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Thread: Lockdown

  1. #1

    Lockdown

    Hi good morning.

    I know this might seem a stupid question as I guess it’s just guesswork, but does anyone have any idea whether the lockdown we are in now will continue in the same manner past Easter Monday or will things be loosened?

    Just looking for opinions.

    Thanks
    Adam.

  2. #2
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    Based on China, Spain and Italy, we won't be moving for another month.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxyadam View Post
    Hi good morning.

    I know this might seem a stupid question as I guess it’s just guesswork, but does anyone have any idea whether the lockdown we are in now will continue in the same manner past Easter Monday or will things be loosened?

    Just looking for opinions.

    Thanks
    Adam.
    Welcome to Planet Earth - there is no way the lockdown will be lifted by Easter Monday. The latest Imperial modelling calls for rolling 2 month lockdowns with breaks of perhaps a month before another 2 month lockdown.

  4. #4
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    I work in the NHS, and the messages we're getting from NHS England & public health are pretty consistent that this will stay in place for a while yet. They're careful not to put a timescale on it, but I'm reasonably optimistic we'll be out of it by early to mid-Summer so long as the numbers start stacking up. Truth is nobody knows at the moment.

  5. #5
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    Somebody is finding it much easier to spot problem people and their activities. Hopefully, this will happen on a global scale and help to rid this world of the scum who prey on the unfortunate souls who become dependant on their goods!
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/crime/n...osed-1-6592969

  6. #6
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    With the reports of caravans arriving at camping sites and steams of cars turning up at seaside resorts this morning due to the higher temps it can only be a matter of time until we get the more draconian lockdown other EU countries have been subject to. So it'll get worse imo before it gets better.

  7. #7
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    I think after the intial 3 week lockdown there will be another three weeks.

    Any longer and i think there will be civil disobedience as most companies and people cannot survive financially beyond that point.

  8. #8
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    ZERO CHANCE.

    However worryingly people I know in towns are telling me that they are now witnessing people beginning to ignore the lockdown. Like ALOT of people

  9. #9
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Realistically you can expect some easing around first week in June
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  10. #10
    Sometime toward mid to late May is my guess


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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Realistically you can expect some easing around first week in June
    That is my view also fwiw...We've been in lockdown for just over 3 weeks now in Spain, the daily death rates seem to be coming down slightly for a couple of days now but it would be crazy to break off too soon, the Government has just announced lockdown is extended to April 26th, entirely rationally imho...theres' speculation that by Mid May schools may just reopen...The UK didn't lockdown until the 23rd of March, and was a bit 'soft' to begin with... the doubling of deaths is now at 3 days, maybe that will rise, by the end of April, early May you should hit the peak more of a plateau really providing the lockdown has been well observed after which the decline should follow...So an early June cautious 'easing' does fit with the experience here thus far.
    But if the lockdown discipline isn't maintained consistently it cannot be as effective. Though subsequent lesser waves necessitating at the least social distancing measures, perhaps mini area specific lockdowns are entirely possible.
    Last edited by Passenger; 4th April 2020 at 14:07.

  12. #12
    Master Albellisimo's Avatar
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    Be at the very least end of May

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    With the reports of caravans arriving at camping sites and steams of cars turning up at seaside resorts this morning due to the higher temps it can only be a matter of time until we get the more draconian lockdown other EU countries have been subject to. So it'll get worse imo before it gets better.
    Totally agree, living on the coast we see a dramatic increase of footfall with the better weather. Unfortunately I can also see it getting worse before it gets better and definitely not by Easter Monday...

  14. #14
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    I would think about May, with a more serious movement restriction added about Wednesday.


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  15. #15
    Grand Master Mr Curta's Avatar
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    This isn't anywhere near a lockdown, whatever terminology is used by the press. At the moment we have little more than enhanced social distancing in the UK. It's possible that the government will enforce a genuine lockdown but let's hope that it is not needed. Much will depend on public behaviour over the next few days.

