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Thread: Corona property prices

  1. #1901
    Funny how inactive this thread is if house prices are not at a gallop. You are all so shallow. Don't worry though, I'll keep it active :-)

    Once the doomster in the corner, ridiculed by ryan, mr noble, beechcustom (and even, dare I say Montello, on a lower level :D) etc. Not looking too clever now hey fellas! Yep, I can firmly say my predictions are better than yours. But, that would be true of a woodlice.

    "Regular pay rose by 7.2% per year in the February-April quarter"......"This is the fastest growth rate for basic pay on record"

    "UK 2-year bond yields at Truss panic levels"

    Every newspapaer running misery after misery BtL, house price and mortgage articles. Barely a puff piece in sight.

    Base rate expected to now hit 5.5% by year end (yep, that wil be revised upwards.......again).

    Mortgages being reset upwards on a weekly basis and 800 deals pulled from the market last week.

    Prepare for a very tough time ahead if you are a long on borrowing. And, watch house price falls now accelerate. The only thing keeping house prices from a precipitous fall is the strength of the labour market, something the BoE has to undo if it is to get inflation down.

    Someone in the BoE has to grasp the nettle. Otherwise they guarantee collapsing the UK economy if they properly respond later, rather than sooner.

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  2. #1902
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    Hi

    For info, from the Guardian:

    NatWest to increase mortgage rates - full details

    NatWest are also adjusting their mortgage rates, upwards, joining the rush by lenders to reprice their loans amid the turbulence in the market.

    The bank says:

    “Effective 13th June we’re making changes to our end dates and rate changes to our new and existing customer product ranges”

    The changes include some large increases for buy-to-let loans, with products increasing by up to 1.57 percentage points – a really hefty rise, which will hit landlords looking to remortgage.

    There are also smaller increases for other mortgage products.

    This shows that the increase in wholesale borrowing costs today is having a ripple impact on mortgages, on top of Bank of England policymaker Jonathan Haskel warning that further interest rate increases can’t be ruled out….

    Here are the details of NatWest’s changes.

    New Business Rate Changes
    Purchase: Rate increase of 20bps on selected 2 year and 5 year deals.
    Remortgage: Rate increase of 20bps on selected 2 year and 5 year deals.
    First time buyer: Rate increase of 20bps on selected 2 year and 5 year deals.
    Shared equity - purchase: Rate increase of 75bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to let – purchase: Rate increase of up to 157bps and 122bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to let – remortgage: Rate increase of up to 124bps and 114bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Help to Buy shared equity - remortgage: Rate increase of 20bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Green - purchase: Rate increase of up to 20bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Green - remortgage: Rate increase of up to 20bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to Let green - purchase: Rate increase of up to 138bps and 115bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to Let green - remortgage: Rate increase of up to 107bps and 110bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Existing Customer Rate Changes
    Switcher: Rate increase of up to 35bps and 30bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Switcher - tracker: Rate increase of up to 55bps on selected 2 year deals.
    Buy to Let - switcher: Rate increase of up to 42bps and 26bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    NatWest's homeowner rate increases aren't enormous (this time) of up to 0.2%, but its buy-to-let ones are increasing up to 1.57%.

    Cheapest 2-year buy-to-let fixes will now be over 6%.

    Best Neil
    Last edited by flame; 13th June 2023 at 09:52.

  3. #1903
    Quote Originally Posted by flame View Post
    Buy to let – purchase: Rate increase of up to 157bps and 122bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to let – remortgage: Rate increase of up to 124bps and 114bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to Let green - purchase: Rate increase of up to 138bps and 115bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Buy to Let green - remortgage: Rate increase of up to 107bps and 110bps on selected 2 and 5 year deals.
    Ouch ! I know BtL is pretty much dead. But, it doesn't need its face smashed in and to be vicerally disembowled while it is on life support.

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  4. #1904
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Funny how inactive this thread is if house prices are not at a gallop. You are all so shallow. Don't worry though, I'll keep it active :-)

    Once the doomster in the corner, ridiculed by ryan, mr noble, beechcustom (and even, dare I say Montello, on a lower level :D) etc. Not looking too clever now hey fellas! Yep, I can firmly say my predictions are better than yours. But, that would be true of a woodlice.

