Reply With QuoteThe governments rich Tory donors won't want lockdown going on much longer
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So following in from my last thread last month regarding the above, what do people think will happen this Thursday? Do you think lockdown will stay as is, or some sort of easing? W
What could that easing entail?
Thanks
The governments rich Tory donors won't want lockdown going on much longer
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How can we ease lockdown when we are seeing 600+ deaths and 5000+ new cases per day? We locked down when deaths were in double figures so how are we in a better place now to consider it? I'd love for this to end btw, just can't get my head round what the end goal looks like.
Given the outbreak started from one infected person, I am baffled as to how the lockdown cannot be extended with 5 - 6,000 new cases daily. To not do so though in some form is economic suicide; it is certainly a wicked problem.
I am not sure the public is ready for lockdown to end. "The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-opinium-poll
I think the lockdown with remain in place but maybe a few more businesses allowed to reopen if they can implement social distancing. I think if you can work from home you will be required/asked to for a while longer yet.
Other countries are easing lockdowns but moving more from stricter lockdowns to where we are now.
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I personally think there will be some easing, but only in terms of re-classifying certain businesses and activities as being "essential", so that they can re-open.
Opening civic amenity sites (or Recycling Centres if you prefer) would be one example that springs immediately to mind.
Currently not specified but perfectly able to be undertaken within social distancing.
I wont be going anywhere whatever they do,people still have it and are passing it on.
it is therefore a gamble whether you will get it then if you live or die.
most on this site I expect like me are in the vulnerable group either by age or health.
Out walking yesterday on Anglezarke Moor near Chorley I thought lockdown had been called off without me knowing.
All the car parking spaces were full and the usual popular walking routes were busy.
They weren't regular walkers either.
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Sat at home on full pay I am happy for lockdown to continue till end of May.
Some businesses need to reopen with special constraints.
I think there will be a degree of easing (what that is I dont know) to see what impact it has on number of cases / deaths and reasses in a couple of weeks. I have noticed an awful lot more people out and about when walking over the last couple of days and I've noticed a number of people being less careful in supermarkets etc so I think people are doing to relax their interpretation of lockdown anyway.
Get the gyms open with safe distancing rules applied. The numbers of people out walking or running or on bikes has multiplied many times. At least if most of them were back in their gyms there would be less people out and about and I could get back to my peace and quiet whilst walkingOriginally Posted by RD200
With the figures still as they are I can't see lock down ending anytime soon.
Watching the news I know a few council waste sites have opened which is fair enough and there may be some sort of business easing but we'll have to wait and see.
I can't honestly see kids going back to school until the new autumn term now.
Cheers,
Neil.
I’m sure we’ll see a few more business types able to open but we need to remain in lockdown. I’m hearing whispers that I’ll be WFH for a minimum of another six months and likely for the foreseeable future.
Someone in the know told me primary schools will open after half term. Hopefully shops will start to open applying social distancing and mask wearing. Perhaps the vulnerable will need to isolate for a while yet and where home working is possible this will be maintained of course. As long as we don't overwhelm the NHS all is fine - some people seem to think the aim is eradication but that's only going to happen with a vaccine. So its make the best of things until then so we don't get in a situation where one demographic is losing their economic future in order to save a demographic best placed to weather financial malaise and who in all probability won't be paying it back either.
I expect to work at home for at least another month and even when I go back to work - I expect to work at home more than I'm in the office.
Having said that - when stuff reopens I expect certain businesses still to suffer - I like fine dining but part of what you pay for is the experience, social distancing and face-masks does not help with that...
I think they will probably open up the brothels but still insist on social distancing.
Might have to wait a while for that threesome.
This for me too.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Good idea. The 2 meter rule doesn't seem to apply to cyclists puffing and panting as they go past right next to the footpath.Get the gyms open with safe distancing rules applied. The numbers of people out walking or running or on bikes has multiplied many times. At least if most of them were back in their gyms there would be less people out and about and I could get back to my peace and quiet whilst walking
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
From what I have seen locally, since the government announced it was over the peak, every man and his dog seems to have been out and about.
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Here, primary schools will open on Monday 11th. Logistic nightmare for everybody: you can't house all pupils at the same time in the same building. Use of toilets etc is not allowed. Personally, I see this as a social experiment.
Just in: In Denmark, the schools reopened mid April. The R-factor in Denmark has risen since then from 0.6 to 0.9.
Lockdown hasn't been very strict here: shops remained open, hardware stores, building supplies and garden centers remained open but with rules about maintaining distance and a limited amount of customers inside. Kids are allowed to go out for sports: soccer training for pupils has started again, but the use of locker rooms and showers isn't allowed. TeamNL athletes are allowed to start training again (with 5ft distance)
Weird thing is that those 'beauty doctors' injecting botox are allowed to re-open shop, but barbers have to remain closed. Same goes for bars, restaurants etc: closed. Hotels are open and are allowed to serve breakfast, lunch and dinner to their guests...
