Reply With QuoteHe only has to cut out one takeaway for the day.Originally Posted by Passenger
Thank you for the reminder...Over to you Ryan...
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Renters will face increased costs of housing just as home owners will ... rising interest rates will affect both renters and home owners with mortgages ... renters will not be insulated from the rises in interest rates.
I think you are making some very board assumptions about the profile of people who rent. They are not all young kids with parents with spare accommodation awaiting the return of their young adults ... people rent for a whole host of reasons and many of those will continue to want to rent.
The obsession with home ownership is a very odd UK preoccupation; the presence of a vibrant rental sector is key to a healthy economy allowing the mobility of the workforce to shift with labour demands without being shackled to a property that takes a ages to sell/buy.
The government actions that have pushed/is pushing many private landlords out of the sector has done nothing to lower house prices and has just reduced the stock of available rental property which like it or not pushes up rents and is generally bad for the economy overall.
The deletion of section 24 makes no difference to me as I don't have any borrowings but it seems bizarre to not permit the cost of borrowing to be offset against tax just as every business can ...
As per usual our government is making poor policy decisions with regards to housing but that's not really a G&D subject ...
He only has to cut out one takeaway for the day.Thank you for the reminder...Over to you Ryan...
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More Torygraph property and BTL FUD. Three articles in less than one week. They are talking the market down better than anyone can.
Why house prices will nosedive in 2023 – and how far they will fall
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...why-fall-2023/
Why 2023 could bring the collapse of buy-to-let
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...forecast-2023/
Small-time landlords are under siege – and that’s bad news for their tenants
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...-news-tenants/
They certainly seem to have an agenda.
You didn’t comment on my post above so I won’t repeat myself.
The addenda could be government backed, to oust the private LL and get the prices down so all the pension funds can continue to snap them up. [Tin foil hat mode off]
Or less imaginative ………..
Get the small landlords out of the ‘industry’ for the properties to be agglomerated within large companies, with their cronies as owners/directors.
Call me a cynic but this is how I see it going. Far too lucrative to have BTLs in the hands of us plebs.
After 30 years of BTL making out like bandits, the first sniff of harder times with no capital appreciation (in fact the opposite) and the conspiracy theories have started, lol.
Let me play the worlds tiniest violin.
Last edited by noTAGlove; 29th December 2022 at 18:08.
There doesn’t seem to be any shortage of landlords on here I don’t think the public ever had much sympathy for them but as the country goes down the pan I think making money out of people trying to have a roof over their heads and whining that they aren’t the investments they used to be is now as socially acceptable as prince andrew running a nursery
Some of them will be sure to pile in soon telling us how they are doing the poor a service and that rents would be higher if there weren't so many altruistic private landlords like them (or some such self serving twaddle).
Scum of the earth, the lot of them.
And it hasn’t even properly started yet.
Although I was listening to a EA and registered valuer on You Tube who said his area of North Somerset (IIRC) is down 20% off the peak already, but that asking prices are not showing it as much yet.
The 20% fall is the difference between the overbidding and agreed sales in Dec 21, and the underbidding and agreed sales as of today.
Would getting rid of BTL landlords reduce rents from where they are now?
Reducing supply = rising prices. Many people either want to rent (eg living somewhere temporarily) or have to rent. Public sector provision is completely inadequate so private landlords fill the gap.
We sold my mum's house Oct 21 looking at how things are now it was the right time to sell we have friends trying to sell a house now and they have had a lot of problems
May reduce house prices from where they are now, thereby reducing the number of people who have to rent because they cannot afford to buy.
For the record, I have no moral objection to btl. Savings sitting in the building society are being eroded by inflation and so have thought long and hard about going the btl route myself. But basically I can't be bothered with the faff and potential pitfalls. What I wouldn't do though if I had done so, is whine when my investment, sorry I mean my valuable service to the poor stops making me a profit.
Last edited by Ruggertech; 29th December 2022 at 21:07.
Tenants?
Unwind with a pint or two in our own virtual pub. Friendly banter and clean jokes please and no politics or religion.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
He is a bit grumpy as the DSS have blocked any rent rise.
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Absolutely, one should keep one’s losses to oneself. Not everything is a sure-fire win.
This thread is starting to resemble one of those where some pile in on cyclists.
Landlords are currently out of favour, if they were ever in …. and the political tide and social tide is turning against them.
They seem to being blamed for the growth in house prices which of course they are not …
If the UK had a stock of social housing then the private landlord would have no place and tenants would be fine, however we don’t and so the private rental sector has a key role in UK housing. Squeezing it down will to little to drive down house prices and will just lead to a scarcity of decent rental stock and so push rents up. Bad news for tenants.
Not sure where your edit above - dovetails into your 'lol' on theories...........................