    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    The UK didn't lockdown until the 23rd of March, and was a bit 'soft' to begin with...
    It is still unbelievably soft.
    Last edited by Mr Curta; 4th April 2020 at 15:38.
    Don't Panic

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Curta View Post
    This isn't anywhere near a lockdown, whatever terminology is used by the press. At the moment we have little more than enhanced social distancing in the UK. It's possible that the government will enforce a genuine lockdown but let's hope that it is not needed. Much will depend on public behaviour over the next few days.



    It is still unbelievably soft.
    It is indeed, and I'm appreciating the fact that the Govt are being surprisingly non-authoritarian about this whole thing. Generally going with the evidence as it evolves, using least restrictive options & treating us like adults, in fairly stark contrast to the behaviour of some European governments. Time will tell if they've got it right obvs, but they seem to be guided more by science than politics, which is all we can ask for tbh.

  17. #17
    Master steptoe's Avatar
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    My friend and his family live and work in Shanghai said when the lockdown was lifted people still didn't go out.

  18. #18
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    we should be on hard lock down or even marshal law and it should have started at least a month ago,planning should have started in January.

    the only way to beat it is to blitz it by stopping it in its tracks, that means total isolation until vaccines or more testing.

    the government have been weak and lackluster,I acknowledge it is not easy.

    theirs so many people not even obeying the 2m rule let alone anything else,why should the rest of us suffer for them?

    Freedom to disobey common sense is no substitute for living especially when our brave medical staff are dying.


    you can write all of this year off at least.

    be glad if you and loved ones live through it, that will be the only solace for this time.

  19. #19
    Could see an enhanced lockdown soon if numbers still rise, maybe a hard curfew especially with lighter evenings and better weather !

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Jari37 View Post
    It is indeed, and I'm appreciating the fact that the Govt are being surprisingly non-authoritarian about this whole thing. Generally going with the evidence as it evolves, using least restrictive options & treating us like adults, in fairly stark contrast to the behaviour of some European governments. Time will tell if they've got it right obvs, but they seem to be guided more by science than politics, which is all we can ask for tbh.
    I appreciate that the government have been non-authoritarian thus far. I’ve just arrived back from my daily cycle ride having been cooped up all day. I saw groups of people gathered around parked cars on the seafront, chatting away whilst their kids ran around together; clusters of beach huts with their occupants sitting outside, sun bathing and groups of people congregating at various points along the sea front. I get that families are still able to take a walk together for exercise but 8, 9, 10 adults with a handful of kids running around between them? Stupid and irresponsible. I suspect the government will look at the escalating numbers and images of society not acting like adults and put us in proper lockdown soon.

  21. #21
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    Perhaps nature will take over and remove these stupid people from among us.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    That is my view also fwiw...We've been in lockdown for just over 3 weeks now in Spain, the daily death rates seem to be coming down slightly for a couple of days now but it would be crazy to break off too soon, the Government has just announced lockdown is extended to April 26th, entirely rationally imho...theres' speculation that by Mid May schools may just reopen...The UK didn't lockdown until the 23rd of March, and was a bit 'soft' to begin with... the doubling of deaths is now at 3 days, maybe that will rise, by the end of April, early May you should hit the peak more of a plateau really providing the lockdown has been well observed after which the decline should follow...So an early June cautious 'easing' does fit with the experience here thus far.
    But if the lockdown discipline isn't maintained consistently it cannot be as effective. Though subsequent lesser waves necessitating at the least social distancing measures, perhaps mini area specific lockdowns are entirely possible.
    I think opening schools would be problematic, it’s impossible to social distance. Where are you hearing this from?


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  23. #23
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    So we will not be going to Antigua in early June then:-(

  24. #24
    I can’t see schools reopening until September - perhaps August if they ignore ‘normal’ term times. Kids might be relatively unaffected (my youngest has Down’s and a heart condition so sadly doesn’t apply to him) but they’d be the perfect carriers to kill off their grandparent, which the stupid family groups at the seaside clearly haven’t thought about


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  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonah View Post
    Perhaps nature will take over and remove these stupid people from among us.
    If only......