And this week should have been the week of Zandvoort hosting the F1 circus!
Last edited by thieuster; 3rd May 2020 at 14:55.
Exactly what I saw yesterday when I went out for a cycle. Everyone out and about as 'over the peak' (if you trust that) seems to somehow mean 'it's over, back to normal guys'.
People who are clearly not from the same household all hanging out and going for group rides. Superbikes redlining too which is particularly selfish. Typically the superbike boys weren't in full kit and most wearing Nike airs with tracksuit bottoms.
What's open and what isn't open is a bit of a red herring. Enforce mandatory mask wearing when outside, practice social distancing and that will hammer the R0 figure downwards anyway. Look at Asia vs Europe and North America. one major differentiator is the widespread wearing of face masks to minimise transmitting to others (yes I know many mask wearers are stupid and thinks it protects them but as long as they wear the mask never mind).
Wearing masks is a very hot topic here: our Dutch CDC claims that wearing a mask will not help. Guess what, in a 2008 article, the same CDC claimed that every form of face mask helps. Even wearing a scarf for your mouth should help. When asked by journalists, the Dutch CDC keeps quiet.
In years to come, scientists and journalists will have a lifelong job sorting out and analyzing the decisions made during these months!
M.
Last edited by thieuster; 3rd May 2020 at 15:10.
Why do you think many of us are unhealthy?
I’m seeing a mixture of people out and about. There are clearly those that remain scared witless about it...I still see [and think WTF about] couples with face-masks and latex gloves in their own car driving around. I definitely also notice less mask/latex glove wearers in supermarkets, so it looks like some people’s anxiety is receding a bit.
My job has meant I’ve been in and out of lockdown and in situations where it is simply impossible to maintain social distancing and reliable infection control like washing hands. Happy to abide by the governments rules but, throughout this period, I’ve felt pretty relaxed about the whole thing and feel no anxiety about catching coronavirus. I can imagine those who have been in proper lockdown for the last 6 weeks may have a different outlook and have developed some kind of phobia about the outside world.
I think until now the government has, by necessity, socially engineered messages to make sure lockdown is effective. Originally, we were told that you’d have to be within 2m of an infected person for 15 minutes stand a statistical chance of catching a virus. Judging by people’s behaviour out and about (people swerving on the footpath to stay about 5m away from you when you’d pass in about 5 seconds and the policy in supermarkets, we’ve definitely taken this further than the original message. I still think the biggest problem is touching things rather than aerosol transmission and I don’t think masks help that much...but I suspect they will play a big part in the rule based social engineering to come to entice the population to feel safe.
I’ve actually been surprised about how our modern society is quite obedient in all of this. I think we are heading into a new era where people don’t mind authoritarian governments, loss of privacy, tracking individuals etc.
The original policy was to ‘flatten the curve’ and make sure ICU bed and ventilator numbers exceeded the requirements. I think a lot of people have changed their expectation and now hope to stay in lockdown until coronavirus doesn’t exist any more.
We can't stay in lockdown forever.....the economy will collapse and we will all turn into Morlocks. There will be a gradual easing over a period of weeks/months as different phases are initiated. Various businesses will be allowed to open again as long as initially social distancing is still adhered to. Pubs and restaurants? Difficult to say in my opinion. The Spanish are, in phases, opening up these businesses but only to something like 30% capacity and also restricting certain times to older people only. Will any one restaurant find it economically viable to open if they can only use 30% of their capacity? Who knows.
I reckon schools will open at least after May half term,maybe before,but not all at once. Maybe something like staggered days e.g. for a comprehensive years 7&8 Mon & Tues, years 9-11 Wed-Fri??
Travel will slowly return but probably not to the same peak as it was and this will also depend on conditions. For instance,I suspect that businesses will not feel like they have to send people all round the world to the same extent now and also ,until such time as there is no rule to isolate new arrivals into a country, then there won't be much point to holiday/business flights.
At the end of the day the world will turn and everybody will just get on with their daily business.
Interestingly my dad was just telling me about 1968 when my parents were married. That was when the Asian or Hong Kong Flu pandemic struck. There were about 80,000 deaths in the U.K. There was no lockdown,everybody carried on exactly as normal and the world returned to normal. The point is not how things might have turned out if the same sort of restrictions as we are seeing now had been carried out in 1968 but that,however terrible,pandemics happen and everything eventually carries on as before.
Do masks work OK (can you breathe) when worn whilst exercising? Anyone tried?