    "Regular pay rose by 7.2% per year in the February-April quarter"......"This is the fastest growth rate for basic pay on record"

    "UK 2-year bond yields at Truss panic levels"

    Every newspapaer running misery after misery BtL, house price and mortgage articles. Barely a puff piece in sight.

    Base rate expected to now hit 5.5% by year end (yep, that wil be revised upwards.......again).

    Mortgages being reset upwards on a weekly basis and 800 deals pulled from the market last week.

    Prepare for a very tough time ahead if you are a long on borrowing. And, watch house price falls now accelerate. The only thing keeping house prices from a precipitous fall is the strength of the labour market, something the BoE has to undo if it is to get inflation down.

    Someone in the BoE has to grasp the nettle. Otherwise they guarantee collapsing the UK economy if they properly respond later, rather than sooner.

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk
    Are you gloating ... not usually a good look.

    Personally I still don't see the 30% drop ... volumes are so thin that the prices are holding up ... yes a decline but only a drop for people with a distressed sale (like me ...)

    I have seen a couple of sales go through at surprisingly good prices.

    BTL is defiantly dead on "standard" properties. The government is destroying the business for the private landlord which is going to (has) create a crisis in the rental sector ... a recent Panorama highlighted this and didn't do much for the image of landlords again focusing on awful landlords who run squalid HMOs and poorly run housing associations which are not your typical private landlords who post here ...

    I don't have any mortgage on my BTLs (only two properties) and I will exit when possible ... I've had enough and that will make 3 families have to seek a new home ... I recently re-let a flat and had over 100 viewing requests in about a week ... the market is dire for tenants...
    Last edited by Montello; 13th June 2023 at 10:26.

  5. #1905
    2 year swap rate now 5.6%, so with a bit of margin for the banks, even the best 2-year mortgage deals are going to be repriced to a solid 6%. If you have good credit history and a modest LTV, of course.

    Hundred of thousands soon to be remortagaing from pandemic and pre-pandemic rates of 1 to 2%. This is going to turn ugly.

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  6. #1906
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Are you gloating ... not usually a good look.
    Go on, allow me a bit of slack to gloat this time. Promise I wont do it again. Not many naysayers on this thread. God knows the amount of insufferable 'property only goes one way' and 'Government can't afford high interest rate, so they will be back to ZIRP soon, 'immigration will keep house price high forever' and 'FOMO' comments we have had to suffer earlier on on this thread.

    A bit of payback time doesn't hurt.

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  7. #1907
    More from the Guardian, and comments from brokers at the coal face.

    Mortgage broker: Monday was horrendous

    This morning’s surge in UK short-term borrowing costs comes amid turmoil in the mortgage market.

    Yesterday,*NatWest*told mortgage brokers it was raising prices on some new and existing mortgages from today, including a 1.57% percentage point increase on some buy-to-led loans.

    Santander*paused new applications for certain products last night, ahead of launching a new range tomorrow.

    UK mortgage turmoil: Santander pulls new borrower deals as NatWest hikes rates

    That followed*HSBC*temporarily removing its “new business” residential and buy-to-let products last week, and*Nationwide*lifting its rates.

    HSBC temporarily withdraws mortgage deals for new borrowers

    Lenders are struggling to keep their prices in line with interest rate expectations, since UK inflation fell much less than expected in April, to 8.7%. Once one pulls its business, potential customers flood to the next.

    Today’s increase in two-year UK government bond yields*will put more pressure on lenders to reprice mortgages higher.

    Steven Morris,*advising director at*Advantage Financial Solutions LTD,*says yesterday was “quite simply horrendous”.

    Morris explains:

    We had rate withdrawals and rate increases across the board. Some increases with high street lenders were as high as 1.57%. Some lenders paused lending altogether for a period. Withdrawal deadlines of just a few hours were given. My advice to customers right now is don’t even bother getting mortgage advice unless you are prepared to apply within a couple of hours.

    Send your broker documents ASAP and up-front if possible or you don’t even stand a chance of getting a deal before it’s withdrawn.

