Reply With QuoteWhy are you showing us pictures of people out and about in one of the more affluent areas of London?
All it tells us is that some people were Saturday shopping.
There will also have been many who weren't.
Utterly meaningless.
Pretty darned busy in Kingston Town Centre just now. Mappin & Webb said they were rushed off their feet yesterday.
Why are you showing us pictures of people out and about in one of the more affluent areas of London?
All it tells us is that some people were Saturday shopping.
There will also have been many who weren't.
Utterly meaningless.
Kingston Town centre is a tiny , tiny portion of the UK. Its an affluent area of the UK. I doubt many people there are struggling. Mappin and Webb being rushed off their feet? Their typical customers are probably in the 5% top earners in the UK. They're probably unaffected by inflation and can ride it out.
TZ members on the high street taking pictures of random people in order to report back to the forum on high street footfall. How funny.
They're all window shopping to save staying home with the heating on.
Property has always boomed and busted. I can remember my old training instructor being worried sick about an impending property crash as his son had just bought a house with a 10% deposit and could soon find himself in negative equity. This was in the late sixties.Originally Posted by noTAGlove
Today is no different than any other time.
I can't imagine any landlords will change their plans based on this.
From 2024, the allowance is going to be 3k from the current 12.3k. (6k in 2023, so below numbers are 1/3 less if doing a transaction in 2023)
Even for a 45% tax payer that is an additional tax due of £4k. (at 20% rate it is £1800)
Can't imagine any landlord would change their portfolio decisions based on this alone. Also, only matters if they sell a property of course.
(Done in haste, so hopefully my sums are correct)
I'm not selling, stopped working 18 months ago so keeping under the 40% tax band. The current CGT allowance would save me just over 2K not worth changing my plans for.
I didn’t see this in the news and I can’t find any coverage. Links?
Edits. Found it now. That slipped through the net.
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commen...anges-ii526051
That CGT tax change is going to push a load of people into CGT complications that don’t currently have to complete a tax return.
Another blow to landlords who seem to be subject to death by 1000 cuts … when the PRS continues to shrink and rents keep going up as a result life will get continually harder for renters.
Not many shops in those photos boarded up, things do look rosy if you only look at places like this, same with Bicester, lots of people buzzing around with designer bags but it’s not reality is it, most of country has high streets that are now barren bar a few betting shops and a Witherspoons.
But hey, head in sand is always reassuring..
When you are in work and things get more expensive you keep spending.
The difference is when you get made redundant, the taps turn off completely.
This crisis, if there is to be one, has barely started.
It will all start kicking off when, and if, the redundancies start feeding through.
Mass redundancies means no spendies. Then any money you do have is prioritised on food and shelter.
But will there be mass redundancies and high unemployment?
We are currently going through one of the lowest periods of unemployment ever and staff shortages are rife.
I’m not sure that we will see high unemployment this time around although people may need to take lower paid jobs than they are in at present for a while.
This, you don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog., That said the CGT changes are another Govt. action which'll deter would be entrepreneurs and investors...genius!
Isn't unemployment predicted to double next year...also aren't the figures, quite uhm 'massaged' anyway...
Last edited by Passenger; 21st November 2022 at 11:31.
I'm in agreement with you, my point was the Kingston upon Thames isn't a fair representation of the majority of the UK, nor is Mappin & Webbs customers.
For its location and history, I think Kingston is grotty, best avoided, maybe with the exception of John Lewis. Markedly declined in the last years. Broken glass, meeting place for sarf London yoof, questionable pan handlers and the very worst, talentless, whiny, over-amplified buskers to drive off the discerning shopper. Bike nicking hotspot. Plenty of watch shops, but impossible to buy a decent watch, which is odd.
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Last edited by BillyCasper; 21st November 2022 at 12:03.
Ryan loves it.
I have no idea where the other gentleman has been but Kingston Town Centre is lovely. The grotty shops shut down due to rate increases and their former customers now stay in New Malden/Tolworth etc and have been replaced by nice independent eateries and higher end chains, Bentall Centre has lots of shops and decent shopping with 3 ADs (and you can get watches - its no harder than anywhere else but of course you can't just rock in and pick up a Sub or a Snoopy) plus Louis Vuitton and Gucci are moving in soon. You have the theatre also, Imax, that new lounge cinema that's opening.
