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Unfortunately 'common sense' is not generally very 'common'.Originally Posted by dkpw
So what happens in (let's pick Yorkshire as a test case) when the "common sense" of the British people is allowed full rein:
- The coastguards in N. Yorks and Humberside have to go out and rescue people on kayaks, jet skis and wind kites.
- A cretin parks on yellow hatchings in front of a lifeboat station
- Four men are arrested for attacking sheep
- The M1 Southbound becomes gridlocked
- Bikers swarm in groups to Masham and other villages, in greater numbers than on a bank holiday
- Police fine a group of 8 people "wild camping" by a roadside in the Dales
Second wave anyone?
Unfortunately 'common sense' is not generally very 'common'.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
In the immortal words of Kenneth Wolstenholme "they think it's all over"
at a local supermarket, no queuing outside, no social distancing inside, and only me in a ppe mask, second wave - on your marks - get set,,,
Last edited by number2; 18th May 2020 at 17:47.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
You will always get idiots, wouldn’t surprise me if the scientific advise was let the idiots go out more they are less
likely to spread it if they are outside, otherwise they are going to sneak round to each other’s places to party
and then they will all get it and spread it and push R up.
The Department for Education’s own chief scientific adviser stunned MPs by revealing he had not made an assessment of plans to reopen English schools amid the Covid-19 crisis.
Osama Rahman suggested to the Commons science and technology committee that he had not personally assessed how the proposal to restart classes for primary pupils could be implemented effectively.
He added that the decision to push for a June 1 reopening timetable was not a decision made by the DfE, but by the cabinet on the advice of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage).
Rahman also surprised the committee by suggesting that Public Health England had not yet approved new guidance on the June 1 reopening proposals, describing it as a “first draft”.
In evidence to the MPs, he further admitted he did not know how many under-18s had died from the virus, and declared that children could “possibly” become vectors for transmission under the government plans.
When asked by Labour MP Zara Sultana what assessment he had made on how effectively the new guidance could be implemented, the DfE’s chief scientific adviser replied: “I haven’t.”So not knowing a statistic is somehow a statistic in itself to you? Lol.
You said 'Given that the government are rather busy at the moment, why would we expect them to learn every statistic every day' but the 'they' (in your '... they just asking spurious questions in the hope they can catch someone out rather than seeking information?') are the Commons science and technology committee. So are they not part of the same government - you know, the 'they' who are rather busy and for whom the figures are probably available?
R
Ignorance breeds Fear. Fear breeds Hatred. Hatred breeds Ignorance. Break the chain.
This paper has a better analysis across European countries https://voxeu.org/article/excess-mor...id-19-pandemic
In addition to the analysis done by the FT, the Economist also tracks excess mortality and updates a tracker https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries
Interesting but as the first paper says it shouldn’t be down to journalists to try and work out comparisons from figures which are published in different ways by different countries and isn’t something I would rely on, and it also says at the end you really should look at this later and over a longer period of time.
Last edited by TBKBABAB; 18th May 2020 at 21:39.
That’s ok I’m not interested since you never wanted to discuss it earlier.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Do you mean countries like Germany, New Zealand, Finland, Austrlia, Ireland..?
To be honest it doesn't matter much, because whoever you compare us to we come off pretty badly, even in some ways against the US when you take into account overall deaths as a percentage of population. So to have done even worse than Trump is quite an accomplishment for Boris and his gang.
So clever my foot fell off.
I think you know which countries I was referring to.
Anyway in this chart the U.K. is doing rather better than quite a few.
You may find the part referring to ‘an axe to grind’ somewhat familiar.
No-one actually knows given discrepancies in consistency of, and quality of reporting. Nor are the numbers in any case a direct reflection of any government's competence in handling the pandemic, given factors such as: prevalence of obesity, population density, cultural factors, age demographics, quality of infection handling in care homes (they aren't necessarily run by national governments, certainly they aren't here). Even the climate plays a part, according to a virologist I heard on 5 Live yesterday. So does the degree of compliance with the restrictive measures put in place.
The figures can be highly convenient of course for people hoping to grind an axe, depending on the way they're interpreted. Here's a set of information from a few days ago:
Interesting that the Swedes are doing relatively well, even better than the UK on this measure.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
I don't think that statistic bolsters your argument. Death per million 589.91, let's call it 590. Cases per million. 3685. 16% or 1 in 6 of cases result in death.
