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Thread: Lockdown easing?

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Exactly this. Itís apparent in this thread that people are mostly concerned by the 2m rule. The chance of that woman jogging by you for 2 seconds transmitting a virus or person going backwards against the arrows in Tesco is minimal risk compared to cross contamination of objects. When this crisis started, the main message was wash your hands and the distancing statistic was 2m for 15 mins., yet everyone seems to be hung up on the permanent 2m bubble.

    very bad advice.





    People can catch COVID-19 from others who have the virus. The disease spreads primarily from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth, which are expelled when a person with COVID-19 coughs, sneezes, or speaks. These droplets are relatively heavy, do not travel far and quickly sink to the ground. People can catch COVID-19 if they breathe in these droplets from a person infected with the virus. This is why it is important to stay at least 1 metre (3 feet) away from others. These droplets can land on objects and surfaces around the person such as tables, doorknobs and handrails. People can become infected by touching these objects or surfaces, then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. This is why it is important to wash your hands regularly with soap and water or clean with alcohol-based hand rub.

    WHO is assessing ongoing research on the ways that COVID-19 is spread and will continue to share updated findings.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by village View Post
    We can't stay in lockdown forever.....the economy will collapse and we will all turn into Morlocks. There will be a gradual easing over a period of weeks/months as different phases are initiated. Various businesses will be allowed to open again as long as initially social distancing is still adhered to. Pubs and restaurants? Difficult to say in my opinion. The Spanish are, in phases, opening up these businesses but only to something like 30% capacity and also restricting certain times to older people only. Will any one restaurant find it economically viable to open if they can only use 30% of their capacity? Who knows.
    I reckon schools will open at least after May half term,maybe before,but not all at once. Maybe something like staggered days e.g. for a comprehensive years 7&8 Mon & Tues, years 9-11 Wed-Fri??
    Travel will slowly return but probably not to the same peak as it was and this will also depend on conditions. For instance,I suspect that businesses will not feel like they have to send people all round the world to the same extent now and also ,until such time as there is no rule to isolate new arrivals into a country, then there won't be much point to holiday/business flights.

    At the end of the day the world will turn and everybody will just get on with their daily business.


    Interestingly my dad was just telling me about 1968 when my parents were married. That was when the Asian or Hong Kong Flu pandemic struck. There were about 80,000 deaths in the U.K. There was no lockdown,everybody carried on exactly as normal and the world returned to normal. The point is not how things might have turned out if the same sort of restrictions as we are seeing now had been carried out in 1968 but that,however terrible,pandemics happen and everything eventually carries on as before.
    I don't think secondary schools will be open before may half term. Even June is looking unrealistic at the moment. If they do reopen it will be intially for year 10's only. There is no way you can operate social distancing in a large comprehensive if you have more than one year group at a time.

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    The most frightening thing to me is the fine line where lives saved by having lockdown in the first place and continuing it, against lockdown itself and the devastation to the economy and the lives that will be lost by that. Either option is an unknown quantity I guess and it comes down to the lesser of two evils. An almost impossible call to make. It will be so easy to look back in hindsight and say we should have done x.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    The most frightening thing to me is the fine line where lives saved by having lockdown in the first place and continuing it, against lockdown itself and the devastation to the economy and the lives that will be lost by that. Either option is an unknown quantity I guess and it comes down to the lesser of two evils. An almost impossible call to make. It will be so easy to look back in hindsight and say we should have done x.
    its an impossible situation you are correct, but as that american senator said you cant work,pay taxes,be free if you are dead (or words to that effect).

    I do not know the answer but I am sure we could be doing better.

  5. #55
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    I agree you can catch it directly from other people, but I think the chances of catching it from a person running by for 5 seconds is minimal compared to contact transfer. Someone stood directly by me hacking away would concern me but having someone pass by with zero contact and not coughing wouldn’t worry me too much. If I catch this, I reckon it will be through handling some shopping at the supermarket or using a self-checkout or cash machine.

    I’m not knocking you for trying to get your risk down to zero btw. I guess a lot of this comes down to perception of risk. If this were Ebola or if I had an underlying health problem or was older, I’d then be wary of that woman running by me.