  26. #26
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    There’s various local social groups reporting that ‘holiday makers’ are arriving in North Devon today, totally going against what we’ve been told to do. With people doing things like this we’ll be in lockdown for months on end.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    There’s various local social groups reporting that ‘holiday makers’ are arriving in North Devon today, totally going against what we’ve been told to do. With people doing things like this we’ll be in lockdown for months on end.
    And make no mistake about it many more will die.

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rodder View Post
    I think opening schools would be problematic, it’s impossible to social distance. Where are you hearing this from?


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    As I said it’s speculation, coming from Spanish friends who’re parents, one of whom runs an academy school, I am not convinced...quite possibly it is wishful thinking, in fact my suspicion is that the children may be off right through until September.

  29. #29
    Grand Master Chris_in_the_UK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    As I said it’s speculation, coming from Spanish friends who’re parents, one of whom runs an academy school, I am not convinced...quite possibly it is wishful thinking, in fact my suspicion is that the children may be off right through until September.
    Common sense would be to keep kids away until the end of the summer holiday period (September?).
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmarchitect View Post
    I appreciate that the government have been non-authoritarian thus far. I’ve just arrived back from my daily cycle ride having been cooped up all day. I saw groups of people gathered around parked cars on the seafront, chatting away whilst their kids ran around together; clusters of beach huts with their occupants sitting outside, sun bathing and groups of people congregating at various points along the sea front. I get that families are still able to take a walk together for exercise but 8, 9, 10 adults with a handful of kids running around between them? Stupid and irresponsible. I suspect the government will look at the escalating numbers and images of society not acting like adults and put us in proper lockdown soon.
    Yep may well be - they've proved they will change course if the evidence indicates they should. The Govt should be getting more kudos for this than they do tbh, but people are partisan I suppose. All depends on the curve, and any flattening thereof. I'm hoping (and actually expecting) that the enhanced social distancing phase we're currently in (and which for the most part people are observing well) will do most of the heavy lifting we need in terms of reducing the C19 RO. I'm trusting the 80:20 principle here, so hopefully the extra gains we'd see from a more extreme lockdown won't be required. We'll see I guess.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve27752 View Post
    So we will not be going to Antigua in early June then:-(
    If you can afford a private jet and Antigua lets you in you can.

  32. #32
    Grand Master Andyg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Curta View Post
    This isn't anywhere near a lockdown, whatever terminology is used by the press. At the moment we have little more than enhanced social distancing in the UK. It's possible that the government will enforce a genuine lockdown but let's hope that it is not needed. Much will depend on public behaviour over the next few days.



    It is still unbelievably soft.

    How “harder” would you like it to be? Marshal Law perhaps? A system by which people have to get permission to go outside, curfews, forced to carry photo ID’s, etc?

    What is most ironic is that many of the social distancing problems seem to emanate from those metropolitan ethically morale, elitist cities, who support personal freedom, social responsibility, the EU, etc, etc.

    The really sad thing is that if some of the morons who live in these places force the government to enact tougher rules chances are they will impact everyone. Including those who live out in the countryside and who can walk for miles without seeing another person.

    Yesterday I saw a group of about 10 cyclists (why is it always cyclists!!) huddled together by the side of the road chatting together will one of there party fixed his tyre - beyond stupid.

    Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
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  33. #33
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Given the way people are acting in some of the larger cities it will probably be tightened not relaxed in the foreseeable future.

    Too many "..yeah but, no buts..." who always have an excuse for breaking the recommendations.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  34. #34
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    Why punish to majority because of the behaviour of a minority of selfish idiots.

    Just let the law deal with the idiots, no first warnings, no breaking up groups - punish them, end of and keep a record of their details and if they do it again the punishment should be far harsher.

  35. #35
    Grand Master TheFlyingBanana's Avatar
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    All the Headteachers and Education Leaders I know are absolutely not expecting for schools to re-open until September at the earliest.

