Spoke to a friendly estate agent today re: some advice on a purchase I'm trying to make happen. He said that, based on what he is seeing at the minute, he anticipates a crash within the next 6 months. He did say trying to time the market is a fools game and he may be incorrect time wise but its 'got to happen relatively soon'. Make of that what you will.
Certainly the anemic economic figures in March and all the current forecasts suggest a period, perhaps extended, of stagflation if not an actual recession. Whether that'll derail or slow the juggernaut...we'll see, also there's always the possibility of a cunning Govt intervention, see Chancellors covid response, the stamp duty wheeze.Originally Posted by beechcustom
Last edited by Passenger; 29th April 2022 at 12:16.
I think- half the time they just like predicting something that if it actually occurs - makes them look like some sort of seer....................
If it doesn't occur, and someone reminds them - they respond with "yeah-but......................"
He's covered all bases with that statement.
...and has the benefit of not giving a flying fudge which way the market moves as long as he gets his commission...
It is reported that house prices have increased by 12% over the last twelve months. If that is so, we cannot complain if prices remain static for the next 3 or 4 years.
Meaningless stat given regional and even town and street variances.
What’s really odd as i sit here waiting for a purchase and sale go through is that the daily email from rightmove with ‘recently added’ has fallen off a cliff. there’s one or 2 properties a week not 2 a day i was seeing in Jan/Feb/March.
I know there are ebbs and flows of property but i would have thought that availability would be high right trough the summer?
I suspect most people stretch themselves to the absolute max (and then some) in order to upgrade - retail and utility price rises makes that move unwise
Our old neighbours sold their house in two days. They just cant find anywhere to move to as houses are sold as before they can view, in some case sold before they hit agents window or right move
People generally dig in for Christmas (poss the 2 months leading up to it), and then get their act together in the new year -creating a pent-up stimulus. I guess that has to stabilise again after that new-year flurry?
House opposite me went on the market 2wks ago with viewings pre-qualified (no chain, funds in place) - sold easily.
I guess that availability/desirability/work prospects are big influencers
I think most people would agree that property is overpriced even in the low priced areas. It really does need a few years of zero growth.
Never sell a house
I am still living in the large 4 bed double garage house that I bought in 1982 so I am sitting on a good asset and common sense dictates that I should downsize. However any future increase in value is tax free and it is a good insurance for care home costs etc later in life.
Most of my social circle are people in their 60s/70s and nearly all of them live in equally large houses and have no intention to downsize because of the financial incentive to stay put or just can't be bothered with the hassle of moving. This totally messes up the market as the younger generation with children have to live in unsuitable smaller properties.
We won't build new housing which we need due to powerful nimby groups and a reluctance to build on green land. Goodness knows what the answer is but with millions of people competing for houses, prices can only go one way and it not a good thing.
I suppose you could argue that high houses has put money into the pockets of people who a generation ago were penniless renters and hence has equalised wealth distribution as long as you are not young.
My weekly/daily dealings with a couple of estate agents has dried up to zero this week bar a few texts.
One lists less property than the other but predicts this time of year to be adding around 10 - 12 new listings a month - I have done one property with them in April which has sold and they currently have no listings so very far away from predictions.
Another agent is in a more busy built up area, even around Christmas I’m doing a few properties per week, as I said so far this week zero, he text me to say it’s fallen off a cliff which may be dramatic but it’s the source of property.
I know this agent likes to be busy so going quiet will not be for the lack of trying, let’s see what the coming weeks bring, as a side note, last week we had a few properties but one was a landlord selling 3 apartments in the same block, all are tenanted for good rent but the LL wants out..
I thought you were poohing yourself about the prospect of your Mrs having to go into care upon your demise Mick...sounds like from reading your post you've come to terms with that possibility at least, well done...Don't the rising costs of things like heating, Council tax, maintainence too presumably, on such a large house give you pause Mick...Though I suppose you could always Air BnB or otherwise rent it when you're holidaying in Spain.
