Reply With QuoteIndeed diversify, outside GB no bad thing.Originally Posted by Montello
No - You just moan.
Indeed diversify, outside GB no bad thing.
Last edited by Passenger; 7th February 2023 at 13:33.
Thanks for your critical thinking, and reasoned debate. Another one filed under as thick as mince.
I think that response could be described as thick as mince.
Here is some more data.
Market stable at present.
https://moneyweek.com/house-prices-c...m_medium=email
“The shortage of houses is what will have been preventing a sharper fall in prices for the last few months,” says Gerrard.
That's the key bit
Good to know, but it's early doors yet, too soon to go getting the bunting out. Though I remain cautiously optimistic, I expect there to be further turbulence as we continue through this year.
Out of interest, and based on your contributions to this thread, why are you keen for the market to drop?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not hoping for growth and am personally ambivalent to how the market goes as my kids’ generation would benefit from getting on the ladder. But your posts read like you have shorted the property market in some way?
Apologies if intrusive
Halifax published data on 6th Feb, for the month earlier, so it has no information on January sales prices.
However, what it will understand is transactions and they where down 24% in H2 2022, and fell off a cliff in December.
There has been a rebound from December (it couldn’t go much lower) but what you are seeing is data from those transactions, transactions which are down substantially from the second half of last year.
It is easy to be fooled by a steady price on a significant reduction in transactions, and it means that more properties are not being transacted and there will have to lower prices to transact.
Whether you are bullish or bearish you have to be careful with data.
The property industry, whether it is banks , EAs, conveyances etc. live and breathe on transactions, not prices.
The vested interests will spin anything to increase transactions.
There are always lies, damn lies and statistics
The industry may care about volume of transactions but individuals only care about prices.
I’m not getting the bunting out just presenting some facts to counteract some of the relentless bearish sentiment.
My own forecast, for what it’s worth, is we will have a year of flat prices held up by thin volumes and the usual demand.
Exactly. Transactions are on their knees at the moment, so don't spook the public concerned about falling house prices, and more transactions will occur. They don't tell untruths, but statistics can be made to tell you what they want you to here. I am a big fan of 'More or Less' on Radio 4 which fuels my skepticism of statistics, and how they are used.
I find it amazing that really the only people who report on this on a regular basis, generate press releases and appear on TV, newspaper columns and the radio are vested interests. Organisations who want to convince you to transact, pump good (or not so bad) news on a continual basis.
FFS, you even get people on this thread quoting their discussions with EAs, as if this is some kid of epiphany on the market.
I am actively watching the market in my area of SW London/NE Surrey at the moment. Stuff is piling up and reductions are happening across the board. Anything that is not hugely desirable or reduced in price is stuck for months on end. I don't need the Halifax price to tell me that.
Not sure how many banks are shedding? Citi have taken on around 9000 staff.
Errrrr, ok.
I specifically said M&A in my post
And your thoughts on the following year?
I only have a small crystal ball; sorry ... it is only good for 12 months guesswork ...
Bottom line is no-one knows. I don't think many would have forecast FTSE100 at current all time highs 3 or 6 months ago ... truth is no-one knows it is all guesswork but I have never found persistent gloomy bearish forecasts to be very accurate; those types have forecast 23 of the last 2 market crashes ...
I tend not to have much to do with the FTSE myself, hard to get a sense of the truth, the real from among the smoke and mirrors...but that´s just me.
Though I´ve had some success with bonds in the past, as well as one notable, but thankfully not too costly rumping, but I digress.
Last edited by Passenger; 7th February 2023 at 16:56.
It used to be that recessions were just a normal part of the business cycle, and helped to clear out the over leveraged speculators and zombie companies, allowing a new roots and the next stronger cycle.
Now there seems to be every intervention possible to prevent a recession, and the overleveraged speculators and zombie companies hang on. The entrepreneurial spirit is stifled by this. The longer it is delayed, I believe the more painful it will be. The dead wood needs to be cleared out every so often to allow the new growth to appear.
Many more millionaires are made in a recession that in the boom times.
Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk
Yup agreed...I blame old clunky fist ´no more boom and bust´ Browny boy.
P.S. I´d like my- our gold back.
The Tories have taken this, streamlined it, and are running with a firm "No more boom" strategy.
RICS January 2023 monthly survey is out.
I respect this publication more than most given it comes from a professional industry body, and it’s members are boots on the ground and at the coal face. Beats the puff pieces from the usual vested interests.
Also you can view local sentiment for your area.
The headline is Sales Volumes and Prices Continue to Retreat Across the Housing Market.
https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ric..._Survey_tp.pdf
Such 'clever' fellows.
Thanks for the RICS survey...some good news for landlords.
Last edited by Passenger; 9th February 2023 at 15:43.
Wouldn't it be boots underground if they were at the coal face?
Especially if they have no mortgage or a very long fix.
For the others, I am not convinced it covers the 3-4 times increase in monthly interest repayments that is hitting them now, or when their fix expires.
mr noble has illustrated the impact on BTL tracker mortgages, above.
What a difference 12 days makes.
5 year gilts now above 3.5%. Up 65 bps in under two weeks.Recent wage data means than the markets don’t believe the BoE.
Oh well, it appears that the dip in mortgage rates may be temporary.