Ireland has 4968 cases per million. 317.91, again let's say 318, deaths per million. That's 6.4% 9f cases result in death. Or 1 in 16.
I don't know about you but I know which odds I'd prefer.
I honestly don’t know why people keep citing cases per million or whatever, when we don’t know how many cases are out there.
It’s meaningless.
To be honest I only posted the chart as an example that figures can be used to show different views in response to TFBs post.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Agree with this. Deaths per million and increase over average deaths for 5 year period seem more reliable.
I used cases per million as that was the statistic shown.
Me neither, especially when they quote older stats that have already been shown to be out of date and which make the UK look better than it is. The UKs handling of this has been an unmitigated shambles yet people still defened the Gov, baffling. Why don't people expect more of their leaders?
"Sets itself low targets, and consistently fails to meet them" comes to mind
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
Yesterday's ONS report added 10k care home deaths to the total, so now at 44k and rising.
How many of these deaths were avoidable? I suppose we'll never know for certain but the time for hiding behind excuses is surely over.
There is a fundamental statistical problem here - selection bias. Whilst we know that Ireland has tested around 5% of the population and the UK around 3.8% of the population, we don't know open what basis either country selected the test subjects. Friends who think they have had it weren't tested and both recovered. My mother's 91-year old husband was taken to hospital last week with fever and respiratory problems, and they tested him twice, with him fortunately testing negative both times. He's had respiratory problems at least 15 years and a fever is a normal response to a wide range of infections.
My fit and healthy 80-year old mother, despite being in the same household, wasn't tested. It seems that they only test people wjho might die very soon; indeed a friend's infirm 81-year old father tested positive but the results only came back 6 hours after he died.
The trouble is simply that we don't know how many people have had it. The official stats say 246,000, but given deaths of 34,000, I'd guess the real number of cases is probably 3.5m to 10m, based on a probable fatality rate of under 1%.
Until there is widespread infection AND antibody testing, we don't know how many have had it, how many have it, or what the fatality rate is.
Because to admit that the Government and leadership is incompetent, is to admit that they may have got other important national issues wrong and may not be fit to work our way through the next few critical years.
Cheers..
Jase
For example -
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
"....other important national issues...." Hmmmm... I wonder.......
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
That was my point really. Plucking at the statistic that shows the UK in a good light (cases per million) doesn't make sense if the overall death per million figure is higher.
In regards to selection criteria is key workers and carers with symptoms plus hospital admissions. So not all recorded cases will be hospital cases I'd imagine.
If it was the case that the Irish figure was only hospitalised cases. Then of course the percentage of infections/cases to death ratio would go up.
I think the overall increase in deaths per million will be higher in the UK than Ireland come the end of the pandemic. That figure will show how well a country coped overall.
With regard to the different curves between London and elsewhere, you might be of the view that we all went into lockdown together. In fact I was in London on the 12th and 13th of March and it was all but deserted. Shops, cafes, bars, all empty or very quiet. Pavements almost empty. Back in Dorset on the 13th it was business as usual. This must have affected the transmission/infection rate at that point.
Very true that but at the end of the day, it's just democracy. Facts seem to have no part to play in what we are doing.For example -
I wonder what people think of Matt Hancock's blatant lying about the number of tests carried out?
The promise (shared on gov.uk accounts) was that 100K people per day would be being tested by the end of April.
In fact, that target has never been met, and the number of people tested has been quite stagnant at around 70K per day:
EYR6B1iXYAAX5o3 by Simon Gee, on Flickr
Yet Hancock loudly claimed "success" on 30th April, and continues to do so.
So how can we believe him now when he tells us that more than 20K people have been recruited for TTI. Does anyone see the problem here?
On the 10th May Boris gave his Address To The Nation, in which he told us: '... we are testing literally hundreds of thousands of people every day.'Very true that but at the end of the day, it's just democracy. Facts seem to have no part to play in what we are doing.
I wonder what people think of Matt Hancock's blatant lying about the number of tests carried out?
The promise (shared on gov.uk accounts) was that 100K people per day would be being tested by the end of April.