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Exactly this. Itís apparent in this thread that people are mostly concerned by the 2m rule. The chance of that woman jogging by you for 2 seconds transmitting a virus or person going backwards against the arrows in Tesco is minimal risk compared to cross contamination of objects. When this crisis started, the main message was wash your hands and the distancing statistic was 2m for 15 mins., yet everyone seems to be hung up on the permanent 2m bubble.
    I'm certainly not "hung up on the permanent 2m bubble" in any way. When taking the dog out once a day I try to stay at least 5-10 meters from people if at all possible. The only time that isn't always possible is the 50 metres or so I have to walk on a footpath. If possible I cross the road if anyone is on my side, or especially if puffing joggers or cyclists are coming. You may think it's a minimal risk but I'm not prepared to take it. This isn't necessarily something you can say I'll try harder next time. There may not be a next time.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Exactly this. Itís apparent in this thread that people are mostly concerned by the 2m rule. The chance of that woman jogging by you for 2 seconds transmitting a virus or person going backwards against the arrows in Tesco is minimal risk compared to cross contamination of objects. When this crisis started, the main message was wash your hands and the distancing statistic was 2m for 15 mins., yet everyone seems to be hung up on the permanent 2m bubble.
    I came out of the supermarket yesterday and idly watched a guys vape cloud drift 20 meters down the street. Pretty sure 2m is not a safe figure tbh.

  8. #58
    My suggestion is why donít we wait and see what it will actually be next week, but whether we actually get any dates
    will depend on whether the 5 tests have been met.

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    I agree. As has been said, many people are already unilaterally relaxing their lockdown. Any official easing will be difficult to manage. But then again, there will have to be some (probably very long) transition period before we eventually get back to normal (fingers crossed).
    And yet I just read Germany is about to reintroducing lockdown again after they just lifted it

  10. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    I came out of the supermarket yesterday and idly watched a guys vape cloud drift 20 meters down the street. Pretty sure 2m is not a safe figure tbh.
    It isnít an airborne virus, see bwest76ís earlier post.

  11. #61
    I do domestic damp proofing and plastering, Iím hoping soon for some dates on when to start back from the government but until I hear a clear date Iím not starting as Iím not risking get sued down the line by a no win no fee , I can already see the adverts ď have you been affected by Coronavirus?Ē
    Iím a Ltd company so am getting a little back on the wages but not alot

  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    I came out of the supermarket yesterday and idly watched a guys vape cloud drift 20 meters down the street. Pretty sure 2m is not a safe figure tbh.
    Vape droplet is about 0.05 micron whereas a cough droplet averages about 160x that value. Donít get me wrong, if I have the opportunity, I definitely will give myself extra distance against someone hacking away or sneezing 2m from me!

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by TBKBABAB View Post
    It isnít an airborne virus, see bwest76ís earlier post.
    I know - just thought it could attach to vape droplets / mist but I see from post above thatís not a thing

  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    I know - just thought it could attach to vape droplets / mist but I see from post above thatís not a thing
    Allegedly vaping/smoking confers some protection against COVID-19.

  15. #65
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    Lockdown easing?

    Quote Originally Posted by TBKBABAB View Post
    Think it was about 30,000 and even with better vaccines and advances in medical science in general the current average for flu deaths in the U.K. is about 10,000.
    Nope....80,000




    Edit: just noticed at cross purposes.... my fault for mentioning both Asian and Hong Kong Flu in my original post when referring to 1968 when that was specifically Hong Kong.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by village; 3rd May 2020 at 19:08.

  16. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Allegedly vaping/smoking confers some protection against COVID-19.
    Isn't others vaping we're worried about here?

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Allegedly vaping/smoking confers some protection against COVID-19.
    Hardly good advice or something that should be promoted?

    Not suggesting you are Ryan BTW.
    Last edited by Chris_in_the_UK; 3rd May 2020 at 19:17.
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Good idea. The 2 meter rule doesn't seem to apply to cyclists puffing and panting as they go past right next to the footpath.
    Had this today. I made my discomfort known in no uncertain terms.

