Reply With QuoteThat Scottish castle looks incredible. Wouldn’t want to pay the gas bill though, let alone the electric or get the wifi working.
We only eventually got into Clahharm, via a lucky buy in Tulse Hill!Originally Posted by dougair
Agreed.
That Scottish castle looks incredible. Wouldn’t want to pay the gas bill though, let alone the electric or get the wifi working.
Never mind a million, this picture book looking place just caught my eye, love that roof, make a nice country retreat, the detached gagrage looks generous, bit of land...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properti...hannel=RES_BUY
No idea what the areas like though tbh.
Last edited by Passenger; 20th November 2021 at 21:38.
Back to work and back on the hunt - its dry as anything but i guess that's to be expected. Hopefully it will be a bit rosier come spring.
must be the shitty parts then! my modest one bed is nearly that and i’m not in the very posh bit, we are looking for a 2 bed for 460-530k which puts you in the nicer bits and not crappy conversions but certainly not enough budget for Dulwich village etc.
that said i’m not comfortable when surrounded by too many posh people and mumsys with massive prams and a 25k Waitrose/Boden budget.
Maybe you'd be happier in a nice, friendly, down to earth Northern town!
It suits me, I fail to see the attraction of London. My niece is a solicitor in Central London and lives in a semi-detached house in Barnet that cost ca £900k, with no driveway. She's spending more money having an extension built, but it still doesn`t solve the poarking issue. Have to say I really don`t get it, I think my niece got 'Londonised' by studying at Oxford and mixing in different circles, we were surprised she didn`t move back to Gods Own County.
Prices in the North have risen significantly over the past 3 years, especially for the more sought after places. That's a gap that is increasing, but affordability is still far better than the South-East.
Last edited by walkerwek1958; 5th January 2022 at 13:58.
There are lots of reasons we have decided to stay rather than move the North West to be close to family. Not least the family drama…we also struggle with the narrow minded views expressed up there. London has a lot to offer although you need to have money to make the most of it!
Think West Norwood for the BTL's, certainly not Dulwich , never mind the Village dahlinnng. We used to be in the Abbeville Village ourselves in estate agent speak, over by Clapham Common albeit on a Crescent! Nonsense when you stop and think about the numbers, the quality/ quantity of life.
Folks' gotta live somewhere, even the shitty parts! Nonetheless solid price rises and reliable rental incomes, for pretty modest initial investments, I'm good with.
not for me, don’t mind a visit but couldn’t live there, having done tiny rural village, gritty urban (Brixton in the 90’s) and proper posh (Hampstead) i’m happier somewhere in between but still cosmopolitan in outlook.Maybe you'd be happier in a nice, friendly, down to earth Northern town!
Heck we could've been nearly neighbours, West Norwood in the 90's, commuted through Brixton...Don´t suppose you remember the tall Black fella used to stand outside the tube of a morning shouting at us commuters ´Don´t be a sinner, be a winner´ etc, marvellous inspiring stuff it was especially on a wet Monday morning
Then someone put a nail bomb in the trash bin right next to where the buses would pick up, you just can´t beat that sort´ve urban grit! Took me right back to most of a day waiting in a bus station in Tel Aviv and having to keep shifting location for all the bomb scares. Good times.
Enough wool gathering, what´s the view on 2022, seems the predictions are for generally flat in terms of price rises? Could it be a year of consolidation, in the face of tax increases and inflation?
Last edited by Passenger; 6th January 2022 at 11:36.
Personally i think its going to stagnate for the year, BOE interest rise, inflation, utilities going up, fuel costs up, new NI increase coming in, fixed income rate tax thresholds etc which means affordability should be negatively impacted which should trigger a house price reduction i feel people will put their houses up and then remove them because they feel they cant achieve what they or the agent think its worth which subsequently leads to a shortage of houses on the market and thus potential buyers not finding what they want (or what they want at 2021 prices).
Even though minimum deposit mortgages are still available and interest rates are ridiculously low historically i think prices will generally stay at 2021 levels but the number of houses sold will drop.
Thanks, that mirrors my take on things at present, probably a good thing some of the steam comes out of the market tbh.
I know an estate agent who is currently selling his own property with a view to sitting out the market for a while. He thinks pricing is still crazy but unsustainable. Interesting times.
Is it the same one who was planning it way back in the thread (Sept 2020)?