Superb Riverside location and restaurants. IMHO it is a nicer place to eat and shop than Richmond just down the road although opinions differ. Yes the bit round the back where McDonalds and Primark is could do with an upgrade but I believe that is due soon.
A high number of residents in my block are retirees who have moved to the area specifically for the lifestyle. My mum who lives in Poole (itself a nice place) says whenever she visits Kingston it's like being on holiday - of course where we are on is on the river and 100m away from the centre so YMMV if you live further out.
Nothing wrong with Kingston but it's a fair way short of Richmond. IMHO of course.
There are some fundamental differences -
In cash terms, in 1990, the average household would have had a disposable household income of £12,353, at a time when the average house cost about £57,726.By comparison, in 2020, the average household income was £37,108 and the average house price was about £234,947.
https://fullfact.org/online/house-prices-1990-2020/
I lived near there and worked in Kingston for 6 or 7 years and it’s not as posh as you’d think - a couple of huge notorious estates round the corner and not somewhere I’d go drinking late at night sadly. I’m sure it was lovely a few decades ago but just another bit of suburban sprawl now imho. It has lots of shops which attract people from far and wide , plenty of jewellers and an Apple Store, myriad coffee shops - the usual. Lots of people doesn’t always equate to lots of spending - you’ll just notice less people carrying shopping bags! (Check out the pictures, lots of people wandering about doesn’t mean they’re all rich - most don’t have any bags like the majority of shopping centres) I also suspect there are plenty of daft people out there paying £4 for a coffee whilst rocking the latest iPhone 14 who’ll be complaining they are struggling to pay the heating bills!!
You may gather I’m not a fan of that part of the world!!
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Last edited by RobDad; 22nd November 2022 at 22:50.
You could be describing anywhere in London TBH re the Council Estates. Fact of life but my understanding is the trouble in the Cambridge Estate (that's the one you are referring to) isn't as bad as it used to be. That Estate is still some 1.5 miles from the town centre so not exactly next door.
Re drinking demographics I've noticed you tend to get the typical Southwest London demographics on the Riverside bar area (lots of boys called Harry and girls called Freya basically), mainly students in the bars near the Rotunda (there's a large uni with several campuses in Kingston) and then a mix of other bars and pubs. Not sure I've ever felt unsafe out and about at night other than there are the occasional fights outside that nightclub near the Rotunda but that's to be expected.
I used to live in Streatham Hill so I guess my benchmark of what constitutes a dodgy situation of an evening is influenced by that plus I'm a big bald bloke so I'm sure there are easier looking targets than me. That being said there have been a few fatal stabbings over the last few years which is obviously devastating for family and friends of those involved - in all instances they were related to young men fighting.
Last edited by ryanb741; 23rd November 2022 at 00:37.
Ah Saint Reatham eh.
Catching up with the lag. Drip, drip, drip.
https://www.nationwidehousepriceinde...ly-in-november
I’m keeping an eye on my local outer London market, and nothing is selling. Stuff added over summer now being reduced in price, but not enough for a buyer to catch a falling knife.
Noticed some obvious BTL places coming on very recently and priced to undercut existing properties that have been on the market for a while. Obviously an attempt to get out of the market fairly intact and before the inevitable.
Only one way for house prices at the moment.
The recently announced CGT changes from next April will have added to the panic to sell BTL properties ahead of then.
Also a lot of completely deluded sellers who have not dropped their price
They think they can sell their property for the same price as one year ago when fixed mortgage rates where <2%.
Many a night spent in The Studio back in the 80s (and the ice rink in the 70s)
Used to go to the Cinema there in the 90's.
Latest market update from Property Hub here: https://youtu.be/pAPzP-k83Fg
Nice to hear btl fixed rates have been falling for the last month and are projected to fall further (Moneyfacts).
Interesting watch but the comments relayed from Zoopla that property may fall by up to 5% in some markets and increase in others during 2023 rather devalues the podcast!
Thinking about this and putting it in perspective. Even if our house were to fall 9%, it went up 23% in the last 3 years. So relatively speaking they are still high and are then said to go up again after this stumble. Also, this will be very localised. Be interesting to follow over the next few years.
Correct - never lose sight of the need to live somewhere and property being a long-term investment in a cyclical market. It does get emotional feeling like something has lost value, but it's rare for anyone to find the top or bottom of the market. I just wouldn't personally be buying just yet IF I was a cash buyer without a property to sell as it's truly difficult to make a case for prices rising over the next 12-18 months, quite the opposite.