In fact, that target has never been met, and the number of people tested has been quite stagnant at around 70K per day:
Yet Hancock loudly claimed "success" on 30th April, and continues to do so.
So how can we believe him now when he tells us that more than 20K people have been recruited for TTI. Does anyone see the problem here?
R
Ignorance breeds Fear. Fear breeds Hatred. Hatred breeds Ignorance. Break the chain.
My understanding was that the 100,000 figure was a target not a promise. How can anyone promise something like that? It looked to me that he set the target to put a rocket under PHE and the bureaucrats within the NHS to get them to work together with Universities and private sector labs to try and increase the levels of testing being undertaken which was up until then pathetic. The end result whether it was 80,000 or 100,000 was an outstanding success but I agree that PHE/HMG should just have reported the number of tests actually undertaken.Very true that but at the end of the day, it's just democracy. Facts seem to have no part to play in what we are doing.
I wonder what people think of Matt Hancock's blatant lying about the number of tests carried out?
The promise (shared on gov.uk accounts) was that 100K people per day would be being tested by the end of April.
In fact, that target has never been met, and the number of people tested has been quite stagnant at around 70K per day:
Yet Hancock loudly claimed "success" on 30th April, and continues to do so.
So how can we believe him now when he tells us that more than 20K people have been recruited for TTI. Does anyone see the problem here?
The fact that you are citing this as an example of failure perhaps explains why Ministers and others feel that they cannot be straight with us.
Read it again. Its not our fault he picks a target and the lies about not meeting it. Yes, having a BHAG is a good way to motivate people if you provide the leadership and support needed to give them a chance of meeting it, however, lying has never proven to be a motivator for good.
You appear to be asserting it is the publics fault that he is lying because we recognise when he is lying.
Why?
Cases in this case (no pun or confusion intended) means people who have been admitted to hospital (or otherwise 100% confirmed with the virus, but testing is still very low elsewhere) with Covid, not people who have (or may have or have not) been infected with it.
There will be more infected per million, but many will barely notice.
Well, where Boris is concerned I start from the basis that whatever he says is a lie and work backwards (this isn't a political viewpoint, but a personal one, about him as a human being), but did he REALLY say that or "Hundreds and Thousands"?
ETA - Yes, he did say "So that – all told - we are testing literally hundreds of thousands of people every day", although to be fair, in context, he may have meant 'eventually', not that we would be there imminently.
M
Last edited by snowman; 19th May 2020 at 16:00.
Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
You and I may disagree about the methodology but it is nonsense to accuse him of lying. According to PHE, the methodology of how tests are counted has not changed:
Professor John Newton of PHE has rejected claims that the Government has changed the way it counts tests, following the HSJ report earlier today, saying there has been "no change". "As we have developed new ways of delivering tests, we have taken advice in how they are counted. The vast majority are counted when they are undertaken in labs, but any test outside the programme they are counted when they leave - that is tests that are mailed out. That is the way they are counted, have always been counted, and were advised to count them"
Unless you are accusing Newton of lying also, Hancock did not change the goalposts just to meet a target.
Moan moan moan.........some ad folks making a full-time hobby out of it, no doubt inspired by their political agenda.
I really could not be bothered posting bloody graphs to make a point ion a watch forum, some of you really do need to get a life. It's gone way beyond debate, it's political hand-wringing at every juncture.
Just to add to the moaning, I met with a customer yesterday in a large North London hospital, ( operating Theatres) we obviously talked about the Covid crisis, he said on one hand there seems to be a unlimited cheque book for Procurment as long as you can link it to Coronavirus however tenuously, but they are still short of some ppe, they have loads of gowns, but are struggling with getting masks and are still recleaning single use visors with disinfectant dips.
Cheers..
Jase
Oh look at you moaning about moaningYou are a gift for inpet politicians. Might be useful to look up the meaning of moaning too.
Oh look at you moaning about moaning
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
Fully agree Paul and i stated further back in this thread that people are being negative just for the sake of it.
My father always said if you can do a better job then apply for it...how many of these whingers and moaners have even attepted to get into politics at local level never mind central government.
That's strange, because I talked with a friend in a hospital last week who said they hadn't run out of any PPE. In fact I can't find any confirmed examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE. Odd really.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...show-about-ppe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...riticise-lack/
So again I ask, any documented examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE?
