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Thread: Corona property prices

  1. #901
    Master Ruggertech's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Sounds like an excellent move, for all good reasons.
    No no, of course its not a good move! You have to stay in a five bedroom behemoth, which is cold, draughty, and ruinous to try and heat anyway. Where you can no longer look after the garden or get upstairs. Where all your friends have moved away to bungalows by the sea or near their families. Where your own family are miles away and you can no longer afford to go and visit them, and the drive is too tiring anyway. Where you can't have a meal out or a holiday because your wealth is tied up in it.
    But it will all be worth it when you need to go into a care home, apparently.

  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
    Exactly. Usual know-all, know-nothing rubbish from Mick
    Starting an argument for nothing eh.

    The cost of heating should not be a consideration for people who live in a large house in their sixties and seventies and probably cleared their mortgages years ago.

    If you want to sell your best asset during an inflationary period then go ahead, it's your funeral not mine.

  3. #903
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Starting an argument for nothing eh.

    The cost of heating should not be a consideration for people who live in a large house in their sixties and seventies and probably cleared their mortgages years ago.

    If you want to sell your best asset during an inflationary period then go ahead, it's your funeral not mine.
    So what would you say to your theory when property prices start to drop? before you say it property can drop while inflation rages, -10% of a £800k property = £80k while a £250k property would be £25k leaving you £55k better off and to spend on care homes if thats your future..

  4. #904
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    Property prices alway go up and down but during periods of inflation they nearly always go up. You need to think long term or when the house will be sold. It's almost a certainty that property prices will be higher in say three years time that what they are today.

    The people who did well out of inflation during the 1970/80s when it hit 26% lived in large houses with a pile of debt being charged a "measly" mortgage rate of 12%.

    Basically the rules change during inflation and we have at least two more years of it, so act accordingly.

  5. #905
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Property prices alway go up and down but during periods of inflation they nearly always go up. You need to think long term or when the house will be sold. It's almost a certainty that property prices will be higher in say three years time that what they are today.

    The people who did well out of inflation during the 1970/80s when it hit 26% lived in large houses with a pile of debt being charged a "measly" mortgage rate of 12%.

    Basically the rules change during inflation and we have at least two more years of it, so act accordingly.
    Once again you have selectively forgotten the late 80s/early 90s when inflation was 10% and house prices dropped -30%. One bed flats and studios -50%.

    But, carry on being selective.

  6. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Once again you have selectively forgotten the late 80s/early 90s when inflation was 10% and house prices dropped -30%. One bed flats and studios -50%.

    But, carry on being selective.
    Did I not say that prices of property always goes up and down but during times of inflation prices usually rise more than what they fall.

    A fall of 30% is immaterial if a decade is taken into account. You can bet your bottom Dollar that those house prices recovered with a vengeance. I bought my first house for £2750 and sold it just less than two years later for £7120.

  7. #907
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Starting an argument for nothing eh.

    Blah….
    No. Just stating a fact

  8. #908
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Once again you have selectively forgotten the late 80s/early 90s when inflation was 10% and house prices dropped -30%. One bed flats and studios -50%.

    But, carry on being selective.
    We could be heading for some very negative times, even if we said not as bad as late 80s/early 90s but around -20% thats £100k down on a £500k property.

    Yes property does go up over a long period but if your at a key age in a large house then now is the time to cash in, you simply may not be around to see it climb back to where it currently is..

  9. #909
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post

    Inflation turns everything on its head, the last thing you need is cash.
    Unless you want to spend it - it’s not going to help you when your 6 feet under

  10. #910
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    A lot of very pessimistic people around when there's a bit of inflation and the government is splashing the cash to try to offset its effects

    My prediction is we'll be over it by the end of the year.

  11. #911
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    A lot of very pessimistic people around when there's a bit of inflation and the government is splashing the cash to try to offset its effects

    My prediction is we'll be over it by the end of the year.
    Uhm the cash splash is itself inflationary, it does nothing to address the underlying inequalities, the wages crisis and other factors, nice to live in hope though.

    what say 50 quid to the fund raiser...I predict it won´t be over by the end of the year and BOE won´t have it back to the their target of 2 PER CENT...for charidee and shiggles.
    Last edited by Passenger; 27th May 2022 at 07:25.

  12. #912
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    A lot of very pessimistic people around when there's a bit of inflation and the government is splashing the cash to try to offset its effects

    My prediction is we'll be over it by the end of the year.
    I agree that there's too much gloom and doom when in reality many will do well out of a small spell of inflation.