I know you are a BTLer who wants comfort that all is A-OK.
Don't convince yourself (and it certainly doesn't convince me) that market updates from a company that has a huge, vested interest in maintaining property transactions to generate their income, while providing free books and webinars on the basis of luring people in to invest through them to make their fees, cut or kick-back. It is all about this;
https://propertyhub.net/service/invest/
Given this, do you really believe they are going to say anything different; e.g. in our latest update we are advising that stuff is going to rat-sh1t and we advise you not to use our services which will in turn put us out of business.
Last edited by noTAGlove; 1st December 2022 at 17:57.
Bloody charlatans! They've even got a weekly column in The Sunday Times!!
Who said they are charlatans? Just one of a very, very long list of companies whose income is dependent on property transactions not drying up.
So, when they or others with vested interests are asked for a comment in the Sunday Times, or other media, what do you think they are going to say?
Jeez, Torygraph in full bear and socialist mode. Who would have thunk it.
Seems like all those - poor me - landlord articles are thing of the past.
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...-house-prices/
Meanwhile, some are talking about rate cuts next year.
My prediction is that the rate cuts begin sooner than Q4.
There certainly will be a crash next year, but it won’t be house prices or landlord’s dreams, it’ll be an inflation crash. Things that go up sharply tend to come down just as sharply.
https://www.ft.com/content/aafa4892-...3-f09b1aba297a
Does anyone know how to link the non-paywalled version??
Last edited by mr noble; 4th December 2022 at 09:00.
https://archive.ph/ZaBKT
Good luck with that, but even IF interest rates do decline (and they haven’t even peaked yet), history tells us house prices take years to recover.
History never repeats itself but it often rhymes.
Interest rates peaked in 6th Oct 1989 and declined thereafter. It took well over 8 years (Q1 1998) before house prices recovered to their 1989 levels.
Similarly interest rates peaked in July 2007 and declined sharply thereafter. Almost 7 years later (Q2 2014) house prices recovered to their 2007 levels.
Sources;
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/in...nal-inflation/
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boea.../Bank-Rate.asp
Just keep saying everything is fine.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-says-halifax
This thread makes you lot look greedier than the politicians you spend half your life slagging off for being greedy.
Coming from the man asking for advice on buying a new holiday let? You are part of the “property greed is good” conversation, unless your wife has hacked your account.
Pretty sure people in this post are using their own money, or borrowed in their names - not fleeced from the taxpayers.
Buy-to-let crisis to trigger property fire sale as landlords suffer losses
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...dlords-suffer/
Atypical landlords will be alright though.
Bad news for tenants, less stock and higher rents ahead.
Many landlords stick with the better-the-devil-you-know existing tenants, as a good reliable paying tenant in the hand is worth two unknown tenants in the bush.
Wait until the recession properly hits and see how raising rents works then. Rent rises just don’t stick if the economy goes into reverse. Renters move back in with parents etc.
I am sure all those landlords who dived in with 3% gross yields (at 2% mortgage rates) on the promised nirvana of ever appreciating capital values are consoled by a rent rise that raises them to 6 feet under water, rather than the 10 feet under water they are today.
Edit 1 - some additional Torygraph bear food for you.
London landlord 'exodus' as mortgage rates destroy profits
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...stroy-profits/
“<Tommy Hughes, of We Buy Property, which purchases homes in cash at 30pc below market rate, said: “There is an absolute avalanche of landlords trying to get out. Our phone has been ringing off the hook. In the last quarter we have seen more landlords trying to exit than ever before. They’re on variable rates or coming to the end of fixed rates and the rents just can’t keep up. They just can’t refinance.”>
Edit 2 - what is it with the Torygraph? Just can’t stop with the negativity. But, it will all be OK, you can just raise rents, lol.
'We'll lose £5,000 on just one of our buy-to-lets': Landlords hit hard by Britain's mortgage chaos
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https:/...ld-lose-money/
“<In order for the property to be mortgageable, Mrs Deane would need to raise the rent by 25pc. But her tenant is on housing benefits, which have been frozen since 2020. “I do not see how this level of increase could be imposed on our tenants given their low income and the rising cost of living,” Mrs Deane said.”>
Last edited by noTAGlove; 18th December 2022 at 23:44.
How is that prediction turning out for you?
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You lose your bet with Passenger. Cough up £50 to the FR.
And in May 2023 you will have to cough up another £50.
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Thank you for the reminder...Over to you Ryan...
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