    He also urges borrowers to “be kind to your broker”:

    They have a zillion other clients in the same position as you and with lenders giving just a few hours’ notice of products being withdrawn, are left having to choose which client to ‘save’.

    Being a mortgage broker right now is like trying to stop the tide from coming in armed with a mop. Pointless



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  8. #1908
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gareth-W View Post
    I have a good friend, and client, who is a CEO of a major Estate Agency Group and, FYI, one of the key data points the sector all look for the next years market potential is the Boxing Day on-line property browsing for all portals.
    Could probably guess who that is. The other big hit is 40/50 year old men looking for 1-2 bed flats in Jan. Christmas is the last straw for many and Jan is divorce season.

  9. #1909
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    Saw a post on LinkedIn from someone who had just bought a few places for cash, commercial and resident, saying they wanted to take on debt but the interest rates are so bad they’re buying much less but all cash and will refinance later.

    They were asking what everyone else was doing with their money now that rates have turned.

  10. #1910
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    They were asking what everyone else was doing with their money now that rates have turned.
    Even though inflation is 8.7%, a 5% return in an almost risk free money market account beats a negative BTL yield and destruction of capital via falling property prices, especially if you are highly geared.

    It a choice between becoming very slowly or very speedily poorer.

  11. #1911
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Saw a post on LinkedIn from someone who had just bought a few places for cash, commercial and resident, saying they wanted to take on debt but the interest rates are so bad they’re buying much less but all cash and will refinance later.

    They were asking what everyone else was doing with their money now that rates have turned.
    Not a bad strategy, for those who have cash on tap I guess!

  12. #1912
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Even though inflation is 8.7%, a 5% return in an almost risk free money market account beats a negative BTL yield and destruction of capital via falling property prices, especially if you are highly geared.

    It a choice between becoming very slowly or very speedily poorer.
    I just changed and consolidated my savings accounts recently to a bank which gives something called an expected profit instead of a set interest rate. These account types aren’t market leading so I think I’m on 3.85% while I try and research it a bit better another time but I have boosted my pension contributions for now.

    Half way through doing my mums savings/ISAs and that’s a lot more simple although getting the information out of her and explaining it back is much harder.

  13. #1913
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Go on, allow me a bit of slack to gloat this time. Promise I wont do it again. Not many naysayers on this thread. God knows the amount of insufferable 'property only goes one way' and 'Government can't afford high interest rate, so they will be back to ZIRP soon, 'immigration will keep house price high forever' and 'FOMO' comments we have had to suffer earlier on on this thread.

    A bit of payback time doesn't hurt.

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk

    I think you may be getting carried away ... we still have not seen prices drop the 30% you predicted ...

    Does all look like it could get messy ...

  14. #1914
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    So if people can’t afford their mortgages, interest rates on the rise, landlords are selling their rental properties etc in order to get out of the game, where is everyone living, back with mum and dad?

    I just want an offer, anything, lowball, tyre kickers, swop it for a few watches - just something please, anything…

  15. #1915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    So if people can’t afford their mortgages, interest rates on the rise, landlords are selling their rental properties etc in order to get out of the game, where is everyone living, back with mum and dad?

    I just want an offer, anything, lowball, tyre kickers, swop it for a few watches - just something please, anything…
    Careful now, Mick P will be along with his stories of the 20% off holiday home win while crying his eyes out that someone offered him 5% under on his UK home and calling them a toe rag.

    Mick identifies are bi when it comes to finances. Wants it both ways.

  16. #1916
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    So if people can’t afford their mortgages, interest rates on the rise, landlords are selling their rental properties etc in order to get out of the game, where is everyone living, back with mum and dad?
    Good question ... I had 100 viewing requests for a flat ... one gets it what happens to the other 99?

    Note I did have 3 councils contact me ... I did ask them how Right to Buy had worked out for council tenants ...

  17. #1917
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Note I did have 3 councils contact me ... I did ask them how Right to Buy had worked out for council tenants ...
    Councils are too busy pushing council tenants into social housing which the tenant can never buy.

    I think most councils have a three strike rule now where if you reject three properties you’re on your own. Many reject the first two hoping the third is council rather than social. Rarely is.