You decided we are all landlords?
Just to give this issue some scope, about 18% of the UK housing stock is in the PRS and of that 40% is mortgaged.
So only 7% of stock is being squeezed by increases in BTL lending so even if say a third of those landlords sold up it’s only. 2% issue for the market so unlikely to be the cause of any crash in prices.
This landlord hate that is being whipped up by the media is a distraction, the market is driven by economic factors, government policy and owner occupiers.
Hating private landlords for the state of the housing market is a similar rhetoric that the anti-immigration brigade used to deliver Brexit. I’m amazed people fall for such media tactics.
If there are no private landlords, who rents the houses out that are there to be let? Someone has to own them for them to be available. The rental cost is not likely to change with change of ownership, in fact it is far more difficult to hit big business with a large stick than it is the little man. Large businesses are more capable of dealing with hurdles thrown in front of them than a householder with the odd buy-to-let. The other thing that is happening, all these houses that are being thrown up around the country are poorly built. yes they meet the energy standards and all that jazz, but the quality of construction is aweful. Take Sherford, on the outskirts of Plymouth, 3 friends have bought there, it is still being built, it is a 40,000 house development plan. A mixture of 4/5 bedroom Georgian type detached houses mixed in with 'social housing'. The build problems (snags, people call them) are seeing houses 6 months old with settlement cracks through them and roof leaks and all sorts of problems. The stories coming from the people who live there are being hushed up mostly, so they aren't making the news, but locally the problems are known about. Give it a year or two and the problems will surface and those properties will be very difficult to sell. The other problem with the whole development is you have people buying a £700,000 hoiuse with social housing over the road, and drug dealers and immigrants being dumped there with the associated crime that brings - again, I don't live there but have listened to the tales of woe from my friends that do. My nephew is a carpenter for one of the developers and he says he would never buy one because he sees how they are built. It is a time bomb in the making.
Back on buy-to-let / renting: many rental properties are owned by overseas investment funds or corporate landlaords. Why are these more preferable to the small time landlord?
Blimey that sounds awful, criminal...mental that people spend that much or perhaps more accurately decide to extend themselves with such big mortgages against a 4 or 5 bedder near Plymouth, doesn't the area have some of the worst deprivation in the UK...what were they expecting to happen, unfortunate but sadly predictable.
Last edited by Passenger; 30th December 2022 at 12:15.
40,000! Are you sure? That's more than two thirds of the total housing stock in my entire county.
A quick Google suggests that there will be 5500 houses built over a 20 year span at Sherford New Town & not 40000.
https://www.southhams.gov.uk/article...-New-Community
Last edited by jwg663; 30th December 2022 at 12:39. Reason: Link inserted.
______
Jim.
Sounds more realistic.
Back on topic
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9...90e364e5126979
Back on topic
York house prices up 23% YOY.
York records strongest house price rises in 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-64125261
3 properties on our road sold within a week (not sure if they achieved asking price).
My deceased mums house sold for £30k above asking price following a final bid process.
Is this a media bull$hit thing (again)?.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
This week? This month? This year?
This year.
Mum's in May, the other 3 in the last two months.
Last edited by Chris_in_the_UK; 30th December 2022 at 21:27.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
Amazing how they publish this within accuracy given the significant lag in house sale completions. More likely this is realistically mid 2021-mid 2022 data.
You look backwards for your positive news; it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand it has all recently gone pear shaped.
You must be feeling a lot more bullish given your 1.49% above base rate BTL tracker mortgage has increased from 1.74% in Dec 2021 to 4.99% in Dec 2022, increasing you mortgage interest payment nearly 3-fold.
Are you buying more BTL? Thought not.
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May was the peak of the peak. Interest rates where 0.75-1% back then. And many buyers will have had mortgage deals struck 3 months earlier when interest rates where <0.5%.
Plus inflation, heating bills and general sh1tness of the U.K. economy had not yet kicked in.
May data tells us nothing about the current market.
Neither do recent sold signs going up; as you rightly say you cannot know the agreed sales price.
For example overbidding by 10% May and underbidding by 10% in December, is a 20% drop. But, if you just look at the asking price you think nothing has happened in the housing market.
Of course, but that suits your negative narrative - it's not a 20% drop BTW, it levels the playing field.
Given this was 18 months into the Covid cycle I am still not sure that the media and so called 'sources' have it right. for sure there is caution, but the right property in the right spot will generally attract interest and sell. Over my 40+ years of property ownership/buying/selling there will always be pinch points but a few thousand here or there on a property is not worth worrying about - overall it's a solid thing to do.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
Mortgage rates were around 1.5% last year. They are now 6% give or take.
That is 4 fold increase on interest only mortgage repayments (for your typical BTLer) or 60% increase for a repayment mortgage for traditional buyers.