    However inflation is a world wide thing and it takes quite a long time to phase out price increases that have been imposed by suppliers over the last few months. I suspect it will take at least two years to get back to 2% but it's not the disaster that the usual old moaners claim it will be.

  13. #913
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I agree won't be at 2 percent by end of year but will be this time next year. Let's have 2 fundraiser bets - if over 3% for end Dec I'll stick £50 in fundraiser and if over 2.5% in May 2023 I'll stick another £50 in. You take the opposite bet.

  14. #914
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    I'm not a gambler on that scale but I think you'd lose those bets Ryan

    Edit - as its for charity I'll take half the bet - so £25
    Last edited by Halitosis; 27th May 2022 at 08:17.

  15. #915
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halitosis View Post
    I'm not a gambler on that scale but I think you'd lose those bets Ryan
    Well if I do the 2 x £50 will be worth a lot less anyway :)

  16. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I agree won't be at 2 percent by end of year but will be this time next year. Let's have 2 fundraiser bets - if over 3% for end Dec I'll stick £50 in fundraiser and if over 2.5% in May 2023 I'll stick another £50 in. You take the opposite bet.
    O.K. then on those terms.

  17. #917
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    O.K. then on those terms.
    Perfect, good luck!

  18. #918
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Perfect, good luck!
    Thanks and to you.

  19. #919
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Perfect, good luck!
    I’m rooting for you Ryan…. I think Passenger might be too!!

  20. #920
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfie View Post
    I’m rooting for you Ryan…. I think Passenger might be too!!
    Indeed, hope for the best but prepare for the worst...I just read one estimate that it, inflation could peak in the UK around 14 per cent by October this year...with the best will in world honestly can't see how it could by anywere near 2.5 per cent 6 months or so later but we'll see.

  21. #921
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Indeed, hope for the best but prepare for the worst...I just read one estimate that it, inflation could peak in the UK around 14 per cent by October this year...with the best will in world honestly can't see how it could by anywere near 2.5 per cent 6 months or so later but we'll see.
    The reason would be that inflation 6 months on from October would be May 2023 and measured against May 2022 so do we think inflation will increase massively then on the high inflation rates we are currently seeing?

  22. #922
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The reason would be that inflation 6 months on from October would be May 2023 and measured against May 2022 so do we think inflation will increase massively then on the high inflation rates we are currently seeing?
    Bet's made we'll see.

  23. #923
    Both 5 year and 10 year Gilts have risen by around 1.5% since the start of the year, and likely to go higher.

    This majorly impacts fixed rate mortgages by a similar amount.

    Typically a 1% rise in mortgage rates equal a 10% drop in house prices based on same affordability.

    Once momentum has run out of steam, looks like 15% drops could be common.

    Then couple that with further reduced affordability due to high inflation and reduced purchasing power.

    House prices are going to be under significant pressure going forward.

  24. #924
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Both 5 year and 10 year Gilts have risen by around 1.5% since the start of the year, and likely to go higher.

    This majorly impacts fixed rate mortgages by a similar amount.

    Typically a 1% rise in mortgage rates equal a 10% drop in house prices based on same affordability.

    Once momentum has run out of steam, looks like 15% drops could be common.

    Then couple that with further reduced affordability due to high inflation and reduced purchasing power.

    House prices are going to be under significant pressure going forward.
    Houses did pretty well in the 70s with high inflation and interest rates; they actually outpaced inflation be some considerable margin.

  25. #925
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Houses did pretty well in the 70s with high inflation and interest rates; they actually outpaced inflation be some considerable margin.
    But 1970s were not proceeded by virtually uninterrupted 27 year house price growth like you have today.

  26. #926
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    But 1970s were not proceeded by virtually uninterrupted 27 year house price growth like you have today.
    I'm not sure the preceding period was relevant to the future ... we will see but I'm not expecting a correction of any significance unless we see some significant increases in interest rates; say over 5%

  27. #927
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Houses did pretty well in the 70s with high inflation and interest rates; they actually outpaced inflation be some considerable margin.
    A detached family house cost the same as a loaf of bread back then.

  28. #928
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    Well I just had an offer agreed on a property so cue the housing market crash in 3....2.....1......

  29. #929
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Well I just had an offer agreed on a property so cue the housing market crash in 3....2.....1......
    Hopefully it will be OK for you - though we recently enquired about selling our house and despite a crazily high suggested value (up more than 35% in two years and local houses selling like hotcakes) the thought that the market may well be starting to get sticky meant we couldn't be doing with the potential stress. No real need to sell so we'll stay put for now.