  18. #1918
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    More from the Guardian, and comments from brokers at the coal face.

    Mortgage broker: Monday was horrendous

    This morning’s surge in UK short-term borrowing costs comes amid turmoil in the mortgage market.

    Yesterday,*NatWest*told mortgage brokers it was raising prices on some new and existing mortgages from today, including a 1.57% percentage point increase on some buy-to-led loans.

    Santander*paused new applications for certain products last night, ahead of launching a new range tomorrow.

    UK mortgage turmoil: Santander pulls new borrower deals as NatWest hikes rates

    That followed*HSBC*temporarily removing its “new business” residential and buy-to-let products last week, and*Nationwide*lifting its rates.

    HSBC temporarily withdraws mortgage deals for new borrowers

    Lenders are struggling to keep their prices in line with interest rate expectations, since UK inflation fell much less than expected in April, to 8.7%. Once one pulls its business, potential customers flood to the next.

    Today’s increase in two-year UK government bond yields*will put more pressure on lenders to reprice mortgages higher.

    Steven Morris,*advising director at*Advantage Financial Solutions LTD,*says yesterday was “quite simply horrendous”.

    Morris explains:

    We had rate withdrawals and rate increases across the board. Some increases with high street lenders were as high as 1.57%. Some lenders paused lending altogether for a period. Withdrawal deadlines of just a few hours were given. My advice to customers right now is don’t even bother getting mortgage advice unless you are prepared to apply within a couple of hours.

    Send your broker documents ASAP and up-front if possible or you don’t even stand a chance of getting a deal before it’s withdrawn.

    He also urges borrowers to “be kind to your broker”:

    They have a zillion other clients in the same position as you and with lenders giving just a few hours’ notice of products being withdrawn, are left having to choose which client to ‘save’.

    Being a mortgage broker right now is like trying to stop the tide from coming in armed with a mop. Pointless



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  19. #1919
    Quote Originally Posted by Lammylee View Post
    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Well said!

  20. #1920
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Even though inflation is 8.7%, a 5% return in an almost risk free money market account beats a negative BTL yield and destruction of capital via falling property prices, especially if you are highly geared.

    It a choice between becoming very slowly or very speedily poorer.
    BTL doesn't have a negative yield.

  21. #1921

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Could probably guess who that is. The other big hit is 40/50 year old men looking for 1-2 bed flats in Jan. Christmas is the last straw for many and Jan is divorce season.
    Please, can we only have just the one doom and gloom merchant on this thread mate!!

  22. #1922
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    In amongst all the gloom you have to remember that new house building is grinding to a halt, population is still growing meaning there is and will continue to be demand for housing ...

    It may all be getting more expensive due to interest rates but that demand is not stopping any time soon.

    There is no major government initiative to correct this significant housing shortfall that has been developing for years so you can expect demand to still be strong.

    Also keep in mind that 33% of homes are owned outright and almost 20% is social and affordable housing.

    So about half of the private owners and half of private landlords have mortgages so about 40% of the housing stock is going to be impacted by the interest rate rises ... that is a fair chunk but I'd expect most have a reasonable amount of equity so I'm not expecting a crash as I don't see rates forcing sales ...

    Add in the prospect of an election in the mid term which won't go well for the Tories if interest rates are still high ...

  23. #1923
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I think you may be getting carried away ... we still have not seen prices drop the 30% you predicted ...

    Does all look like it could get messy ...
    Factoring in inflation, WRs house is down over 30%

  24. #1924
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Factoring in inflation
    No no no ;-) we are talking prices here not factoring in inflation. Next you will be saying your forecast was based in Turkish Lira ...

  25. #1925
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Factoring in inflation, WRs house is down over 30%

  26. #1926
    Quote Originally Posted by gunner View Post
    20% without inflation.

    Got to account for the opportunity loss of investing any proceeds.

  27. #1927
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Got to account for the opportunity loss of investing any proceeds.
    No ... just a discussion on property prices ... I don't actually think you need to twist it ...

  28. #1928
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    20% without inflation.

    Got to account for the opportunity loss of investing any proceeds.
    You never account for opportunity loss. What do you compare against the opportunity of not investing in Apple Stocks 20 years ago?