Last edited by Passenger; 30th April 2022 at 09:41.
I am fortunate in having a good pension so I can easily cover all of my outgoings.
I don't have any intentions of renting out, it simply is not worth the hassle. I just want the easy life now a days.
You're not wrong about the rising costs Passenger.
Mick's correct in that it's a great tax free (at the moment) investment for most people but the rocketing costs of the upkeep of the big old house is becoming harder to justify.
There is no real justification for just me and the wife living in a large house except that we will have lived there for 40yrs in a couple of months time and regard it as home.
The running costs are high and we now employ people to help maintain it but fortunately the mortgage is a distant memory and I easily afford it. The problem is that there is no real incentive for people in my age group to downsize.
If I got really skint I could do an equity release and the more valuable the property, the better the release income will be. So in reality we would be mad to downsize.
It's almost like retirees are being incentivised to hog their large properties and when they do expire their mortal coil, they can leave a good pile to their kids.
The system is in need of a review.
Not sure I agree Mick
We still have 2 of the kids at home with no sign of them leaving.
I am currently just shy of £500 a month on gas and electricity which will double with the new increases.
With council tax and water that's another 4.2K which means it's about 16K before any maintenance.
Even with a half decent pension that's going to take a big chunk when retired so I'm on the other side of things and see no option but to sell and downsize.
It then allows you to enjoy yourself when retired and not just have an asset for your kids.
You will still have an asset but just a smaller one.
I also get the idea of not selling the family home as we have been here 22 years now and the kids will go into meltdown when the time comes.Needs must though.
Or I could sell a Rolex!
When we sold a few years ago our agent said he had plenty of enquiries from people who said they wanted to downsize but probably only about 1 in 20 actually did so. The issue was people had say a 4/5 bed house and now only wanted 2/3 but still wanted a large kitchen and living room like they currently had. Unfortunately lower bedroom properties tend to have a smaller overall footprint so if these are essential you end up looking at larger properties again.
If the rising costs of living impact on this and force people to reassess...who knows
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In law's have a double fronted 4 bed semi with the loft done making it now 6 bed 3 bath. Big house but the exact same price as a bungalow in the same area so why bother moving to pay stamp and fees?
If the government gave a stamp duty exemption for people above 60 or 70 for houses worth less than a certain amount it would free up a lot of houses for families to upside into. Exemption to be used a maximum of three times or no more than every 7 years.
My parents were in a similar house, double fronted, four bedrooms, three living rooms etc. If it wasn't for the fact my mum developed serious mobility issues and they had to move to a purpose built apartment they'd still be there now for the exact reasons you state.
That's not a bad concept. Refined further to be only for "downsizing" (in terms of cost or number of bedrooms) - and it makes even more sense (to me) BUT - perhaps they would see it as a way for inheritance tax to be avoided because the parents had spent their asset. Although - that has to be good for the economy, unless spent on foreign holidays, of course.
Your point about stamp duty/fees is very valid - people forget all the costs in moving house, and that is without the redecorating/furniture etc.
To pick up Mick’s point, I do wonder who will buy all these larger houses when their owners do eventually sell (whether it be for care or estate sale).
With wages for the generations below significantly lower, pensions lower etc., I’m not exactly sure who’ll be buying them. And this coming from being in a well paid industry…
I appreciate buying a house on my own on a single income is much harder, but I couldn’t possibly afford the sort of places being mentioned, unless they were in a shit hole!
There is plenty of inheritance money floating around. If the wife and I died today, the house would sell in less that a week. The main buyers are people moving from London.
As an aside, I saw this kitchen on Rightmove. What's wrong with this picture?
I wouldn't like a mirrored end panel on my cooker.
______
Jim.
How many rings has that cooker got?
Yesterday's San Diego newspaper reported that home prices in my suburb rose 60.9% in the past 24 months.