  19. #69
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    The only reason for lock down was to flatten the curve and protect the NHS.
    Even if the R value gets below one and stays below it people will still get infected and will still die.
    All that will happen is the NHS will be able to cope with demands on it's services and the dead won't pile up greater than the crematoria can deal with.

    For at least 2 million people (those who have been instructed to shield for 12 weeks) catching CV-19 is a death sentence.
    Whatever decision is made about lock down will not change this. The only thing that will help those people is a vaccine

  20. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    And yet I just read Germany is about to reintroducing lockdown again after they just lifted it
    Now this is really interesting, have you any more info?

  21. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by village View Post
    Nope....80,000




    Edit: just noticed at cross purposes.... my fault for mentioning both Asian and Hong Kong Flu in my original post when referring to 1968 when that was specifically Hong Kong.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I wasnít confusing Asian with Hong Kong and think that estimate may be stretching it somewhat and probably includes 68-70 and maybe 72 as well, the same strain occurred in all those years.

  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Now this is really interesting, have you any more info?
    It isn't true. The Robert Koch institute announced today that the R0 figure is 0.74 which is only just above what it was when they ended lockdown.

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    It isn't true. The Robert Koch institute announced today that the R0 figure is 0.74 which is only just above what it was when they ended lockdown.
    Ah cool, was going to be pretty material if it were the case.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    I'm certainly not "hung up on the permanent 2m bubble" in any way. When taking the dog out once a day I try to stay at least 5-10 meters from people if at all possible. The only time that isn't always possible is the 50 metres or so I have to walk on a footpath. If possible I cross the road if anyone is on my side, or especially if puffing joggers or cyclists are coming. You may think it's a minimal risk but I'm not prepared to take it. This isn't necessarily something you can say I'll try harder next time. There may not be a next time.

    thats how i do it, you cant see it coming and you wont know immediately if you got it,its not like a wave or a falling tree.

    what scared me was seeing some tough old paras and others succumbing to it,my sister in law and 2 young nieces have had it and thankfully recovered.

    each to their own but I am belt and braces better to careful than to cavalier.
    Last edited by bwest76; 3rd May 2020 at 20:43.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    It isn't true. The Robert Koch institute announced today that the R0 figure is 0.74 which is only just above what it was when they ended lockdown.
    Yes quite right. I checked where I read it online (here https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/g...gain-jgbsl5xp6 )

    And this was 4 days ago. Situation fluid to say the least.

  26. #76
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    A Nobel prize winner airing some other viewpoints. Worth a watch


  27. #77
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    About the Hong Kong flu: I remember that. I was 10 y/old and both my parents were struck by that flu. Which was very weird for me: my parents - and certainly not my mother- were hardly ever ill. Now, both of them. Without brothers and sisters, I had to cook for myself. My first experience with cooking. A nice lady-neighbour two doors down the street kept an eye on me but gave me 'space' to figure it all out myself. In a way, that flu helped me growing, so to speak.

    The Hong Kong flu was known overhere as the 'Mao-flu'.

  28. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Senninha View Post
    A Nobel prize winner airing some other viewpoints. Worth a watch
    He's a structural biologist not an epidemiologist.

  29. #79
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    Iíve been reading that 2m will become 1m soon as a practical way out of lockdown and also that in the workplace you canít hotdesk or share equipment but wonít have to observe 2m. I think again, avoiding the contact transfer is the key but Iím not sure how that will go down with those who want a strict 2m bubble.

  30. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Iíve been reading that 2m will become 1m soon as a practical way out of lockdown and also that in the workplace you canít hotdesk or share equipment but wonít have to observe 2m. I think again, avoiding the contact transfer is the key but Iím not sure how that will go down with those who want a strict 2m bubble.

    Mask wearing will help for sure, regular hand sanitising and so on.

  31. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Mask wearing will help for sure, regular hand sanitising and so on.
    There is no medical evidence that wearing a mask in public is helpful or not. None of us are medically qualified to comment on this. It just makes you feel safer.