  29. #1929
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    Morrissey would find this thread depressing.

  30. #1930
    Quote Originally Posted by eagletower View Post
    You never account for opportunity loss. What do you compare against the opportunity of not investing in Apple Stocks 20 years ago?
    Of course you do. You have to weigh up the risk/reward of a BTL or other home investment/inheritance with risk free returns
    in a bank savings account (up to £85k per institution) or almost risk free money market account.

  31. #1931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middo View Post
    Morrissey would find this thread depressing.
    I find this thread depressing

  32. #1932

    Corona property prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Middo View Post
    Morrissey would find this thread depressing.
    Are you a BTLer too?

    Nah, what’s really depressing is that my late early 20 something kids have no opportunity to own their own home in the area that they were brought up in.

    I have theoretically lost £150k on my house price. I am I bothered? No. Bring more on. It doesn’t change the fact that my house is my home.

    It is not depressing that mortgage rates are rising and house prices are falling. Although some will feel the pain, this is the best thing that could happen to the market.

    If you are over leveraged, moral hazard will just weed you out.
    Last edited by noTAGlove; 13th June 2023 at 18:08.

  33. #1933
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Councils are too busy pushing council tenants into social housing which the tenant can never buy.

    I think most councils have a three strike rule now where if you reject three properties you’re on your own. Many reject the first two hoping the third is council rather than social. Rarely is.
    That has been the case for a long time. My dad rejected two in 1994. Luckily the third was a belter in Grantchester!!

  34. #1934
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Of course you do. You have to weigh up the risk/reward of a BTL or other home investment/inheritance with risk free returns
    in a bank savings account (up to £85k per institution) or almost risk free money market account.
    but everyone's risk appetite is different, not everyone would have put the money into a savings account. Also you need to factor in in years of growth then with house prices, vs none with property, how far do you go back etc?

  35. #1935
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    20% without inflation.

    Got to account for the opportunity loss of investing any proceeds.
    But it was his home?
    Totally different argument for a BTL of course, but you seem to have jumped on your own bandwagon and labelled everything the same!
    I do find it quite incredible how much of a doom monger you are over it all. I mean we can all see there is difficulty coming, but you seem almost gleeful (and as Montello said - gloating) over the whole situation.
    For reference I was a FTB July 2021 and have no plans to move.

  36. #1936
    Quote Originally Posted by LukeBird View Post
    But it was his home?
    Totally different argument for a BTL of course, but you seem to have jumped on your own bandwagon and labelled everything the same!
    I do find it quite incredible how much of a doom monger you are over it all. I mean we can all see there is difficulty coming, but you seem almost gleeful (and as Montello said - gloating) over the whole situation.
    For reference I was a FTB July 2021 and have no plans to move.
    Don't think it was his home.

    You are taking it far too seriously. I do like to prod and poke a bit, and a like to tease the property bulls. A bit of sparring is fun and never hurt anybody.

    Funny how nobody complains about attitude when the housing market is rampant, and there are comments about buying BTLs or holidays apartments for let. They may not be gloating, but I'd rather gloat than be elbowing FTBs en masse out of the market. Or, bringing it to such rampant speculation such that every rung of the ladder is so stretched on the ladder that pretty much everyone trying to move up is shafted.

    Remember there are two winners in a rampant property market. Downsizers and BTLers. Nobody else. A good few respondents on this thread are the latter. So, stick up for them as you wish.

    And yes I am gleeful. The housing market needs a massive correction. Clear out the deadwood. Let the property market get back to multiples where my grown up children can buy a home, rather than an glorified pension invenstment for the middle class.

    It may be difficult at the moment, but get through it and this will all be hugely benefical to your normal homebuyers in the long run.

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk
    Last edited by noTAGlove; 13th June 2023 at 22:32.

  37. #1937
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Don't think it was his home.

    You are taking it far too seriously. I do like to prod and poke a bit, and a like to tease the property bulls. A bit of sparring is fun and never hurt anybody.