  30. #930
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    Next month we will move into a new build. The site manager has told me the base price of the next two groups (2 houses in each) of our model of house will be increasing by £20k & £40k respectively! All down to increase in cost and shortage of cement apparently. Be interesting to see how the prices stabalise over the next ten years

    Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk

  31. #931
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    Quote Originally Posted by JonRA View Post
    Hopefully it will be OK for you -
    Cheers. It's my 'dream' house (well, within reason!) and I'll be in it for the long term so any coming dips will hopefully even out over time. The EA is one of the better ones in the area and I expressed to him that I was concerned that I may have paid too much (I got it £15k under asking price but I wanted to pay £25k under) and he pointed out that that the lenders will value it and will flag up if it's deemed that I am paying too much. At least that's the theory.

    I've been looking to buy for at least 12 months and the area I'm moving to (Gloucester) is still absolutely crazy with housing going significantly over asking. I viewed one a few weeks ago with a builder friend and after looking around he basically said it's a money pit as the wall that was knocked through in the kitchen wasn't done correctly so the one side of the house is moving plus there was a cracked drain and significant water damage to the floors. While we were there the EA said they'd just had an offer on it significantly over asking and my builder mate said 'they are going to get burnt!'. The EA agreed but said 'people are still willing to pay over asking on the nicer areas'. Scary stuff! I made sure I took the builder with me on the one I'm now buying!

  32. #932
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Well I just had an offer agreed on a property so cue the housing market crash in 3....2.....1......
    Congratulations. Doesn't matter really as it's your long term dream home and crashes don't last forever. Good luck and enjoy your new home.

  33. #933
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    Quote Originally Posted by JonRA View Post
    Hopefully it will be OK for you - though we recently enquired about selling our house and despite a crazily high suggested value (up more than 35% in two years and local houses selling like hotcakes) the thought that the market may well be starting to get sticky meant we couldn't be doing with the potential stress. No real need to sell so we'll stay put for now.
    Fixing for 5 years?

  34. #934
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Fixing for 5 years?
    I'm too old for a mortgage...

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  35. #935
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    Quote Originally Posted by JonRA View Post
    I'm too old for a mortgage...

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    Touché

  36. #936
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Congratulations. Doesn't matter really as it's your long term dream home and crashes don't last forever. Good luck and enjoy your new home.
    Many thanks. Just told my ultra pessimistic parents expecting them to 'dampen the mood' but amazingly they love it and have given me their blessing so to speak. Am proper excited now! Just hope the chain doesn't break!

  37. #937
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    Had a different experience recently, saw a house on Rightmove that had been on for a while and then disappeared, then reappeared.

    So one morning whilst running as few errands I decide to drive by and check out the road, parking, actual outside of the house etc.

    As I pulled up the estate agent was there and thought I was her next viewing, explained the situation i.e. saw it was back on and was bring nosey.

    She let me take a look inside, told me she had 4 viewings that morning, and ask her if I had any questions.

    My normal experience is that they don't let you view unless you pre-arange and then hit you with we have so much interest you better be quick.

    I don't know if she's a smart EA or business is slowing down.

    Nonetheless it was a nice non-pushy experience, she gave me her card and said if I wanted to take another look to get in touch.

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  38. #938
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    After a miserable six months of the process we finally managed to exchange and will move next Friday. We feel very fortunate to have been able to fix for 5 years at 1.3% - the same product is now £350 per month more expensive in interest alone. My only regret is not taking the same deal for 10 years!

    I think the market will surely now slow very significantly and maybe we’ll see house prices fall. Mortgage rate rises are really going to hit hard

  39. #939
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    My mate is trying to sell his late mums bungalow in a sought after area in Leicester at a similar price to others in the area and they have had one buyer get them to drop the price then pulled out did an open house viewing this weekend and no one turned up, on our estate houses are normally gone in a week but one has gone up round the corner 6 weeks ago and hasn’t sold my mums house was put on the market last sept and sold in a week with 14 offers not sure if this small snapshot means anything or not ?

  40. #940

    Corona property prices

    Quote Originally Posted by Michael 38 View Post
    not sure if this small snapshot means anything or not ?
    I would say that going from 14 offers 9 months ago, to no viewing today tells a lot about the market, at least in your area.

    As interest rates ramp up it has the potential to get a lot worse for the housing market, as the price gap between every rung of every ladder is maxed out in every way.

    Party is over, and pain is on its way IMO.

  41. #941
    BofE announced today that 40% of fixed rate mortgages are due to expire by the end of 2023. Add in rapidly rising interest rates and what could possibly go wrong. Tick tock.........