This follows on from a very sticky inflation print in the US this morning.
If the trend continues, we could be nearer 5% IRs by late summer.
I fixed for 5 years so hopefully they'll come down by late 2027.
The markets are not pricing in 0.5% next year. One and two year gilts are north of 4%. Must be all of those 6 and 7% pay rises, now even filtering down to the public sector.
Hopefully, many of you jumped in and got the 4% 5 year fixes last month as they have now been pulled for higher rates.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...pear-sale.html
Nit difficult to see why. Five year gilts now at 3.7% and not too far off a whole percentage point in the last month alone.
Clearly the market do not believe the BoE.
Best 5 year fixed will be nearer 5% shortly.
Last edited by noTAGlove; 24th February 2023 at 15:32.
Just spoke to my rental agent. He said that there are hardly any new rental properties coming onto his market but there are more and more people looking to rent in the area. As a result, rent is going up. My latest property was rented out at £825 PCM in December. He's just put an identical one on the market for £900 PCM and has so far had 9 offers to rent, 4 of which are over asking price.
Life is only going to get worse in the rental market as the government has been driving private landlords out of the market for years ... I wonder when they will realise and start improving the prospect for landlords because squeezing them isn't doing anything to improve affordability of rents or lower market prices to help first time buyers.
Great you can get £75-100 extra pcm and I know you have fixed for 5 years.
But for those who haven’t, it still does not cover the trebling of mortgage interest payments, as per mr noble real world example above.
That's exactly what the letting agent said. He seems to think that anyone holding property is going to be ok, particularly in that location as there are big spends to update infrastructure and links to major cities in progress. Of course the cynical amongst us will say he's telling me what I want to hear. I'm in it for the long term anyway (assuming no changes to capital gains calculations).
The other trend which is quite strong in my area is landlords switching to Holiday let’s and AirBnB.
This further reduces residential housing stock, which guess what pushes up prices and rents.
I just had a property estimate for my house in Gloucester from Zoopla. It's £30,000 ABOVE what I paid in June 21. Probably BS but wow!
In the next 15 years, I expect a lot of petrol stations will close, as ICE cars die out. It occurred to me today that a lot of properties that are currently blighted by being next to or near a petrol station might see a healthy rise in price. I just wonder when the sweet spot for taking a punt will be?
Halifax: House prices bounce in February, but market remains subdued
Still no 30% crash
https://moneyweek.com/investments/pr...s-flat-halifax
One of the admin team at my local school that I teach at on Wednesdays is looking to buy in my road. She said prices are still rising and she described her experience as being the same absolute bun fight that I went through in July last year.Halifax: House prices bounce in February, but market remains subdued
Still no 30% crash
https://moneyweek.com/investments/pr...s-flat-halifax
There's still hardly any decent houses coming on the market round here. Those that do sell quickly. Still lots of wildly optimistic pricing going on as well. New builds being reduced, so there is some uncertainty.
I know your average petrol station makes more from the convenience store part of the business, than selling fuel itself. Many diversify their offer to add car washes, parcel delivery points, takeaway coffee and food and so on, so there's still a viable business without the fuel. I doubt many sites will close and be replaced with something that will improve the area, at best you might get the odd infill housing or McDonald's franchise.
Or EV charging station which keeps people on site (spending) for longer.
SWMBO wants to move and saw a house come into the market last weekend.
We had a drive by on Sunday and hit chatting with the owner who offered to show us round. He’d already had an offer on it and it’s now marked as sold.
It wasn’t quite right for us anyway but I was still surprised at just how quickly it sold.
Last edited by Dave+63; 7th March 2023 at 16:00.
Rent's up by between 5 to 8.5 per cent on our little clutch of London flats for the year ahead, we didn't have any increase last year, I think this is reasonable, fair...I'm happy with it, prefer to avoid the voids.
I don't have flats but I did hear that services charges are rocketing due to annual increases being linked to RPI. Is the Tennant responsible for service charges or the landlord?
Generally nothing to do with RPI (unless there is a cap in which case the tenant may well still be getting a good deal) but the actual cost of providing services has notably increased. This is especially true where utilities costs make up a material part of the budget, flats are generally less exposed as it's usually just the common parts utilities that go through the service charge. Landlord obliged to provide services and tenant to contribute to cost, so a reflection of the increase in cost of living generally.
When I looked into buying a flat a few years ago the estate agent said that service charges will increase annually "generally in line with RPI".
Never trust an estate agent!
Words to live by.
Service charges are on me...so far, increases but no rocketing experienced, so good.
Forgot to say, thanks for your reply.
While I'm here, was chatting to another (far more successful) musician today who has a property portfolio. He's as left leaning as me but he is quite certain Labour will go after BTL landlords as and when they get in. Not sure how I feel about this tbh!
Hmmm I dunno, actually kinda doubt it, not to worry, I'll cross that bridge if it turns up...Also other irons in other places, diversity of eggs, baskets, within the electoral timeframe.
Last edited by Passenger; 17th March 2023 at 16:45.
Government policy has been squeezing the PRS for years; the deletion of section 24 was huge, the deletion of section 21 is scheduled ... load more red tape... soon there will be little PRS so what does that leave for people who want to rent decent homes?
Answer, not much supply and sky high rents.
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