    Funny how nobody complains about attitude when the housing market is rampant, and there are comments about buying BTLs or holidays apartments for let. They may not be gloating, but I'd rather gloat than be elbowing FTBs en masse out of the market. Or, bringing it to such rampant speculation such that every rung of the ladder is so stretched on the ladder that pretty much everyone trying to move up is shafted.

    Remember there are two winners in a rampant property market. Downsizers and BTLers. Nobody else. A good few respondents on this thread are the latter. So, stick up for them as you wish.

    And yes I am gleeful. The housing market needs a massive correction. Clear out the deadwood. Let the property market get back to multiples where my grown up children can buy a home, rather than an glorified pension invenstment for the middle class.

    It may be difficult at the moment, but get through it and this will all be hugely benefical to your normal homebuyers in the long run.

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk

    I don’t understand your negativity against people who invest in property?

    How is it any different to investing in other assets?

  38. #1938

    Corona property prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I don’t understand your negativity against people who invest in property?

    How is it any different to investing in other assets?
    I would not worry about me. I am just an individual.

    The main worry is your Government. You may want to ask the question why your Government stance has shifted so much that they are pro-actively and on a continuous path to wipe out the margins of property investment?

    Why is the Government so worried that they are bringing in draconian tax and regulation to property investment?

    I understand why, and it is the reason for my negative stance on this asset class.

  39. #1939
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I would not worry about me. I am just an individual.

    The main worry is your Government. You may want to ask the question why your Government stance has shifted so much that they are pro-actively and on a continuous path to wipe out the margins of property investment?

    Why is the Government so worried that they are bringing in draconian tax and regulation to property investment?

    I understand why, and it is the reason for my negative stance on this asset class.
    I think the government are just doing it as a stunt to impress the morons that they are tough on the wealthy elite … when the wealthy elite of course aren’t bothered with BTL. Plus as a cover up for their own monumental failure in housing policy.

    What are your reasons?

    … and if it’s because you think private investors are responsible for the current price level then you are way off the mark.
    Last edited by Montello; 14th June 2023 at 08:23.

  40. #1940
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I think the government are just doing it as a stunt to impress the morons that they are tough on the wealthy elite … when the wealthy elite of course aren’t bothered with BTL.

    What are your reasons?
    No they are doing it because it got too big and started to rip at the fabric of society.

    When you block aspiration to own a home due to widespread property investment, and make it is almost impossible to own a home or buy a larger home, you break one of the major goals of the current Government. The aspiration to own a home. A free market Government I may add.

    My reason are similar. Too big, too much and destroying the fabric of society where owning a home for the youth of today is a luxury.

    I don’t have a widespread dislike of property investment per se. Just needs it wings clipped.

  41. #1941
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    No they are doing it because it got too big and started to rip at the fabric of society.

    When you block aspiration to own a home due to widespread property investment, and make it is almost impossible to own a home or buy a larger home, you break one of the major goals of the current Government. The aspiration to own a home. A free market Government I may add.

    My reason are similar. Too big, too much and destroying the fabric of society where owning a home for the youth of today is a luxury.

    I don’t have a widespread dislike of property investment per se. Just needs it wings clipped.
    I’m surprised, I thought you’d have a better understanding of the fundamentals.

    Housing in the UK is a 40 year policy failing that was initiated by Thatcher and her follow on Tory party.

    Pre Thatcher we were building over 100,000 local authority houses a year sometimes double that. Now it’s zero and has been zero for years.

    There is a fundamental lack of housing in the UK and it’s been building for 40 years, then overlay that with a period of zero interest rates and you get where you are now.

    Private investors have just had a nibble on that … if you think they created that you are way off the mark.

    The % increase in investment ownership over the last 40 years is about 9%. That’s not a market driving situation.

    The anti-private landlord rhetoric is just a smokescreen for the bigger issue, don’t fall for it.

    Edit. I’ll also add that adjusted for inflation property has been flat for the last 20 years. It was the 90s that went crazy.
    Last edited by Montello; 14th June 2023 at 08:37.

  42. #1942
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I’m surprised, I thought you’d have a better understanding of the fundamentals.

    Housing in the UK is a 40 year policy failing that was initiated by Thatcher and her follow on Tory party.