    Oh, that and the BofE are supporting the Government proposal for 50 year inter-generational mortgages. Anything to keep the house of cards propped up at all costs.

  42. #942
    i’m still signed up to the rightmove alerts for when we were looking and it’s gone from an email every other day with at at least one new property to an email several days apart with ‘recently reduced’, the agents can’t be very busy now but it was manic from January to April round here (SE19)
    still to exchange but thankfully our deal is valid for another couple of months but it’s only 2 years fixed, at least we know whats coming and can prepare.

  43. #943
    Quote Originally Posted by MrSmith View Post
    i’m still signed up to the rightmove alerts for when we were looking and it’s gone from an email every other day with at at least one new property to an email several days apart with ‘recently reduced’, the agents can’t be very busy now but it was manic from January to April round here (SE19)
    still to exchange but thankfully our deal is valid for another couple of months but it’s only 2 years fixed, at least we know whats coming and can prepare.
    Can’t believe anyone in the market didn’t take 10 year fix recently. Some of the lowest interest rates ever seen. The 10 year fix was something like 1.99% with Barclays. Only one way for interest rates to go.

    5% base rates now being talked about at the end of 2023, so potential mortgage rates of 7%.

    That’s a shock to the system when people come of their 1% short term fixed teaser rate.

    As for prices, on Zoopla (which tracks asking price reductions) I am seeing flats take a tumble in my area, Kingston and Surbiton. Vastly overpriced for what they are, 25% reductions are happening, but more like the 10-12% redux range.

    First flats, then houses. If interest rates do get to 5% and mortgage rates 7% in the next couple of years as hinted by the BofE, there will be carnage.

  44. #944
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrSmith View Post
    i’m still signed up to the rightmove alerts for when we were looking and it’s gone from an email every other day with at at least one new property to an email several days apart with ‘recently reduced’,.
    I've noticed the same. It also appears agents are being a bit cute with some of the listings as I can see some stuff that has been listed before pinging up as "new" and other properties claiming to be "reduced" at what appears to be the same price.

    The taxpayer money used to subsidise SDLT relief and artificially inflate the housing market continues to look like money badly spent...

  45. #945
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Can’t believe anyone in the market didn’t take 10 year fix recently. Some of the lowest interest rates ever seen. The 10 year fix was something like 1.99% with Barclays.
    Bit of a sweeping generalisation that! There are a variety of reasons why that may not always be viable.
    I was a FTB last year and fixed for 5 years, which was the best I could reasonably do. I don’t even recall a 10 year fix being offered for my LTV, at least not with a half reasonable rate. Given what I’m paying for 5 year fix, a 10 year fix wouldn’t have been a sensible choice.

    I agree with your latter points though. The over-exposure must be staggering for some.

  46. #946
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    People seem to miss the fact that interest rates not only affect the cost of mortgages, but also the cost of debt, more importantly the BofE and governments own debt interest.

    There will be a point at which the government cannot afford to service the UK’s debt bill now it’s printed so much new money. That was never a thing back in 2008 and before. Things have changed and high interest rates are the government’s worst enemy now.

    I’m expecting to see interest rates peak towards the end of this year and then start coming down again.

    Can’t see the base rate getting to 4% let alone 5%. Not for a long time, if ever.

  47. #947
    Things are still moving quickly near me, one of my neighbours put his house up for £550k, its much nicer and bigger than mine so was tempted to try buy it, he put it up on Friday, had viewings on Saturday and sold it Monday for substantially more than the asking price. At a guess it went for £650k, which is more inline with houses that size in this area.

    As above, I have been looking to move but for something bigger and nicer the jump is price is huge, £200k+, which I cant justify at this moment in time.

  48. #948
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    Quote Originally Posted by NikGixer750 View Post
    Things are still moving quickly near me, one of my neighbours put his house up for £550k, its much nicer and bigger than mine so was tempted to try buy it, he put it up on Friday, had viewings on Saturday and sold it Monday for substantially more than the asking price. At a guess it went for £650k, which is more inline with houses that size in this area.

    As above, I have been looking to move but for something bigger and nicer the jump is price is huge, £200k+, which I cant justify at this moment in time.
    Narrow that down to an area?

  49. #949
    On the market a couple of days before selling, pricey for a unique fixer upper opportunity!

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124012694

  50. #950
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougair View Post
    On the market a couple of days before selling, pricey for a unique fixer upper opportunity!

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124012694
    Wow. Makes Gloucestershire prices look like a bargain.

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