If so - has he said why he held off for this long? He would have been looking to repurchase now?
I was sceptical of the move/timing back then - might make more sense now, though.
Nope. The one in 2020 is a head of office for one of the higher end agents around Surrey and is somewhat surprised by how things turned out, that strategy worked out badly for him and he re-joined the market a while back. The latest is someone who works for a small independent chain in South Hants.
Who knows what will happen, common sense suggests prices must be under pressure during the wider turmoil but then dopey Sunak might roll out some more SDLT relief to help things along.
I think the above just demonstrates that no one knows and that market timing is virtually impossible to get right.
Interesting.
I can't help but think that in these times of increasing pressure on incomes - that many will dig in, and not move house with all the attendant costs, which may cause a lack of available property which more than compensates for lack of cheap mortgages, so the prices continue to increase.
The property market has been the same since the 1970s.
Prices climb steadily then you have a boom which fizzles out and is followed by a drop. A year or so later prices start to climb slowly only to accelerate and fizzle out again. This "boom" is nothing new and it will fizzle out one day soon.
However we have to remember that the UK is a small island with too many people in it with nowhere near enough houses to accommodate them, so prices are going to carry on climbing in the long term.
I bought my first house in 1970 for £2,750 and that same house sold for £260,000 a couple of years ago. Everyone involved in that buying chain did well.
If you can buy - do it.
...and that estate agents are salesmen not investment analysts...
They sure are, but at many times there is nothing rational to analyse about house price movements, it's a bit like looking at steel Daytona prices at £25k and thinking it's madness, then £10k+ higher later.....
The culture towards debt has certainly been a factor, modern society is a lot more willing to be highly geared, partly off the back of a structural change to the anticipated long term range of interest rates.
There's plenty to analyse (housebuilder pipeline, savings ratios, unemployment, wage growth etc etc etc), but I agree it isn't an easy market to rationalise/predict.
House market is no different to any other.
Many highly paid, intelligent analysis spending hours trying to predict it.
Yet on average still the majority are wrong.
What do you base that statement on...?
Does that analysis allow for reliable and near accurate predictions as far as the housing market is concerned?
I subscribe to Mick's sentiment in that the housing market has remained the same throughout many decades. Yes there could be occasional busts after massive booms but lack of supply in the UK will always keep prices increasing.
Even at times of bust, I have found the sought after areas maintained a buoyant stable market, as people could afford to sell at what they wanted or hold off selling which meant you never saw an actual price drop in those areas.
My humble, totally non expert take for what it's worth, is that we are less likely to see a crash on the same proportions as those we saw during the last financial crisis.
That's simply because unlike then when people were on 95 - 100% mortgages, people have a lot more of their own cash invested in their homes and are more likely to fight tooth and nail to hold on to them. This will mean less repossessions which will mean we're less likely to see a massive crash.
Price increases may well start slowing down beyond the silly current trends however, but then again they may not!
My apologies you did answer my question in the same sentence gunner!
However, most active fund managers failed to capitalize on the opportunity, with just 20% of core and 15% of growth mutual funds outperforming their benchmarks, the analysts including David Kostin said in a report. That is below historical averages of 32% and 36%, respectively.3 Jan 2022
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia...ar-2022-01-03/
So nothing to do with the housing market then?
As I said before here I have regular weekly contact with a couple of estate agents, the recent market in this area (outskirts of Bristol) is a little strange, most home owners are telling agents what they want even after being advised what their property is actually worth, this probably stems from a strong market so arrogance steps in to try the market, problem you have is the property can sit and go stagnant if its not desirable.
That said, lots of properties I know of are still selling above asking, one last week entered the market at £450k sold for £455k to a first time buyer, another 2 bed apartment come on at £275k and went £10k over, both were in great locations and very nicely presented.
The agent feels like the market is cooling though, to the point where he wanted to set up his own agency but feels it may not be the best time to start a new business in a potential negative market, Easter has played a part as does Christmas, School holidays etc so only time will tell I guess..
My general point was that rafts of experts fail to predict markets and the house market is no different. Just look at the sub prime crisis, that was a property crash predicted by very few. The chances of a lone estate agent guy calling it are slim.
Definitely agree on the estate agent! I think the housing market is a little different to equity markets but still challenging to get right.
If the housing market if different why did the sub prime crisis cause a global recession?