    Pre Thatcher we were building over 100,000 local authority houses a year sometimes double that. Now it’s zero and has been zero for years.

    There is a fundamental lack of housing in the UK and it’s been building for 40 years, then overlay that with a period of zero interest rates and you get where you are now.

    Private investors have just had a nibble on that … if you think they created that you are way off the mark.

    The % increase in investment ownership over the last 40 years is about 9%. That’s not a market driving situation.

    The anti-private landlord rhetoric is just a smokescreen for the bigger issue, don’t fall for it.

    Edit. I’ll also add that adjusted for inflation property has been flat for the last 20 years. It was the 90s that went crazy.
    I totally understand the fundamentals and what a complete f**ktw@ttery the Tory and Labour government has made of this, and how they have provided no alternative.

    But, I think the current rental mess is needed to initiate a major change in social housing policy. Without the mess, there is little will to change. This can’t go on, and if it does those in power will fall.

    Things have to change. The fabric of society is being ripped apart by property investment and inadequate investment in social housing.

  43. #1943
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I totally understand the fundamentals and what a complete f**ktw@ttery the Tory and Labour government has made of this, and how they have provided no alternative.

    But, I think the current rental mess is needed to initiate a major change in social housing policy. Without the mess, there is little will to change. This can’t go on, and if it does those in power will fall.

    Things have to change. The fabric of society is being ripped apart by property investment and inadequate investment in social housing.
    You seem to still not get it … private landlords haven’t created the situation… politicians have and now they are making you focus on landlords as the source of the issue to distract you from their own failings. As I say don’t fall for it. Private investors are a minor factor in this mess. They don’t control house building policy or set interest rates.

  44. #1944

    Corona property prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    You seem to still not get it … private landlords haven’t created the situation… politicians have and now they are making you focus on landlords as the source of the issue to distract you from their own failings. As I say don’t fall for it. Private investors are a minor factor in this mess. They don’t control house building policy or set interest rates.
    Yep, agree about the Government are the root cause. We take out anger as the electorate by just changing them.

    The Government policy created a 20 year speculative property investment rampage. The rampage was undertaken by the private investor. Not all, of course.

    Not much sympathy for those who undertook such a rampage that ripped the fabric from society.

  45. #1945
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I totally understand the fundamentals and what a complete f**ktw@ttery the Tory and Labour government has made of this, and how they have provided no alternative.

    But, I think the current rental mess is needed to initiate a major change in social housing policy. Without the mess, there is little will to change. This can’t go on, and if it does those in power will fall.

    Things have to change. The fabric of society is being ripped apart by property investment and inadequate investment in social housing.
    I think you’re focusing on the symptom rather than the cause, although you did just touch upon it in your last post.

    Chronic under investment in social housing has forced those who will never be able to afford to buy a house, to look elsewhere for somewhere to live. Private BTL properties have, in part, filled the gap. Agreed, this has shifted the problem to making life difficult for FTBs due to increasing prices.

    Making BTLs non financially viable and therefore encouraging landlords to sell up may well reduce prices slightly and make life a little easier for first time buyers, but that just shifts the problem back down to those for whom renting will only ever be an option.

    The only solution is to build sufficient housing to house everyone.

  46. #1946

    Corona property prices

    The first simple hurdle is to educate the public that the mantra of high and increasing house prices are good and lower house prices are bad.

    High and rising house prices diverts investment, stymies social progression of the less wealthy in society and focusses wealth in the hands of the asset owners (i.e. me), investors and downsizers.

    Embrace thought times and falling house prices. Cut your cloth accordingly. In the long term you and the country will prosper from it.

    I am told I am a doom monger. Au contraire, it is those who think high and rising house prices lead to everlasting and continuing prosperity are the eventual mongers of doom.

  47. #1947
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    Exclamation

    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    The rampage was undertaken by the private investor .
    You are still focusing on the private investors as the root cause when that is far from the case as I point out above.

    Private investment is undeniably a contributing factor but it’s secondary to the primary issues of under supply and zero interest rates.

    The media is making you think the problem is all the fault of nasty, greedy, slum landlords who are filling their pockets at the expense of the vulnerable and young when the real villains are the politicians of the last 40 years who have abandoned local authority house building.

