Reply With QuoteThere will be significant rises in tax and NI. These will last for at least 3 years IMO.
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I am sat firmly on the fence for this one, business closed, people on furlough, interest free loans left right and center.
The plus side is the NHS doesn’t seem to have been pushed to breaking point, this is good but what’s the cost, where is all the money coming from? I’m getting paid by the government (tax payer?) to sit at home but when things get back to normal (or new normal) how is the bill going to be paid? Personal tax going up, council tax increase, VAT at 25%?
What are people’s thoughts?
There will be significant rises in tax and NI. These will last for at least 3 years IMO.
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That's the wonderful thing about fiat currency, you just print more. Also the ensuing inflation wipes out some of the debt as long as it's internal. With most of the world in the same boat I suspect that there will be some mutual back room debt cancellation via the IMF or something. Only for the big boys though, you're not going to get 50% chopped off your mortgage or car PCP.
All kind of said tongue in cheek and with many logic holes but I suspect it's going to be some more overly complex version of the above that puts the brake on a global recession.
'George & Dragon.
Unwind with a pint or two in our own virtual pub. Friendly banter and clean jokes please and no politics or religion.'
I suspect that rule will be breached shortly.
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Jim.
Oh yes. Inevitably.Originally Posted by jwg663
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I suspect it will go the way of fiscal stimulus to start with. Potentially with tax reductions, alongside printing money. I'm no expert though :)
I think people are going to lose triple lock old aged pensions mind you.
I've been pondering this very question.
What the government are effectively doing is quantitative easing. They're just printing money, which devalues the currency.
But if it devalues sterling against every other currency and every other nation busily are doing the same to their own currencies then relatively nothing changes.
Kinda like sitting in reverse on the motorway, it's dangerous, hardly advisable. But then you look out the window and the other cars are going backwards at the same rate as you are.
Posted elsewhere but this Economist article covers the available options, nations in the 'developed world' can't really go the debt jubilee route unless they want to fall down the ranks to 'developing' status, the least worst outcomes mainly depend on clear eyed, sensible, considered choices by Governments tempered by empathy and free of ideological bias,
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...article-link-1
I think people are going to lose triple lock old aged pensions mind you.
Old people vote. They will not vote for people who cut their pensions.
Turkeys voting for Xmas and all that.
Where I think the government can increase taxation will be 40% tax payers and reducing pension tax relief. There is also the billions the YK will not be sending to Brussels, but thats another topic.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
maybe that's the covid plan, let it get rid of the old first they then won't be there to vote , that's one problem gone, after all they are constantly being told they are a drain on resources and the NHS. but don't let it stop there let it also take the infirm and obese etc another strain on resources gone. it's almost as if this virus was designed for a certain purpose.
your final point had crossed my mind.
Perhaps it's mother nature's way of fighting back the overpopulation crisis? https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...-of-the-Humans
R
Ignorance breeds Fear. Fear breeds Hatred. Hatred breeds Ignorance. Break the chain.
Then wouldn't mother nature get rid of more of the younger ones that are producing more humans rather than the oldies who don't? With the exception of the endlessly fertile Rolling Stones of course.
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I don't think UK state pension stands up very well against EU pensions as it is.
Given that we are supposed to be one of the richest nations in the world surely they should go up.
Within our power to fix if we become more responsible, respectful of nature and less acquisitive. Perhaps.
I’d like that too, but unfortunately we’re so tied to oil incomes and funding the economy through buying stuff that it will be difficult to achieve. How do we break that cycle?
Well covids kinda stuck a spoke in the wheel of the current cycle, given everyone pause for thought, some time for reflection, a chance to smell clean air, maybe things will go back to a slightly different normal, less flying, fewer cars, less mindless consumption.
This has presented an opportunity for us to enact real far reaching change, all comes down to better choices.
I've been thinking of the fairest way to pay for this. Have to be careful we tax appropriately- can't expect the young to pick up the tab but also we have to make sure we don't tax the most affected groups in a way that lowers quality of life materially.
So I was thinking the government could apply a one off levy of 5% taken from private pension pots and SIPPS worth at least £250k regardless of whether they are being taken already or of the investor has not yet reached pension age. Capped at maybe £25k per person but whatever the amount is that person gets it added back to their tax free allowance.
If you have a pension pot at that amount or more then you can afford a one off charge (I'd happily do it as it's just like one poor year in terms of impact on fund value) and for the vast majority of cases the impact will be negligible as the fund is spread across many years so the impact will be too. IMHO much better than applying a percentage on current earnings as that causes disparities.