    I am 71 and high risk due to a heart condition and am more likely to end up in ICU, so I intend to continue self isolating for my own good and that of the over loaded health services. Old people are the ones who are soaking up services and they are being selfish by wandering around in busy town centres. School kids, on the other hand, seem a very low risk so it makes sense to get them back to school. The strategy needs to be made to take social and age differences into account.

  32. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    I agree you can catch it directly from other people, but I think the chances of catching it from a person running by for 5 seconds is minimal compared to contact transfer. Someone stood directly by me hacking away would concern me but having someone pass by with zero contact and not coughing wouldnít worry me too much. If I catch this, I reckon it will be through handling some shopping at the supermarket or using a self-checkout or cash machine.

    Iím not knocking you for trying to get your risk down to zero btw. I guess a lot of this comes down to perception of risk. If this were Ebola or if I had an underlying health problem or was older, Iíd then be wary of that woman running by me.
    I saw a virologist from Cambridge University taking questions on a phone in on the Beeb the other day.
    His comments on the wearing of masks was that the chances of catching the virus outside in the open air, going about your normal business and passing people in the street are virually zero as the breath would be so diluted. It's when people are inside in static air that the virus is at it's most transeferable.
    However, if wearing masks outside gives some degree of confidence and reassurance then fill your boots.

    What I find baffling is seeing people walk pass my house in masks when there's no other people within 100 yards of them.

  33. #83
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    There is no medical evidence that wearing a mask in public is helpful or not. None of us are medically qualified to comment on this. It just makes you feel safer.

    I am 71 and high risk due to a heart condition and am more likely to end up in ICU, so I intend to continue self isolating for my own good and that of the over loaded health services. Old people are the ones who are soaking up services and they are being selfish by wandering around in busy town centres. School kids, on the other hand, seem a very low risk so it makes sense to get them back to school. The strategy needs to be made to take social and age differences into account.

    There is plenty of evidence that a mask helps to prevent spread as it traps larger droplets which contain virus when you sneeze or cough. It is the norm in Asia whenever you are sick to wear a mask and is a sign of consideration towards your fellow man.

    Your approach is commendable btw - if everyone in a high risk group adopted the same approach we would A get through this quicker and B minimise the economic impact so well done, and yes a segmented approach should be taken to easing lockdown for sure.

  34. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Dee View Post
    I saw a virologist from Cambridge University taking questions on a phone in on the Beeb the other day.
    His comments on the wearing of masks was that the chances of catching the virus outside in the open air, going about your normal business and passing people in the street are virually zero as the breath would be so diluted. It's when people are inside in static air that the virus is at it's most transeferable.
    However, if wearing masks outside gives some degree of confidence and reassurance then fill your boots.

    What I find baffling is seeing people walk pass my house in masks when there's no other people within 100 yards of them.
    What I find baffling is that people are willing to take the word of anyone they see on TV as gospel, without doing any other research.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  35. #85
    Grand Master Seamaster73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    What I find baffling is that people are willing to take the word of anyone they see on TV as gospel, without doing any other research.
    Especially on the BBC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    What I find baffling is that people are willing to take the word of anyone they see on TV as gospel, without doing any other research.
    Not taking anyone's word, just offering what I've seen, which is what a lot of those here are doing, aren't they?
    This is, after all, the lockdown easing thread, isn't it? The wearing of masks maybe be part of the easing of restrictions, mighten it? A virologist working at one of the leading univerities in the world might, just might, have a more educated opinion than most, mighten they?

    None of which should distract from my bafflement of the mask wearers passing outside of my house.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    Especially on the BBC.
    Very good...

  37. #87
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    Looks like any announcement won't be made till Sunday now. Can't say I'm massively surprised as doubt they would want to make any changes prior to the bank holiday weekend.

  38. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alansmithee View Post
    I like fine dining but part of what you pay for is the experience, social distancing and face-masks does not help with that...
    To say the VERY least!

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald Genta View Post
    Looks like any announcement won't be made till Sunday now. Can't say I'm massively surprised as doubt they would want to make any changes prior to the bank holiday weekend.
    Aren't they legally obliged to make some sort of decision/statement on the 7th?