Would love to sell, but where would I live?
It appears to be a Smeg C921PX something-or-other with a 5-zone induction hob.
______
Jim.
TJ?Yesterday's San Diego newspaper reported that home prices in my suburb rose 60.9% in the past 24 months.
Would love to sell, but where would I live?
Canada?Yesterday's San Diego newspaper reported that home prices in my suburb rose 60.9% in the past 24 months.
Would love to sell, but where would I live?
San Luis Obispo
Mexico
Friends of ours went out to Singapore in 2018 and rented their 4 bed house out for £2900 pcm. This is not far from Kingston on Thames.
They came back when COVID kicked off, but they are heading back out to work in Singapore this summer.
They have just advertised the house for £3750 pcm rental and had 5 offers. It went to bids last weekend and a family from the US relocating to be close to the American school won with a bid of £4200 pcm.
A 45% increase in rental price in 4 years.
Owning property always makes sense during times of inflation. The value always goes up and you do very nicely if you rent it out.
Well.. that really depends doesn’t it? Here, where I live, that’s not exactly true re rental. The house prices have gone up, substantially, but rental incomes are far from keeping pace. As a percentage return/yield, theyre not that great and buying anything at the current height of a market isn’t always the best policy and not without risk.
It's just a matter of time...
And factor in a bad tenant, long period of no rent received, lengthy eviction process followed by money spent on bringing place back up to standard and it is not a 'you do very nicely out of rent' experience.
My Dad purchased a house in orange county for around $800k 2 years ago, I talked to him a few weeks back and its now worth $1.6mil+, he would love to sell up and move to the middle of no where on a huge plot of land but his wife likes the OC lifestyle.Yesterday's San Diego newspaper reported that home prices in my suburb rose 60.9% in the past 24 months.
Would love to sell, but where would I live?
Heck if it were a piece of cake everyone'd be doing it.
Quoting my own post here but still the same in recent weeks, lot of buyers out there fighting for limited property, I'm dealing with retirement apartments, deceased property or large houses with 1 or 2 people rattling around in them looking to downsize, the core of the market is flat..
I've noticed this too, I'm currently redesigning an estate agents website and they're saying the same. There are currently 3 houses for sale in my village, which is extremely low for this time of year, there would normally be around 10-20.
I guess it was coming, with the stamp duty hold, so many rushed moves through to beat the deadline. I'd like to see stamp duty removed for those over 65 downsizing. There are far too many elderly couples in large family homes that want to downsize, but wouldn't due to the costs involved.
Our friends just sold their lovely (but small) two bed in a nice market town in Hertfordshire two days after it went on the market. They want to stay in the same area but there is practically nothing decent available to buy and then when something does appear it turns into a feeding frenzy.
Yep, totally weird market, loads of buyers but no sellers which begs the question where do the buyers live!
Downsizing will be a financial disaster. You sell a large house of high value with the potential for good price increases over time and exchange it for a small house with a large amount of money in the bank. The problem is 9% inflation eroding the value of those savings.
If you are old and living in a big house, that big house is the best thing to fund your time in a care home.
Inflation turns everything on its head, the last thing you need is cash.
A lot of people downsize to free up capital to do the things they want to do whilst they're still able. If a care home beckons a decade or two in the future it doesn't really matter whether you're in one that costs a fortune or one that doesn't, you make the best of what you can afford.
Last edited by Thewatchbloke; 26th May 2022 at 15:52. Reason: Typo!!
Not always. My in-laws downsized from their traditional 4 bed family home in the countryside, to a two bed semi in our village, where their son also lives. They no longer need to buy heating oil, the new house has double glazing and is well insulated, their council tax is lower and they're in walking distance of their children and grandchildren.
Had they have not down-sized the price of rising energy would have left them in serious financial trouble. Disaster averted.
Exactly. Usual know-all, know-nothing rubbish from Mick
Sounds like an excellent move, for all good reasons.
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