Reply With QuoteOriginally Posted by mr noble
Sorry mr noble. I lied.
If I was Raffe, I would methodically go back through your back posts for 18 months and cross reference. But, I can’t be arsed and will take you at your word.
Probably a good move when you sold one investment property at the turn of the year. You can always buy back in a bit cheaper.
Sorry mr noble. I lied.
To be pedantic, we were talking about when rates would peak and when they’d start being cut. So I was right in that paragraph above.
But yes, you win a point for the fact rates have gone a bit higher than I thought they would.
If we look back in 5 years, they will have a brief pop over 5% and then straight back down again.
Are you Raffe?
I can only aspire to his searching and investigative greatness.Are you Raffe?
I am a mere mortal and humble student in his presence.
If we are critically assessing predictions how’s the 30% drop prediction coming on?
i think sellers are coming round to the fact that the covid boom is well and truly over, seen a few properties that have come on at reasonable prices which leads me to believe so. Still couldn't afford it with the IR at the current rate but some signs of hope.
According to Rightmove average price reductions of around 6 percent...According to my sister, working for an EA in Banbury, 5 to 10 percent price reductions and sales volume down by around 30 per cent , round that way. Obvs considerable geographic variance.
Last edited by Passenger; 18th September 2023 at 09:46.
Sounds in line with what is going on in my area (North Kent) ... low volume holding up prices.
Minimum EPC levels now scrapped. Epically good news for landlords like myself with properties sat in 'D' band.
Markets are expecting one more interest rate hike this month then dropping from May 24.
Where did you hear that? Link?
Interesting, thanks.
It's on the BBC website, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-66863110
Scroll down to announcement at 18:15 :-). Bloody lovely news!!!
Just seen on C4 news. Makes sense, Sunak desperate… but it’s a result for me.
I wonder how many landlords based their decision to sell on the issue of getting the property up to a C band?
I bet there are lots who will be cursing right now.
So you are already convinced u-turning on rules is indefinite?
Interesting, sounds like desperation.
Whereabouts in N Kent are you?
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According to the BBC yesterday, average prices rose around 1% in the year to July.
I live near Canterbury, in a rural area.
Many I expect. The EPC is a poor measure and the C target was unrealistic for much of the UK housing stock so this had to happen.
This may ease the exit a little but there is still a lot of reasons for landlords to exit.
Gotcha. Thought we might be neighbours but I'm in the far north...
Until Labour get in.
And EPC will be the least of your worries then.
My worries?
Was the 14th consecutive rate rise the last?
Certainly looks that way.
Peak at 5.25, when are we predicting the first cut will happen?
I read May 24 but that was assuming a rate rise today, which didn't happen. Could well be a further rise before the fall.
End of 2024 I reckon. Inflation will need to be below 3%. Of course if the economy craters it may come sooner
5-4 vote, so hardly overwhelming.
It assume it will be on a case by case basis dependent on incoming data.
Last I read the BOE, one of their grand fromages hoped, they anticipate being within spitting distance of 3 percent by mid 2024.
Conversely, an ex BOE committee member talking on World At One today was saying inflation is far from being in control and that today is probably a pause rather than a peak.
Marvellous, who doesn't love a bit of volatility.
I'd concur with that outlook.
The reality is that the sands are shifting daily and it's too early to call any downward trend of inflation and the resultant BoE base rate. I'd personally see "maybe" one more 0.25% increase to 5.5% for Q4 '23 and only into Q1 '24, if inflation makes any continuous downward trend by then, do we start to see any steady base rate drops.
But I'll take this decision today as a modicum of good news.
On balance me too, modicum of good news on rates.
Recession around the corner as business activity just shrank, excluding covid, at the fastest rate since the financial crisis. Could be in recession by the time of run up to the GE...interesting.
With the Government boot still firmly on the throat of private landlords, prices trending down, high mortgage rates and Labour Government not much more than 12 months away, I am sure many who got out at the top will still consider themselves the smart ones.
After all they can always buy in the same price or cheaper even with all the fees.
The EPC issue appears to be mostly noise. If the free market Tories can whack landlords around the head, just think what Labour could do.
The EPC wasn’t noise it was a game changer for any Victorian or older stock which would have been impossible to get to a C. It was a moronic policy … let’s not forget the real victims here of these policies are tenants.
Another positive sign was the two-year swap rate – a key measure lenders use to determine the cost of mortgage borrowing – dropped below 5% on Friday morning. “A nice end to the week, and potentially a positive Monday expected with further rate changes,” Mendes added.
It was 5.17% when I looked this afternoon after a meeting with one of our funding partners. Let’s see what happens next week 👍
Debt market still creeping higher. Expect the temporary nudge down in rates to reverse.
Gilt yields hit their highest mark since Liz Truss mini-budget fallout
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...b646359abca670
Yet property still goes up, still no 30% crash.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infla...index/july2023
No 30% yet, but property ain’t going up whatever that link says.
I reckon houses are easily down by 10% in my area, with flats up to 20% off Covid highs.
Flats were offers over during Covid, now plenty are 10-15% reduced on Zoopla and that is before offers.
Remember ridiculously high house prices are only good for those downsizing and BTLers.
I wouldn’t expect any property investor to talk the market down.
I’m not talking anything up or down I’m just presenting the latest sales data. Just sticking to the actual facts.
I’m sure at some point that graph may go a little negative but it won’t ever be -30%.
I just got a notification on one of the investigating platforms that financial services firm Ebury has published that it expects another BofE rate rise before the end of the year in order to shore up Sterling against $ and €.
Core inflation is still the issue. Yes, headline inflation is coming down which may even allow Sunak to say it has halved by the end of the year, but mainly as a result of falling goods prices procured outside the UK economy that are not directly connected to BOE decisions aside from slight exchange rate plays. Most analysts believe we are some time away from any base rate falls and a recession will commence in Q1 2024, then rates may need moderating late 24/early 25 to try to kick start growth. Increasing wage costs continues to fuel core inflation and that circle is not going to be broken easily with half the country seemingly striking for large pay increases.
As for any "data" showing house price increases that's laughable, as I've said before it's full of method error. Plenty of tough times still ahead, keep tin hats to hand.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ds-oil-latest/
Prices now down just 4.7% YOY.
I’m a perma-bull but am actually surprised at how well prices are holding up!
Last edited by mr noble; 6th October 2023 at 07:39.
Over here house prices overall up for a second quarter in a row.
Houses here up 472% inflation adjusted
Until we see a serious house building program, that is more than 250,000 per year the shortage will remain.
We all know what a shortage in supply means.
We’ve got a shortage of 400.000 houses om 18 mio people. Net Growth population by 200.000 people annually. That shortage problem isn’t going to be solved in my life (ever).
Me too. Not out the woods yet though.
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