The irony of course is that a good majority of those people you speak of would not have received one penny of support throughout the crisis but end up losing 25k from the pension pot....seems fair
This ^. Plus the fact that many people who have saved into their pension pots for decades in order to not not rely on / or drain the state, will have recently seen those pots given a bit of a hammering anyway lately.
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Yeah, can't agree with that idea. Raid the pension funds? Sounds more like legalised theft.
The NHS has been able to manage but at what cost? Routine operations have been cancelled to free up beds and other services cut back, these problems still exist so will then need to be addressed, and the nock on effect from this maybe just as bad or potentially worse than Covid.
The NHS has been underfunded for years but I suspect nothing will change as they managed to cope with demand so why do they need more investment....
The cost of all of the measures will need to be covered, it wouldn't surprise me to see the lower tax limit fall, and VAT to increase.
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I think you maybe right there, who knows what the effect of lockdown will have on some people who’ve been sat on symptoms for the past 7 plus weeks?
It may well prove that that alone plus the accumulative effect of cancelled routine appointments might be worse for the NHS than the virus had in the first place.
I suspect that much of this will be kicked into the long grass and left to future generations to fund - as was WW2.
In respect to existing pensions, I doubt they will be touched. It would be legalised theft, however tax relief on contributions might change (although it’s already been hit pretty hard in the last 10 years, with the reductions in LTA and contributions). As for pensions in other countries - those countries are bust. Look at the problems in France, Greece, Italy, etc - unsustainable.
Regarding the NHS, the simple fact is no matter how much we throw at it, it will never be enough. People will continue to expect the latest and best treatments irrespective of cost. What is a root and branch review of what the state should be expected to provide vs what could/should be covered by individual medical insurance.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Would anyone be bold enough to remove the triple lock for pensioners? It needs to happen, especially if the economy tanks anyway.
I reckon increased tax on discretionary spending, so booze, flight duty, VAT and also an increased higher rate income tax. Perhaps a clampdown on tax havens, especially if those non-doms are seeking bailouts of their companies.
I’d definitely support massively increased taxes on alcohol and unhealthy food and find some way to incentivise proper exercise. I think the statistics say nearly 40% of adults take no exercise or sports at all, more than 80% of adults don’t achieve the recommended amount of aerobic activity, 20% drink more than the recommended weekly amount, a staggering 36% are overweight and 29% of the population is obese. These self-induced underlying health issues are undoubtedly a factor in the severity of the situation we find ourselves in. We should target this like we did smoking.
Last edited by Christian; 3rd May 2020 at 23:42.
Ok so someone 'in the know' (I cannot divulge the source so mock this all you want as I won't bite) has told me that some of the current thinking in government is around abolishing employee NI and having a tax rate that incorporates it. The average working taxpayer won't notice a thing but of course now wealthier pensioners will as they will have a higher tax percentage to pay. Will be interesting to see how well thay would go with the Tory traditional blue rinse brigade voters.
Maybe a bit too political for the G&D but I think the current lot will weigh up the choice between maintaining the popularist vote against the traditional vote and decide which they need most to be elected again. Traditional tory areas are very unlikely to defect so they will decide that their views don’t matter so much. As a lifelong Conservative voter, until recently, it disgusts me that power can ever be more important than principles but that’s where we’re at.
Interesting stuff Ryan, yes would be interesting how that would go down with older voters
Makes sense to simplify taxation system though can’t see why doing this is needed to increase taxation and pay for corona.
I think the idea is that it enables taxation of wealthier pensioners who don't pay NI whilst minimising tax on those who can't afford it (the young or less wealthy pensioners).
Surely the BOE could just digitally print the money needed to pay for it as everyone will be doing this globally anyway?
Could equally well just increase higher rate tax.
I've heard this mooted before and the reason cited for doing it was to break the link between taxpayers paying NI separately and expecting a state pension in return. NI has always been intrinsically linked to the state pension and therefore if you don't pay NI, just tax in general, there's no "right" to a state pension. Presumably this would be done to transition to a means tested state pension scheme in the future.
I hope to god we don't go down the quantitive easing route. The GBP has taken enough of a hit over the years. We don't want our currency devaluing by even more.
I think whatever happens, millennials should enjoy this period of lockdown. It will be the closest they ever get to experiencing retirement.
Tru dat
This is funny because it’s true.
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