Should analysts not have seen it coming?
Re-packaging of massive over-leverage by investment banks. It wasn't Mr and Mrs Smith paying £10k over asking for 46 Main Road...
The reason I say it's different is that the stock market is largely institutionally owned whereas the housing market isn't.
All ultimately driven by the human psyche regardless of their status, greed, heard mentally, fear, panic …all very difficult to forecast. Arguably you’d expect less volatility with institutional investors due to expected less emotional behaviour… probably true but property is less liquid which helps dampen volatility.
My point about institutional ownership was that the majority of the housing market is not owned for investment purposes, whereas the stock market is. Like it or not, that's a fundamental difference.
As above, still irrational humans. Anyway, if you have it licked no doubt you are massively leveraged in your forecast direction. Out of interest are you a bull or bear?
A lot depends on how aggressively monetary policy is tightened, but personally I'd say a slowdown is more likely than a crash. Just my 2pence worth of course.
There's a growing trend in the USA, institutional investors buying into the housing market in certain areas of some states, which is interesting I think.
HEHEHE the analysts in this case, Standard and Poor, Fitch, Moody's were in on the con.
Yes, multifamily makes up about a quarter of institutional real estate in the US.
So you are pinning your hat on increasing prices, let’s see how that works out.
Pinning my hat? You passive aggressively asked my opinion and I gave it.
Personally, I'm neither increasing or decreasing my exposure this year so it makes little difference what happens.
Professionally, I'm fairly fully allocated at £2.4bn. You?
Moving is totally off the table for the E-5 household for the next few years or so. Tight squeeze at the moment and the money that would have been used for the increase in mortgage payments is now being used for day to day expenses.
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I was only asking which way you were forecasting. I guess you are a fund manager so I suspect I have ruffled your feathers with sharing of facts about active performance verses the index, the pros and cons of active v passive investment are probably best left to another topic. Apologies it was not my intention to wind you up.
I’m only an amateur so not in your league but I’m planning on selling investment property this year.
Last edited by Montello; 18th April 2022 at 20:21.
I am a fund manager, yes, but no offense taken on active vs passive, you can't really 'buy the index' with direct real estate. I did beat my benchmark by about 500bps though.
Strong market to sell into this year so I'm sure you'll do well.
Last edited by gunner; 18th April 2022 at 22:41.
Well done on beating your index, the career of a fund manager must be very linked to fund performance, just look at Woodford.
Always strikes me as a gap in the market that you can’t buy the Nationwide House Price index, must be possible to create a fund that tracks that with various derivatives?
Most of the available REITS seem to be thematic and/or based on commercial property.
It's possible to buy CFDs but derivatives have never really taken off in real estate in the same way as other asset classes. They tend to price in all the expectation so you only make money if the index does better then the bank expects.
I now work for a pension fund rather than an investment manager so not too much of the Woodford effect thankfully.
Last edited by gunner; 19th April 2022 at 09:26.
Overweight on sheds and supermarkets then!
Spot on, that's my point. You can analyse the housing market to minutiae, but it doesn't correlate in anything like the same way as the commercial market responds to what should be relevant factors, as most purchases are based on emotion not sober facts. That having been said the negative risk free premium for prime commercial in 2007 was always going to end in tears, regardless of the wider financial crisis!
Last edited by thegreatdogwood; 19th April 2022 at 11:11.
Beds, sheds and meds...
Interestingly though, the demand for houses is a lot less volatile than the demand for commercial space as the number of people in the country who need a house is far less correlated to financial markets.
Agreed
I think the whole of the office stock in Oxford is being re-branded as "life sciences"... still performance to come from the supermarket sector, lots of money chasing a constrained supply
Absolutely, there is a need to live somewhere, whilst hybrid working has had an instant effect on commercial take up. Housing affordability is an increasing problem, hence why the likes of L&G have really pushed on with PRS and looking at cheaper construction methods, notwithstanding traditionally modest triple net yields and increasing affordable housing provision. I can see a period of modest falls in the resi market, but corrections are normally driven by forced sellers. Unless the BOE go crazy with rate increases which isn't likely to happen, the supply / demand equation will probably retain broad equilibrium, but at a lower trading volume in the short term. The amount of new properties going on the market has noticeably slowed.
But then I've always been rubbish at predicting the housing market so I'll stick to commercial!
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