    I would be delighted if it were possible to return after May half-term, but very few, if any, think this is likely, and we are planning for home learning support, safeguarding work, Governor meetings etc to continue as they are currently (online and through other means) for the rest of this academic year.
    So clever my foot fell off.

  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by jonah View Post
    Perhaps nature will take over and remove these stupid people from among us.
    Unfortunately not before they take some front-line NHS staff with them...

  37. #37
    Also, can we make it clear that people are referring to

    Martial Law

    as in 'related to war or fighting'

    not Marshal Law (he's a Country and Western singer)

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    Why punish to majority because of the behaviour of a minority of selfish idiots.

    Just let the law deal with the idiots, no first warnings, no breaking up groups - punish them, end of and keep a record of their details and if they do it again the punishment should be far harsher.
    This ^. A hundred fold.

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  39. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by TheFlyingBanana View Post
    All the Headteachers and Education Leaders I know are absolutely not expecting for schools to re-open until September at the earliest.

    I would be delighted if it were possible to return after May half-term, but very few, if any, think this is likely, and we are planning for home learning support, safeguarding work, Governor meetings etc to continue as they are currently (online and through other means) for the rest of this academic year.
    This is the message that my partner was given at the last team meeting, as in ‘be prepared to continue with current methods for the remainder of the year’. I’m impressed by how quickly her department has gotten to grips with the change, particularly remote pastoral care.

  40. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by in_denial View Post
    Also, can we make it clear that people are referring to

    Martial Law

    as in 'related to war or fighting'

    not Marshal Law (he's a Country and Western singer)
    So we're clear then, people are definitely referring to Sammo Hung:


  41. #41
    Grand Master Mr Curta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andyg View Post
    How “harder” would you like it to be? Marshal Law perhaps? A system by which people have to get permission to go outside, curfews, forced to carry photo ID’s, etc?
    Just making the point that this isn't a lockdown unless it's the Carlsberg version. I really, really, hope that it doesn't have to be increased to the levels that I have experienced in Nigeria, Indonesia, Libya, Algeria, Colombia and Venezuela. Many of my colleagues are currently experiencing exactly the conditions that you describe.

    Who is Marshall Law?
    Don't Panic

  42. #42
    Master Alansmithee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Curta View Post
    Just making the point that this isn't a lockdown unless it's the Carlsberg version. I really, really, hope that it doesn't have to be increased to the levels that I have experienced in Nigeria, Indonesia, Libya, Algeria, Colombia and Venezuela. Many of my colleagues are currently experiencing exactly the conditions that you describe.

    Who is Marshall Law?
    Likely a typo and they mean they are enjoying the superhero satire Marshal Law while locked down:


  43. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    Why punish to majority because of the behaviour of a minority of selfish idiots.

    Just let the law deal with the idiots, no first warnings, no breaking up groups - punish them, end of and keep a record of their details and if they do it again the punishment should be far harsher.
    Agreed. The government can tighten up the lock down but in the end people will still flout the rules. More severe punishment for those who do. Community service working a hospital would be sobering

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrushton View Post
    If you can afford a private jet and Antigua lets you in you can.
    Only if I win the Lotto!

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    With the reports of caravans arriving at camping sites and steams of cars turning up at seaside resorts this morning due to the higher temps it can only be a matter of time until we get the more draconian lockdown other EU countries have been subject to. So it'll get worse imo before it gets better.
    As far as I know all campsites should be closed so no one should be turning up at them, we live in our motor home and generally stay on the local to my work small 5 van sites even these were told to close by both the Motorhome & Caravan club and the Caravanning & Camping club. Could have posed a bit of a problem for us but the owners of the site let us stay on as there are slightly different exceptions from the government for those of us with no bricks and mortar to go to.

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alansmithee View Post
    Likely a typo and they mean they are enjoying the superhero satire Marshal Law while locked down:

    He was great, I still have a couple of those comics somewhere.

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