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  39. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    Especially on the BBC.
    Not just me then, BBC have gone down in my estimation during this, seems they will give any one
    who fancies a bit of air time the access to give their ‘expert’ view.
    The other thing that rather annoyed me was the constant you aren’t going to meet your 100,000 test target all the time
    and then 2 days before when it looked like they would they went quiet.
    And now it’s there were only xxxx at the weekend not 100,000, I could have told them it would be less at the weekend plus heard the defence secretary this morning saying that 25% of the people who booked tests at the weekend didn’t turn up.

  40. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by snowman View Post

    Aren't they legally obliged to make some sort of decision/statement on the 7th?

    M
    7th they have to decide to extend or amend the official lockdown measures, which I guess they will, then
    Sunday you will get the official roadmap for easing the lockdown but not sure you will get any definite
    dates for it unless they are 100% sure the 5 criteria have been met, the last 2 are very much the governmentís
    view not a statistic.

  41. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamaster73 View Post
    Especially on the BBC.
    24 hour speculation

  42. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Dee View Post
    Not taking anyone's word, just offering what I've seen, which is what a lot of those here are doing, aren't they?
    This is, after all, the lockdown easing thread, isn't it? The wearing of masks maybe be part of the easing of restrictions, mighten it? A virologist working at one of the leading univerities in the world might, just might, have a more educated opinion than most, mighten they?

    None of which should distract from my bafflement of the mask wearers passing outside of my house.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Very good...
    How about the 'more educated opinion' of French Nobel prize winning scientist Luc Montagnier who co-discovered HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus)?

    The thing is there are lots of opinions out there, many by very respected scientists and researchers. And many are probably wrong.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  43. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by TBKBABAB View Post
    Not just me then, BBC have gone down in my estimation during this, seems they will give any one
    who fancies a bit of air time the access to give their Ďexpertí view.
    The other thing that rather annoyed me was the constant you arenít going to meet your 100,000 test target all the time
    and then 2 days before when it looked like they would they went quiet.
    And now itís there were only xxxx at the weekend not 100,000, I could have told them it would be less at the weekend plus heard the defence secretary this morning saying that 25% of the people who booked tests at the weekend didnít turn up.
    Hardly surprising from the BBC tbh.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  44. #94
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    I`ve watches the BBBC presentation of Covid 19 news throughout and apart from a couple of cringeworthy moments I think their coverage has been fair. The virologist from Cambridge Uni has been on a few times, he speaks with authority as would be expected from someone who's an expert. Remember, these guys are open to peer review and the one thing academics, professors and specialists don't like is having their expert view discredited by their peers. On that basis I`m inclined to believe him.

    As for the testing deadline, there was an element of 'accentuating the positive' inasmuch as the 122K tests included test kits sent out that day rather than completed tests. I`ll forgive this, the object was to demonstrate the capability to carry out 100.000 tests per day and I`ll accept that. The logistics of ensuring this figure happens every day is another challenge.

  45. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Dee View Post
    What I find baffling is seeing people walk pass my house in masks when there's no other people within 100 yards of them.
    Could easily be coming from/being on the way to a situation of close proximity to other people, is that difficult to comprehend?

  46. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrSmith View Post
    Could easily be coming from/being on the way to a situation of close proximity to other people, is that difficult to comprehend?
    Is it equally not difficult to comprehend that the OP probably knows the immediate vicinity of his house?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Iíve been reading that 2m will become 1m soon as a practical way out of lockdown and also that in the workplace you canít hotdesk or share equipment but wonít have to observe 2m. I think again, avoiding the contact transfer is the key but Iím not sure how that will go down with those who want a strict 2m bubble.
    Pleased that I don't work in an office,
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

  48. #98
    Master
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    wow,just went to the petrol station its like London rush hour on the roads.

  49. #99
    Grand Master number2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    What I find baffling is that people are willing to take the word of anyone they see on TV as gospel, without doing any other research.
    Yes indeed.
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

  50. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Is it equally not difficult to comprehend that the OP probably knows the immediate vicinity of his house?
    He obviously knows it more intimately than I, I just assume from looking out my window that the rest of London is on the whole densely populated with quite a few people moving around.

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