Huge, life changing amounts of additional monthly debt for many people.
I will not argue the toss about local markets.
That level of debt repayment (coming soon when fixed rates expire) represents a huge impact to borrowers which is, and will, shift the market significantly.
I was told that was the total plan, the 5500 must be nearly built already, it is a new town that has gone up. I am perfectly happy to be corrected, Stan, our nephew the carpenter, has a job for life on the development.
Numbers aside, the quality is shocking, which was the crux of my statement and the question of who will rent the houses if there are no private landlords.
I am old enough to remember the bank BASE RATE being 15% and we, as a country, had to go cap-in-hand to the world bailout people (I can't remember the initials, EMF perhaps?) and mortgage rates were 17% - 18%.
I alsdo remember the similar situation in the late 80s, where people had borrowed and property prices dropped, to the extent that many people owed more on their mortgage than the house was worth (negativy equity they called it). That was what really kick started the whole buy to rent thing, people with access to cash, if not cash itself, bought the houses at lower prices and then rented them back out.
A phrase in the Bible describes this situation: "unto them that hath". Another one is "money begets money". It has always been so, it is no good being bitter about those who have got money, you do not make poor people richer by making rich people poorer. People on here are hardly 'poor' if they can afford money for frivolous trinkets on their wrist.
Only about 35% of the UK houses are mortgaged. Your perception on the impact of interest rates is over blown.
Demand and government policy has more impact.
Interest rates will taper down in 2024 anyway, probably back to 1.5% by Q1 2025. Don't forget this crisis of debt for homeowners you are talking about is a deliberate act on the part of the government- aimed at lowering inflation by absorbing spending power. Once inflation is down (and don't forget a lot of inflation is based on one off events) the government will focus on re-energising the economy and also winning votes for the next election, both of which will require big interest rate cuts.
Last edited by ryanb741; 31st December 2022 at 02:29.
montello you’re spot on however the OP is like an anti vaxer or flat earth believer. Deliberately manipulating numbers when it suits him and no reasoning at all. Plain ignorant.
Even with rates rises meaning the interest element can be “double /triple “ etc. - the fact it was so low , means that people can still afford it .
He seems to think that 90% of properties are owned by landlords mortgages to the hilt. Wishful thinking for those wanting a drop in house prices .
Keep wishing .
Ah yes, a quick Google hasn't shown me the numbers but they are calling it Sherford New Town, so 40,000 is feasible in that case.
The quality or lack of sounds like it will have to be addressed or become an ongoing problem.
On new estates near me that have an allocated social housing quota housing associations provide the rental sector. Of course some private individuals also buy up some of the smaller semis and link houses to rent out also. After time people who move away for work etc sometimes rent out rather than sell for various reasons so the rental stock does slowly grow also.
It is like a BTL quintuple act of passing the ball around. Beechcustom, mr noble, Blackal etc. will all be along to sing from the same hymn sheet.
And you have to. Because, without the belief of ever rising house prices and low interest rates your investment is heavily under fire.
As BTLers, you are one of the very few cohorts of people who benefit from rising house prices. You, and the elderly selling up and trading down. Nobody else benefits; it is just and illusion to make everyone else feel wealthier.
And don’t give me all the horse manure about how you are in it to provide a valuable service to society. Your number one goal is to make yourself richer primarily via capital appreciation, but also the margin between rent and interest mortgage payment. Whether you like it or not both are under strain.
Now, although the sparring is fun, I really don’t have an agenda against BTL. It is just a sideline of the market that will suffer in order to get house prices back on a sustainable path.
The latter has to and will happen, and there has to be pain along the way. We all know the pain has already started.
I’ll take some time out from this thread as without new hard published data the same-old-same-old stuff will be recycled. Let’s see how it pans out. I’ll be back.
Last edited by noTAGlove; 31st December 2022 at 11:19.
Hah! I've barely opined on BTLs, and then only in general terms and questions.
I do not have a BTL, never have.
much apols, blackal! I can’t keep up.
I’ve given you a number of data points but you still don’t seem to grasp the point and still keep pushing the same narrative.
Mortgaged private landlords represent a tiny slice of market, and if some of those sailing too close to the wind go bust then the market will hardly notice.
If you want a hate figure to focus on for the state of the uk property market you need to look elsewhere.
There is a need for decent quality rental stock for a healthy economy and most of that is provided by the PRS. It’s healthy for it to exist and the PRS does not drive the market, is a minority segment.
I'm being told my house may drop 5% by a Halifax article
In the same article they say it went up 40% in last 4 years
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Indeed, stand fast, sit tight and enjoy your home.
The IMF, the EMF, a band, had a hit with Unbelievable
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