Last edited by oldoakknives; 19th May 2020 at 17:33.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Same fella on April 27th referred to our 'apparent success' in handling the virus, safe hands then.
Still mustn't grumble.
Presumably if your father ever received poor service in a shop, for example, he’d put up with it or become a shopkeeper.
Does everyone working in a hospital know their PPE situation? What would be confirmation for you, another friend saying they’d run out?That's strange, because I talked with a friend in a hospital last week who said they hadn't run out of any PPE. In fact I can't find any confirmed examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE. Odd really.
Fascinating reading.
Just one observation. Are the resident brains trust here suggesting that the high death rates in Spain, Italy, Belgium, UK, US, etc are much higher than say China, Iran because
a) Europe has sort of super strength Covid 19?
b) That those resident in Europe/US are in some way more susceptible to Covid 19 (they lack a Basic immunity)?
c) That European/US health care is inferior to other countries.
d) That the populations of European/US Countries have a higher percentage of more frail/less healthy?
e) That European/US populations lack basic hygiene facilities or knowledge (unable or unwilling to wash their hands for example)?
Or could it actually be that some countries are massively under reporting cases/deaths simply because they are not testing or not putting CV19 as a factor in a persons death and they want score some political points, as if it actually matters.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
No, it’s because the average person plays less golf in Iran and China.
You're mistaking negativity for criticism - people are being critical.
Not everyone wants to be a politician, which doesn't preclude us from being critical of those we pay to do the job.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
Ah so ''documented examples'' as opposed to what Doctors, nurses, care workers, bus drivers etc are saying?That's strange, because I talked with a friend in a hospital last week who said they hadn't run out of any PPE. In fact I can't find any confirmed examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE. Odd really.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...show-about-ppe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...riticise-lack/
So again I ask, any documented examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE?
If you (for example) tell me that a knife is rubbish because it's made from a particular steel - I'll take your word for it for as far as I can tell this is your field of experience, see where I'm going with this?
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
So we cant criticise because it is moaning nor can we criticise unless we are prepared to become a politician. I think I am getting the hang of this. That line from Plato is truer now more than ever with all the tools politicians have at their fingertips.
Never thought I would see the British supporting gross failure by their own government so willingly. Epic apathy.
That’s unfair, 60% of the time they get it right every time.
Have you thoroughly researched stock levels of PPE in every single UK hospital? I mean, every last frigging one of them? Have you? Or are you basing your belief that everything is hunky dory regarding PPE on your mate's say-so because it seems to support some randomly-chosen nuggets from the right wing press?That's strange, because I talked with a friend in a hospital last week who said they hadn't run out of any PPE. In fact I can't find any confirmed examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE. Odd really.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...show-about-ppe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...riticise-lack/
So again I ask, any documented examples of hospitals actually running out of PPE?
Also, nugget boy, he said "… still short of PPE …" not "… running out of PPE…". This would indicate they never had sufficient PPE in the first place.
You seem to be implying some incredible imcompetence or bias by those claiming to be short of PPE. Why? What is your major malfunction over this issue? FFS
Nugget boy?Have you thoroughly researched stock levels of PPE in every single UK hospital? I mean, every last frigging one of them? Have you? Or are you basing your belief that everything is hunky dory regarding PPE on your mate's say-so because it seems to support some randomly-chosen nuggets from the right wing press?
Also, nugget boy, he said "… still short of PPE …" not "… running out of PPE…". This would indicate they never had sufficient PPE in the first place.
You seem to be implying some incredible imcompetence or bias by those claiming to be short of PPE. Why? What is your major malfunction over this issue? FFS
Well I would have replied but that sort of put me off tbh.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
What if I was less than honest about it? You assume I would tell you the truth. Say for example I had another reason to favour one particular steel? See where I'm going with this?
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Yep I get what you're saying indeed that thought had crossed my mind, so are you saying that everyone claiming that PPE is/has been in short supply has an ulterior motive, or that the people reporting these issues have an ulterior motive?
Because that would mean that an awful lot of people have an axe to grind, which then begs the question - why?
FWIW, You and I may not agree on many things but were you to ask advice via the forum regarding property lettings or landlord tenant issues, I'd give it honestly with no agenda.
Stay safe.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
You tell me? Perhaps only those who think there is a problem.......................
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
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