Having worn full respirators in the past and more recently face masks, I would have zero faith that a face mask on its own provides individual protection against a virus in aerosol form. I suspect if an infected person is coughing or sneezing, they may help to prevent the spread of the aerosol “cloud” around them.
I think the original WHO message that they are unnecessary amongst general population is correct and that hand washing plays a much bigger part in reducing transmission. I think we will, however, see governments mandate face-masks as part of social engineering though.
I run on a footpath that runs next to a stream and they have proved great for not breathing in midges/flies when you suddenly hit a big cloud of them at this time of year. Trying to save my supply for when I expect them to become compulsory on public transport in the near future!
Cheers Christian
Ooohhhh, I don’t know....maybe the trend for XXXL jackets and size 7 shoes in sales corner?
EITHER by age or health.
have we many 20 or even 30 year old on site?
As much as anything I dont trust the general public to keep the distance let alone anything else,I had a woman jog past me this week very close and breathing heavy.
Joking aside - they never closed - it's well documented how sex workers have carried on through this crisis.
The one near me has prob never been busier or maybe it hasn't as no one can stop by on their way to/from work
It’s just age then.
We’ll take your word for it.
I work for a company that sells surgical mask, one of 3 that received the government stock to supply dentists with, I believe the reason they haven’t said “wear masks now” is simply because there is no stock of them.
We all know the science says they won’t protect the wearer but they do reduce the spread.
I reckon your final point is spot on and largely explains why the UK figures are where they are imho.
Get the gyms open with safe distancing rules applied. The numbers of people out walking or running or on bikes has multiplied many times. At least if most of them were back in their gyms there would be less people out and about and I could get back to my peace and quiet whilst walkingcouldn't agree more.
When you see them in
'brand new meant for the Mediterranean holiday' trainers you know walking is alien to them.
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Think it was about 30,000 and even with better vaccines and advances in medical science in general the current average for flu deaths in the U.K. is about 10,000.
Last edited by TBKBABAB; 3rd May 2020 at 16:50.
It's getting busier outside, more places opening and more people going out for longer, went past B&Q today and the queue was around the car park, same with other places, folk just want out and about, and in another month i fear the country will be changed permanently, hence the panic about lifting the restrictions.
I just think that most of the people in the country don't really know how to self isolate, we appear to see someone driving somewhere as a huge breach, but openly see folk in superstores just bimbling around, as long as they're 2 metres apart in teh queue to get in then that's ok, same with PPE, ill fitting or fitted facemasks, wearing of gloves, but no mitigation for transfer of contamination and so on, i've done a few trials in my life where you've had to focus on clean/dirty lines and transfer of contaminants, none of that seems to be understood as folk see being 2 metres away as the saviour, and that bunch of bananas they bought that someone may have coughed on or handled 10 minutes before can be picked up and taken home without issue.
Realistically i think that they've knocked the curve down enough that the NHS can cope with the pandemic, if covid 19 can be caught multiple times, then it also causes issues for eradicating this virus, hence why i think the UK has put its eggs all in the vaccine basket
Ireland’s road map for coming out of lockdown https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0501/11...d-map-details/
They did open in Manchester, apparently.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ester-52515342
It would seem like something that could be managed but obviously on day 1, there'll be massive queues and people getting out of their cars to walk in with stuff.
Too right.
Amazing how many people can see foot high arrows on the floor and observe the prescribed route through my local Tesco. Mind you, I think some shops are probably letting too many people in at one time too, which doesn't help.
Can’t imagine it will look much different for us. Once one roadmap nearby is set, I’d doubt another government would stray much from the neighbouring one for fear of getting it wrong and being open to the criticism of “Ireland got it right, why did you choose a the wrong path”.
It’s certainly busier around N. London. The moment that Joe public hear the idea that the lockdown may be eased some will flock out in the belief that at the flick of a switch the danger is passed.
Exactly this. It’s apparent in this thread that people are mostly concerned by the 2m rule. The chance of that woman jogging by you for 2 seconds transmitting a virus or person going backwards against the arrows in Tesco is minimal risk compared to cross contamination of objects. When this crisis started, the main message was wash your hands and the distancing statistic was 2m for 15 mins., yet everyone seems to be hung up on the permanent 2m bubble.
I agree. As has been said, many people are already unilaterally relaxing their lockdown. Any official easing will be difficult to manage. But then again, there will have to be some (probably very long) transition period before we eventually get back to normal (fingers crossed).
Seems reasonable to be overcautious especially when that's pretty easy to achieve at present. Relaxation of the lockdown will be the test because the more people out and about or working, etc., the more difficult distancing becomes.
Friend from the pub (remember them??) had COVID and hearing his harrowing hospital story was very salutary.
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