions. They are vastly more important than anything else you do. Wearing a fabric mask is a good idea in crowded public place like a grocery store or public transportation, but you absolutely must distance, practice good hand hygiene, and don’t touch your face. Wearing gloves is not helpful (the virus does not get in through the skin) and may increase your risk because you likely won’t washing or sanitize your hands when they are on, you will drop things, and touch your face.
3. Be a good citizen. If you think you might be sick, stay home. If you are going to cough or sneeze, turn away from people, block it, and sanitize your hands immediately after.
4. Use common sense. Dial down the anxiety. If you are out taking a walk and someone walks past you, that brief (near) contact is so low risk that it doesn’t make sense to get scared. Smile at them as they approach, turn your head away as they pass, move on. The smile will be more therapeutic than the passing is dangerous. Similarly, if someone bumps into you at the grocery store or reaches past you for a loaf of bread, don’t stress - it is a very low risk encounter, also - as long as they didn’t cough or sneeze in your face (one reason we wear cloth masks in public!).
5. Use common sense, part II. Dial down the obsessiveness. There really is no reason to go crazy sanitizing items that come into your house from outside, like groceries and packages. For it to be a risk, the delivery person would need to be infectious, cough or sneeze some droplets on your package, you touch the droplet, then touch your face, and then it invades your respiratory epithelium. There would need to be enough viral load and the virions would need to survive long enough for you to get infected. It could happen, but it’s pretty unlikely. If you want to have a staging station for 1-2 days before you put things away, sure, no problem. You also can simply wipe things off before they come in to your house - that is fine is fine too. For an isolated family, it makes no sense to obsessively wipe down every surface every day (or several times a day). Door knobs, toilet handles, commonly trafficked light switches could get a wipe off each day, but it takes a lot of time and emotional energy to do all those things and they have marginal benefits. We don’t need to create a sterile operating room-like living space. Compared to keeping your hands out of your mouth, good hand hygiene, and cleaning food before serving it, these behaviors might be more maladaptive than protective.
6. There are few absolutes, so please get comfortable accepting some calculated risks, otherwise you might be isolating yourself for a really, really long time. Figure out how you can be in public and interact with people without fear.
We are social creatures. We need each other. We will survive with and because of each other. Social distancing just means that we connect differently. Being afraid makes us contract and shut each other out. I hope we can fill that space created by fear and contraction with meaningful connections and learn to be less afraid of each of other."
I went to the supermarket last week to see one person wearing his mask on his chin like a beard net and one person with a mask tied around his neck.
There's a simple explanation to all of this. Remember what George Carlin said....
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize that half of them are stupider than that."
Pre-virus we didn't have that visible clue when we walked past people in the street.
Last edited by Christian; 24th May 2020 at 11:08.
I see loads of motorists with masks on in empty vehicles, mostly Uber and delivery drivers. It makes perfect sense to me why they would do this.
Thank you Ryan, that is helpful
OK I’ve not found the statement from John Bell that states the virus is ‘burning out’ (a link would be helpful), but I would encourage folk not to jump to conclusions. The science is complex.
In simple terms, a vaccine to be deemed effective it needs a control group - a population with a known level of infection - that can be compared with the level of infection in the vaccinated group. If the level of infection in the UK general population is too low to be an effective control group that is a good thing - but that doesn’t mean the virus has ran it’s course, ‘burnt itself out’ or mutated to a less contagious form.
It could be due to the effectiveness of the lockdown, social distancing etc. Or it could just mean the time lines are too long - we need an effective vaccine ASAP and usually these things take years to develop. If you wanted to speed up the process then having a control group with a higher level of infection would provide data quicker.
Note I’m not an epidemiologist so happy to be educated by someone who is!
Although it would be best to test it locally for logistical reasons, and it is a population where one's knows the health service, etc., that it was developed in England doesn't mean that it has to be tested here. Unfortunately, it looks like there are a number of places where there will be sufficient numbers of both people with the virus and people without. One tricky bit is to export the test in such a way that it isn't and doesn't appear to be using others as guinea pigs in order to reduce risk to people in England. (I think that this has occurred in the past, although I have no citations to hand.)
Best wishes,
Bob
I am a pure layman and I have read that there are number of human corona viruses that have been around for a very long time. So you are I guess right to be careful about the "burning out"
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