    It’s easy to despise landlords for the predicament but that’s just a smoke screen created by politicians not wanting people to understand the real truth.

  48. #1948
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    You are still focusing on the private investors as the root cause when that is far from the case as I point out
    As I said above, Government policy is the root cause.

    Execution was by the private investor.

    As I have also said, I have no problem per se with private landlords, and I have never demonised them. I don’t hate property private investors.

    Just things have to change, and it is now well underway with Government policy (taxation, section 21 etc.). This is being sped up by monetary policy which could not be predicted would pivot so quickly.

    The Government provided a 20 year bean-feast, realised it was ripping the fabric from society, and is now headed in the other direction.

    The basis being, I presume, that landlords selling up will be replaced by owner occupiers. Trouble is the Government didn’t think 6% mortgage rates would throw the whole system into meltdown.

  49. #1949
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    Off topic a bit but I really don’t know why there isn’t a strong additional stamp duty for buyers who don’t have settled status/indefinite leave to remain or UK passport holders.

    Second home surcharge makes sense but an international buyer making a chase purchase to use a property as a bank account and not even rent it for 10 years? No worries, sign here.

  50. #1950
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    As I said above, Government policy is the root cause.

    Execution was by the private investor.

    As I have also said, I have no problem per se with private landlords, and I have never demonised them. I don’t hate property private investors.

    Just things have to change, and it is now well underway with Government policy (taxation, section 21 etc.). This is being sped up by monetary policy which could not be predicted would pivot so quickly.

    The Government provided a 20 year bean-feast, realised it was ripping the fabric from society, and is now headed in the other direction.

    The basis being, I presume, that landlords selling up will be replaced by owner occupiers. Trouble is the Government didn’t think 6% mortgage rates would throw the whole system into meltdown.

    You continue to refer to landlords ripping the fabric from society, that sounds a lot like demonising them to me ... but this simply isn't the case. The issue with the UK property market are under supply and ZIRP ... landlords are a minor distraction and to continue to blame them is exactly what our politically motivated media wants you to think as it stops you from focusing on the real problem.

    It's the same tactic that brought us Brexit ... make people think all our economic issues are the fault of immigrants and eurocrats ... all focus on the common enemy and vote for something stupid ...

    So, currently the media is making you think the housing issue is the fault of the private investor and so everyone is loving watching the private investor getting squeezed by various legislative changes topped up with increasing interest rates.

    I believe 11% of properties listed for sale are private landlords exiting the market ... this will be part of the downward pressure on price so lets look how this will likely play out.

    Current position:

    65% Owner occupier
    18% Private Rental
    10% Housing Association
    7% Local Authority


    1980 position:

    55% Owner occupier
    12% Private Rental
    2% Housing Association
    31% Local Authority

    Looking at the above figures you can clearly see the shifts; the increase in PRS is minor compared to the other changes.

    If the PRS gets crushed over the next few years I suspect the landscape will look like this:

    Forecast by Montello:

    68% Owner occupier
    12% Private Rental
    14% Housing Association
    6% Local Authority

    There will always be some private rental as that includes holiday homes etc. So if the PRS gets squeezed back to 1980 levels has that solved the housing crisis? Can your kids now buy houses?

    No, of course they cant nothing changes, apart from maybe a minor dip whilst landlords exit; life gets much worse for tenants, every time you see a tenant bad news news item it's nearly always a poorly run housing association.

    So the current hate on that you an others seem to have for the PRS is just opium for the masses whist politicians gather votes as they give the nasty landlords a beating whilst the real crime goes unnoticed; the local authority stock has gone from 31% to 7% and is still in decline. All the time local councils are paying housing benefit to landlords running poor quality HMOs ... it's a disgrace and needs fixing. But that isn't going to happen so lets distract people by killing the PRS which is actually hurting tenants more than anyone else ... yeah a few over leveraged landlords will get stung but that isn't your typical 3 unit landlord in their 50-70s with low borrowings if any ... these people are providing housing; if they sell up that is a lot of ordinary families who will lose their homes ... is that what people want?
    Last edited by Montello; 14th June 2023 at 17:19. Reason: typo

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